A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

GUARANTEE THRESHOLDS AND THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

In recent years an important development in the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community has been the acceptance of the principle that the price guarantees can no longer be unlimited in nature, and that, if production exceeds a certain level, action should be taken to ensure that producers share in the responsibility for additional production. In 1981 the term ‘guarantee threshold’ was introduced to denote this level of production. Different mechanisms have been introduced in the various market regulations to give effect to the guarantee thresholds, and it is necessary for policy makers to realise that these mechanisms have different economic consequences. The case of milk is particularly instructive, for here the European Community in 1984 made a radical change by switching from the mechanism of reducing price support, if the guarantee threshold is exceeded, to a system of quotas for milk deliveries. Guarantee thresholds also exist for other products (cereals, processed fruit and vegetables, oilseeds) and in other cases there are analogous measures (sugar, wine, fruit in syrup, cotton). In the future development of the CAP, guarantee thresholds will continue to play an important role. How far can the Community expect to succeed in controlling its agricultural production by price or quantitative action, and what accompanying measures will be necessary?     

INPUT-OUTPUT FORECASTING OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY IMPACTS

Input-output coefficients and multipliers based upon them are increasingly being used to evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policies, yet there are a number of specific difficulties with regard to their use in this context. This paper articulates various criticisms which can be made, and tests their validity by comparing multiplier forecasts with out-turns from a series of eight input-output tables describing the Welsh agricultural sector. The predictive performance deteriorates rapidly as the time between base matrix and forecast year increases; more attention needs to be paid to the forecasting of final demand, spill-over effects into other sectors, and the functional relationship between labour input and gross output.     

农业支持政策结构变迁的国际比较分析

[目的]在多哈回合谈判再次要求削减黄箱政策背景下,通过量化比较分析典型发达国家和地区在多哈回合谈判前后农业支持政策结构变化趋势,为中国农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业支持政策改革提供方向借鉴。[方法]使用OECD农业政策评价指标对比分析欧盟、美国、日本和中国4个国家和地区农业支持力度、支持结构的变化趋势。[结果]发达国家和地区积极创新农业支持手段以替代市场价格支持,加快农业支持政策的市场化转变,强调支持政策与资源环境保护的交互作用,注重对农业知识和创新体系的资金投入。[结论]我国应持续加大对农业的支持力度,逐渐减少市场价格支持比重,创新支持工具并强化政策间的协调性,优化一般服务支持结构,加大对农业知识和创新体系的财政投入。     

SOME DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS FOR THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

This paper begins with a summary of the current state of Community financing of the Common Agricultural Policy. A brief survey of the currently discussed options for change leads to the conclusion that feasible developments will involve extension of the use of existing instruments rather than wholesale reform. If agreement on such extensions cannot be reached, there is likely to be unplanned nationalisation of agricultural support expenditures. The economic impacts of three measures to cope with surplus production using existing policy instruments-price reductions, co-responsibility levies and supplementary levies-are analysed, as is a possible budgetary solution to the surplus problem-surplus contributions. The paper concludes with some remarks about the desirability of these various development options and the role of economists in the debate about CAP reform.     

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALIAN AGRICULTURE

The relative importance of Italian agriculture in the EC, both in terms of net value added and of employment, has never been matched by a comparable impact on the CAP policymaking process. Mediterranean agricultural products in particular have been less favoured by the overwhelming common policy instrument of product price support, which has also a negative impact on the economy as a whole. The most relevant effects of the CAP are reviewed: the impact on resource allocation, including international income transfers, and the effects on the environment, as well as the effects on interpersonal income distribution. An evaluation of CAP is then made from different points of view: the likely perspective of present Italian farmers, a national perspective and an overall perspective, including the interests of non EC countries and future generations. Lower and more balanced price support, together with higher concern for structural and environmental policies especially in less favoured areas, are advocated.     

UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

[目的]非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡,进而导致肉类价格大幅波动,不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。[方法]文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区,不含港澳台、西藏）,包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区(1)的区域异质性。[结果]（1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异,在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性;（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。[结论]非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性,亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局,加快形成区域协同发展格局;健全动物疫病防控体系,建立多方协同联动机制;完善市场风险预警调控机制,加快实现产需顺畅匹配,确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。     

南疆地区农业结构变动对农业经济增长的影响

通过分析2000～2011年南疆地区农业结构及其变动对农业经济增长的影响,解析了南疆地区农业 结构及其变动情况,测算出农业产业结构及其变动对农业经济的贡献率和农业各部门产值增长对农业经济 增长的影响弹性。结果表明,南疆地区农业外部结构变动具有明显的成长特征;而农业内部结构变动速度 慢,调整方向不明,其中种植业的增长对南疆地区农业总产出增长的拉动能力最大,其次为牧业,渔业与 林业对农业经济的影响较小;目前南疆地区农业产业结构已对农业经济增长产生负面效应,农业产业结构 所蕴含的能量仍有待进一步释放,农业产业结构变动所带来的经济效益有待进一步开发,农业产业结构亟 待进一步调整优化。     

区域农业和农村发展政策执行效果评价研究

该研究以近年来区域发展政策中农业和农村发展政策为对象,文章分析了区域发展政策的主要特 点,总结了区域农业农村发展的主要内容:保障区域的粮食安全,增强农产品市场竞争力,改善农业生产 条件,统筹城乡和工农发展,解决地区贫困问题,维护民族团结和国家统一等。文章分析了执行区域农业 农村政策中出现的突出问题,包括区域发展差距仍然过大、促进区域协调发展的体制机制不健全、区域政 策与国家相关政策的协调不够等。最后提出促进区域农业农村发展的相关建议。     

CANADIAN WHEAT EXPORTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET: AN EXPLORATORY ECONOMETRIC AND POLICY ANALYSIS

This study attempts to measure with a two-region model some of the key economic relationships for Canadian wheat in the world market. The excess demand function facing Canadian wheat exports was found to be price elastic. Dynamic policy multipliers were derived to calculate the effects on wheat exports and the world price of changes in policy instruments including the initial payment for wheat.
Cette étude a pour but de mesurer, au moyen d'un modèle portant sur deux régions, quelques-uns des principaux rapports économiques entre l'économie canadienne du blé et les marchés mondiaux. La fonction de demande excédentaire des exportations canadiennes de blé s'est vérifiée élastique par rapport au prix. Les effets de changements dans les instruments de la politique agricole, tels que le paiement initial du blé, sur les exportation canadiennes et sur le prix mondial du ble ont eté calcule au moyen de multiplicateurs dynamiques.     

小麦价格政策对新疆农户供给行为影响的实证分析

［目的］价格政策是影响农户供给行为的重要因素,研究小麦价格政策对小麦产量和播种面积的影响,有助于理顺小麦价格形成机制,科学制定补贴方案,合理调控市场供求,确保口粮安全和农民增收。［方法］文章选取小麦产量、播种面积、综合价格政策等指标,分别构建C—D函数模型,以衡量各变量对新疆小麦产量和播种面积的影响。［结果］（1）对小麦产量有正向影响的指标按其作用由大到小排序依次为农业机械总动力、小麦播种面积、化肥使用量,而农业劳动力和农作物成灾面积对小麦产量具有负影响。（2）有效灌溉面积对小麦播种面积的影响最大,农作物受灾面积对小麦播种面积的影响最小,综合价格政策对小麦播种面积的弹性系数为019。（3）综合价格政策对新疆农户供给行为的影响机制是通过影响小麦播种面积进而影响小麦产量供给。［结论］扩大绿色有机小麦生产规模、增强价格政策调控、提升小麦有效灌溉水平和加强农业科技应用是提升新疆小麦供给水平和促进农民增收的有效途径。     

基于粮食安全视角的海外农业投资关注与政策启示

国际社会关切是中国优化农业"走出去"战略,提升全球农业领域话语权和影响力的重要依据。该研究应用文献评述方法,发现全球以土地权属转移为主要方式的海外农业投资规模快速增长,及其给全球粮食安全和营养等方面带来的复杂影响受到国际社会的广泛关注。尽管海外农业投资影响尚未形成共识,中国海外农业投资已经受到了国际社会的更多关注甚至是歪曲报道。中国农业"走出去"战略需要引导而非简单回应国际社会关切,并从尽快制定《农业对外合作规划》及提高农业对外合作的主动性和主导性等方面提出了政策建议。