我国利率市场化改革的难点与对策

利率市场化系指政府完全或部分放弃对利率的直接管制,使利率由金融市场上资金的供求关系决定,按价值规律自发调节上下波动。本文根据党的十六届三中全会稳步推进利率市场化的改革精神,通过对利率市场化改革动因的阐释,以及在此改革过程中所面临的问题,提出了利率市场化改革的路径选择。     

我国利率市场化改革存在的问题及其应对

利率市场化是麦金农和肖金融发展理论针对发展中国家的金融抑制提出的重要措施之一.文章回顾了我国利率市场化改革的历史进程,分析了我国利率市场化改革的难点,并提出了进一步推进利率市场化的对策.     

利率市场化改革对商业银行的影响及对策分析

本文以金融危机为背景,论述了我国实施利率市场化改革对商业银行的影响,并对商业银行如何应对进行了分析。     

实行利率市场化改革的风险及对策

我国金融体制改革的一个重要目标,就是逐步实现信贷资金商品化,融通资金市场化。随着我国金融市场的逐步放开,作为资金使用权转让价格的利率,也应当有控制地逐步放开。本试从实行利率市场化改革的必要性,我国实行利率市场化存在的风险以及实行利率市场化改革的对象等方面进行了论述。     

从贷款利率放开看我国利率市场化的改革及措施

2013年7月20日,中国人民银行迈出重要的一步,全面放开贷款利率管制,取消7折利率下限。这是在实体经济转型遇到很大困难的情况下,可持续发展遇到巨大瓶颈的情况下,所作出的重大决策。利率市场化是经济市场化的必然要求,利率市场化的进程将给我国国民经济带来巨大的、深远的影响。本文分析了利率市场化给我国国民经济带来的机遇和影响,提出了在利率市场化进程中所应采取的措施。最后得出了我们一定要坚定利率市场化的道路,加快利率市场化的步伐。     

利率市场化条件下我国利率风险的现状及对策

20世纪70年代以前,由于我国对利率实行严格的管制,使商业银行更多的关注银行的信用风险,而忽视了利率风险.但随着1996年我国利率市场化进程的开始,利率风险问题对于商业银行来说就变得日益突出.文章分析了利率市场化条件下我国商业银行利率风险的现状,并提出了对策.     

我国利率市场化改革的利弊分析

目前中国的金融改革已进入关键时期,入世后金融市场逐步向外开放。面对国际国内的复杂形势,我们在巩固已有成果的基础上,必须进一步开展利率市场化的改革,提高资源配置的效率,提升自身的实力,有效参与国际竞争。本文基于我国利率市场化改革的历史与现状,对改革的有利因素和不利因素进行了深入分析,并提出相应的政策建议,为我国明确改革导向,制定相关政策提供一定的参考价值。     

浅析利率市场化进程深化背景下我国商业银行的健康发展

在利率市场化改革不断深入推进的背景下,政策性红利逐渐消退,商业银行利率受市场性因素的影响越来越大,银行如果继续以资产外延性为特征的低效率的扩张将不能适应新的形势,以金融创新及市场研究为特点的内涵型的业务发展将决定未来银行的盈利空间。所以,正确把握利率市场化的内涵和发展现状,综合分析利率市场化对商业银行的综合影响,在此基础上采取措施减少利率市场化对商业银行带来的不利影响,是非常有必要的。     

我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的分析

在市场经济中,利率市场化对证券金融市场的改革和发展有着重要而深远的意义。目前,我国利率市场化改革已经进入实质性的攻坚阶段由,由实行利率管制逐步演化到利率市场化。探究我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的实质性关系,阐明我国利率市场化作用于证券市场的机制、改革进程及风险防范,对建构科学、健康、有序的证券市场有借鉴意义。     

基于利率市场化的商业银行风险控制对策探讨

利率市场化是市场经济发展的必然要求,是我国利率管理体制改革的既定目标。在当前利率市场化的思路和进程逐渐明晰的前提下,应积极创造条件以推进利率市场化改革的进程,防范和化解利率市场化进程中隐藏的各种风险。根椐中国的实际情况及国外成功经验,提出我国在利率市场化改革进程中商业银行风险控制管理的对策。     

我国汇率与存款利率的关系研究：2000.1-2007.8

本文通过对2000年1月到2007年8月期间的人民币汇率与利率的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验,并采用单位根检验,建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了二者的关系。结果表明,汇率变动影响着居民储蓄存款利率的变化较为显著,而居民储蓄存款利率影响汇率变动的力度较弱。我国存在着阻碍汇率利率联动的制度、经济等因素。     

Foreign interest rate shocks and exchange rate regimes in East Asia

Using a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and an empirical panel vector autoregression, we assess the transmission of foreign real interest rate shocks on the volatility of various key macroeconomic variables in nine small open economies in East Asia taking into account the role of exchange rate regimes. Both the theoretical and empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that flexible exchange rate may work as a shock absorber when the economy is hit by foreign real interest rate shocks. The findings suggest a clear trade-off between the volatility of real exchange rate and real output to foreign interest rate shocks, both the US and G7 real interest rates, where the responses of real output are mitigated in countries that have more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate

The measurement of credibility and reputation is fundamental for the analysis of countries which adopted inflation targeting. Under this perspective, the objective of this article is to illustrate which measures of credibility and reputation are most useful in predicting variations of interest rates. Given a specific inflation target, this relationship is valuable for central bankers as well as for private agents trying to predict the central bank's policies. Due to the fact that Brazil represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a half decade can be observed, an analysis through several indices and its relation with the basic interest rate is made. The findings denote that the credibility indices based on reputation represent an alternative in the cases where the series of inflation expectation are not available. Furthermore, the empirical evidence confirms the hypothesis that higher credibility implies lower variations in the interest rate for controlling inflation.     

Empirical analysis of the monetary policy transmission through interest rate channel in China

With the deregulation of interest rates in China, the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission is becoming more and more important. Firstly, this paper makes empirical studies on the transmission mechanism in China represented by the conventional interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission by using the Granger causality test. The result shows that there is no causality neither between investment expenditure and the market interest rate nor between household consumption and the market interest rate, which suggests that the transmission of monetary policy in China is impeded. Then the reasons from three aspects including interest rate liberalization, asset-backed securitization and household consumption behavior are analyzed.     

Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method is proposed in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data prior to 1999. We show that, for the pre-EMU period, using risk-unadjusted policy rates leads to periods of high risk premia being erroneously taken as monetary policy replies to the output gap; in contrast, using risk-adjusted policy rates yields an estimate of the reaction of monetary policy to the output gap corresponding approximately to an increase of 40 basis points for a 1%positive deviation of output from potential output. A positive deviation of inflation from its trend of 1%is estimated to have triggered an approximately 1.2%increase in short-term interest rates.     

The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules

This article demonstrates the diverse dynamic possibilities arising out of a simple macroeconomic model of debt-financed investment-led growth in the presence of interest rate rules. We show possibilities of convergence to steady state, and growth cycles around it as well as various complex dynamics. We investigate whether, given this framework, the financial sector can provide endogenous bounds to an otherwise unstable system. The effectiveness of monetary policy in the form of an interest rate rule targeting capacity utilization is examined under this context.