Technological Change in Illinois Agriculture, 1982-1984

This paper has two main purposes: (1) to develop a method for measuring the extent and bias of technical change which involves the use of non-parametric production frontiers and does not require information on prices or factor shares; (2) to apply this method to individual farm data drawn from a sample of Illinois grain farms for the years 1982 and 1984. The results indicate that technical innovation is land using in nature and that the rate of technical change is related to the size of farm.     

Market Impacts of Technological Change in Canadian Agriculture

Market impacts of technological change in Canadian agriculture are measured within a computable general equilibrium framework using 2001 input-output data with agriculture disaggregated to six sectors and 13 commodities. Technological change is modeled as productivity rises in the use of intermediate inputs and of primary factors. Impacts on output, intermediate use of output, foreign trade, final consumption, returns to primary factors, and relative prices are calculated for primary agricultural commodities and processed food products. Impacts are summarized as three general outcomes. First, supply managed sectors adjust to technological change differently than other agricultural sectors. In the former, quota rents increase while in the latter, outputs, exports, and final consumption increase along with declines of relative supply prices. Second, large relative price declines for other commodities lead to consumer gains. Third, producer gains increase when the international competitiveness of agriculture increases. Finally, we compare the differential impact of technological change with and without supply management. L'impact que le changement technologique au sein de l’agriculture canadienne a sur le marché est évaluéà l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) qui utilise des données entrées-sorties de 2001 pour six secteurs agricoles et treize produits de base. Le changement technologique est modélisé en termes de hausses de productivité dans l’utilisation d’intrants intermédiaires et primaires. L'impact sur les extrants, l’utilisation intermédiaire d’extrants, le commerce extérieur, la consommation finale, les rendements des intrants primaires et les prix relatifs sont calculés pour les principaux produits de base agricoles et produits alimentaires transformés. L'impact est classé en trois catégories de résultats. Premièrement, les secteurs soumis à la gestion de l’offre s’adaptent différemment des autres secteurs au changement technologique. Dans le premier cas, les rentes de contingentement augmentent tandis que dans le second, les extrants, les exportations et la consommation finale augmentent et les prix relatifs de l’offre diminuent. Deuxièmement, les chutes importantes du prix relatif d’autres produits de base entraînent des avantages pour le consommateur. Troisièmement, les gains du producteur augmentent lorsque la compétitivité de l’agriculture sur la scène internationale augmente. Finalement, nous avons comparé l’impact différentiel du changement technologique dans les secteurs soumis et non soumis à la gestion de l’offre.     

我国农业科技进步障碍因素分析与对策探讨

不论用什么指标来测度我国的农业科技进步程度，其水平都是较低的。我国农业科技对农业增长的贡献率不到40％，农业科技成果转化率不到35％，远远低于发达国家70％－80％的水平。这种过低的农业科技进步水平，一定程度上仍然是制约我国农业增长，农民增收的主要因素。本文从农业科技成果的供给，需求和推广等方面对障碍因素进行了系统分析，并对加强农业科研和科技推广提出了自己的观点。以供借鉴。     

中国农业生产率增长、技术进步与效率变化：1990～2003年

本文运用非参数的Malmqusit指数法，研究了1990—2003年期间中国农业全要素生产率及其构成的时序成长和空间分布特征。结果表明，1990—2003年期间中国农业全要素生产率年均增长2．59％，其中，农业技术进步指数年均增长5．48％，而农业效率变化指数反而年均下降2．78％。从各省区情况看，测算的29个省、自治区和直辖市中除云南、内蒙古、上海、贵州和西藏的农业全要素生产率是负增长外，其它24个省、自治区和直辖市的农业全要素生产率都实现了正增长。从构成上看，绝大多数省区呈现出农业技术进步与农业效率损失并存的局面。     

要素累积、全要素生产率与中国农业增长地区差异

本文在对改革开放以来中国农业的增长以及地区差异进行统计分析的基础上,提出一个待验证的假说:农业产出的省级地区差异主要来自于全要素生产率的差异.为验证该假说,本文使用随机前沿生产函数方法测算了各地区不同年份的要素弹性,据此将农业产出来源分为投入要素的累积和全要素生产率两个方面,并进一步采用方差分解的办法,考察了样本期间内农业产出的地区差异的来源.     

中国农业技术创新模式及其相关制度研究

本文针对农业技术创新过程的特殊性和我国农业技术创新模式与制度发展中存在的主要问题 ,提出了构建未来我国多元化合作农业技术创新模式的总体思路、备选类型以及完善农业技术创新制度与政策的具体建议。     

韩国的气候和农业(1799-1825)

文章主要依据《朝鲜王朝实录》、《朝鲜古代观测记录》和年轮年代学有关材料，阐明了1799—1825年韩国的气候与农业生产之间的相互关系。根据气温、降雨日和降雨量的变动，从历史文献和年轮年代学材料都可以看出，在这一期间，韩国也与同时期的其他国家一样，经历了“小冰期”的气候异常。旱灾、洪水、强雪、冰雹、地震、海啸等异常气候现象，不仅严重影响了当时的农业生产，也引发了严重的生存危机。     

Climate Change,Prairie Agriculture,and Prairie Economy: The New Normal

The risks and opportunities presented by climate change in the Prairie Provinces are related to the dry and variable climate—projected temperature increases that are greater than elsewhere in southern Canada; sensitivity of the water resources, ecosystems, and resource economies to seasonal and interannual variations in climate; and to large departures (e.g., drought) from normal conditions. Agriculture industry would face both positive and negative impacts. The net impacts on agriculture are not clear, as various aspects of adaptation are not well understood. Impacts would be felt on other sectors of the economy as well. A warmer climate will present new opportunities for revenue, cost savings, and recreation. Given that some uncertainties exist in our knowledge of impacts and appropriate adaptation measures, more cooperation between scientists and stakeholders would be desirable. Les risques et les avantages que présente le changement climatique dans les provinces des Prairies sont liés au climat sec et variable – augmentations de température prévues plus élevées qu’ailleurs dans le sud du Canada; sensibilité des ressources en eau, des écosystèmes et des économies fondées sur les ressources naturelles aux variations climatiques saisonnières et interannuelles; anomalies importantes (par exemple, la sécheresse) par rapport aux conditions climatiques normales. Le secteur agricole subira des répercussions positives et négatives. Les répercussions nettes sur l’agriculture ne sont pas claires, étant donné que divers aspects de l’adaptation au changement climatique ne sont pas encore bien compris. D’autres secteurs de l’économie subiront également des répercussions. Un climat plus chaud présenterait des avantages sur le plan des revenus, des économies de coûts et des loisirs. Compte tenu de notre manque de certitude concernant les répercussions et les mesures d’adaptation appropriées, une collaboration accrue entre les scientifiques et les parties intéressées serait souhaitable.     

对日本农业的短期考察及思考

一、农业发展的困境及趋势尽管从生产到销售的各个环节 ,日本农业现代化程度远比我国高 ;但因此而带来的成本 ,再加上高昂的劳动工资 ,导致日本农产品竞争力并不强 ,就不少农产品而言 ,日本比我国更有理由去担忧 (但日本对农业的保护远比我国多 )。这也是日本农业发展的第一个困境。以西瓜为例 ,调查期间 (2 0 0 0年 9月初 )日本西瓜的市场价已经下降 ,每公斤的零售价仍在 1 2 5日元左右 ;而 1 999年度市场价格高达 1 85日元 公斤。远远超过我国西瓜的市场价格 (当时自由市场销售价约为 1元 公斤 ,受时间和条件所限 ,未比较质量方面的差异 )…     

农村生产投入要素结构变化与农业技术发展方向

生产要素投入结构的变化是反映技术变动和发展方向的一个主要指标。过去20年里,我国农业生产要素投入结构发生了显著变化,但变化因产品而异,解释和研究这种变化对政府和私人企业投资农业具有重要的意义。本文的主要研究目的是揭示农业生产要素投入结构的变化趋势及内在原因。研究结果表明,土地密集型作物（如粮食）生产的资金（尤其是机械）对劳动的替代趋势极为显著,而劳动密度作物（如园艺作物）生产的劳动与资金很难替代。根据研究结果,本文提出了农业科技投资的一些政策建议。     

Six Decades of Total Factor Productivity Change and Sources of Growth in Bangladesh Agriculture (1948–2008)

This study applies the Färe–Primont index to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) indices for agriculture in 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61‐year period (1948–2008). It decomposes the TFP index into six finer components (technical change, technical‐, scale‐ and mix‐efficiency changes, residual scale‐ and residual mix‐efficiency changes). Results reveal that TFP grew at an average rate of 0.57% p.a. led by the Chittagong, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Dinajpur and Noakhali regions. TFP growth is largely powered by technological progress estimated at 0.74% p.a. Technical efficiency improvement is negligible (0.01% p.a.) due to stagnant efficiency in most of the regions. Decline in scale efficiency is also negligible (0.01% p.a.), but the decline in mix efficiency is high at 0.19% p.a. Decomposition of the components of TFP changes into finer measures of efficiency corrects the existing literature’s blame of a decline in technical efficiency as the main cause of poor TFP growth in Bangladesh. Among the sources, farm size, R&D investment, extension expenditure and crop specialisation positively influenced TFP growth, whereas the literacy rate had a negative influence on growth. Policy implications include encouraging investment in R&D and extension, land reform measures to increase average farm size, promotion of Green Revolution technology and crop diversification.     

Technological Change and Welfare in an Open Economy with Distortions

Traditional measures of technological change, such as the rate of technical change, are based on producer-oriented prices. Here, we employ a general equilibrium analysis of an open economy to examine how the consumer welfare gain from a technological change, measured as Hicksian equivalent variation, is related to the rate of technical change, the biases of the technological change, and tax distortions in the economy. An analytical solution shows these relationships in a readily computable framework, and demonstrates that the rate of technical change will equal the rate of welfare change in only very unrealistic cases.     

Seasonal Patterns and Regional Preferences in Japanese Household Demand for Seafood

This study addresses the little analyzed Japanese consumer demand for seafood. A demand system approach is used to analyze demand for a group of seafood products that make up the representative household's total expenditures on seafood for at-home consumption. The linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (U/AIDS) is applied to monthly data from 1980 through 1989 on the demand for seafood for three representative households: the average Japanese household, northern Japanese household, and southern Japanese household. Estimation results highlight effects of seasonality on demand for various seafood products; how seasonality effects defer by region; and differences in demand elasticities for seafood products both during the marketing year and across regions. Results from the analysis of the nationally representative household are contrasted with results from regionally representative house-holds to determine implications of viewing Japan as a single, homogeneous market.     

韩国的气候和农业(1799-1825)(续)

如前所述，19世纪初的朝鲜社会经历了全球性的小冰期的异常气候。这种气候现象给当时的农业生产带来了深刻的影响，进而引发了一系列生存危机。但是据我所知还没有学者以气候史的观点来阐明这个时期的农业问题。有研究证明当时水田的“移秧法”已得到普及，但是旱灾的危险还是有的。而