A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper defines the concepts of indirect and direct risk premium effects and analyzes their properties in an exchange rate model. In the model, these effects are endogenously determined in a rational expectations equilibrium. For the effect of an interest rate shock, they have the opposite signs and the indirect risk premium effect can dominate the direct risk premium effect under reasonable parameters. This means that domestic short‐term bonds and foreign bonds are complements in the model even though domestic long‐term bonds and foreign bonds are substitutes. This model, focusing on the indirect risk premium effect and on the term structure of interest rates, can be combined with a small sample bias approach to explain stylized facts about the forward premium anomaly, which is found for short‐term interest rates, but not for long‐term interest rates.     

利率期限结构理论与模型研究评析

利率期限结构是指除了到期日之外其它条件均相同的情况下收益率与期限之间的关系.国外的学者对其进行了深入的研究.传统的理论研究主要从定性的角度探讨了收益率曲线的形状及其形成原因.而现代的理论研究则通过建立定量的模型来描述利率的随机动态特征,并运用相关的数据对这些模型进行了实证检验.借鉴国外的成熟理论,国内学者也对我国利率期限结构进行了研究,但尚不够深入,因此对其开展更进一步的研究是我们的重要任务.     

Forward Rates,Interest Rates,and Expectations Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes*

A model comprising spot and forward foreign exchange markets and a domestic credit market is used to examine the trade-off between volatility in the nominal exchange rate and domestic interest rate. It also shows how a slowly crawling spot rate can raise interest rate volatility and the amplitude of reserve flows. Finally, the paper extends a finding by Driskill and McCafferty that the exchange rate effects of external shocks are differently affected by the responsiveness of speculation to expected profits; high responsiveness makes the spot exchange rate more sensitive to foreign financial shocks but less sensitive to trade balance shocks.     

Interest Rates and Monetary Velocity in Australia and the United States*

Two problems have become evident in recent work on the demand for money. One is the implausibly long lags in the demand for money function, the other is a tendency for short-run instability during the 1970s. This paper argues that these problems stem from a point raised by Milton Friedman in 1959 but neglected subsequently: namely, the failure of reference cycles in interest rates to conform in timing with cycles in velocity. The cyclical association between interest rates and velocity is examined for both Australia and the US using cross-spectral methods, and evidence is found of the timing relationships which puzzled Friedman and led him to doubt that interest rates significantly affected the demand for money. After considering the implications of these findings, it is concluded that many models of the demand for money appear to be mis-specified, and the two problems mentioned above are symptomatic of this. A different approach to modelling the demand for money is outlined, in which a short-lead relationship in the money market is substituted for the long lags found by other researchers.     

中国利率期限结构的货币政策含义

本文采用Nelson-Siegel参数模型连续估计了中国利率期限结构曲线,实证了远期利率对未来即期利率的预测能力,分析了央行货币政策措施对利率期限结构的影响和实施效果,研究了利率期限结构与未来通货膨胀的关系。研究结果表明,中国利率期限结构能够为研究制定货币政策提供大量有用的信息。     

The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia*

This paper investigates the formation of price expectations by Australian manufacturing firms. It is shown that the reported expectations are generally consistent with the hypothesis that they are derived as conditional forecasts from the model used by firms in determining their actual price change behaviour. Tests are then undertaken to see whether the expectations are unbiased and efficient forecasts, the cross-section results indicating generally that they are neither, and hence not rational. Alternative time-series tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis, however, suggest that neither hypothesis can be rejected, implying rationality.     

The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia*

This paper analyzes the quantitative price expectations of consumers as obtained from consumer surveys. Price expectations are considered as functions of (i) past rates of inflation (ii) other economic variables, and (iii) consumer sentiment variables. The dominant influence on expectations is the most recent change in the consumer price index. Wage-indexation decisions and changes in the money supply also exert a significant influence on mean expectations. The variability of price expectations across consumers is proportional to the mean level of expectations.     

Nominal Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations

The properties of nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations are evaluated. Are they unbiased? How precise are they? To arrive at robust results, a range of different methods are applied on several US and UK data sets. The results show that the interest rate level is a reasonably good indicator of the level of inflation expectations. However, changes in interest rates are poor indicators of changes inflation expectations.     

利率期限结构的马尔科夫区制转移模型与实证分析

本文在利率期限结构中通过纳入马尔科夫(Markov)区制转移,将传统CKLS模型推广到更为一般的状态相依的CKLS模型,并将之应用于对我国1996年1月至2006年3月银行间同业拆借市场六组不同到期日之月度加权平均利率的研究。通过模型估计和检验分析,我们发现在不同区制下不同到期日利率漂移函数和扩散函数均呈现非线性,其中漂移函数表现为强烈的随机游走过程或均值回归过程,而扩散函数表现为低波动状态或高波动状态。此外,结果表明不同到期日利率期限结构可由缩压的马尔科夫区制转移CKLS模型获得。     

我国国债利率期限结构的静态实证分析

选取我国银行间国债某个交易日的数据,比较了三次样条模型、指数样条模型和NSS模型对国债价格的拟合效果,结果发现三次样条模型拟合效果最好;使用三次样条模型构建我国国债收益率曲线,并对其静态特征与形成原因做了分析;静态分析中显示我国国债长短期利差太低,并提出相关的政策建议。     

Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The short-term interest rate follows a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process that allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favour of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure captures stylized facts of the data. In particular, it implies a nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate.     

Inflation Expectations, Interest Rates and Arbitrary Income Transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over‐predicted and too low when they are under‐predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.     

中国离岸市场利率期限结构特征研究——基于面板宏观金融模型的分析

文章以在岸经济与市场为基础和参考,基于面板宏观金融模型,分别对离岸市场上属于短期的香港同业拆借利率(HIBOR)和属于中长期的离岸人民币(CNH)债券市场的期限结构进行了分析.研究发现,两个离岸利率市场具有以下的新特征:首先,离岸与在岸利率市场存在不同的运作规律,离岸利率市场甚至对部分在岸宏观经济变量的未来趋势有更好的判读,从而可用于决策参考;其次,离岸市场中投资者更愿意承担风险去持有人民币资产,这不仅是基于对人民币升值趋势的判断,也是人民币国际化的良好市场信号;最后,中长期的CNH债券市场与短期的HIBOR人民币市场之间的差异表明,人民币虽然在国际经贸往来中相对活跃,但离岸资本市场仍有待加速建设发展.上述结果有利于理解市场化利率的运作机制,也为中国离岸与在岸利率市场的发展完善以及利率市场化提供了参考信息.     

Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the dynamic Nielsen and Siegel interest rate model in forecasting Australian government bond yields. We compare a two‐stage OLS estimation procedure to a more powerful and robust state‐space framework estimated via a Kalman filter. We show that the one‐step approach generates smaller forecast errors than the two‐step procedure or a benchmark random walk model when forecasting the Australian government term structure across various horizons.