THE RETURNS FROM RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIAN BROADACRE AGRICULTURE*

Many people share the view that too little is invested in R & D in agriculture. The relationship between several measures of productivity and research expenditure was estimated using data from ABARE's surveys of broadacre industries and a new data series on R & D expenditure for the period 1953 to 1988. The internal rate of return to research was estimated to be in the range of 15 to 40 percent which does not provide strong evidence that Australia is either under- or over-investing in public research.     

Variability in wheat export demand elasticity: Policy implications

Agricultural economists and policy makers in the United States believe that the magnitude of the export demand elasticity is one of the most important parameters used in farm policy decisions. However, past empirical estimates show wide variation in the size of the U.S. export demand elasticity. Reasons for this wide variation go beyond differences in model specification, estimation methods, and period of estimation to involve factors such as trade policies and changes in the supply and demand conditions of foreign countries. In view of the continual variation in magnitude, the elasticity of export demand should be viewed as a variable rather than as a parameter. In this study, U.S. wheat export demand elasticities are computed using a world wheat trade model. The estimates show that the elasticities vary significantly over time. They also reveal that elimination of trade barriers would more than double wheat export demand elasticities.     

Rural-urban gradient analysis of ecosystem services supply and demand dynamics

Urban regions are important places of ecosystem service demands and, at the same time, are the primary source of global environmental impacts. Although there is broad agreement on the importance of incorporating the concept of ecosystem services into policy strategies and decision-making, the lack of a standardized approach to quantifying ecosystem services at the landscape scale has hindered progress in this direction. Moreover, tradeoffs between ecosystem services and the supply/demand ratio of ecosystem services in urban landscapes have rarely been investigated. In our paper, we present a method to quantify and map the supply and demand of three essential provisioning services - energy, food, and water - along the rural-urban gradient of the eastern German region Leipzig-Halle. This urban region has experienced significant socio-economic dynamics and land use changes since the German reunification in 1990. The results show that both the demand and the supply of ecosystem services changed considerably during the time span under consideration (1990-2007). We identified an increasing supply/demand ratio of food and water but a decreasing supply/demand ratio of energy. In addition, the pattern of ecosystem demands shows a levelling of rural-urban gradients, reflecting profound modifications of traditional rural-urban relationships. The changes of ecosystem service supply gradients are determined more by land use intensity, such as the intensification of agricultural production, than by land cover changes such as urban sprawl. The comparison of supply/demand ratios and rural-urban patterns of ecosystem services can help decision-makers in landscape management in striving for a sustainable balance between resource supply and demand.     

THE CALCULATION OF RATES OF RETURN ON AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH FROM PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS

A general framework is described whereby, using production functions, the rate of return on additional agricultural R & D can be calculated. This enables existing procedures to be critically reviewed. Illustrative results are given which indicate that the rates of return found in previous studies tend to be overestimates. It is also pointed out that these studies usually refer to well in the past, when the level of the agricultural research investment was generally lower and rates of return consequently larger than might now be expected. It is, however, concluded that the production-function approach needs extension and refinement, and better values of key parameters determined, before it could be used quantitatively as a determinant of research policy.     

Levy-funded research choices by producers and society

Commodity levies are used increasingly to fund producer collective goods such as research and promotion. In the present paper we examine theoretical relationships between producer and national benefits from levy-funded research, and consider the implications for the appropriate rates of matching government grants, applied with a view to achieving a closer match between producer and national interests. In many cases the producer and national optima coincide. First, regardless of the form of the supply shift, when product demand is perfectly elastic, or all the product is exported, domestic benefits and costs of levy-funded research all go to producers and they have appropriate incentives. Second, if research causes a parallel supply shift, the producer share of research benefits is the same as their share of costs of a levy, and their incentives are compatible with national interests. In such cases, a matching grant would cause an over-investment in research from a national perspective. However, if demand is less than perfectly elastic, and research causes a pivotal supply shift, the producer share of benefits is smaller than their share of costs of the levy, and they will under-invest in research from a national point of view. A matching grant can be justified in such cases, however the magnitude of the optimal grant is sensitive to market conditions.     

Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level

In the early 1980s, a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security, following Amartya Sens (1981) claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern, affecting the poor's access to food, than a supply concern, affecting availability of food at the national level. Despite the wide acceptance of Sen's thinking, many controversies including the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles. This study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following Singh et al. (1986) , and parses out the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in determining household food security in southern Ethiopia. Based on results of a test of full/reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security, we conclude that the supply‐side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand‐side variables.     

中国天然橡胶安全问题的探讨

对中国天然橡胶产量、消费量及进口量等在世界上所处状态及国内天然橡胶供需关系进行形势分析,发现中国天然橡胶安全日趋严峻,不利影响因素日益增多,将严重威胁到国家的经济安全。在此基础上,重点从天然橡胶安全的涵义及内容、影响因素、特征、指标体系等进行探讨,并据此提出应维持不少于30%的天然橡胶自给率、最低天然橡胶年库存量为50万t左右、天然橡胶外贸依存系数低于70%、天然橡胶消耗增长系数为100%左右等对策去应对的中国天然橡胶安全。     

全球油气资源形势与发展趋势

根据对国际能源署关于全球石油天然气资源的分布情况及产销供需情况资料的分析可知,世界石油天然气资源丰富,可满足未来20—30年左右世界经济发展的需要,未来油气资源无论是供给还是需求均呈稳定增长态势,油气价格将在波动中上升,维持高位运行,亚太地区国家石油安全形势更加严峻,由于世界油气资源分布极不均衡,油气资源作为世界重要战略资源的地位在未来20—30年内将不会改变,并仍将是国家和地区间经济争夺的焦点。     

论地质调查经济的几个理论问题

从理论上说 ,地质调查工作成果因其具有潜在的排它性和明显的竞争性而不属于公共产品 ;从实践上说 ,由于地质调查工作成果只能由政府而不是由市场来提供 ,则属于公共产品。因而地质调查工作成果是准公共产品 ,地质调查工作的需求主体与供给主体是相同的 ,并且其需求变化取决于国家财政投入。供给约束是地质调查工作的特点 ,经费不足则是其常态。因此 ,在地质经济研究中 ,应注意地质调查经济的特点     

Supply side constraints in the Israeli housing market—The impact of state owned land

House prices in Israel have risen since 2008 by as much as 98%. Much of this increase is attributed to low levels of housing supply and housing supply elasticities. In Israel land is frequently owned by the state. This results in heavy government involvement in the housing market through the control of land supply via land tenders. This paper estimates the impact of state owned land on the Israeli housing market focusing on these unusual conditions of land supply. A model for the creation of new housing units is proposed. This incorporates land tenders, enabling the estimation of housing supply dynamics with an accurate measure of public land supply. The model is tested using regional panel data which facilitates the dynamic estimation of national and local supply elasticities and regional spillovers. The paper uses novel data sources resulting in a panel of 45 spatial units over a span of 11 years (2002–2012). Due to the nonstationary nature of the data, spatial panel cointegration methods are used. The empirical results yield estimates of housing supply price elasticities and elasticities with respect to land supply. Results show that housing supply is positively impacted by governmental decisions but the impact is low. Supply elasticity with regard to government land tenders stands at around 0.05 over the short run and 0.08 over the long run. Government policy of offering land in low demand areas and fixing minimum-price tendering does not seem to affect housing supply. Policy implications point to the need for more sensitive management of the delicate balance between public and private source of land in order to mitigate the excesses of demand shocks.     

乡村旅游转型发展的ASEB/ANP评价*——以鸭绿江风景名胜区为例

[目的]乡村旅游转型发展不仅与旅游产品供需侧的结构有关,而且也与乡村振兴战略五大目标协调一致,对其综合评价有助于促进乡村旅游与乡村振兴的协调发展。[方法]以鸭绿江风景名胜区的6个边境滨水乡村为例,建立了乡村振兴战略五大目标与ASEB分析框架相结合的要素评价体系。采用ASEB分析框架与网络层次分析法(ANP)相结合的方式对乡村旅游转型发展的供需侧结构进行综合评价。[结果]传统的产业及空间要素仍然是供需侧背景、活动、体验及利益4个维度中得分值最高的要素;空间体验综合评价的顺序是:獐岛村﹥河口村﹥大鹿岛村﹥绿江村﹥浑江村﹥古楼子乡;背景与活动(AS)均高于体验与利益(EB),旅游供给侧的输入大于需求侧的输出。[结论]乡村旅游转型升级与乡村振兴是一种耦合共生的发展过程,是一种复杂的目标型网络化过程;由第一、第二及第三产业融合形成的产业链构建了产业型休闲体验空间,以第六产业的方式促进了乡村旅游转型发展;案例地区的乡村旅游发展分别处于转型发展的4个阶段;采用"产业融合+旅游体验"的方式营造乡村产业型体验空间,拓展乡村旅游转型发展的内涵,提升乡村振兴发展的综合水平。     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

林农公益林补偿收益权质押贷款可得性研究

基于双变量Probit模型从需求和供给两个角度对浙江省丽水市公益林补偿收益权质押贷款试点地区255个林农的贷款可得性、内在联系及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:60.39%的林农对公益林补偿收益权质押贷款有需求,11.76%的林农成功获得贷款;丽水试验区公益林补偿收益权质押贷款存在供给范围较窄、公益林小户和大额资金需求得不到有效满足等问题;户主受教育程度、家庭人口负担、公益林面积、贷款期限是影响林农收益权质押贷款需求决策的因素;在需求约束下,年龄小、受教育程度高、公益林面积大、优质存量客户的贷款可得性更高,并且公益林补偿收益权质押贷款的可得性更依赖于林农家庭经济状况。     

How to Understand High Food Prices

Agricultural price booms are better explained by common factors than by market‐specific factors such as supply shocks. A capital asset pricing model‐type model shows why one should expect this and Granger causality analysis establishes the role of demand growth, monetary expansion and exchange rate movements in explaining price movements over the period since 1971. The demand for grains and oilseeds as biofuel feedstocks has been cited as the main cause of the price rise, but there is little direct evidence for this contention. Instead, index‐based investment in agricultural futures markets is seen as the major channel through which macroeconomic and monetary factors generated the 2007–2008 food price rises.     

Wheat policy and economy-wide reform in Brazil

In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy-induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector-specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic antiinflation policy, and it coincided with other economy-wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.     

Middlemen behaviour and generic advertising rents in competitive interrelated industries

This article focuses on the role of middlemen in determining the returns to generic advertising in a competitive industry where supply is uncontrolled, the price of marketing inputs is endogenous, and retail markets are interrelated through consumer preferences. Theoretical analysis suggests farm-gate returns (quasi-rents) are overstated when input substitution at middlemen level is ignored, a result confirmed in the empirical application. As for mark-up behaviour, represented by the farm-retail price transmission elasticity, a general result is that farm-gate returns to generic advertising always increase as the transmission elasticity decreases, provided retail demand is more elastic than input substitution. Endogenising the price of marketing inputs has little effect on advertising rents.     

论我国铁矿资源的进口依赖形势

我国铁矿资源总量丰富,但是贫矿多、富矿少,矿石类型复杂,暂难利用矿多。因此,国内铁矿石供给能力有限,且呈下降趋势。我国国民经济处于高速增长期,对钢材的需求持续增加,钢材需求的饱和点远未达到,强大的需求刺激钢铁工业快速发展,产能持续扩大。由于需求的增加和国内铁矿资源供给能力的下降,铁矿石供应缺口越来越大,进口铁矿石的数量急剧攀升。我国铁矿资源的进口依赖形势已成定局。应在继续寻找和开发国内新的铁矿原料基地的同时,采取多种方式、多元化进口铁矿石,并提高废钢铁利用率。     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

Imperfect competition,functional forms,and the size and distribution of research benefits

The effects of functional forms for supply and demand on the size and distribution of the returns to research are examined under a range of forms of competition. Under perfect competition, the choice of functional form is relatively unimportant for the estimation of research benefits. Under imperfect competition, the combination of the choice of functional forms for supply and demand and the nature of the research-induced supply shift can have profound implications for the results. Functional form plays a much more important role than in the competitive model. The most important contrast is between the constant elasticity model and the linear model (along with various cases of a generalized linear model). These findings are illustrated using a combination of analytical results and numerical simulations.     

THE ECONOMICS OF INSURING CROPS AGAINST DROUGHT

The necessary conditions for the existence of a financially viable crop insurance scheme against drought are examined. A supply and demand model for crop insurance is developed which identifies the parameters that are critical to the efficiency of such a scheme. The values of these parameters are estimated by using data from the Australian wheat industry. It is found that crop insurance against drought would appear to be unattractive from an efficiency point of view.