Monopoly with local knowledge of demand function

In this note, we propose a model where a quantity setting monopolist has incomplete knowledge of the demand function. In each period, the firm sets the quantity produced observing only the selling price and the slope of the demand curve at that quantity. Given this information and through a learning process the firm estimates a linear subjective demand curve. We show that the steady states of the dynamic equation are critical points of the objective profit function. Moreover, results depend on convexity/concavity of the demand. When the demand function is convex and the objective profit function has a unique critical point: the steady state is a globally stable maximum; conversely when then steady state is not unique, local maximums are locally stable, while local minimums are locally unstable. On the other hand when the demand function is concave, the unique critical point is a maximum: there can be stability or instability of the critical point and period two cycles around it via a flip bifurcation. Moreover, through simulations we can observe that, with a mixed inverse demand function, there are different dynamic behaviors, from stability to chaos and that we have transition to complex dynamics via a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations. Finally, we show that the same results can be obtained if the monopolist is a price setter.     

Economic uncertainty,monetary uncertainty and the Korean demand for money

Economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are said to affect public’s holding of money in either direction. In this paper, we consider the Korean demand for money, and after including two GARCH-based measures of output uncertainty and monetary uncertainty, we show that both measures exert significant effects on the demand for money in Korea in the short run. However, only the adverse effects of output uncertainty lasts into the long run. Indeed, including the two uncertainty measures yield a stable demand for money in Korea.     

Vertical product differentiation under demand uncertainty

In this paper, I examine a quality-then-price game in a fully covered market where firms are uncertain about consumer tastes regarding quality. The equilibrium is characterized under the fixed costs and variable costs of quality improvement, respectively. It is shown that the uncertainty is a differentiation force, and the quality differentiation increases more under variable costs than under fixed costs. In addition, an increase in uncertainty leads to higher profits and higher social welfare regardless of whether under fixed or variable costs. This result contrasts with the lower welfare in the Hotelling model with uncertainty. Finally, an analysis of the case of partial market coverage with uncertainty completes this paper.     

Sequential location under one-sided demand uncertainty

In entering a new market, firms face demand uncertainty. We depart from the usual Hotelling duopoly model with sequential entry. We allow firms to locate outside of the city and assume that market conditions are common knowledge. We then introduce one-sided demand uncertainty. We find that demand uncertainty can be seen as a differentiation force when faced by the first entrant and as an agglomeration force when faced by the second entrant. Finally, the second firm’s imperfect information implies higher welfare losses.     

Large market games with demand uncertainty

We consider a market game with a continuum of consumers, where the measure of each type is stochastic. Nature selects the set of active consumers, who make bids and offers on ?−1 spot market trading posts. Existence of type-symmetric Nash equilibrium is proven. When facing price uncertainty, best responses are unique, and a Nash equilibrium to the sell-all game is typically not a Nash equilibrium to the original game. Under plausible circumstances, consumers strictly prefer to be on one side of the market.     

Product differentiation and location decisions under demand uncertainty

We investigate Hotelling's duopoly game of location-then-price choices with quadratic transportation costs and uniformly distributed consumers under the assumption that firms are uncertain about the exact location of demand. We characterize the unique equilibrium and the socially optimal locations. Contrary to the individual-level random utility models, location uncertainty is a differentiation force. In equilibrium, increases in the variance of the uncertainty lead to greater differentiation, higher expected equilibrium prices and profits, and a greater welfare loss.     

Technology investment and alternative regulatory regimes with demand uncertainty

A vertically integrated incumbent and an OLO (Other Licensed Operator) compete in the market for broadband access. The incumbent has the option to invest in building a Next Generation Network that covers all urban areas with similar demand structures. The investment return in terms of demand increase is uncertain. We compare the impact of different access regulation regimes – full regulation, partial regulation (only the copper network is regulated), risk sharing – on investment incentives and social welfare. We find that, when the alternative for the OLO is using the copper network rather than leaving the market entirely, exclusion of the OLO does not necessarily happen in equilibrium even when the incumbent is better in offering value-added services. Risk sharing emerges as the most preferable regime both from a consumer and a social welfare perspective for a large range of parameters.     

Strategic interactions and airline network morphology under demand uncertainty

In this paper, we examine how strategic interactions affect airline network under demand uncertainty. We develop a three-stage duopoly game: at stage 1 airlines determine their network structure (linear versus hub-and-spoke); at stage 2 they decide on their capacities; at stage 3 firms compete in quantities. The main feature of the model is that firms have to decide on network structure and capacities while facing demand uncertainty. We show that while hubbing is efficient, airlines may choose a linear network for strategic reasons. Furthermore, we show that this structure softens competition by preventing contagion of competition across markets.     

Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia

The demand for money has received a great deal of attention in the empirical literature. This literature, however, has emphasized factors such as interest rate, income, inflation rate and exchange rate as the primary determinants of money demand. Although an emerging strand of literature examines uncertainty as a potential determinant of money demand, findings have been mixed. Using a news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and Australian quarterly data from 1998 to 2017, we study the impact of policy uncertainty on demand for money. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) results show that the economic policy uncertainty measure has a negative short-run effect on the demand for money, suggesting the wider public hedge against future expected inflation, and positive long-run effect, whereby the broader public hold more cash to stay liquid during times of economic uncertainty. Also, introducing nonlinearity into the money demand equation, we find an asymmetric effect, more in favour of currency appreciations, supporting the expectations effect of further appreciations in exchange rate movements.     

Incentive compatibility and the quantity-setting competitive firm under demand uncertainty

This paper examines the tie between the popular black box neoclassical quantity-setting firm under demand uncertainty and a firm with a rudimentary but explicit employee relation organizational structure in which workers are offered fixed wages for following management directives. Surprisingly, the quantity-setting firm unambiguously mimics optimal employment relation hiring and work rules when the contract is incentive-compatible ex post. The attitude toward risk is shown to be the key determinant of whether or not the quantity-setting firm replicates the optimal employment relation contract when ex post incentive-compatibility is relaxed.     

Endogenous timing in a mixed oligopoly under demand uncertainty

This paper analyzes a Hotelling-type game in a mixed oligopoly, where firms can either enter the market in period 1, facing demand uncertainty, or postpone their entry, in order to acquire complete information. It is shown that, for a high (low) level of uncertainty, there is a pure (mixed)-strategy equilibrium. Moreover, the standard result in the literature—that uncertainty is a differentiation force, is only possible when the degree of uncertainty is small. An increase in the degree of uncertainty could force firms to delay their entry and lead to a socially optimal outcome.     

Strategic technology choice in regulated markets with demand uncertainty

This paper presents a simple model of a non-competitive market with demand uncertainty in which firms can choose their technology of production. Technology is characterised by two parameters: capacity and flexibility. The first has a strong commitment value while flexibility is needed to face uncertainty. Lack of competition requires active regulation to ensure that the price is not set at excessive level. When choosing their technology, firms take into account not only the effects of this choice on the opponent(s) but also the effect on the regulated price. In this framework, and because of regulation, firms have an incentive to strategically manipulate their cost (cost padding). This causes monopoly regulation aiming at improving allocative efficiency to be ineffective. In fact, by “tying its hand” to a low level of capacity, the monopolistic firm is able to get round the constraint imposed by the regulator. Increasing the number of firms in the market may restore regulation effectiveness. The reason is that if demand is sufficiently volatile, then firms strategically choose flexible techniques and this effect dominates over the incentive to manipulate costs in order to escape regulation. In this case, regulation is effective precisely because cost padding is hampered by firms’ non-cooperative behaviour.

A test of monopoly price dispersion under demand uncertainty

A test of the predictions of Dana’s (2001) model of monopoly price dispersion under demand uncertainty using ticket price data from Major League Baseball shows that ticket price dispersion changes systematically with demand uncertainty, verifying the predictions of the model.     

The value of information in oligopoly with demand uncertainty

This paper discusses the value of information in supermodular and submodular games, using a simple duopoly model where the level of demand is uncertain. It is shown that the value of information issuperadditive (resp.,subadditive) between players if the game issupermodular (resp.,submodular). For example, in a Bertrand (resp., Cournot) market with (possibly imperfect) substitute products, one firm's information acquisition increases (resp., decreases) the other firm's incentive to acquire the same information. Furthermore, when the game is either supermodular or submodular, the value of information is higher when the player isexpected to be informed according to the opponent's belief than when the player is expected to be uninformed; this result is reversed when the game has asymmetric modularity (i.e., one player's action is substitutional to the other's, and the latter's action is complemental to the former's). These qualitative observations have a potential to be applied to a larger class of games with uncertainty where payoffs are smooth (e.g., twice continuously differentiable) in actions and states.     

On the theory of monopolistic competition under demand uncertainty

Establishing a model of a monopolistically competitive industry in which risk-averse Cournot firms act under demand uncertainty and in which the output of individual firms and the number of firms in the industry are both endogenously determined by free entry and exit, this paper attempts to investigate the effects of demand uncertainty on the market equilibrium of a monopolistically competitive industry. It is assumed, for calculus simplification, that the firms are identical in the sense that they have the same monopolistic power and the same production technology. The paper presents some interesting and useful comparative statics results which are contrary to those proposed in the existing papers.This is a revised version of my paper which was firstly presented to the annual meeting of the Japanese Association of International Economics held in 1988 and then included partially in my book published in 1989. I am indebted to professors D. Bös, S. Fujino, M. Ohyama, M. Nishijima, to the members of the Public Economics Research Seminar in Bonn, and to two anonymous referees for their helpful discussions and useful suggestions. Any remaining errors, however, are my responsibility.     

Multiple variable factors,demand uncertainty,and the cooperative firm

It has been shown that the risk averse, cooperative firm producing its output with labor as the only variable input and selling this output in a competitive market will produce more than the cooperative firm operating under condition of certainty. This letter proves that this result may not apply to the case of the cooperative firm facing a stochastic demand and/or employing more than one variable input.     

Bond yield uncertainty and the demand for money : A comment

The purpose of this paper is to reconsider the work recently reported by Amihud that the demand for money is an increasing function of the risk of holding bonds. Our evidence from testing annual and quarterly Cambridge k and demand-for-money equations cannot confirm the positive and significant bond-yield uncertainty coefficient reported by Amihud in a semi-annual Cambridge k equation.     

An empirical note on bond-yield uncertainty and the demand for money

This paper empirically tests the effect of bond-yield uncertainty on the demand for money, as implied by the capital theory approach to the demand for money, suggested by Friedman and Tobin. It is expected that the demand for money is affected not only by the yield on bonds (which are a substitute asset), but it also in increasing function of their risk. The empirical tests, which employ two alternative measures of uncertainty (mean of squared deviations from the average, and the mean of squared deviation from a predictor obtained by exponential smoothing) seem to support the Friedman-Tobin hypothesis.