两岸货币清算机制内涵、困境及进程的探讨

完整的两岸货币清算机制是指解决两岸间美元、欧元、人民币、新台币等主要货币资金往来的制度性协议,这一协议由若干阶段性协议所构成,最终目的是实现人民币与新台币的直接兑换。大陆现有的四种跨境资金清算模式可以作为两岸货币清算机制的制度基础。受制于政治定位和资本账户管制,两岸货币清算机制迟迟未能签订。即便全面实现,在市场因素的驱动下,两岸依然会面临许多问题。     

The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability

The Chinese authorities described the management of the renminbi after its 2005 unpegging from the US dollar as involving a basket of trading partner currencies. Outside analysts have detected few signs of such management. We find that, in the 2 years from mid-2006 to mid-2008, the renminbi strengthened gradually against trading partners’ currencies within a narrow band. In mid-2008, the financial crisis interrupted this experiment and the bilateral renminbi/dollar exchange rate stabilised at 6.8. The 2006-2008 experience suggests that a shared policy of gradual nominal effective appreciation renders East Asian currencies quite stable against one another. Such a shared policy would create favourable conditions for regional monetary cooperation.     

Optimum international reserves and sovereign risk: Evidence from India

This paper empirically determines the optimal level of international reserves for India by explicitly incorporating the country's sovereign risk associated with the default on external debt. The optimum level of reserves is determined by minimizing the central bank's cost function, which consists of costs due to high reserve holdings and costs due to reserve depletion. The simulated optimum reserves for the period 1994–2010 indicate that actual reserves are higher than the optimum value across the sample period, except during 1997–1998.     

中国外汇储备最优规模的再思考

本文从中国外汇储备的现状入手,总结了最优外汇储备规模的研究现状及决定因素。根据中国货币当局的资产负债情况,分析了中国的外汇储备规模的影响。从权变管理的角度提出了最优外汇储备规模的理论上的决定方法。     

Comments on R. Cooper, M. Bordo and H. James: Exchange rate arrangements and disarrangements: prospects for a world currency

This note evaluates the prospects for a world currency, using as a departure point the papers by Bordo and James (2006) and Cooper (2006). The note argues that a world currency is unlikely in the foreseeable future and probably undesirable. Although more evidence is needed, there seem to be no strong forces towards the creation of new monetary unions among the countries with major currencies or between those countries and the periphery. Based on recent experience, the note also argues that one of the main benefits to establish a world currency, the elimination of exchange rate uncertainty, is likely less important than commonly believed. No matter how rigid a currency arrangement is, initiatives to dissolve it tend to appear as bad times arise. Still, the present equilibrium of no world currency leaves unresolved many difficult issues related to the functioning of the domestic and international monetary systems. Sergio L. Schmukler has prepared this note as a comment to the papers “Proposal for an OECD Currency” by Richard N. Cooper and “One World Money, Then and Now” by Michael Bordo and Harold James, presented at the conference “Regional and International Currency Arrangements,” February 24 and 25, 2006, Vienna, Austria, organized by the Bank of Greece and the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Central Bank of Austria). I thank conference participants for useful comments. I am also grateful to Jose Azar and Francisco Ceballos for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the World Bank.     

The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation

Cross-country differences in the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade is one reason for cross-country differences in estimated exchange rate coefficients in short-run balance of trade equations. If exports are invoiced in domestic currency while imports are invoiced in a foreign currency, a depreciation will increase the domestic currency value of outstanding import contracts, and may cause the balance of trade to fall in the short run. Countries with different invoicing patterns will have different effects on the short-run trade balance following a depreciation. We explore a simple theory of invoicing currency choice, drawing inferences regarding the likely choices for 14 countries. This allows a classification of countries according to the expected short-run balance of trade effect of a currency depreciation. Empirical estimates support the hypothesized groupings based on suggested currency invoicing patterns.     

Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen,the Chinese yuan,and the UK pound

We investigate bilateral currency pressures against the US dollar for three currencies: the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound during the period 2000:Q1 to 2009:Q4. We employ a model-based methodology to measure exchange market pressure over the period. Conversion factors required to estimate the pressure on these currencies are computed using a time-varying coefficient regression. We then use our measures of currency pressures to assess deviations of exchange rates from their market-equilibrium levels. For the yen, our measure of currency pressure suggests undervaluation during the initial part of our estimation period, a period during which the Bank of Japan sold yen in the foreign exchange market. We find persistent undervaluation of the yuan throughout the estimation period, with the undervaluation peaking at about 20% in 2004 and 2007. For the pound, the results indicate low pressure – suggesting a mainly free-floating currency – throughout the sample period. These results appear consistent with the policies pursued by the central banks of the currencies in question.     

The drachma, foreign creditors, and the international monetary system: tales of a currency during the 19th and the early 20th centuries

Fixed exchange rate regimes can be regarded as a “rule with escape clauses,” allowing the monetary authorities to temporarily suspend convertibility and enact a discretionary policy only under well-understood contingencies, such as wartime emergencies and financial panics. Seen from this perspective, adherence to the specie convertibility rule enables peripheral countries to establish credibility of the nation’s economic policy and, thus, to obtain access to the core countries’ capital markets. An example of a peripheral country is Greece during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The evidence assembled in the paper suggests that Greece tried very hard to adhere to “good housekeeping rules.”     

日元国际储备地位变迁对人民币国际化的启示

20世纪70年代,日元曾迅速赶上英镑,成为世界第三大储备货币,而21世纪初日元的储备地位却被英镑悄然越过;尽管日本的GDP长期高于德国,但日元在国际储备中的比例一直低于马克。数据分析表明,日元和英镑的储备地位相对变化源于币值的变动;而日元和马克储备地位差别源于商品与劳务进口总额的差别。中国相应参数的比较暗示：人民币有可能在实现自由兑换之前成为世界第三储备货币。     

Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998

This paper investigates the evidence for convergence in per capita incomes across 115 economies during the period 1950-1998 and examines the impact that international trade had on this process. Drawing on trade-conditioning within a distribution dynamics framework, that explicitly models frequency distributions of the cross sections of economies over time, this study suggests that trade patterns in the Golden Age were conducive to the formation of middle and high income groups or clubs of economies, but similar trade patterns (dominated by the rich economies) do not seem to explain the perpetuation of these group formations in the post-Golden Age period. If foreign trade is a key aspect of globalisation, why does it matter in accounting for the observed dynamics of the international income distribution during the Golden Age, but not during the decades since the first oil-shock? Further, the evidence from the ergodic (long-run equilibrium) distribution suggests that in the long term the established trade patterns favoured the growth of the rich at the expense of the poor economies across the world.     

The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?

This paper investigates what lessons may be learned from EMU for the enlargement of the euro area. It examines the situation of present and prospective EU countries in respect of nominal and real convergence. It suggests that fulfilling the EMU criteria consistently over the next few years will require huge efforts by prospective EU countries, with important output and employment losses. The possibility that present EU countries would have to bear part of these costs cannot be ruled out, with the risk of provoking tensions within the EU, in particular as regards the ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary policy decisions of the ECB.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.     

新时期来华留学生管理工作策略探究

留学生管理工作是高校工作中的重要组成部分。来华留学生的规模不断扩大,使留学生层次日益多元化,给高校的留学生管理工作提出了更高的要求。以哈尔滨师范大学校实际情况为例,从留学生的招生录取、日常管理、教学管理等几个方面讨论高校留学生管理工作中所出现的问题,并寻求在实际工作中行之有效的解决办法,以期为高校留学生管理工作的进一步完善和发展提供思路。     

Editorial: Trade,growth and economic inequality in the Asia-Pacific region

This editorial provides a brief summary of the results of our research project entitled “Trade, Growth and Economic Inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region”, which explores and documents the linkages between international trade and inequality in the Asia-Pacific Region. The project’s eleven research papers find some evidence that trade or FDI contribute to inequality, some evidence that it reduces inequality and some evidence of no causal relationship. These seemingly conflicting results are not at all surprising given the complex relationships involved and the different countries, time periods, and means of measuring inequality, trade and FDI our authors adopted.     

国际投资保护对我国企业对外直接投资的影响——基于海外子公司视角的实证研究

在逆全球化态势下,以限制外资为动机的国际投资保护在全球范围内蔓延,影响了跨国投资的可持续发展。文章基于海外子公司视角考察国际投资保护对我国企业对外直接投资的影响,通过匹配国泰安《海外直接投资数据库》和OECD《外资限制指数》数据库开展微观层面的实证研究,得出以下结论：①国际投资保护在总体上不仅降低了我国对外直接投资企业海外子公司的经营效益,还降低了母公司对海外子公司的持股比例;②国际投资保护对海外子公司的不利影响具有异质性,发达国家国际投资保护的不利影响大于发展中国家,国有企业海外子公司因国际投资保护遭受的不利影响更大;③国际投资保护会通过削弱海外子公司从东道国技术溢出中获取的收益而产生间接不利影响;④母公司拥有更多海外背景高管和对东道国的文化输出分别是调节国际投资保护对海外子公司负面影响的微观和宏观因素。文章的研究意味着国际投资保护会危害我国对外直接投资企业海外子公司的正常经营,因而应对国际投资保护是实现我国对外直接投资可持续发展的迫切需要。     

The structure and composition of international trade in Asia:: historical trends and future prospects

This paper provides an overview of the trade and foreign investment pattern of rapidly growing Asian economies in the past two decades. It also examines the underlying causes of the changing pattern of trade and considers key challenges for export-driven growth in the medium- to long-term.     

国际投资件数的变化对投资利益的影响

本文以寡头垄断的国际经济理论为背景,提出一个国际投资摩擦的理论模型,并以这个理论模型为基础,以美日投资摩擦为案例,通过理论模型和案例,分析国际投资摩擦形成的条件及其效果,探讨在寡头垄断的市场条件下,各国进行国际投资的利益分配的基本形式。     

“入世”十年中国外贸“井喷式”增长的新挑战及应对

论文分析了中国入世以来对外贸易增长的突出特征,提出了高额贸易背后给中国经济发展带来的新挑战,最后有针对性地就充分利用两个市场、实行外汇储备的积极管理、人民币的汇率改革以及转变外贸发展方式方面提出对策建议。     

The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review

For virtually a decade, the undervaluation of RMB yuan has become an issue of impassioned debate in international monetary economics. This issue kept the academic and policy circles engrossed in argumentative deliberations. That RMB yuan is undervalued is widely acknowledged. With China's emergence as an economic superpower of the future, this debate no doubt has considerable merit and ramifications. This article examines sang-froid the RMB yuan undervaluation and provides a review of recent and on-going research on it. The mid-2005 currency revaluation and modification of foreign exchange regime has enormous significance in this regard. It became a defining moment in the RMB yuan debate.This article attempts to examine whether accusations of currency manipulation made against China can hold, or are merely disingenuous. It encourages the reader to see whether the RMB yuan should be further appreciated. If yes, whether the misalignment is inordinately large or of incidental order which would be corrected with the passage of time. A good number of econometric exercises were undertaken, using differing methodologies. There was a complete lack of consensus on the misalignment of the RMB yuan. It has slowly appreciated since it abandoned its dollar peg in 2005. As the Chinese economy picks up further growth momentum, the currency appreciation is expected to accelerate.