A Note on Causality Between Money,Wages and Prices in Australia*

Lead and lag relationships between money, wages. and prices are examined using Australian data. Granger causality tests support univariate causality running from money to both wages and prices. This result is consistent with a monetarist explanation of inflation.     

The Impact of Incomes Policy on Aggregate Wage Determination in Australia*

A model of aggregate wage determination for Australia is developed and used to examine the effects of incomes policies on the level of real wages. A theoretical model of wage determination which includes several channels of incomes policy effects is specified and estimated using aggregate data. The results provide strong evidence to support the view that during periods of certain incomes policies there have been important changes in behaviour in the Australian labour market. In particular, during the period of the Prices and Incomes Accord it is estimated that equilibrium real wages were over 5 per cent below what would have been expected from previous experience.     

Investment Spending in Australia: Further Study and Interpretation*

Recent work in macro theory suggests that aggregate 'demand' policies have direct supply-side effects in the short run, if Lucas's standard specification of the nonlinear adjustment costs for capital is generalized In this paper, we estimate an investment equation (involving Tobin's valuation ratio and Australian data) which nests three hypotheses: Lucas's standard specification of adjustment costs, a simple generalization which permits labour to be involved in the installation of capital and a model which allows for liquidity constraints. The results support the suggested alternative formulation of the q-theory     

A Note on Viable Proposals*

Sengupta and Sengupta (“Viable Proposals,”International Economic Review 35 (1994), 347–59.) consider a payoff vector of a TU‐game as a viable proposal if it challenges each legitimate contender. They show that for each game the set of viable proposals is nonempty. Their proof, however, has a flaw. I present a proof based upon a result by Kalai and Schmeidler (“An Admissible Set Occurring in Various Bargaining Situations,”Journal of Economic Theory 14 (1977), 402–11) .     

Note on Longevity and Aggregate Savings

In a recent paper in this journal, Bloom, Canning and Graham (2003) model the effect of changes in longevity on individual savings. They proceed to present empirical findings about the relation between longevity and aggregate savings. There is a missing link between their empirics and theory: the changes in the populations age density distribution due to increased longevity. This note provides such an aggregation analysis within a simple model with uncertain survival, endogenous life‐cycle consumption and retirement age. It is shown that, with continuous annuitization, an increase in expected longevity raises aggregate steady‐state savings. The magnitude of this effect depends on the economy's age‐specific distribution and on the elasticity of optimum retirement to changes in longevity.     

A Note on Exchange Rate Trend-Stationarity *

This note extends Goodfriend (1987) to a small open economy to demonstrate that the exchange rate may be non-trend-stationary if the monetary authorities attempt to smooth both the price level and the exchange rate. [431]     

Asset Substitution and Aggregate Liquidity in Australia: 1969–1983*

This paper has two goals. The first goal is to examine the degree of substitutability between various bank and non-bank assets and a reference asset using A ustralian quarterly data for the sample period 1969(4)-1983(2). Particular attention is directed towards quantifying the degree of liquidity of financial innovations introduced recently into the A ustralian financial sector. The second goal is to construct a weighted monetary aggregate series derived. explicitly from microeconomic consumer demand theory. While both the bank innovations and building society deposits are close substitutes for currency, the aggregation restrictions implicit in the Australian monetary aggregates beyond Ml are violated.     

Business Formation and Aggregate Investment

The paper proposes an intertemporal equilibrium model of vintage capital and monopolistic competition. Reflecting a tradeoff between the number and capacity of new machines, investment may be extensive or intensive. External gains from specialization and rationalization result in distorted investment decisions. The paper compares the effectiveness of a general investment tax credit with a start-up subsidy that shifts the direction of investment towards a more extensive form. An optimal policy of investment promotion is derived.     

A Note on Retrospectivity and the Tax System*

The legitimacy or otherwise of retrospective tax legislation has become a topical issue in Australian tax reform debates. This note considers the economic costs of permitting this budgetary practice. While under certain circumstances the standard welfare cost of the tax system may be reduced by retrospective announcement of tax arrangements, the costs of forming expectations. required by the possibility of retrospective tax legislation lead to a reduction in the value of economic activity.     

A Theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investment*

Why do we observe some developing countries objecting to the prospect of a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), even though they have been keen to liberalize investment in preferential agreements in recent years? In this paper, we analyze the issue of MAI implementation and assess the welfare consequences of such kind of agreements. In our model, participation to MAI involves a tradeoff between less rent extraction from multinational firms (MNEs) and more abundant FDI inflows. At equilibrium, either all countries enter MAI, or all countries stay out, or only some of them enter. Coordination problems may induce multiple equilibria: the three types of equilibria may coexist. So, the implementation of MAI may depend not only on structural factors but also on the general “political climate.” When all countries join MAI, world welfare is maximized because this minimizes the hold‐up problem faced by MNEs and stimulates investment. However, in an asymmetric world, welfare gains are not guaranteed for all countries.     

公司证券投资总风险的分析

公司证券投资的总风险，是公司特别风险和市场风险的组合。总风险并不是市场风险和个别股票风险的简单叠加，而是依据几何定理计算得出的综合数。在市场风险一定的情况下，通过购买多种股票进行分散投资，可降低公司总风险。在公司特别风险一定的情况下，可以优选组合降低公司所承受的市场风险，达到降低公司总风险的目的。