Characteristics of Mortgage Terminations: an Analysis of a Loan-Level Dataset

Understanding mortgage termination behavior is crucial for valuating mortgage-backed securities. Analyzing a unique loan-level dataset, this study examines the characteristics of mortgage prepayment and default behaviors in the Korean housing and housing finance markets. We also analyze mortgage termination behaviors across regions, loan purposes, and periods. The results suggest that the prepayment rate of fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and the ratio of adjustable-rate mortgages to FRMs can provide meaningful signals for the Korean household economy. Although the macro-prudential policies pertaining to the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and debt-to-income ratio (DTI) are very effective, their effects can vary depending on the region or loan purpose. Furthermore, the DTI and credit score cannot always identify the default risks of mortgages not intended for housing purchases even though such mortgages are more vulnerable to macroeconomic changes. The observed changes in default behavior indicate that the government’s policies to promote fixed-rate loans have achieved a certain degree of success.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations.     

Analyst Tipping: Additional Evidence

We examine whether analysts tip investors during investor conferences. We find that conference‐day abnormal returns of a presenting company are about 0.6% higher when the conference is hosted by an analyst who will initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation than when the conference is hosted by non‐initiating analysts. Furthermore, conference‐day abnormal returns of the presenting company amount to half of the price run‐up during the 20 trading days prior to the Buy initiation. Finally, there is a statistically and economically significant price run‐up prior to a Sell initiation (by about –0.7%) when the analyst who will initiate coverage with a Sell recommendation hosts a conference but does not invite the company to present. Our findings collectively suggest that analysts, rather than companies, tip select investors about upcoming initiations during conferences.     

固定利率住房抵押贷款违约行为及其定价研究

固定利率住房抵押贷款的信用风险主要是违约风险,基于理性期权的定价模型往往会低估借款人的违约概率.通过分析违约成本及非理性违约因素,可以确定借款人违约时贷款机构收回的现金流,得到固定利率住房抵押贷款定价的期望值模型,并得出模型的求解方法.     

Appraisal Quality and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from Alaska

We empirically examine the effect of appraisal quality on subsequent mortgage loan performance using data from the high volatility housing market of Alaska in the 1980s. We develop measures of appraisal quality by computing the residual between a hedonic estimate of house value using available information from other appraisals compared to actual ex ante appraised value. We then estimate proportional hazard models of mortgage default and find that several measures of appraisal quality, particularly appraised value in excess of hedonic estimates, are significantly related to default risk. Using valuations subsequent to loan default, we are also able to evaluate how well house price indices perform in terms of estimating current loan-to-value and offer some additional evidence on the controversy over the role of net equity versus trigger events as determinants of mortgage default. We also show that defaults are related to ex ante measures of housing market conditions, with additional implications for underwriting policies and the current industry trend away from traditional appraisal and toward automated valuation.     

Price Stickiness and Sectoral Inflation Persistence: Additional Evidence

In this paper, using U.S. as well as French sectoral data and indicators of price rigidity, we reexamine the (lack of) relation between price stickiness and inflation persistence. This has recently been put forward by Bils and Klenow (2004) as evidence against time‐dependent price setting models. We obtain that, when filtering out sector‐specific shocks along the lines of Boivin, Giannoni, and Mihov (2009), and allowing for an alternative assumption on the marginal cost process, the case against the time‐dependent Calvo model is substantially weakened.     

Residential Mortgage Lending and Borrower Risk: The Relationship Between Mortgage Spreads and Individual Characteristics

The mortgage banking environment in Hong Kong is quite different from that in the United States. For example, the secondary mortgage market and mortgage insurance only started after 1997. Using a large data set on mortgages, we examine empirically how mortgage rates in this market vary with various individual borrower, property, and loan characteristics. We find that mortgage rates in Hong Kong do vary with individual characteristics, which suggests credit sorting according to both prepayment risk and default risk, as a higher mortgage rate is found to be related to either higher collateral (a lower loan-to-value ratio) or slower prepayment. The empirical results suggest that lenders in Hong Kong can observe the risk type of individual borrowers to a certain extent and charge a corresponding mortgage spread. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the sorting-by-observed-risk paradigm as in Berger and Udell (1990).     

Mortgage Brokers and the Refinancing Transaction: Evidence from CRA Borrowers

This study adds to an emerging literature on the lending practices of mortgage brokers during the run-up in home prices prior to 2006. Following a sample of low— and moderate-income borrowers through the first years following home purchase, the analysis identifies differences in the refinancing transaction associated with the use of mortgage brokers vs. retail lenders. Specifically, the analysis includes measures of the refinancing process, including whether the lender initiated contact with the borrower, whether the terms of the mortgage changed at closing, and the level of borrower satisfaction in hindsight. Care must be taken in extrapolating from this sample to the broader mortgage market, as all borrowers refinanced out of 30-year fixed-rate purchase mortgages in the Community Advantage Program (CAP). Nevertheless, analysis of this sample offers unique insight into borrowers’ interactions with mortgage brokers during the refinancing transaction. Origination with a mortgage broker, compared with origination through a retail lender, is associated with both a less satisfactory refinancing process and a higher likelihood of refinancing into an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).     

Economic Consequences of Transparency Regulation: Evidence from Bank Mortgage Lending

We examine the economic consequences of a rule designed to improve consumers' understanding of mortgage information. The 2015 TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosures rule (TRID) simplifies the mortgage disclosures provided to consumers. As a consequence, TRID-affected mortgages become a less attractive investment opportunity to banks. Our main results document that mortgage applications affected by TRID are less likely to be approved following the rule's effective date. We find evidence consistent with both a decrease in consumers' information processing costs and an increase in banks' secondary market frictions, providing insight into the potential channels through which this reduction in mortgage credit operates. We also find that banks partially compensate for reduced mortgage lending by increasing small business lending, and that fintechs absorb mortgage demand in areas with reduced mortgage lending by banks. Our study documents real actions that firms take in response to disclosure transparency regulation and contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of such regulation.     

浅谈抵债资产评估

我国资产评估行业目前存在着条决分割，分头管理；法律调控能力不够；评估基础理论薄弱及评估标准不统一等问题。在抵债资产评估过程中要注意评估结构的选择，银行各部门之间的配合，评估结果保密等等。     

对知识产权质押评估的认识和思考

当前,知识产权的竞争日益激烈,实施知识产权战略成为发展经济的关键手段,许多发达国家和地区都建立了完善的知识产权中介服务体系,资产评估是其中重要一环.随着国家知识产权战略的实施和金融市场的发展,知识产权质押融资已成为企业融资的重要方式.知识产权质押评估是企业实施知识产权质押融资的重要步骤.知识产权质押评估的开展,有利于拓展企业融资渠道,降低银行贷款风险.但如何做好知识产权质押评估工作是评估行业的难点,值得我们去进一步的思考和研究.     

Evidence on the Benefits of Alternative Mortgage Products

Alternative mortgage products have been identified by many as culprits in the financial crisis. However, because of their lower initial mortgage payments relative to loan amount, they may be a valuable tool for households that expect higher and more certain future labor income, and that wish to smooth consumption over the life‐cycle. Using U.K. household‐level panel data, this paper provides evidence in support of this hypothesis and highlights other important benefits of alternative mortgages, including portfolio diversification, tax benefits, and a reduction in the transaction costs incurred in housing transactions.     

Changes in the Information Efficiency of Stock Prices: Additional Evidence

Previous research shows, using data from three quarters after the implementation of regulation fair disclosure (Reg FD), that there is an improvement in the informational efficiency of stock prices after Reg FD. We compare the informational efficiency of stock prices in four pre-Reg FD quarters (1999–2000) and 12 post-Reg FD quarters (2002–2005). The improvement in the informational efficiency of stock prices previously reported in the immediate aftermath of Reg FD persists in later periods.     

Household Liquidity Constraints and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Danish Mortgage Reform

We study the causal effect of liquidity constraints on individual labor market outcomes by exploiting the 1992 mortgage reform in Denmark, which for the first time allowed homeowners to borrow against housing equity for nonhousing purposes. Following the reform, liquidity-constrained homeowners increased debt levels and had higher earnings growth and lower employment rates. The option to borrow against housing equity enabled liquidity-constrained individuals to move to high-wage jobs and invest in valuable human and physical capital. The results imply that relaxing household liquidity constraints during recessions can create better job matches, potentially increasing earnings and output in the longer run.     

Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination

Property market dynamics depend on changes in long run equilibrium and on impediments to adjustment towards equilibrium. Mortgage termination due to mobility, default and refinancing provides a lens for evaluating property market adjustments. The borrower’s decision to move as an adjustment mechanism in the property market is associated with utility-maximizing decisions to either prepay or default on the mortgage. The optimal choice between these two termination events may depend on unobserved propensities related to change in income, job location, or family size, and substantial inertial forces including search costs, neighborhood change and attachment to an area. We propose a method for modeling variables determining the impact of mobility on mortgage terminations with imperfect household and loan level data. Since omitted variables contribute to moving decisions and therefore to mortgage prepayment and default decisions, utility functions for sale and default are correlated through these unobservable variables; thus, the IIA assumption of the widely used Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) is violated. Under such circumstances, econometric theory suggests that the Nested Logit Model (NMNL) is a better choice, which obviates the limitation of MNL by allowing correlation in unobserved factors across alternatives. Using loan level micro data, we find empirical evidence showing significant correlation between sale and default due to omitted borrower mobility characteristics. Our simulations find that NMNL out performs MNL in out-of-sample prediction. Improved predictions of moves and defaults are applicable to micro and macro analysis of the housing market system.     

房地产抵押评估应关注的几个问题

随着金融体制改革的深化,各商业银行为降低自身的信贷风险,大都在推行以房地产抵押为主的抵押贷款.如何在房地产抵押中合理地对房地产价值进行评估,为抵押双方提供一个可靠的价值依据,从而保证金融部门的资金安全,保障抵押人应得的经济利益,已成为价值评估行业的一个重要课题.本文拟就房地产抵押的性质、抵押的客体范围、抵押标的权属以及评估中应关注的其他问题谈一些看法.