COMPTABILITE NATIONALE A PRIX CONSTANTS ET A PRODUCTIVITE CONSTANTE

The problem of national accounting “at constant prices” is in fact a problem of comparability of time series, as changes in the price structure preclude any direct comparison of economic flows. If such accounts are established they will make it possible directly to compare the same flow at two different times in the economy as a whole, and this without leaving the influence of other flows out of account. This makes it possible both to synthesize and to undertake analytical comparisons. The accounts could then be used for the study of time series, for projections or for structural studies (e.g. the mechanisms underlying the changing pattern of income distrubution). The first part of this report sets out to study the main problems of compiling accounts at constant prices and to examine what conventions should be adopted. The second part of the report considers how productivity gains can be explicitly shown in the national accounts. The proposed study plan restores the symmetry between price and productivity. As in the accounts at constant prices, gap variables are introduced to measure productivity gains. These variables can be interpreted in terms of surplus; the concept of surplus used here, however, is not the one adopted for the accounts in constant prices, but its dual. Setting up an accounting system “at constant productivity” therefore makes it possible to complete the information provided by an accounting system “at constant prices.” These two systems can of course be integrated: this leads to the introduction of the concept of an accounting system “at constant prices and constant productivity.” Such an accounting system makes it possible to show, in the same accounting framework, the respective contributions of price changes and improved productivity to the gains realised by the different economic agents. It therefore gives a complete picture of “transfers” between the agents. At the same time, the data on price and productivity can be integrated with each other.     

U.S. REAL PRODUCT AND REAL FACTOR INPUT, 1929–1967

The objective of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for separating social product and social factor input accounts into price and quantity components. Despite the essential similarity between concepts of real product and real factor input, the measurement of social factor outlay in constant prices is not well established in social accounting practice.
Production accounts are constructed for the United States in current and constant prices, including social product and social factor outlay, for the period 1929–1967. The resulting estimates are applied to the measurement of total factor productivity and the study of the responsiveness of product and factor intensities to price changes.     

APPRAISING THE U.S. OUTPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES FOR GOVERNMENT–WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Output and productivity estimates for U.S. government organizations are a useful management tool, and are of potential value for improving national income accounts. Real gross government product is currently estimated on the basis of labor input data. However, this imparts a downward bias to real GNP estimates since labor productivity of federal civilian employees has risen, according to Labor Department estimates begun in 1972, at an average annual rate of 1; percent since 1967. The estimates now cover almost 70 percent of the employees. The chief avenue for further improvement lies in refinement of the output indicators. Coverage of state and local government employees is spotty and needs to be expanded. The author also recommends a major effort to estimate public capital stocks in current and constant prices as a basis for measuring rental values, capital inputs, and productivity.     

SEQUESTERING CARBON ON AGRICULTURAL LAND: SOCIAL COST AND IMPACTS ON TIMBER MARKETS

Planting trees to sequester carbon has broad political appeal. However, effects of a major tree planting program on the agricultural sector and on timber markets are unclear. This paper examines social costs of sequestering carbon in tree plantations on U.S. agricultural land and investigates harvesting's effects on timber prices and on private timber producers' welfare. The analysis links a model of the U.S. agricultural sector that includes the land base in major production areas with a model of the U.S. softwood economy. Using current data on planting, maintenance, and harvesting costs for tree plantations and carbon sequestration rates, the models estimate the price and welfare effects of alternative carbon sequestration goals. Results indicate a range of outcomes. Consumers pay higher prices for food as farmers divert land from crops to trees. However, wood products consumers gain from falling timber prices if the trees enter commercial markets. Agricultural producers and landowners gain from higher commodity prices, but private forest owners lose. Large tree planting programs imply that policymakers must compensate private commercial tree planting to prevent farmers from displacing present tree plantations.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AT CONSTANT PRICES

This article discusses the problem of compiling a balanced set of national accounts at constant prices. The method adopted is based on earlier work on this subject by Burge and Geary. Commodity flows, which are uniquely deflatable, are expressed at constant prices and savings in constant prices is obtained by preserving a balanced set of equations in real terms. The deflation of the external account is discussed.
A method is suggested for expressing the national income account in real terms and an "income gain" is deduced for each industrial sector which represents the difference between real income and real product in that sector. The sum of the income gains for the domestic sectors is zero.
The constituents of the income/expenditure accounts of households, corporations and general government are expressed at constant prices by selecting suitable deflators in a consistent manner. The accounts in real terms are now unbalanced and are balanced again by inserting a balancing item which is shown to represent a gain to the sector arising from changes in the terms of trade between the sectors. This item is called an "expenditure gain". The sum of the expenditure gains for the institutional sectors is zero.
The system suggested can be extended to cover additional items in the accounts and thus a complete set of national accounts in real terms can be derived.     

The relationship between government accounts and national accounts, with special reference to the netherlands

National accounts are a macro-economic accounting system that is compiled on the basis of a globally harmonized accounting standard, that is SNA93/ESA95. To a large extent, the SNA93/ESA95 accounting principles are also suitable for government (micro-)accounting purposes, if only because the accounts drawn up according to this standard are comparable across (types of) units and over time. That facilitates performance monitoring and benchmarking. In addition, the ESA95 guidelines and procedures deal with innovative transactions and accounting, which increases the credibility of the accounts. Finally, accounts for government units are then directly comparable with the macroeconomic accounts, which facilitates the link between forecasts for the national economy and drawing up government budgets. This paper also describes the present conversion of government accounts to national accounts for the government sector in the Netherlands and the plans of the Dutch government to change from a cash-based to an accrual government accounting system.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

CONSTANT WEALTH NATIONAL INCOME: ACCOUNTING FOR WAR DAMAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE NETHERLANDS, 1940–45

The issue of the proper way to address and document crisis and disaster in the national accounts is brought into focus by analyzing a practical case: the damage caused by the Second World War as discussed at a 1945 Paris reparations conference. It is concluded that "what if" damage e.g. output not produced due to the war should not be included in the national accounts, but factual damage should. The method by which factual damage should be included must then be decided. The option of just showing the damage in the reconciliation accounts is rejected. Instead the introduction of an additional income concept into the accounts, constant wealth national income is proposed. This Hicksian concept deducts from standard national income the damage to all produced goods lasting longer than a year. The concept is illustrated with guesstimates for the Netherlands, 1940–45. Finally, by way of an illustration, the paper employs 1945 estimates of damage in the Netherlands in order to arrive at a constant wealth national income for 1940–45. It is shown that, in 1938 prices, constant wealth national income is very much lower than standard national income and thus far better reflects the decline in prosperity during these years.     

A NOTE ON MEASURING SECTORAL INPUT PRODUCTIVITY*

This note attempts to shed some light on the relationship between the total factor productivity derived from national income accounts and the total input productivity based upon input-output accounts, especially on a sectoral basis. Since there has been no positive evidence to support a constancy between changes in net and gross output in individual industries, the formulation of a measure of sectoral input productivity change by using the formula of the Divisia index based on input-output accounts may be valuable in examining possible biases which are associated with a common notion of the total factor productivity. An operational definition of sectoral input productivity change and its relation to sectoral total factor productivity are discussed in the present note, in addition to its empirical application to the Japanese data.     

National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

FUNCTIONAL ESTIMATES OF JAPANESE GOVERNMENT DOMESTIC EXPENDITURES, FISCAL 1952–1963

The purpose of the paper is to describe current and constant price estimates of Japanese central and local government postwar domestic expenditures by economic type and function recently completed by Miss Yoshiko Kido, International Christian University, Tokyo, and myself. The rationale of the functional classification is to estimate those government expenditures which enhance the economy's productive capacity. Expenditures are divided into four broad functional categories: developmental, disaster repair and prevention, social welfare, and general government. These four categories are subdivided to two levels of disaggregation. We were able to break down government fixed investment, government enterprise inventory investment, current domestic transfers and subsidies into 42 functional components. For constant price series, each functional component by economic type was deflated by separate price indexes. We followed the Economic Planning Agency's procedure for the official national accounts of assuming no productivity change in the provision of government services. Our results are generally comparable to the official national accounts estimates. The major difference is that we attribute considerably more fixed investment to local governments, and correspondingly less to the central level. Government expenditures had the following characteristics. Growth was rapid; in real terms the public sector use of the economy's resources in 1963 was 2.2 times more than in 1952. The elasticity of government expenditures to GNP was unity in current prices, slightly less in real terms. The government postwar share in GNP has been smaller than in European nations and, unlike them, was not rising. This reflects the underlying growth strategy of emphasis upon private business fixed investment. Government consumption expenditures declined relative to GNP, and investment rose. Developmental expenditures comprised the largest share (40–45 per cent) of the government total. The elasticities to GNP of government expenditures by economic and functional categories are provided and discussed. A simple test was made of the cyclical relationship of government expenditures (both total and by category) to GNP. The results suggest that government expenditures, rather than contra-cyclical, were pro-cyclical in effect.     

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY? ICT,INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT,AND BRITAIN'S PRODUCTIVITY RECORD REVISITED

Despite the apparent importance of the "knowledge economy," U.K. macroeconomic performance appears unaffected: investment rates are flat, and productivity has slowed. We investigate whether measurement issues might account for this puzzle. The standard National Accounts treatment of most spending on "knowledge" or "intangible" assets is as intermediate consumption. Thus they do not count as either GDP or investment. We ask how treating such spending as investment affects some key macro variables, namely, market sector gross value added (MGVA), business investment, capital and labor shares, growth in labor and total factor productivity (TFP), and capital deepening. We find: (a) MGVA was understated by about 6 percent in 1970 and 13 percent in 2004; (b) instead of the business investment/MGVA ratio falling since 1970 it has been rising; (c) instead of the labor share being flat since 1970 it has been falling; (d) growth in labor productivity and capital deepening has been understated and growth in TFP overstated; and (e) TFP growth has not slowed since 1990 but has been accelerating.     

Offshoring,Sourcing Substitution Bias,and the Measurement of Growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Productivity

The decade before the financial crisis of 2008 was a time of large changes in sourcing patterns for manufactured goods, particularly after China's entry into the WTO in 2001. Sourcing substitution reduced the prices paid by wholesale level buyers of these goods, but these price reductions were mostly not captured in the U.S. import price indexes and the U.S. GDP deflator. To find plausible values for sourcing bias we first use data on changes in sourcing patterns over 1997–2007 to predict the effect of the reported price discount from the new emerging market suppliers. Next, we compare adjusted import price indexes for products used for household consumption with consumer price indexes. In the GDP deflator for apparel imports, sourcing bias is found to average 0.6 percent per year, and for durable goods it averages 1 percent per year. During the decade of rapidly changing sourcing patterns, a tenth of the reported speedup in multifactor productivity growth of the U.S. private business sector may have come from sourcing bias in the deflators for imports.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

Technology and the services sector: The hidden competitive challenge

Information technology has always played an important role in the services sector of the U.S. economy. In recent years, however, services industries have stepped up their acquisitions of computers, telecommunications equipment, and other such products dramatically. As a result, the broad segment of the economy that can be classified as services providers now owns about 84% of the total U.S. stock of information technology items. Moreover, relative to goods-producing industries, a much larger proportion of the services sector's capital budgets is spent on information technology, revealing a significantly greater dependence by services on such technology as a factor of production. This reliance underscores technology's strategic importance in the United States' competitive challenge. With services now the predominant mode of economic activity in the United States, a productivity payback from information technology is absolutely essential to keep the economy on a longer term path of sustainable growth.So far, the services sector has little to show for its spending binge on technology. Quite simply, massive investments in information technology have failed to boost national productivity growth in the present decade. Furthermore, with manufacturing productivity now on the rebound, problems in the services sector loom increasingly large in the United States' broader competitive struggle. It is certainly not too late. New and creative applications of information technology could still enhance the productivity performance of the services sector's predominantly white-collar work force. Until that payback begins to occur, however, the role of technology spending will be under growing suspicion [3, 8, 9].In what follows, an attempt is made to provide a detailed industry-by-industry assessment of services sector spending on information technology. By way of background, the broad contours of capital formation in services industries are first examined over the post-World War II era.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF U.S. REAL CAPITAL INPUT, 1929–1967

The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for the measurement of real capital input. These methods are based on perpetual inventory estimates of capital stock and corresponding estimates of capital service prices. Stocks and service prices are adjusted for relative utilization of capital. The resulting estimates represent a separation of income from capital into price and quantity components. Estimates of capital input in current and constant prices are constructed for corporate business, non-corporate business, and households and non-profit institutions in the United States for the period 1929–1967. These estimates are prepared in a form suitable for integration into the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.