Imports in Keynesian Models*

This paper examines two main problems relating to the introduction of imports in the simple Keynesian model. First, imports need to be made a function of the aggregate demand components rather than income. Second, unless one assumes that intermediate imports are zero the solution of the simple Keynesian model will provide miltipliers which Overstate the exogenous demand change for domestic product.     

Issues in the Hidden Economy—A Survey*

This paper discusses a number of questions concerning the so-called hidden economy. What is the hidden economy? How big is it? Is it really growing? Does it matter? What should we do about it? The paper is not an exhaustive survey of the literature on the hidden economy. Its objective is more modest - namely to present an overview of the state of research, identify the major themes and issues and provide a framework for further work.     

Queues and Hierarchies

This paper examines the optimal structure of hierarchies when workers differ in the range of tasks they can perform. A hierarchical system may reduce costs by allowing most tasks to be handled by unskilled workers. This may however increase delay for those tasks which must pass through several layers before reaching the appropriate level. The paper characterises an optimal hierarchy when such a trade-off exists.     

On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models*

Macroeconometric models provide a formal and quantified framework that is an irreplaceable adjunct to the processes of policy thought. This article analyzes some recent developments in model structure and model use, and the interactions between them. Two major areas in which recent research has contributed to the ongoing process of model development are considered, namely the 'supply-side' approach to wages and unemployment, and the modelling of the exchange rate. An improved vehicle for macroeconomic policy analysis is an objective of such developments, and some issues surrounding the use of macroeconometric models in policy analysis are discussed     

Controlling Corruption in Hierarchies

We re-examine alternative hierarchical designs for controlling corruption as studied by Bac (J. Comp. Econom.22,2:99–118), since his formulation of the principal's problem was incomplete. In a basic hierarchy, while collusion between a supervisor and his subordinate agent may prevent implementation of high corruption outcomes, the principal would be able to induce relatively low corruption outcomes. In a two-level decentralized supervision chain, internal collusion in the upper part always induces collusion at the bottom but not vice-versa. For nonincreasing returns-to-scale monitoring technologies, the principal prefers a decentralized hierarchy to a centralized hierarchy.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 322–344. Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, United Kingdom.     

Hierarchies Versus Committees: Communication and Information Acquisition in Organizations

In most firms workers are divided asymmetrically in terms of authority and responsibility. In this paper, we view the asymmetric allocations of authority and responsibility as essential features of hierarchy and examine why hierarchies often prevail in organizations from that perspective. A key departure is that we consider a case where the authority relationship is defined only by the allocation of responsibility through contingent contracts. Within this framework, we show that the contractual arrangement that allocates responsibility asymmetrically often emerges as the optimal organizational form, which gives rise to the chain of command pertaining to hierarchical organizations.     

Aggregation By Industry In High-Dimensional Models*

Models of trading economies have become very large in dimensions and complex in structure. Conditions which are sufficient for aggregation in production and/or consumption are derived. They require the existence of linearly homogeneous indices of production and/or consumption in the industries or sufficient similarity among agents. These methods are applied to the Armington model and to a group of models in which the commodities in an industry are denned on a continuum. the results are applied to the method of constructing general-equilibrium models with many commodities, tests of comparative advantage, and the measurement of effective protection in multicommodity industries.     

Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS*

This article uses a simple New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a prior for a vector autoregression, and shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting, and can be used for policy analysis.     

The Hartwick Rule: Myths and Facts

We shed light on the Hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule. We extend earlier results by establishing that the Hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man-made and naturalcapital. We use a new class of simple counterexamples (i) to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable, and (ii) to point out deficiencies in the literature.     

A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models*

This paper compares a number of structural and times-series models on the basis of their accuracy in forecasting the A ustralian-US dollar exchange rate out of sample. Purchasing power parity, forward exchange theory, static and dynamic specifications of both the flexible price and sticky price monetary models, and univariate ARIMA models are considered in the paper. Exchange rate forecasts are generated at horizons of one to four quarters. In contrast to overseas results which support the view that the exchange rate follows a random walk, several models in this study are found to generate forecasts superior to the random walk model.     

Substitution,Income, and Intertemporal Effects In Currency-Substitution Models*

Empirical studies which aim to determine the extent of international currency substitution typically focus on the coefficient associated with the anticipated rate of depreciation of the domestic currency or on the foreign interest rate in the domestic money demand equation. an intertemporal optimizing model is used to obtain a money demand function which shows that the anticipated exchange-rate change and the foreign interest rate capture an income effect and an intertemporal income or substitution effect. Using these theoretical results, the findings from empirical studies are examined to show circumstances in which international currency substitutability may have been overstated or understated.     

Efficient Allocations with Hidden Income and Hidden Storage

We consider an environment in which individuals receive income shocks that are unobservable to others and can privately store resources. We provide a simple characterization of the unique efficient allocation of consumption in cases in which the rate of return on storage is sufficiently high or, alternatively, in which the worst possible outcome is sufficiently dire. We show that, unlike in environments without unobservable storage, the symmetric efficient allocation of consumption is decentralizable through a competitive asset market in which individuals trade risk-free bonds among themselves.     

中国城镇居民家庭资产—负债现状与成因研究

利用2009年"中国城镇居民经济状况与心态调查"数据,本文细致考察了中国城镇居民家庭资产—负债的现状与成因。描述性统计表明,家庭资产随着户主年龄、教育程度和家庭收入水平提高而上升,家庭负债则恰恰相反,家庭资产—负债存在明显的地域差异。实证研究发现,户主的年龄、受教育程度和健康状况以及家庭收入和人口规模不仅是家庭是否拥有资产/负债最重要的决定因素,也是家庭资产负债额的重要影响因素;进一步研究表明,家庭净资产也主要受到这些因素的影响,但其影响程度因家庭净资产量不同而不同。本文进而研究了家庭资产—负债状况的稳定性,发现户主年龄较小、教育水平较低和健康状况较差以及人口规模较大的家庭更容易受到金融市场不利冲击的影响。     

International Capital Movements In the Solow and Overlapping Generations Growth Models*

This paper examines capital movements in the overlapping generations and Solow models. For the overlapping generations model, a simple compensation scheme is developed to show how the gaining generation(s) can always compensate the losing generation(s) and still gain in the move from autarky to free capital mobility. Moreover, unlike the Solow model, the move to an open economy for the overlapping generations model has a tendency to reduce the assets held by the capital-exporting country.     

Simulation Gaming in the Managerial Economics Course

Solow examines the seeming disarray of the economics profession, particularly with regard to macroeconomics, and attempts to indicate why this should be the case. He concludes with a bit of advice and a brief list of objectives for the first course in economics.     

Wages in the East German Transition Process: Facts and Explanations

We analyze wage developments in the East German transition process both at the macro- and at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we draw special attention to the important distinction between product and consumption wages, describe the development of various wage measures, labor productivity and unit labor costs in East Germany in relation to West Germany, and relate these developments to the system of collective wage bargaining. At the microeconomic level, we describe changes in the distribution of hourly wages between 1990 and 1997 and analyze the economic factors determining these changes by way of empirical wage functions estimated on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel for East Germany. The paper also draws some conclusions on the likely future course of the East–West German wage convergence process.     

A Comparison of Four Macroeconometric Models of the Australian Economy*

For more than a decade, macroeconometric models have been used in Australia as tools in policy analysis and as aids in the task of forecasting major economic variables. Until recently, however, not much work had been done in comparing these models. Challen and Hagger (1979a, 1979b) provide a useful introduction to existing Australian models which includes a summary of simulation studies previously undertaken with these models. In the current paper, the economic content of four of these models is summarized in a simple theoretical framework. Simulation analysis is also used to examine the dynamic adjustment mechanisms associated with the theoretical structure of each model. A general conclusion of this paper is that more work is needed on model evaluation in Australia, based on a wider range of criteria than have been used in the past.     

The Organization of Production and its Publics: Mental Proximity,Market and Hierarchies

The paper introduces mental proximity as an ideal-type criterion for assessing the organization of production, and positions it as a benchmark alongside markets and hierarchies in a three-dimensional space. Following a Deweyan approach, the criterion is focused on democratic deliberation espoused by necessary values: the rejection of controlling influences, positive freedom, inclusion on equal terms, informed participation, the desire to reach a consensus, sympathy, mutual respect, reciprocity, and continuous learning. We also identify a community network as a complex of people who seek to relate to each other in accord with mental proximity, and discuss influences on their search.