Sector level cost of equity in African financial markets

This paper assesses the effectiveness of Liu (2006) metrics in measuring illiquidity within a multifactor CAPM pricing model. Costs of equity are estimated using this model for the major sectors within Africa's larger equity markets: Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa. In all countries, the cost of equity is found to be highest in the financial sector and lowest in the blue chip stocks of Tunisia, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa. At an aggregate level, Nigeria and Zambia have the highest cost of capital.     

Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

Foreign listings, corporate governance, and equity valuations

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign listing on equity valuations and relates it to an improvement in corporate governance. It documents abnormal returns around the announcement to list foreign shares on the London Stock Exchange. These are partially explained by a reduction of agency costs that is consistent with the enhanced monitoring and investor protection that prevail in a superior information and legal environment. The results are consistent with predictions derived from theoretical models of agency costs and illustrate an interesting implication of more open global equity markets.     

State institutions, risk, and lending in global capital markets

This paper examines one component of the expansion of global capitalism, the lending of capital across national borders and the affect of national political institutions and arrangements upon that lending. Global capital markets expanded rapidly during the latter part of the twentieth century, prompting discussions about the role of mobile capital. This contribution makes three key points to the understanding of globalization, its impacts, its causes, and its relationship to the nation-state, business and development. First, globalization is an uneven, bifurcated, phenomenon. Only a select group access these global capital markets, while many watch from the sidelines. Second, national political arrangements help us understand systematic disparities in access to global capital. National and local public policies, national political institutions, and other local activities prove instrumental in affecting access to global capital. Democracy and regulatory stability matter as they provide information to international investors about the risk to investments from local arenas. Third, the data presents a methodological obstacle in understanding how politics affects access to global capital. The structure of the data’s distribution can hide real relationships and pervert substantive interpretations if not managed. Without addressing the statistical concerns presented by the data the results would at worst be little more than garbage in, garbage out, and at best misleading.     

Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news.     

The relevance of currency risk in the EMU

We investigate how the elimination of intra-European exchange risk may affect international financial markets using a conditional version of the International CAPM. We estimate the EMU and non-EMU components of aggregate currency risk and document significant exposures to both. The premium for EMU risk is positive and associated with exposure to the French, Italian and Spanish currencies. The premium for non-EMU risk is consistently negative and accounts for most of the aggregate currency premiums. In the 1990s, exposures to EMU risk declined significantly while exposures to non-EMU risk increased. Hence the adoption of the Euro is unlikely to have a large impact on aggregate currency risk premiums.     

Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book

This paper describes and analyzes the implementation of a crawling exchange rate band on an electronic trading platform. The placement of limit orders at the central bank's target rate serves as a credible policy statement that may coordinate beliefs of market participants. We find for our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for the next minutes but that intervention days show a lower degree of volatility (and spread) than non-intervention days. We also show for intraday data that the price impact of interbank order flow is smaller on intervention days than on non-intervention days. These stabilizing effects, however, rely on the conditions of large currency reserves and the existence of capital controls; an electronic market seems to support this goal.     

Sovereign credit ratings,capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets

How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995–2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longer-term credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.     

Currency Prices, the Nominal Exchange Rate, and Security Prices in a Two‐Country Dynamic Monetary Equilibrium

This paper examines a continuous‐time two‐country dynamic monetary equilibrium in which countries with possibly heterogeneous tastes and endowments hold their own money for the purpose of transaction services formulated via money in the utility function. Given a price system, no‐arbitrage pricing results are provided for the price of each money and the nominal exchange rate. Characterizations are provided for equilibrium prices for general time‐additive preferences and non‐Markovian exogenous processes. Under a Markovian structure of model primitives, the currency prices are shown to solve a bivariate system of partial differential equations. Assuming that each country is endowed with heterogeneous separable power utility and the exogenous quantities all follow geometric Brownian motions, an equilibrium is shown to exist and additional characterization is provided. A further example of nonseparable Cobb–Douglas preferences is investigated. The additional features over the customary environment of homogeneous logarithmic preferences are emphasized.     

International capital flows,returns and world financial integration

International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and bond markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how greater integration in world financial markets affects the behavior of international capital flows and financial returns. Our model predicts that international capital flows are large (in absolute value) and very volatile during the early stages of financial integration when international asset trading is concentrated in bonds. As integration progresses and households gain access to world equity markets, the size and volatility of international bond flows decline. This is the natural outcome of greater risk sharing facilitated by increased integration. This pattern is consistent with declining volatility observed during 1975–2007 period in the G-7 countries. We also find that the equilibrium flows in bonds and stocks predicted by the model are larger than their empirical counterparts, and are largely driven by variations in equity risk premia. The model also predicts that volatility of equity and bond returns decline with integration, again consistent with the data for G-7 economies.     

金融危机下国际生产体系对全球贸易的冲击及福利影响

从国际生产和世界贸易两个层面分析并测算了当今世界生产和贸易的最新特点和进展,揭示了两大体系的紧密联系。在外部需求下降的情况下,垂直专业化生产对国际贸易尤其是中间产品贸易造成了负面影响,金融危机通过垂直的国际生产格局对国际贸易的破坏作用放大了。由于供应链的断裂会造成价值链上多个国家进出口贸易的下降,并对深层次参与垂直专业化生产的发展中国家和发达国家的福利造成损失。     

隐性交易成本与资产定价——基于上证180指数成份股票交易数据的实证研究

文章利用上证180指数成份股票的高频数据计算隐性交易成本,探讨其与资产定价的关系。发现:(1)隐性交易成本与换手率、规模和收益率都存在着明显的线性负相关关系。在股票收益率下降时期,隐性交易成本通过流动性深度成本间接影响股票收益率。(2)较之隐性交易成本,规模因素与换手率因素对收益率的影响有着更好的测度性。很可能是因为这两个因素与流动性深度成本也有着显著相关性。(3)隐性交易成本与规模因素整体上呈线性负相关关系,分段上的关系则很可能是凹函数与凸函数的组合。     

Exchange rate policies in Asia in an era of financial globalisation: An empirical assessment

Ebbs and flows of capital have complicated macroeconomic policy management for all emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) regardless of whether they have adopted flexible or managed exchange rate regimes. In the light of the renewed interest in the trilemma versus dilemma debate, we contribute to the related literature by presenting an empirical analysis of exchange rate flexibility and intervention for selected Asian EMDEs over the time period 2001–2016. In addition to estimating augmented Frankel–Wei regressions, we employ a generalised auto‐regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the extent of foreign exchange (FX) intervention and whether there exist any asymmetries in the way countries intervene. Our results show that although there is greater flexibility in exchange rates, there is evidence of some countries potentially using FX intervention to manage currency movements. We also find evidence of asymmetry in intervention where exchange rate volatility responds more emphatically to FX sales than purchases.     

Audit quality in common-law and code-law emerging markets: Evidence on earnings conservatism, agency costs and cost of equity

This study focuses on firms that are audited by a big auditor and examines the differentiation in the earnings management potential and the level of conservatism. It also investigates whether being audited by a big auditor would lead to lower agency costs and lower cost of equity. The study focuses on emerging common-law South Africa and code-law Brazil, and seeks to identify whether there are material differences given their dissimilar institutional characteristics. The study reports that even though firms may be audited by high quality auditors, their institutional differences influence significantly firms' earnings conservatism, agency costs and cost of equity. Client firms of big auditors in both common-law South Africa and code-law Brazil exhibit lower discretionary accruals. The study has found evidence of more conservative earnings for South Africa but insufficient levels for Brazil. For common-law South Africa, the presence of effective corporate governance mechanisms reduces agency costs. For code-law Brazil, the corporate governance mechanisms generally display an insignificant impact on reducing agency costs. For common-law South Africa, firm-level performance, growth and market determinants tend to lead to a lower cost of equity. For code-law Brazil, it is found that significant discretionary accruals, market beta and analyst forecast dispersion would result in higher uncertainty and would consequently raise the cost of equity.     

An empirical analysis and extension of internalization theory in emerging markets: The role of firm-specific assets and asset dispersion in the multinationality-performance relationship

This study examines the relationship between firm multinationality and financial performance with a focus on firm-specific assets and dispersion of these assets for MNCs from emerging markets. Drawing upon internalization theory, the authors reveal that while the financial performance of manufacturing MNCs depends on technological assets, service MNCs are more dependent on marketing assets to succeed in international markets. Study findings further emphasize the critical role of the industry context in emerging markets as the authors demonstrate that international asset dispersion weakens the effects of internationalization on financial performance more for MNCs in manufacturing industries than for MNCs in services.     

Mapping the trading behavior of the middle class in emerging markets: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Predicted to grow above 4.9 billion by 2030, with an overall spending capacity of $56 trillion, the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has attracted global practitioner and academic attention. How this new wealth will be invested is a central question; yet our understanding still remains fragmented. Drawing on the literatures of international business, behavioral economics and finance and using high-frequency stock market data, we examine and map the trading behavior of the middle class in Turkey, one of the fastest rising economic powers of the East. We find that middle class traders exhibit discernible differences to professionals, with respect to risk attitudes and stock preferences (e.g. prefer lower-risk, smaller-size and ‘value’ stocks). In addition, while they typically hold small portfolios and tend to realize lower gains than professionals, their role has become considerably influential to the direction of the entire market.     

金融改革进程中我国银行资本的市场运作研究

伴随经济的全球化和多样化,金融结构的调整和改革,金融的业务竞争也越来越激烈,为了生存和发展,银行作为盈利性的企业,必定要在自身的经营方式和结构上进行具有创新性的重组和调整,这样,银行资本的市场运作必定也会受到一系列影响。     

Robustness of the Black and Scholes Formula

Consider an option on a stock whose volatility is unknown and stochastic. An agent assumes this volatility to be a specific function of time and the stock price, knowing that this assumption may result in a misspecification of the volatility. However, if the misspecified volatility dominates the true volatility, then the misspecified price of the option dominates its true price. Moreover, the option hedging strategy computed under the assumption of the misspecified volatility provides an almost sure one-sided hedge for the option under the true volatility. Analogous results hold if the true volatility dominates the misspecified volatility. These comparisons can fail, however, if the misspecified volatility is not assumed to be a function of time and the stock price. The positive results, which apply to both European and American options, are used to obtain a bound and hedge for Asian options.     

Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets

A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default. In this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature. Consistent with the data, the quantitative analysis shows that politically unstable and more polarized economies experience higher default rates and larger level and volatility of sovereign interest rate spreads.     

Integrated information and the cost of capital

The growing requirements for corporate transparency have encouraged companies to report their performance to shareholders, investors and society in general from the economic, social and environmental points of view. However, many reports involve difficulties at the moment of analysing the information. To help minimize this problem, the integrated report has arisen. This document integrates all the financial, social and environmental information, jointly disclosing the key performance statistics.Previous research has revealed that disclosing financial information gives important economic advantages to companies. This work aims to extend the existing empirical evidence, analysing the effect that the disclosure of integrated information has on the cost of capital. Accordingly, we used a sample of 995 companies in 27 countries and 3294 observations. The period in which the sample was taken was from 2009 to 2013. The results, after applying the panel data methodology, confirmed that a negative relationship exists between the cost of capital and the disclosure of an integrated report. The reduction of the cost of capital as a result of the disclosure of an integrated report is especially relevant to those companies that need to increase their basic funding. They have considerable problems with asymmetric information or they operate in markets with limited protection for investors.