A Note on Computation of Implied Volatility

This is a note on computation of the implied volatility in theBlack–Scholes formula to evaluate an accuracy of the computation.     

Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns

The Euler equations derived from intertemporal asset pricing models, together with the unconditional moments of asset returns, imply a lower bound on the volatility of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. This paper develops and implements statistical tests of these lower bound restrictions. While the availability of short time series of consumption data often undermines the ability of these tests to discriminate among different utility functions, we find that the restrictions implied by a number of widely studied financial data sets continue to pose quite a challenge to the current generation of intertemporal asset pricing theories.     

A Note on the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities for the Yen/U.S. Dollar Currency Option

This paper tests the relationship between short dated and long dated implied volatilities obtained from Tokyo market currency option prices by employing three different volatility models: a mean reverting model, a GARCH model, and an EGARCH model. We document evidence that long dated average expected volatility is higher than that predicted by the term structure relationship during the dramatic appreciation of yen/dollar exchange in the early 1990's. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns

We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors trade on firm‐specific and marketwide private information. The model is used to identify the component of order flow due to marketwide private information. Estimated trades driven by marketwide private information display little or no correlation with the first principal component in order flow. Indeed, we find that co‐movement in order flow captures variation mostly in liquidity trades. Marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns, and also currency returns.     

An Asymptotic Expansion Approach to Currency Options with a Market Model of Interest Rates under Stochastic Volatility Processes of Spot Exchange Rates

This paper proposes an asymptotic expansion scheme of currency options with a libor market model of interest rates and stochastic volatility models of spot exchange rates. In particular, we derive closed-form approximation formulas for the density functions of the underlying assets and for pricing currency options based on a third order asymptotic expansion scheme; we do not model a foreign exchange rate’s variance such as in Heston [(1993) The Review of Financial studies, 6, 327–343], but its volatility that follows a general time-inhomogeneous Markovian process. Further, the correlations among all the factors such as domestic and foreign interest rates, a spot foreign exchange rate and its volatility, are allowed. Finally, numerical examples are provided and the pricing formula are applied to the calibration of volatility surfaces in the JPY/USD option market.     

Preliminary Evidence on Takeover Target Returns in Spain: A Note

This paper measures the share price returns to Spanish takeover targets over the period 1990 to 1994. Using several estimation and testing methods, we show that target shareholders gain significant abnormal returns in the announcement period. In the first part of the year before the announcement period, firms that become targets do not show significant abnormal returns, though there is some significant upturn in the two months before the bid.     

The Weekly Pattern in Stock Returns: Cash versus Futures: A Note

This paper presents tests designed to determine whether the weekly pattern in stock returns continues after the introduction of futures trading on stock indexes and whether the pattern carries over to the futures market. Using data for the SP500, I find that the “Monday effect” does persist in the cash market, but there is no evidence of a similar pattern in the futures market.     

New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-Trading Periods: A Note

This paper decomposes daily close to close returns into trading day and non-trading day returns. We discover that all of the average negative returns from Friday close to Monday close documented in the literature for stock market indexes occurs during the non-trading period from Friday close to Monday open. In addition, average trading day returns (open to close) are identical for all days of the week. January/firm size/turn-of-the-year anomalies are shown to be interrelated with day-of-the-week returns.     

Overstatement of Implied Variance in the Dollar/Yen Currency Option Market

This paper investigates the predictive power of implied variancesextracted from the dollar/yen option prices. Implied variances areestimated from transaction prices of currency options traded on PHLXusing the option pricing model of Garman and Kohlhagen (1983). Incontrast to recent findings on stock and stock index options, theout-of-sample tests indicate that the implied variance is an upwardbiased estimator of future variance; and that the variance forecastsfrom GARCH and historical models do not contain significantincremental information in predicting future variance. Tradingstrategies are also developed to exploit the observed overstatementof variance in the dollar/yen option market. Traders that can executethe delta-neutral trading strategies at the observed markettransaction prices could lock in a significant profits during theperiod examined. However, for investors that facing highertransaction costs, the magnitude of the profits is generally notlarge enough to allow for abnormal risk-adjusted profits.     

The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization

Empirical studies of the modern theories of bond pricing typically choose proxies for the state variables in a rather arbitrary fashion. This paper empirically analyzes the question of the optimal spot rates to use as state variables. Our findings indicate that the four-year spot rate serves as the best proxy in the one-state-variable model. In the case of the two-state-variables model, the six-year rate and eight-month rate are identified as best. Tests of the out-of-sample prediction ability indicate that our model is superior to Macaulay's duration model and alternative proxies for state variables.     

Expected Inflation and Interest Rates in a Multi-asset Model: A Note

This paper analyzes the effect of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, in a theoretical model with money and two different bond types. The inclusion of three assets instead of the usual two causes the effect of expected inflation on the interest rates to deviate from unity. Depending on the sizes of the wealth and interest rate effects on the various asset demands, the effect of expected inflation could even be negative. Several special cases are also considered, and the implications for the interpretation of empirical results are discussed.     

汇率与股价收益的动态关联性研究——基于人民币NDF汇率与上证综合指数的实证分析

本文运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对2005年8月1日至2010年10月29日期间的人民币NDF汇率与我国股价收益的动态关系进行了实证分析,然后加入误差修正项建立EC-E-GARCH模型做进一步研究,结果两者间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并且互为因果关系,相互引领。人民币NDF汇率和上证综合指数对消息的反应各自存在不对称性,两者之间的信息传递和溢出不对称,存在不对称溢出效应。     

货币理论新视角：作为债券的货币

受西方宏观经济学追求微观基础的潮流影响,“哈恩难题”和“希克斯其存问题”成为长期困扰货币经济学的两大理论难题。本文试图在批判吸收前人理论成果的基础上对“哈恩难题”和“希克斯共存问题”作出自己的解答,指出货币实质上是中央银行代社会改造的一部分人对另一部分人的负债,货币的价值即源于货币的债券属性。如果这一命题能被普遍接受,则哈恩难题和希克斯共存问题便可迎刃而解。把货币看作是一种债券的观点为我们重新认识货币问题提供了新的视解。     

Asymmetry in Stock Returns Following Block Trades on the Australian Stock Exchange: A Note

A number of recent US. studies have examined the price impact of large (block) trades using intraday data. A major finding is that the price movement following block trades continues upwards following purchases but reverses following sales. This asymmetry in price behaviour, which suggests that block sellers pay a liquidity premium while block buyers do not, has been described as 'intriguing' and a 'key puzzle'. The purpose of this note is to determine whether the phenomenon exists on the Australian Stock Exchange. Evidence consistent with the 'puzzling' asymmetry is shown to exist when returns are measured from the block trade until the close of trade. Contrary to US. findings, which have shown that prices appear to reverse following both block purchases and sales in transaction time analysis, the asymmetry in price behaviour is also demonstrated to exist in transaction returns for the ASX. All results are found to be robust to a number of research design innovations and data partitions.     

Estimating Systematic Risk with Daily Security Returns: A Note on the Relative Efficiency of Selected Estimators

This paper utilizes asymptotic analysis and daily security returns to examine the estimation efficiency of two unbiased robust estimators compared with ordinary least squares. Our results demonstrate a relative efficiency gain for a nonparametric rank estimator and a relative efficiency loss for the minimum absolute deviation estimator when estimating the systematic risk of securities using daily security returns.     

基于文献解读的补充货币及其社区货币研究:功能、适用性和实现路径

补充货币及其社区货币的现实实践,引发了人们对其的研究与关注。通过对有关补充货币及其社区货币的若干文献解读,追溯其理论渊源,并把握其功能和适用性,为我们在当前的经济危机情势下,找寻到一条促消费、扩内需的有效实现路径,提供了借鉴和应用的重要启示。