AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: FROM THE PUNTA DEL ESTE DECLARATION TO THE GENEVA ACCORD

This paper traces the progress of the agricultural negotiations in the current GATT round from the Ministerial Declaration at Punte del Este, Uruguay, in September 1986 to the Geneva ‘Accord’ in April 1989. It summarises the initial position papers of the major participants, discusses the impasse at the Mid-Term Review (Montreal, December 1988) and relates the Geneva Accord to the groundwork laid down in the preceding negotiations. Finally, the paper comments on some of the implications of the accord and on the prospects for a successful conclusion for the negotiations.     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

REBALANCING EC CEREALS PROTECTION AND THE GATT URUGUAY ROUND

This paper considers the proposals put forward by the EC at the GATT Uruguay Round in December 1990. The EC's objective of rebalancing the Common Agricultural Policy in the context of a partial liberalisation of agricultural support on the world cereals market is assessed, as is the choice of base year from which liberalisation would have been initiated. The US's proposal for more significant reduction in agricultural support is also considered. The results show that the EC would not necessarily have benefited from rebalancing, since the effects would have depended on the choice of base period. For example, with 1986 (1988) as the base year, net welfare changes would have been 20 (50) percent higher (lower) with rebalancing, relative to the case without. Not surprisingly, the more substantial liberalisation proposed by the US would have resulted in greater net welfare gains even if rebalancing was conceded by the US.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

西南地区农业跨越式发展战略

结合西南地区农业发展的四大优势,五大限制因素,提出了西南地区农业实现跨越发展的必要性和可行必天此基础上,提出了西南地区农业跨越式发展的七大目标,以及补贴 述目标的政策建议和五大发展模式。     

ON THE NEGLECT OF DYNAMICS,RISK AND MARKET INSULATION IN THE ANALYSIS OF URUGUAY ROUND FOOD TRADE REFORMS*

The substantial investment in models of international food markets prior to and during the Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations has been a mixed blessing so far as the prospects for reform are concerned. At worst, results from these models have misled the negotiations because they have most often ignored a primary concern lending domestic political support to food market interventions, namely the avoidance of risks borne of dependence on international markets. In this paper the reasons for market insulating policies are reviewed and their links with protection elucidated. Some errors that have stemmed from the application of 'standard' but inappropriate models are noted. Finally, the implications of extending the standard method to include dynamic behaviour and market insulating policies are examined.     

基于“钻石模型”的广东区域农业特色产业发展战略研究

借鉴国内外区域农业特色产业发展经验和国家相关政策,结合广东省实际情况,通过对农业特色产业进行识别,提出了影响特色产业发展的6个因子。对如何健康持续发展特色产业,运用"钻石模型"进行了系统科学的影响因子分析,确定各个因子对产业发展的起到的作用,形成广东省区域农业特色产业影响因素"钻石模型",并在此基础上确立区域农业特色产业发展战略和重点发展区域。     

ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR WATER IN COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE*

The foundation of the demand for water in agriculture is the water response functions of the various crops grown. As the productivity of water is largely determined by the lime at which a crop is irrigated, both intra-seasonal and seasonal demand schedules for water exist for the firm and so for the region. The efficient interregional allocation and pricing of water between users may be assessed using spatial equilibrium models. While a profit maximising objective may be valid for the firm, as the level of an analysis moves to the regional or the inter-regional complex, increasing attention must be paid to non-economic goals which must be incorporated within societies' objective. La demande ?eau dans ?agriculture se base sur les fonctions du besoin ?eau des récolies différents. Tandis que la productivité de ?eau est déterminé en grande parlie selon la saison pendant laquelle une récolle est irriguée, des programmes de demande intra-saisonnier et saisonnier pour ?eau existe pour ?exploitation, ainsi que pour la région. ?allocation efficace au niveau inter-régional et ?établissement ?un prix pour ?eau parmi les utilisateurs peuvent être évalués en se servant de modèles ?equilibre spatial. Tandis qu'un but de maximisation de profit peut être valide pour ?exploitation. au moment ou une analyse comprend le systems régional ou inter-regional, il faut aussi considérer les buts non-économiques qui doivent etre incorporés dans les objectifs sociaux.     

寻求我国农业产业化的新道路

建设社会主义新农村是构建和谐社会最为重要的内容。而解决"三农"问题的核心在于解决农业"怎样生产"的问题,即必须摆脱目前仍以家庭为作业单位、以土地的分散经营和农户自营的市场销售为主的农业生产方式,走农业产业化的道路。该文从国际经验的对比分析出发,论述了我国农业产业化发展的约束条件和积极因素,指出了当前我国农业产业化发展的重点和基本路径。     

GEOSS背景下的农业遥感监测

当前在GEOSS背景下,对国际地观测已经进入的广义遥感时代,农业遥感监测也应该适应这种变化,抓住有利契机,深化研究与应用。该文介绍了GEOSS的产生背景及其框架的主要内容,并建议在GEOSS背景下,加强我国农业遥感监测,建立更加高效可靠的农业遥感监测系统,为区域及国家粮食安全及可持续发展提供信息服务与决策支持。特别是应该加强多传感器组网与虚拟组网技术、数据同化技术等关键技术的研究与应用,加强国际交流与合作,促进我国农业遥感监测技术创新与进步。     

长江经济带省域农业比较优势分析及协同发展对策

[目的]通过分析长江经济带农业协同发展的优势条件及限制性因素,以及各省域农业比较优势,为长江经济带农业协同发展提供科学依据。[方法]文章用实证分析法,采用农业相对比重指标(AG)和显示性比较优势指标(RCA)对长江经济带各省域农业相对比重和比较优势进行深入剖析,并分析了近几年长江经济带各省域农业的相对比重和显示性比较优势的变化趋势。[结果]长江经济带整体农业占其经济总量比重较低,农业相对比较优势不明显;各省市的农业比重和相对比较优势差异明显;近年来,长江经济带农业比重和比较优势波动平缓,甚至有略微下降趋势。[结论]应加强各省域农业部门合作,做好发展规划,强化顶层设计;充分发挥农业比较优势,优化区域农业布局;利用辐射效应,加强农业发展要素流通;积极创新农业发展新业态,建立农业协同发展激励机制。此外,完善和统筹长江经济带区域农业公共服务和基础设施建设是推动沿江省市农业协同发展的前提和必要保障。     

兰州市特色农业资源开发对策研究

该文对兰州市主要特色农业资源及其开发现状进行了调研分析,明确提出了兰州市特色农业资源开发存在的问题、开发重点及其区域开发格局,并从资源开发中要解决的问题、需避免的3个误区、要正确处理6种关系和落实的4项具体措施等方面提出了兰州市特色农业资源的开发战略。     

大力发展特色农业 增强四川农产品市场竞争力

特色农业是实现资源优势、产品优势和市场优势有机结合的最佳选择.文章阐述了四川省发展特色农业的意义;分析了发展特色农业的有利条件,以及发展特色农业的基本思路、重点主导产品、发展目标和设想;最后以9个方面论述了发展特色农业的政策措施.     

OPTIMAL GROWTH STRATEGIES FOR PASTORAL FIRMS IN THE QUEENSLAND BRIGALOW SCHEME

The Brigalow Scheme has been one of Australia's largest dryland development projects since World War II. Large sums of private and public capital have been invested to create 247 new farm firms. Planning the development of these new properties is a complex task. A simulation model of the typical block in Area III of the Brigalow Scheme has been constructed and used to evaluate experimentally the financial performance of various growth strategies. Use of a conjugate directions search procedure with this model has allowed growth strategies to be identified which maximize net worth subject to a low risk of financial failure. These strategies are compared with development programmes which have already been implemented. Significant conclusions are reached both with respect to future management strategies and future land development policies. Methodological advances incorporated in the simulation model are also discussed.     

搞好特色农产品区域布局 推进农业产业化进程

阐述了唐山市特色农产品生产及产业化经营现状,发展特色农产品优势和制约因素,提出了板栗、奶牛、瘦肉型猪、食用菌、海珍品等重点特色农产品发展布局及发展设想,最后提出主要措施.该文还认为,要搞好特色农产品区域布局,必须采取依托龙头带动,实施品牌战略等4项措施.     

发挥贵州农业比较优势 大力发展特色农业

阐述了对深化贵州农业比较优势的认识;提出从理清思路、明确目标、立足优势、突出重点等方面做好规划工作;指出部门齐抓共管、提高科技含量、大力发展加工、加强市场建设、努力增加投入等5方面保障措施.     

STRUCTURAL POLICIES FOR AGRICULTURE IN THE E.E.C.

The outcome of the Common Agricultural Policy, with its “managed” market for farm products, has been high prices and surplus production, the disposal of which incurs a heavy expenditure on market support. At the same time, structural changes have been relatively insignifcant in the absence of a coherent E.E.C. programme, and, farms remain predominantly small and uneconomic. Financial and social pressures have compelled the Comission of the E.E.C. to admit that the Common Agricultural Policy needs to be radically re-appraised. In December 1968, far-reaching proposals, the so-called “Mansholt Plan”, were put forward by the Comission. This paper outlines and compares the structural policies of E.E.C. member States, and considers their impact upon the structure of farming. An assessment is also made of the measures included in the Mansholt Plan and in subsequent Community proposals designed to raise farmers' living standards and to reduce the cost of the Common Agricultural Policy.