TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NINETEENTH CENTURY BRITAIN *

International trade and economic growth have been considered intimately linked in nineteenth century Britain. Conventional estimates of Britain's gross national product, however, fail to account for changes in the terms of trade and may be misleading indicators of changes in real income. Revised figures that incorporate terms of trade changes are presented here. One finding is that conventional estimates of GNP overstate growth in real income early in the century when the terms of trade deteriorated.     

21世纪初中国生态旅游研究进展

旅游业带来的环境问题打破了"无烟产业"的神话,而生态旅游作为一种旨在寻求实现旅游业可持续发展的实践在世界范围内悄然兴起.进入21世纪,我斟学者对生态旅游开展了一系列探索和研究,通过对国内学术论文的分析,可以总结出近几年国内生态旅游研究的7大方向和20个具体问题.目前我国生态旅游研究在5个方面已经取得了一定的成绩,还有7个方面的问题需要在今后的研究中解决.     

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF AUSTRALIAN GDP IN THE 19TH CENTURY

This paper summarises the results of a new comparison of the level of Australian and U.K. real product in the 1890s, obtained by the direct deflation of money values of GDP by relative prices. The object of the study was to provide a check on the existing comparisons, obtained by extrapolation of time series of real GDP, as shown, for example, in Maddison (1982). Existing estimates imply that in the 1890s Australian GDP per capita was about 50 percent higher in the U.K. and U.S.A. and more than twice that for the average of 12 other western countries. The present study suggests these results probably overstate Australia's real GDP, and that Australian real GDP per capita was 36 percent higher than the U.K. in 1891 and 3 percent higher in 1900. Personal consumption per capita was 15 percent higher in Australia than in the U.K. in 1891, but about the same level in 1900.
Although this study compares prices and GDP in the colony of New South Wales with those in the U.K., the colony may be taken as representative of Australia as a whole.¹     

JAPAN IN THE NEW WORLD CONFRONTATION: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE*

In terms of the history of modern economic growth the major axis of world confrontation has always been between early and late comers to industrialization. Severe confrontation arises typically when a late-comer is believed to have developed a model of economic development capable of allowing it to catch up with or even overtake the economic power of the countries that industrialized early. Rises and falls of the various catch-up models in the modern history are examined. In this historical perspective the characteristics of confrontation are identified between the system of developmental market economies in Japan and Asian NIES and the system of liberal market economies in Western countries.     

建国以来广州在全国地位与作用的历史变迁

将建国以来的60年划分为不同的阶段和时期,在全国层面上选取一定数量的城市样本,通过测度城市中心性和城市职能及其强度的方法,并参考总部经济的研究成果,在对比分析中论述不同阶段与时期广州在全国的地位、作用以及它的演变过程.研究表明:广州在全国的地位由区域性中心城市上升为准国家级中心城市;广州的城市职能演变经历了由商业服务业-制造业-商贸流通与加工制造业-现代服务与装备制造业的过程,目前已经形成高度综合职能的外向型城市;发展与提升现代服务业的功能与水准,加强科研服务能力,提升总部经济实力,培育城市创新能力是广州今后城市发展的课题.     

新中国水电发展与建设成就

中国水能资源丰富,蕴藏量和开发量均居世界首位。新中国成立以来,我国水电事业的发展取得了长足进步。经过长期而巨大的投入,目前中国的水电资源在开发规模、工程建设、技术水平和管理体制等诸多方面均已取得重大进展,成为世界水电开发大国。2007年全国水电设备容量和发电量分别为14823万kW和4717亿kW.h,比1949年增长约400倍。资源开发的空间变化则表现出明显的由东向西转移。新中国成立初期,水电建设主要集中于经济发展及用电增长较快的东部地区,水电站的建设以中小型为主。改革开放、尤其"西电东送"战略实施以来,国家把水力资源的开发提到更加重要的位置。目前,以三峡工程为代表的中部和西南地区水力资源的开发后来居上,已建和在建的大型和超大型水电枢纽工程不仅主导着全国水电生产的现状,而且决定着中国水电事业发展的未来。     

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡的调整:历史的视角

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡发生了三次大的调整,每次调整的背景和方式不同。20世纪80年代美日之间的外部不平衡是通过高增长背景下刻意的货币制度设计来完成的,是一种"渐进"的调整方式。20世纪90年代东南亚国家外部不平衡的调整是在高增长背景下,由货币"错配"引发的组合投资逆转带来的以货币危机形式完成的,是一种"休克"的调整方式。而2006年以来至今的美国经济外部不平衡的调整是在金融危机加速全球经济急速下滑的背景下,更可能依靠实体经济总需求的下降来调整,将是一个相对缓慢的过程。     

21世纪初期世界石油流动的空间格局与流场特征研究

石油在全球范围内的流动,是一种地域广、规模大、具有巨大社会和经济影响的历史现象,在运作形态上具有明显的流场特征。从世界石油的供需格局入手,将全球划分为全流出型、基本自给型和全流入型等3种类型,并依据流动比率将石油的输出、输入地划分为输流中心、汇流中心两大功能类型。在此基础上,利用场的理论分析了石油流动的动力(流场位势差)及阻力(空间距离),并依据位势梯度将世界石油流动区域分为北美、中南美、非洲、中东、欧洲和欧亚大陆以及亚太等6个流场,同时对石油流动的两个主要通道——海上航线、陆上管道进行了分析,建立了21世纪初世界石油流动的轨迹框架。     

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE STOCK OF FIXED CAPITAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset. Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it. The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.     

生产率对中国经济增长的贡献:新的估计

在过去的二十年中,中国经济令人瞩目的增长已经吸引了许多的注意,并由此引发了这一领域内大量文献的出现。这些文献关注的一个问题是中国经济增长中生产率的作用。本文希望通过重新考察关于中国经济增长中生产率作用的争论,对生产率增长提供了一个最新的估计,并由此有助于理解近期的中国经济增长。本文的目的是提出并应用一种增长核算技术,来评估中国经济增长绩效,尤其是技术进步在中国经济增长中的作用。而关于后者的发现可能会对中国未来经济增长的持续性有着重要的政策涵义。     

THE VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD SERVICES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES*

This paper surveys the various estimates that have been made of the value of household services, summarizing the methods used and comparing the statistical results. It concludes that there is wide variability in the results obtained, much of which can be attributed to the differing methods. The highest values are obtained with methods based upon the opportunity cost of women in paid employment, lower with methods based upon the cost of a single housekeeper, and lowest with methods based upon pricing individual services performed. On the basis of time use studies, three factors are found to affect very strongly the value of services performed: family size, wife's market-work status, and age of youngest child. The value of total household services should include not only the wife's contribution, but also that of the husband and children, which may amount to as much as a third of the total. The increasing burden of more children, however, appears to fall mainly on the wife, with some relief from older children; the amount of time spent by husbands appears relatively invariant to number of children or work status of the wife.     

长江流域新世纪可持续发展的重大问题

长江流域占全国面积的15.5%,它所拥有的水、土、生物、矿产等整体资源优势和雄厚的社会、经济基础,成为我国经济的驱动轴。然而,随着人口的不断增加和经济的高速增长,流域人地关系日趋紧张,影响着长江流域资源和环境优势的发挥。文章分析了长江流域发展形势及其在全国的地位,指出:人口压力增大、资源安全不容忽视、生态环境恶化、经济效益下降以及整体性差等成为长江流域可持续发展面临的主要问题;控制人口增长、保持适速经济增长、建立资源节约型和“绿色化”的国民经济体系、建立流域生态补偿机制和管理模式以及对长远性问题坚持科学研究是实现长江流域可持续发展的关键所在。     

ON THE INTERPRETATION OF COVARIATE ESTIMATES IN INDEPENDENT COMPETING-RISKS MODELS*

Competing-risks models are becoming increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from the state (is. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation). However, as in many limited dependent variable models, the interpretation of the covariate estimates requires care. Despite assertions to the contrary in many published papers, it is shown that the estimated qualitative effect of a covariate on the hazard for risk j typically conveys no information on its qualitative effect on either the likelihood of, or expected time until, exit via j. This is because such magnitudes depend on the qualitative and quantitative effects of the covariate on other risks which cannot be ignored. The point is demonstrated by using UK data on the unemployment to re-employment transitions of a sample of male job losers.