收入分配、居民消费与经济发展方式转变

改革开放30年来我国经济持续地高速增长过程中呈现出收入差距不断扩大和居民消费需求不振等问题。文章通过构建模型实证检验了收入分配、居民消费与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明：尽管收入差距对农村居民消费的影响并不显著,但城镇居民收入分配差距对其消费有显著的负面影响,我国居民收入差距扩大显著地制约了我国消费需求的增长;居民消费对经济增长存在显著的积极影响,且对经济增长的效应强于投资,扩大居民消费有利于我国经济可持续发展。文章据此提出了针对性的政策建议。     

推进基本公共服务均等化 促进消费发展

"十二五"时期是我国从中等偏上收入阶段向高收入阶段迈进、实现全面建设小康社会目标的关键时期。在这个发展阶段,一方面,加快转变经济发展方式,保持经济长期平稳较快发展,从数量和结构的增加和提升上,保障消费需求的供给和实现;另一方面,通过提高政府基本公共服务保障的能力和水平,缓解公共服务短缺带来的矛盾,在改善民生,促进社会公平正义的同时,扩大消费需求,促进消费发展。     

胡锦涛提出2006年经济工作八项任务

一、稳定宏观经济政策，保持经济平稳较快增长的良好势头。这对于增强综合国力、有效缓解经济社会矛盾是非常必要的。要实现经济平稳较快增长，关键是要努力扩大国内需求，坚持实施稳健的财政政策和货币政策，继续加强和改善宏观调控。扩大内需是我国经济发展的长期战略方针和基本立足点。要努力调整投资消费关系，把增加居民消费特别是农民消费作为扩大消费需求的重点，不断拓宽消费领域和改善消费环境。     

劳动者收入与扩大消费需求——基于经济增长模式转型背景

在经济增长模式转型背景下研究我国劳动者收入问题对于扩大消费需求具有十分重要的影响:当前我国劳动者持久性收入过低以及持久性收入的不稳定性、预防性特征抑制了居民消费需求的增长;劳动者暂时性收入的不确定性特征降低了居民的消费需求。如果能够通过大幅增加劳动者的持久性收入,就可以使劳动者形成对未来收入的稳定性预期,这对扩大国内消费需求和经济增长模式的转型具有非常重要的作用。因此,为提高劳动者收入和扩大居民的消费需求,本文提出以下对策建议:建立工资正常增长机制和支付保障机制;调整国民收入分配结构;建立完善的社会保障制度;深化金融体制改革,创新金融工具。     

我国居民消费增长的未来趋势与现实抑制

经济增速维持高位、就业形势趋好、收入分配格局改善等利好因素支撑着我国居民消费的长期增长趋势。但是,消费率偏低仍然是困扰我国经济发展方式转变的主要困难。收入分配差距大、公共服务不健全、消费环境不佳、通货膨胀、外部不确定性等矛盾同时制约着消费增长。必须长期制度创新与短期政策优化相结合,力促居民消费增长。     

促进总需求结构调整 扩大居民消费的税收政策

目前我国投资、消费和出口非均衡状态的成因是多方面的,从税收角度来看,政府收入超高速增长、以间接税为主体的税制结构以及现行财税体制是影响国民收入分配失衡、导致居民消费率偏低的原因之一。需求结构调整已成为经济结构战略性调整的首要任务。为调整总需求结构、促进转变经济发展方式,中国未来税收政策取向是:总量政策——在控制税收增速的同时,政府应率先合理调整宏观税负,扭转收入分配失衡;结构政策——优化税制结构,公平税收负担,调节收入差距,扩大居民消费。     

基于消费结构升级的扩大内需

扩大内需的政策取向应该是在扩大投资需求的同时，将政策重心放在如何启动与扩大消费需求上面，更加注重消费需求在经济增长中的基础性作用，着力推进居民消费结构升级，把增加居民消费作为扩大内需的终极目标     

收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究

本文研究了城乡收入差距扩大对中国居民消费需求的影响.基于生命周期框架的理论研究表明,收入水平越高,居民平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向越低;收入差距越大,居民消费需求越低.文章使用1978—2008年我国28个省、市、自治区的面板数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.结果显示,收入水平提高10000元,居民平均消费倾向下降25.6%,边际消费倾向下降7%;城乡收入差距扩大1单位,居民消费率下降6.5个百分点.数值模拟结果表明,城乡收入差距扩大导致居民消费率在2000—2008年间下降了3.42个百分点,解释了这一期间居民消费率下降的30.8%     

山西省居民消费对经济增长影响的实证分析

近年来,山西省城乡居民收入与消费水平不断提高,但消费需求不足成为目前阻碍国民经济发展的一个主要因素。通过对城乡居民消费与经济增长的回归分析,得出居民消费比投资更能拉动经济的增长,提高城乡居民的消费,尤其是拓展农村居民的消费具有重要的意义;通过对居民消费结构的分析,得出消费需求结构决定了经济增长的结构,只有合理的居民消费需求结构才能成为经济水平增长的基础。在此基础上,文章提出扩大居民消费、拉动经济增长的建议。     

对建立扩大消费需求长效机制的思考

扩大消费是拉动中国经济增长的重要力量。制约我国居民消费需求的因素很多。要有针对性地利用综合政策来扩大居民消费需求,包括扩大就业,增加居民收入;调整收入分配结构,减小收入差距;完善公共服务机制,改善民生;加强市场监管,优化消费环境;构建多样化供给机制,增加有效供给等等。     

个人所得税政策调整影响及进一步改革建议

文章认为,2011年的个人所得税的政策调整,对我国经济生活的方方面面产生了较大的影响。对劳动力供给、个人投资和消费、国家财政以及社会分配等会产生有利的影响;对财政收入等会产生不利影响。同时也应看到,因调整未触及个人所得税转型等根本性问题,费用扣除不合理、分类分项扣除不公平和应对物价上涨乏力等关键性问题没有纳入调整视线,需要待时机成熟时进行相应的改革。     

Economic policy uncertainty and household consumption: Evidence from Chinese households

We find that households reduce their consumption in response to higher economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Compared with lower income households, high income group is more severely affected which can be explained by the portfolio choice of illiquid asset and liquid asset. In addition, the uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, well-educated and urban households. The impact of EPU on household consumption is also persistent. Holding more liquid asset and commercial insurance represent important channels in mitigating the negative effect of EPU on household consumption.     

Are Illegal Drugs Inferior Goods in the US?

Using data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, evidence of income inferiority in illegal drug consumption is presented. This is done by estimation of binary choice probit models with endogenous regressors. The endogeneity of income with regard to drug consumption is considered and the more efficient three-stage least squares procedures have been implemented. In general, the results indicate that accounting for endogeneity improves results on income inferiority with regard to drug consumption. An implication of this study is that some form of income distribution policies towards the poor might be more effective in controlling substance abuse. It also points out the regressive nature of the government’s substance abuse program.

调整消费和分配政策推动城乡一体化

城乡经济的发展取决于许多因素,由于城乡经济的巨大差距,造成城乡居民收入分配的差异,进而影响了居民消费行为。文章从影响城乡经济发展的城乡居民收入分配差异和收入差距扩大对居民消费水平和行为影响的视角,进行深入的分析,从而提出政府应通过加大反贫困的再分配力度、加快农村劳动力转移、增加社会福利费用等消费和收入分配政策的调整,推动城乡一体化的建设和发展。     

Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle

In contrast to many other countries, consumption inequalities in Japan are not constant over household age but increase from around middle age—a fact first highlighted by Ohtake and Saito [Ohtake, F., Saito, M., 1998. Population aging and consumption inequality in Japan. Rev. Income Wealth 44, 361–381]. Given this information, we examine whether this phenomenon is consistent with the standard precautionary saving model developed by Carroll [Carroll, C.D., 1997. Buffer-stock savings and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Quart. J. Econ. 62, 1–56]. Specifically, we investigate: (1) the degree of age dependence of idiosyncratic income risks; and (2) the importance of age dependence for the evolution of inequalities in consumption predicted by the household model of Carroll (1997). We find a strong age dependence of income risks, which creates a nonlinear age–variance profile of income, and the standard precautionary saving model is consistent with the observed consumption inequalities as long as we take the nonlinearity in age–variance profiles of income into account.     

Effectiveness of monetary policy and limited asset market participation: Neoclassical versus Keynesian effects

This paper investigates the effects of limited asset market participation on the effectiveness of monetary policy in a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Although an increase in consumers who cannot access financial markets reduces the effects of interest rate policies through consumption inter-temporal allocation (neoclassical or permanent income effect), we find an opposite result: monetary policy becomes more effective as the degree of financial market participation falls. The reason has a very Keynesian flavor.     

Income volatility,household leverage,and consumption in Korea

Using the micro household data in Korea, we examine the effects of income volatility changes on households’ leverage and consumption. We found that households who faced increased income volatility lowered their leverage ratio. A one standard deviation increase in income volatility was associated with 1.3 ∼ 1.5 percentage point decrease in the leverage ratio. The effects of income volatility changes on households’ leverage choices varied with households’ borrowing constraints and other socioeconomic backgrounds. We also found that when faced with enlarged income uncertainty, households’ income coefficients on consumption were lowered. The income coefficient of average households was estimated to be around 0.16, while households with increased income volatility were around 0.12. In particular, similar to the relations in leverage ratio changes, consumptions among potentially borrowing-constrained households and those with ‘net-short’ position in real estate assets were more affected by increases in income volatility. This can be understood that households smoothed their consumption during the periods of increased income volatility, and this was shown in the smaller consumption elasticity on income. This can be attributed to the fact that faced with increased income volatility, households lower the risk exposure of their financial net wealth by lowering their leverage ratio.     

Individual well-being in urban China: The role of income expectations

Using household survey data, we study the determinants of individual well-being in urban China, emphasizing particularly the role of income expectations. First, we find that individual well-being increases contemporaneously with own income and decreases with community's average income, consistent with findings reported in previous studies. This result holds when we replace income with consumption and when we consider employment and health status of other family members. Second and more important, we find that income expectations have a positive and significant effect on individual well-being. This result is robust to alternative model specifications and to controls for optimistic personality. Instrumental variable estimates and endogeneity tests suggest that the positive relationship between well-being and income expectations is genuine. Our finding has the potential to explain why reported well-being has declined in China despite the spectacular economic growth in the past decades.     

Income redistribution,interdependent consumers’ preferences and aggregate consumption

Conclusion In the above discussion we have taken a particular view of the emulation process, its relation to the movement from one level of living to another level of living and the process of such a movement itself. One may disagree with some elements in this framework but this analysis suggests, nonetheless, that a number of factors are involved in determining the effect of income redistribution on aggregate consumption expenditure. The manner and the force of emulation, the number of consumers in various income groups, their nearness to another level, the extent to which they increase or decrease their savings or consumption as a result of income redistribution appear to be some of the important factors. Unless one has sufficient information on these factors it seems difficult to conclude one way or the other about the effect of income redistribution on aggregate consumption. It becomes still more difficult to come to a definite conclusion if we consider that the consumers desire not only a better standard of living but also larger financial reserves.