自由贸易协定中贸易便利化规则对价值链贸易的影响

文章利用世界银行深度贸易协定数据库,对自由贸易协定中纳入的贸易便利化与海关程序规则进行统计,实证检验贸易便利化规则深度对价值链贸易的影响。研究结果表明,随着贸易网络扩大,欧盟在整个贸易便利化结构网络中稳居主导地位,中国、韩国等节点的影响力逐年提升,美国、智利等节点的度中心度有所下降。这些缔约方在自由贸易协定中纳入的贸易便利化规则深度越高,越能促进价值链贸易发展,且对中间品贸易的影响弹性显著高于最终品贸易。在六项代表性贸易便利化规则中,单一窗口、经认证经营者带来的贸易创造效应更加明显。进一步通过机制检验发现,贸易便利化规则对价值链贸易的促进作用受到成员国之间制度距离、地理距离和经济距离的约束。但若成员国同为一带一路沿线国,贸易便利化规则会放大其贸易效应。研究表明,促进一带一路高质量发展,加快与周边国家签署自由贸易协定,规制高标准贸易便利化规则,对提升中国在全球价值链中的地位具有重要意义。     

自由贸易协定深化、数字贸易规则与数字贸易发展

本文通过构建自由贸易协定数字贸易异质性条款指标体系,在静态签订、总体深化、水平深化和垂直深化多重视角下,全面探究自由贸易协定深化对数字贸易影响。分析发现,自由贸易协定签订、总体深化、水平深化与垂直深化均对数字贸易存在显著正向效应,核心WTO-X深度条款、边境后措施深度条款促进效应更强,但自由贸易协定深化的第三方效应对数字贸易存在显著的负向作用。在异质性影响方面,数字贸易条款类型、自由贸易协定深化领域类型、数字产品类型等对数字贸易呈现显著差异化影响,电子商务、数据流动条款深化呈现促进效应,但知识产权条款深化呈现抑制效应;包含政治性、经济一体化和研发合作领域的自由贸易协定对数字贸易促进作用更大;自由贸易协定深化对计算机及外围设备出口的促进效应更大,对通信设备出口的影响次之。基于全球样本的经验证据,本文以RCEP和CPTPP为样本,探寻构建数字贸易规则的“中国范本”,促进中国掌握新一轮全球数字贸易规则制定的主动权。     

中国自由贸易协定的出口效应——基于商品技术含量的分行业研究

自"多哈回合"多边贸易谈判陷入僵局以来,各国均积极寻求缔结双边或区域自由贸易协定(FTA)。作为全球贸易大国,中国也在积极推行FTA战略。本文旨在深入评估中国与贸易伙伴国缔结的FTA所产生的出口贸易效应。首先,基于联合国贸发委的出口贸易数据和产品分类标准,按照商品技术含量对出口产品进行分类。其次,在前人研究的基础上,本文构建了扩展的引力模型,就中国签订的FTA对贸易伙伴国的出口流量和结构所产生的影响进行分析。最终结果显示:中国签订的贸易自由化程度较高的FTA有助于中国产品的出口,而中国签订的贸易自由化程度较低的FTA减少了中国对这些国家初级产品、资源密集型商品和低技术劳动密集型商品的出口,但提高了中国中等技术商品的出口。     

自由贸易协定缔结的影响因素研究：基于第三国效应的研究视角

文章基于第三国效应的研究视角,利用WTO区域贸易协定数据库中2001～2018年108个经济体缔结的自由贸易协定面板数据,运用Chen和Joshi(2010)协定缔结概率分析框架以及Logit二元响应计量方法,从理论和实证两个方面就已有自由贸易协定的不同链接结构对未来各国缔结FTA的解释能力进行研究。研究发现,第三国效应对于后续FTA缔结具有较好的解释能力,且这种影响呈现出明显的差异性：相较于单一外部自由贸易协定结构,双外部自由贸易协定结构对两国缔结FTA的影响更大;在共同双外部自由贸易协定即两国均与共同第三国签署FTA的情形下,双方后续缔结FTA的概率会显著提高,但在不同双外部自由贸易协定,即两国均与其他第三国签署FTA的情形下,双方后续缔结FTA的概率会下降。文章还从国别类型和协定种类两个视角,探讨了已有外部FTA结构、经济因素、制度差异、文化联系和地缘关系对两国后续缔结FTA的差异化影响。此外,文章还延伸讨论了APEC成员间缔结FTA的动因、中国FTA的预测与战略选择,以及中、韩加入CPTPP的可行性。文章的研究为中国通过有效选择缔约伙伴和签约时点来积极参与区域贸易自由化进程提供...     

中韩日自由贸易协定(FTA)的可行性及其经济效应

本文首先回顾中韩日对自由贸易协定(FTA)的认识及其政策的转变、以及至今所进行的研究和谈判的进程,在此基础上分析各国的立场及其政策。其次,从短期静态效应和长期动态效应的角度研究FTA将给各国带来的效应与冲击,指出中韩日FTA的经济效应将更多地体现在促进相互贸易及经济增长等长期的动态效应上。第三,分析推进三国FTA所面临的问题以及各国必需进行的战略调整,强调中韩日FTA应该成为促进东亚经济合作的重要一环,并提出中国在这过程中应采取的战略步骤。     

基于巴拉萨模型的中国新西兰FTA贸易效应研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

中国于2008年4月与新西兰签订的自由贸易协定,不仅大大推动了中新两国的经贸合作,而且为中国和其他发达国家签订FTA提供了良好的借鉴作用。本文运用巴拉萨模型对自贸区的开展给中新两国双边贸易产生的影响进行实证分析。文章得出中新自贸区的开展给新西兰带来的贸易创造效应要大于给中国带来的贸易创造效应,因此,中国可利用两国的贸易互补性促进经贸活动的进一步深入开展。     

亚太区域内自由贸易协定的“轴心-辐条”格局解析

作者从"多米诺"效应引致"轴心-辐条"结构的形成过程出发,分析了轴心国家和辐条国家在此过程中的福利变化,并从轴心国家、二级轴心、辐条国家和格局外国家(地区)等视角详细分析了亚太区域内正在形成的自由贸易协定"轴心-辐条"格局,研究了"轴心-辐条"格局对亚太自由化进程的积极和消极影响,设计了一条将"轴心-辐条"格局发展成亚太自由贸易区的可能途径,以消除该格局对亚太自由化进程的负面影响。此外,该文提出了一套中国参与亚太区域内"轴心-辐条"格局的完整策略,包括确立轴心国家地位、增进与东盟及其成员的联系、加快与二级轴心建立自由贸易协定以及加强与中国台湾地区的经贸联系等具体的战略。     

中日韩与东盟自由贸易协定的比较——以货物贸易为例

比较CAFTA与JAFTA、KAFTA,从内容上看,中国比日韩更有诚意,也更令各方满意;从成效上看,2000年以来中国与东盟的贸易量比日韩与东盟增速快得多,占外贸的比例也得到提高。经典引力模型显示CAFTA对区内贸易比日韩-东盟自贸区具有更显著的扩大效应。最后,对中国下一步与东盟合作的方向进行了初步的探讨。     

欧韩自由贸易协定与欧盟贸易的“东进序曲”

10月举行的欧盟韩国峰会上，欧盟与韩国正式签署了自由贸易协定。对韩国来说，签订自由贸易协定是一件再普通不过的商务外交事件。而且这也并不是一件新鲜事。许多年前，韩国就曾与智利签署了自由贸易协定。     

论ECFA对两岸经贸关系的影响——基于双边自由贸易理论的分析

签订FTA对小规模经济体而言,在降低进入成本同时,带来贸易转移效应,并利用大型经济体的资源实现自身产业链的优化,避免被边缘化的危机,提高经济水平和自身福利。本文从理论上分析了ECFA签订的必要性,并结合台湾实际,提出政策建议。     

交叉重叠的自由贸易协定对世界多边贸易体制的挑战

本文从几个不同的但彼此相关的角度提出了现存交叉重叠的自由贸易协定对世界多边贸易体制的影响。“竞争性自由化”的持续最终不会产生全球自由贸易;“竞争性自由化”对非成员的刺激以及对其贸易壁垒的影响;大国小国之间的自由贸易协定所涉及的非贸易条款是多边贸易关税居高不下的原因之一;交叉重叠的自由贸易协定网络所形成的体系问题。这些交叉重叠的自由贸易协定是大小形状各不相同的石头,很难想象如何将它们用来建筑全球自由贸易。     

Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies

Countries in southern Africa have engaged in a variety of tradeliberalisation initiatives such as the European Union (EU)–SouthAfrica Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the EU's ‘Everythingbut Arms’ (EBA) initiative to eliminate trade barriersagainst imports from the least developed countries and a potentialFTA among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries.In this paper we use a multi-country computable general equilibrium(CGE) model to analyse the impact of trade liberalisation inthe region. First, we analyse the FTA between South Africa andthe EU. Then, we consider how the rest of southern Africa mightrespond: (i) by enforcing an SADC FTA; (ii) by exploiting theadvantages of unilateral access to the EU in addition to anSADC FTA; and (iii) by entering an FTA with the EU and otherSADC countries. The scenarios are ordered such that the SADCcountries pursue increased trade liberalisation. We find thatunder all FTA arrangements the increased total imports fromFTA partners exceeds the reduction in imports from non-FTA partners— the FTAs examined are all net trade creating. Some SADCeconomies are slightly hurt by the FTA between the EU and SouthAfrica, while others gain slightly. Overall, the agreement isnot a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. We also find that unilateralaccess to the EU is more beneficial for SADC countries thanan SADC FTA because the SADC countries trade more with the EUthan with each other. However, reciprocal reforms under an EU–SADCFTA dominate unilateral access to the EU because they requiremore structural adjustment in the SADC countries. Finally, wefind that South Africa is not large enough to serve as a growthpole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantiallybigger gains for the other SADC countries than access to SouthAfrica.     

APEC成员间建立FTA的影响因素研究

本文使用Probit模型对APEC成员间建立FTA的影响因素进行了经验分析。一个国家在决定是否与其他国家结成FTA时,从长期来看主要考虑其是否会带来本国经济福利的改善。纯经济因素准确预测了APEC成员间59个已经形成的FTA中的51个和151个尚未结成的FTA中的146个。与以往的研究不同,本文额外考察了生产者服务在长期内对于FTA形成的影响,以及社会和政治因素在短期内对于FTA形成的影响。     

China's Free Trade Agreements Unlocking the "Hidden" Cost Savings

The China price is reshaping how and where products are manufactured in today’s global economy．With China’s abundant workforce and Iow cost structure,products with the Made in China IabeI can be produced for a fraction of the costs incurred in other countries．GIobaI consumers have come to expect lower prices as a result．     

The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.     

Bilateral Trade Agreements*

Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) have been proliferating. Why are they so popular? What are their impacts on multilateralism and the world trade system? The article identifies the general and specific factors driving the growth in BTAs, and examines how BTAs in general and different types of BTAs are affecting the world trade system. Although the sheer number of BTAs is fragmenting the world trade system, the impact of individual BTAs often depends on their underlying motivation. The article also portrays scenarios for the future landscape of world trade and possible responses. Is the consolidation of BTAs into region‐wide agreements a solution or simply a new problem? How can we multilateralise bilateralism and repair the world trade system? The article attempts to answer these questions, with or without Doha.     

企业财务：中国自由贸易协定揭开隐藏的成本节约的秘密

税收伴随着国家的产生而产生，它与国家和人民同呼吸共命运，政权的转移。历史的兴衰，社会的发展、科技的进步、人民的安康，无一不与税收休戚相关。历史告诉我们：“无税则不国．税重要完国，无国便无家”。如果把国家比作参天大树，把人民比作土壤的话，那么把税收比作水分是再合适不过的了。企业是国民经济的基础，市场经济发展的主体，国家税收的源泉，其重要程度不言而喻。本期专题，特意探讨企业节约成本的方法，特别是税收筹划之道，旨在税法许可的范围内，有效地利用和分配资源，取得税负最轻化或税后利益最大化。企业成本的降低、活力的增加、国际竞争力的提高，对国家、对社会才是最大的贡献。     

Free Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Endogeneity and Dynamics

This article studies the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on outbound foreign direct investment (FDI). From one perspective, FTA may promote FDI since FTA aim to promote economic activity between countries. However, lower trade barriers may lower the incentive of firms to conduct FDI. Therefore, the net impact is an empirical question. Using a panel of countries for the years 1990–2006, this article effectively controls for participation in an FTA when analyzing the impact on outbound FDI. The lengthy time series also allows us to examine effectively the dynamic nature of the relationship. Failing to account for endogeneity and dynamics would likely generate inaccurate conclusions regarding the impact of FTA on outbound FDI. Our analysis finds that outbound FDI is either unrelated to participation in an FTA or is negatively affected.