Wars and capital destruction

In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of conflicts and wars on key macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. Using a panel data with 9 countries from 1870 onwards, we first show that the consumption-to-output ratio is minimal during WWII for participants. While this can be explained by an increase in public spending in the USA, this cannot be the case in other countries that participated in WWII, as they experience a large fall in output during wartime. To account for this, we build a variation of a Real Business Cycle model first proposed by Hercowitz and Sampson (1991). We extend the initial model to account for specific shocks that destroy private and public capital stocks – as conflicts do – by assuming an (exogenously) time-varying parameter in the law of capital accumulation. In addition, the model imbeds generalized TFP shocks capturing standard technological factors as well as the potential effects of war on the labor force. The model is estimated and used (i) to assess the importance of capital shocks during war episodes, and (ii) to quantify the welfare effects of conflicts. We show that capital shocks are crucial to account for the macroeconomic dynamics of countries that have experienced large war-related destruction, and that the welfare losses from fluctuations can be quite large when considering data samples that include major war episodes.     

Wars of attrition and all-pay auctions with stochastic competition

We extend the war of attrition and all-pay auction analysis of Krishna and Morgan (1997) to a stochastic competition setting. We determine the existence of equilibrium bidding strategies and discuss the potential shape of these strategies. Results for the war of attrition contrast with the characterization of the bidding equilibrium strategies in the first-price all-pay auction as well as the winner-pay auctions. Furthermore we investigate the expected revenue comparisons among the war of attrition, the all-pay auction and the winner-pay auctions and discuss the linkage principle as well. Our findings are applicable to future works on contests and charity auctions.     

A dynamic cournot-nash equilibrium in fishery: The effects of entry

A dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibrium of the fish war between two countries has been derived and its steady-state behavior studied by Levhari and Mirman on the basis of a discrete dynamic programming method. In this paper we shall consider an n-country extension of Levhari-Mirman fish war model. We shall derive the Cournot-Nash equilibrium and its steady-state value to analyze the effects of entry (or exit) in fish war. A comparison is made between in dividual management of fishery by each country and joint management by all countries.

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Riassunto In questo lavoro si considera l'estensione, al caso din paesi concorrenti, del modello concorrenziale dell'attività peschereccia proposto da Levhari e Mirman. Viene derivata la configurazione di equilibrio di Cournot-Nash e si calcola il suo valore stazionario per analizzare l'effetto d'entrata (o d'uscita) di un agente nella attività concorrenziale.Viene infine fatto un confronto tra la conduzione individuale della pesca in ogni singolo paese e la conduzione congiunta di tutti i paesi considerati.

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Versione definitiva pervenuta il 17-1-81     

Monetary Targets and the World Economy: A Progress Report

The recent changes in the value of the dollar and the talk of an interest rate ‘war’ demonstrate again that the world finds it difficult to cope with rapid exchange rate movements. In some ways the experience - and the reactions to it - are similar to the events of 1978. As now, the world was in a recession (though on a milder scale) and there were fears that exchange rate problems would obstruct economic recovery. The main difference is that in 1978 it was the strength of the Deutschmark which caused concern whereas this time the problems are associated with the rise in the value of the dollar. In a Briefing Paper in Economic Outlook, February 1978, ‘Monetary Targets and the World Economy’ we suggested that the problem arose from inconsistencies between national monetary policies and exchange rate objectives. In general, countries dislike exchange rate changes - in either direction - and there were problems because countries would not accept the exchange rate consequences of their own or other countries' monetary policies. We estimated the required monetary policies for stable exchange rates and suggested specific national monetary targets for 1978 which would at least move the world economy towards consistent monetary policies. In this Economic Viewpoint we return to those ideas. We consider what happened in 1978 and we also revise the underlying monetary rules. More recent experience suggests that although there has been some progress towards the convergence of monetary policies there will continue to be trend changes in exchange rates. It is also clear that there will be short-term fluctuations around these trends. We believe that greater convergence of monetary policies would be desirable but failing that it is important that countries should avoid abrupt changes in monetary policy. It is also important that countries should become accustomed to exchange rate changes. They should direct monetary policy towards their objectives for inflation and should not be diverted from it by temporary or permanent changes in their exchange rates.     

Cost Accounting for War: Contracting Procedures and Cost-plus Pricing in WWI Industrial Mobilization in Italy

The aim of this paper is to explore the role played by cost accounting in Italy's Industrial Mobilization system and in the largest firm manufacturing weaponry, Ansaldo of Genoa, during WWI. While in other countries such as the UK and the USA, efficiency in buying and managing war material was an important part of military strategy, in Italy, various factors impeded it. This paper focuses on contracting procedures adopted by the Ministry of War and Ministry of Munitions and looks at the cost accounting practices in Ansaldo to see how costs were determined and how prices were set. We found a paradox. On the one hand, despite knowledge of costing, the government did not impose cost controls on the producers of war material, nor on their profit rates. On the other hand, examining Ansaldo's cost sheets we discover they underestimated their production costs leading the firm to losses despite its favorable political position. This paper contributes to the theoretical debate about the relationships between accounting and war in the Italian context where lobbying, collusion, bribery and private interests dominated the administrative behavior of public and private actors instead of efficiency, accountability and honesty.     

Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers

The number of new Covid-19 cases is still high in several countries, despite vaccination efforts. A number of countries are experiencing new and severe waves of infection. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases and deaths in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19 cases and fatalities in countries that are latecomers—i.e., countries where cases of the disease started to appear some time after others. In particular, we propose a penalized LASSO regression model with an error correction mechanism to construct a model of a latecomer country in terms of other countries that were at a similar stage of the pandemic some days before. By tracking the number of cases in those countries, we use an adaptive rolling-window scheme to forecast the number of cases and deaths in the latecomer. We apply this methodology to 45 countries and we provide detailed results for four of them: Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Portugal. We show that the methodology performs very well when compared to alternative methods. These forecasts aim to foster better short-run management of the healthcare system and can be applied not only to countries but also to different regions within a country. Finally, the modeling framework derived in the paper can be applied to other infectious diseases.     

Not all trade wars are created equal

• ? When interpreting estimates of the economic impact of trade wars, the devil is in the detail. Our review of more than 30 institutions' trade war projections finds huge variation – much of which can be explained by differences in assumptions rather than differences in models' structures or specifications. Relative to estimates based on extreme financial or tariff assumptions, our main trade war scenario results are moderate and comparable with the IMF's latest analysis.
• ? In our baseline forecast, trade policy measures have a relatively limited overall impact on global growth. This is in line with recent experience: to date, direct effects from higher trade costs have been small, and policy action has acted to offset adverse impacts on confidence. But the risk of further escalation in US‐China trade tensions remains, even following the (fragile) Trump‐Xi truce agreed at the recent G20 summit.
• ? Our review finds that estimates of the impact of such an escalation range from negligible impacts to a deterioration in some countries’ economic conditions approaching that seen during the global financial crisis. Results in Oxford Economics’ “rising protectionism” scenario – from our latest Global Scenarios Service – are moderate in comparison.
• ? We also find that all estimates showing substantial economic effects from a trade war in our sample are predicated on extreme asset price or tariff moves. In some cases, tariffs are assumed to rise more than at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
• ? Such differences in assumptions can largely account for the divergence in trade war impact estimates. This is illustrated in our very low probability “full‐blown global trade war” scenario – incorporating severe tariff and financial assumptions more in line with institutions like the Bank of England – which generates a deterioration in economic conditions that broadly matches extreme estimates in our sample.

     

Evolutionary stability of prospect theory preferences

We demonstrate that in simple 2×2 games (cumulative) prospect theory preferences can be (semi-)evolutionarily stable, in particular, a population of players with prospect theory preferences is stable against more rational players, i.e. players with a smaller degree of probability weighting. We also show that in a typical game with infinitely many strategies, the “war of attrition”, probability weighting is (semi-)evolutionarily stable. Finally, we generalize to other notions of stability. Our results may help to explain why probability weighting is generally observed in humans, although it is not optimal in usual decision problems.     

Scaling of HIS in a global context: Same,same, but different

Scaling of information systems is a field of research with growing importance. This paper presents the story of scaling of an artifact (called District Health Information Software — DHIS) and associated principles and practices around a health information system that has taken place over 15 years, both within and between multiple developing countries. Through the lens of the story of the artifact over its trajectory of development and implementation in multiple contexts and time, we develop insights that challenge traditional thinking around scaling. Scaling is not about constant gains and expansion, as is often assumed, but involves a dichotomy of losses and gains, associated with each step or translation in its process of movement. We draw upon Latour's insights on circulating references to analyze this dichotomy of loss and gains, conceptualizing the process as circulating translations. We contribute to the technology transfer literature in arguing that the process of transfer is not about a “parachuting” from point A to B, or a “design from nowhere” but something which occurs in a series of small steps, where with each step new socio-technical configurations are created which not only shape subsequent steps, but also redefine the content of the artifact. In this way, we are in line with findings from the social studies of technology, but differ in that our artifact of study – software – is more “virtually immaterial” than machines which had been primarily earlier objects of study. This property of software, coupled with growth of web-based and mobile infrastructure, allows relative ease of circulation across contexts, where it gets redefined and embedded at the same time at the interconnected levels of the global and local. We conceptualize this process of global scaling as being “same, same, but different”. We discuss both the characteristics of this process of global scaling, and the channels and mechanisms through which it takes place. Four overlapping conditions that shape this process include the software itself, the infrastructure, institutional practices, and ideas — these form the basis for a general framework to understand global scaling of health information systems. Empirically, the story of DHIS is told from its birth in the mid-nineties in South Africa developed on a Microsoft platform to its transformation to a web-based platform, built using Java based open-source frameworks, and now moving through multiple countries. We focus on these dynamics primarily within three countries namely India, Sierra Leone and Kenya.     

On East-West Economic relations: Does EEC discriminate?

Conclucions The field is still wide open for all kinds of speculations about the content of future EEC discriminations against the communist countries, but so far there is very little substance to the accusations that EEC is discriminating against them. Neither strategic export controls nor credit discrimination seems to have been affected at all by the creation of EEC. On non-oil products a few individual cases of protection can be cited, and the consultation procedure may conceal some discrimination. But it is important to stress that the reasons for this discrimination are of the same protectionist nature as those behind the chicken war and other protectionist measures against USA, EFTA and other third nations. That the procedures are different-consultations and quotas against the communists and mainly tariff protection against the Western nations-is motivated more by the communist state trading system and its consequences than by special EEC policies.The only case where some EEC discrimination for non-commercial, political reasons can be suspected is for oil and oil products. The present strict mutual scrutiny of the import policies of the different member countries is likely to continue and to develop into some form of common policy, where security considerations may influence the setting of upper import limits of Soviet oil. But so long as this policy is not made official it is impossible to pinpoint any discrimination.In summary it can be said that the communist accusations, implying that EEC constitutes an endeavour to hurt the Soviet Union and the socialist camp through a discriminatory trade policy, are based more on the possibility that such a discrimination can come into existence than on any evidence that it actually has done so. These accusations are in fact very much akin to the Western exaggerations of actual Soviet economic warfare, based on the fact that the Soviet trade system indeed makes it possible to hide any kind of political warfare considerations inside the system.NOTE: The present article does not deal explicitly with economic planning problems or the socialist countries. However, we think the political problems discussed in this article are an interesting aspect of the relations between centrally planned economies and the market economies.

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Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

Determinants of the adoption of sustainability assurance statements: an international investigation

This paper explores the factors associated with voluntary decisions to assure social, environmental and sustainability reports. Since the market for assurance services in this area is in its formative stages, there is a limited understanding of the demand for this emergent non‐financial auditing practice, which is evolving rapidly across different countries. Drawing from extant literature in international auditing and environmental accounting, we focus on a set of country‐level institutional factors to explain the adoption of sustainability assurance statements among an international panel of 212 Fortune Global 250 companies for the years 1999, 2002 and 2005. Consistent with our expectations, our results provide evidence that companies operating in countries that are more stakeholder oriented and have a weaker governance enforcement regime are more likely to adopt a sustainability assurance statement. Further, the demand for assurance is higher in countries where sustainable corporate practices are better enabled by market and institutional mechanisms. Our exploratory findings also indicate that the likelihood of choosing a large accounting firm as assurance provider increases for companies domiciled in countries that are shareholder oriented and have a lower level of litigation. We conclude the paper by suggesting three directions of research in the area of sustainability assurance that have relevant academic and practical implications. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Equity‐Liabilities Distinction: The case for Co‐operatives*

Members' shares in co‐operative entities are financial instruments with particular characteristics. In this paper we analyse the relation between firm leverage and systematic risk to provide empirical evidence on the economic substance of the member shares of members of cooperatives. We have studied the characteristics of members' shares in six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and United Kingdom. We have also conducted tests on co‐operatives of these countries over the period 1993–2005. The study reports that in global terms the economic substance of the redeemable part of equity in co‐operatives is not the same across countries. Therefore if accounting standards setters want to develop a global standard for co‐operatives, a recommendation derived from this study would be to follow a probabilistic model to classify the redeemable part of co‐operative financial instruments, where the entity does not have the unconditional right to refuse the redemption, or to report this part as an intermediate item with characteristics of debt and equity.     

Growth, public investment and corruption with failing institutions

Corruption is thought to prevent poor countries from catching up with richer ones. We analyze one channel through which corruption hampers growth: public investment can be distorted in favor of specific types of spending for which rent-seeking is easier and better concealed. To study this distortion, we propose a dynamic model where households vote for the composition of public spending, subject to an incentive constraint reflecting individuals’ choice between productive activity and rent-seeking. In equilibrium, the structure of public investment is determined by the predatory technology and the distribution of political power. Among different regimes, the model shows a possible scenario of distortion without corruption in which there is no effective corruption but the possibility of corruption still distorts the allocation of public investment. We test the implications of the model on a set of countries using a two-stage least squares estimation. We find that developing countries with high predatory technology invest more in housing and physical capital in comparison with health and education. The reverse is true for developed countries.      

基于抗战防空疏散的近代重庆城市发展

在抗日战争全面爆发后,出于安全需要,以战时首都重庆为主的后方城市开始了向乡村疏散的"自救"过程。在疏散的同时,乡村也迎来特殊的建设机遇。几年下来,疏散促使重庆城区范围不断扩大,乡村开始了城市化的发展。疏散过程中形成的新的聚集点,成为战后规划卫星市镇的首选,奠定了今天重庆主城区的城市格局。     

Towards a phenomenology of civil war: Hobbes meets Benjamin in Beirut

Based on interviews with Beirut intellectuals and architects, this essay endeavours to trace the contours for a phenomenology or anthropology of civil war. Thomas Hobbes serves as a guide, with his idea of civil war representing a relapse into the ‘state of nature’; as absence of sovereignty resulting in a ‘war of everybody against everybody’. The effects of ever-latent civil war in Beirut are far-reaching: the fragmentation of urban space and the disappearance of public space, the loss of memory and the fragmentation of time, even the reification of language. In the collective imagination and in the arts, Beirut appears as a ghost town, a spectral city with a spectral civility. What we discover is a city, its inhabitants, its social behaviour, but also its art and literature, in the grip of post-traumatic stress syndrome. From all this, we take home two things: first, any city can (at least in principle) relapse into a similar state of nature — Beirut can become a paradigm of latent civil war; and second, the traumatic modernity of Beirut mirrors the traumatic artistic expressions of modernism — the shock of modernity is also always a modernity of shock.     

Are CSR Disclosures Value Relevant? Cross-Country Evidence

Using proprietary data that rate corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures of firms in 21 countries, this study examines how the strength of nation-level institutions affects the extent of CSR disclosures. We then examine the valuation implications of CSR disclosures and consider how the relation between CSR disclosures and firm value varies across countries. In contrast to prior studies, we separate CSR disclosures into an expected and unexpected portion where the unexpected portion is a proxy for the incremental information contained in CSR disclosures. We observe a positive relation between unexpected CSR disclosure and firm value measured by Tobin's Q. We also find that, while countries with strong nation-level institutions promote more CSR disclosures, the valuation of a unit increase in unexpected CSR disclosures is higher when nation-level institutions are weak.     

Cooperation and Conflict

A bstract .   A conventional wisdom in the literature contends that without a system of formal enforcement, heterogeneous groups are unable to peacefully interact for mutual benefit and are prone to eruptions of violent conflict. This article maintains that the amount of such conflict has been dramatically overstated and the occurrence of peaceful interaction dramatically understated. The common view reverses the empirical reality of the world. Historical evidence indicates that where formal institutions are absent, heterogeneous individuals signal credibility to one another by engaging in shared customs and practices, enabling peaceful intergroup exchange. This evidence challenges prevailing beliefs and suggests that peaceful cooperation characterizes most heterogeneous group interaction.     

Strategic attractiveness and release decisions for cultural goods

We study how producers of cultural goods can strategically invest in raising the attractiveness of their goods in order to secure the most profitable release dates. In a game‐theoretic setting, where two producers choose their investment expenditure before simultaneously setting the release date of their good, we prove that two equilibria are possible: releases are either simultaneous (at the demand peak) or staggered (one producer delays). In the latter equilibrium, the first‐mover secures its position by investing more in attractiveness. We test this prediction on a dataset of more than 1500 American movies released in 10 countries over 12 years. Results are consistent with the theoretical predictions, indicating that higher budget movies are released closer to seasonal demand peaks.     

Community Inclusion under Systemic Inequality: How For-Profit Businesses Pursue Social Purpose

In countries where systemic inequality is pervasive, purposeful businesses that assume wider societal responsibilities try to counteract its effects by including marginalized social groups in their value creation processes. While current research documents a variety of business approaches for community inclusion, the nature, drivers and effectiveness of these inclusionary practices are not fully understood. We develop and empirically validate a framework of community inclusion that explicates the mechanisms through which purposeful businesses generate civic wealth – or economic and social benefits – to disadvantaged community groups. We differentiate between commercial practices that recast existent firm-centric processes towards creating value for marginalized groups and collaborative practices that aim to devise novel, participatory processes for engaging marginalized groups. Analysis of primary data from a sample of 430 small businesses in seven African countries confirms that the effect of social purpose on civic wealth is partially mediated by the two inclusionary practices. Businesses are more likely to extend the scope of their inclusion through collaborative practices when they receive favourable external validation and when institutional voids are low. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of social purpose in motivating the pursuit of community-level goals and by unpacking the specific inclusionary practices used to achieve them.