Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns

Over the past decade, state and local policymakers and business leaders across the U.S. have expressed concern regarding the ability to attract and retain skilled workers, given the economic climate of their states compared with other parts of the nation. Examining the factors underlying state-level migration trends is important to determine what role, if any, public policy might play in addressing their potential impact on local labor supply. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service for each of the 48 states in the continental United States from 1977 through 2006, this paper examines the role of three economic factors—namely labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability—in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. Estimates from a logistic model of out-migration show that while all three measures of relative economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, the magnitude of their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income as a determining factor has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Interestingly, the role of labor market conditions—while significant throughout the entire 30-year period—was most prominent in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Estimates from the model are used to forecast migration for 2009 for selected states. The results from this exercise are surprisingly accurate when compared to actual state migration patterns for that year.     

Japanese and U.S. interventions in the yen/U.S. dollar market: estimating the monetary authorities’ reaction functions

This paper uses recently released official data on the foreign exchange market interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities in the yen/U.S. dollar market during the period 1991–2001 to examine the motivation for the intervention policy. We also compare the Japanese intervention policy with the U.S. intervention policy. Our results suggest that the Japanese authorities regularly responded to deviations of the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate from a short-term and a long-term exchange rate target. By contrast, the U.S. authorities intervened only occasionally and seemed to have merely reinforced Japanese interventions.     

Labor force migration, non-labor force migration, and non-employment reasons for migration

This paper documents the extent and nature of non-employment factors in migration. The labor force status of over 18 million recent interstate migrants in the United States and stated reasons for moving reported in several surveys in the U.S. are examined. Labor force migrants are heterogeneous in terms of the relationships between acquisition of employment and the migration decision, and in terms of the influence of decision makers outside of the migrant household including firms and the government. Numerically important categories of migrants not traditionally captured in migration models exist, including the elderly, the military, and movers from abroad. Whereas non-employment reasons are secondary to employment reasons for a majority of labor force migrants, non-employment factors are singularly important or operate in combination with employment factors for the majority of all migrants. The heterogeneity of migrant types and migration reasons needs to be better captured in migration models.     

中、美、日实际均衡汇率模型的构建及实证研究

本文基于BEKK-MGARCH模型建立了中、美、日三国的实际均衡汇率方程和方差方程,对1994年以来中国、美国和日本的实际均衡汇率及其波动溢出效应进行了深入细致的分析。结果表明:三个国家的实际均衡汇率受其经济基本面因素的影响不同,人民币实际均衡汇率还受到了美元和日元实际汇率的影响;中美、中日、美日之间的联动关系存在显著的ARCH和GARCH效应。     

Information theoretic approach to migration analysis

Information theory is employed to look at certain aspects of migration. It is suggested that the dividedness of a population into “movers” and “stayers” is better assessed by migration entropy. The notion of “migration inequality” is introduced and the principle of minimum entropy suggested as a criterion for fitting migrations models. Canadian census data are utilized for illustration purposes.     

Occupational change,employer change,internal migration,and earnings

"In this paper I use microdata from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics to measure the financial returns to intercounty and interstate migration for individuals in a temporal framework accounting for gains that accrue over time....To account for the indirect effects of migration on earnings, explanatory variables are created by interacting migration status with: (1) occupational change, (2) employer change and (3) changes in both occupation and employer. These interaction terms are then included in the earnings functions. Earnings are estimated for three years subsequent to the migration decision to account for the financial returns to migration accruing over time. Results indicate that, when estimating earnings, the use of a simple migration dummy variable will mask the indirect effects of migration on earnings."     

Freedom and gross in-migration: an empirical study of the post-great recession experience

Determinants of migration, including policy variables such as tax rates, have been extensively studied by regional scientists over the past several decades. The development of the Economic Freedom of North America Index has allowed researchers to test the relationship between migration patterns and economic freedom, with recent studies finding that net in-migration is positively related to economic freedom. Using a new cross-section measure of economic and personal freedom at the state level, we investigate the relationship between gross in-migration and economic freedom on the one hand and then between gross in-migration and total freedom on the other hand. This empirical study of domestic U.S. migration during the post-Great Recession period finds clear evidence that migrants prefer to move to those states affording higher levels of economic freedom and higher levels of total freedom.     

Projecting the net migration rate of the school age population

This paper analyzes the net migration rate of the school age population in substate levels (minor civil divisions) between 1960 and 1970. The investigation includes a series of estimation procedures in order to carry out the analyses. The estimation procedures are unbiased techniques (ordinary least squares and maximum R² improvement), biased techniques (ridge regression, generalized ridge regression and principal components regression), as well as robust techniques (least absolute deviation and Hill-Holland). For each of these estimation procedures, a model was developed, based on a sample of 50 minor civil divisions in the State of New Jersey. A cross validation was made on two subsequent samples of 50 minor civil divisions each in order to measure the amount of reduced shrinkage of the square of the multiple correlation.     

Migration transition or migration transformation in the Asian dragon economies?

There has been a marked tendency to interpret the recent transformation of international migration systems in Eastern Asia in terms of a ‘migration transition’ model. The transition in these countries from net emigration to net immigration, with major inflows from poorer adjacent countries, is seen as being driven by an intricate regional pattern of uneven development but growing economic integration. This paper challenges this view through an examination of the trade, investment and migration linkages of the region’s four dragon economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan). It argues that the key influences on their international migration streams reflect, above all, the functions of these states as second-order, global city regions. Their place in the global capitalist system creates a shared demand for very particular types of both highly skilled and unskilled labour, but the migration policies of the four states are independently, and therefore distinctively, socially constructed. — Il y a une tendance à utiliser un modèle de ‘transition de migration’ pour interpréter les transformations récentes des systèmes de migration internationaux en Asie de l’est. La transition de l’émigration nette à l’immigration nette dans ces pays, avec des arrivées massives des pays adjacents plus pauvres, est supposée être due à un modèle régional complexe de développement inégal mais d’intégration économique croissante. Cet article questionne ce modèle et examine les liens entre le commerce, l’investissement, et la migration dans les quatre économies dragons de la région (Hong Kong, Singapour, la Corée du sud et Taï?wan). Il soutient que les influences majeures sur leur flux de migration internationale reflète avant tout les fonctions de ces états en tant que régions urbaines globales de deuxième ordre. Leur place dans le système capitaliste global crée une demande pour un type très particulier de travailleurs qualifiés et non qualifiés, mais les politiques de migration des quatre états sont indépendemment, et donc distinctement, socialement construites.     

Forecasting competitive behavior: An assessment of AT&T's incentive to extend its U.S. network

Competitive analysis is used to forecast how, where and when AT&T will integrate backward into the production of its own local access. By using a net present value framework to model AT&T's decision on whether to create additional capacity for collecting and distributing its long-distance traffic, a realistic assessment of the scope and timing of such action is achieved. Thus, a technique outside the usual class of those used in U.S. telecommunications demand forecasting is applied. The effects of two local exchange company rate structures for switched access are compared. Revenue at risk to a local exchange company totaled approximately $267 million for rates in effect, as compared to $100 million under a flattened rate structure.     

Neighborhood Quality and Climate as Factors in U.S. Net Migration Patterns, 1974–76

Abstract . Two determinants of net migration into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 1974–76 are established. First, using objective indices of the quality of neighborhoods (NQL), such as crime rates, earlier research failed to find a significant relation between NQL and migration. Using OLS regressions, we find that variations in perceived NQL have a significant effect on net migration. Our measure of perceived NQL is based on newly available Census survey data. An appendix contains our NQL indices for 57 SMSAs. Second, we find summer humidity, in addition to winter temperature, has a highly significant effect on migration patterns.     

The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany

In this paper, we investigate the degree to which productivity adjusted deviations from PPP influence the U.S. inbound FDI. Our results show a significant negative relationship between productivity adjusted misalignments and the U.S. inbound FDI from Germany and the United Kingdom in the short-run, and a positive relationship in the long-run. Hence, indicating that a positive misalignment—undervalued U.S. dollar—leads to a decrease in the U.S. inbound FDI in the short-run and to an increase in the long-run. No significant evidence is found for Japan. Interestingly, unadjusted real exchange rate changes show no statistically significant relationship with respect to the U.S. inbound FDI. The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments.     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.     

The effects of college and military populations on models of interstate migration

College and military migration represent almost one-fourth of all interstate migration in the U.S. Often the flows of these populations are substantially different from those of the civilian labor force to which traditional human capital models of migration apply. Separate migration models accounting for the special circumstances of these disaggregated populations lead to improved specification of migration between states.     

The exchange value of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance: An empirical investigation based on cointegradon and Granger causality tests

This article performs tests of Granger causality in the relationships between the nominal ad real exchange rates of the dollar and the U.S. trade balance as well as its price and quantity components over the period 1973:IIQ–1989:IIIQ. Our results suggest: (i) weak statistical evidence of unidirectional causality running from the nominal exchange rate to import prices and nominal trade balance (ii) no statistical support for the proposition that the real exchange rate simply “accommodates” changes in the real trade balance, and (iii) strong (no) causal links between the nominal and real exchange rates and export (import) volume. We tentatively conclude that movements in the exchange rate have a rather limited effect on the trade balance and that this effect is more likely to materialize on the export side of the trade balance.     

The impact of deviation from relative purchasing power parity equilibrium on U.S. foreign direct investment

Analyzing inbound and outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) between the U.S. and seven developed countries over the period from 1994 to 2004, this study provides strong evidence for a positive relationship between aggregate FDI flows and a strengthening of a home currency. Further, taking exchange rate disequilibrium into account, we find that an increase in U.S. inbound FDI is related to a strengthening of an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar, while an increase in U.S. outbound FDI (foreign inbound FDI) is mainly related to a strengthening of an overvalued foreign currency. Disaggregate FDI flow data show that these findings hold mainly for the manufacturing (food and machinery) and the wholesale industry. We argue that our findings may provide evidence for a co-existence of the wealth-effect hypothesis and a more profit and production oriented hypothesis, once the U.S. dollar is undervalued. Additionally, the results support the argument that the profit and production oriented hypothesis dominates the wealth effect in developed countries, especially in the manufacturing and wholesale industry. Moreover, the results support the view that foreign investors are interested in how overvalued or undervalued a currency is, rather than being interested only in the recent direction of change in the exchange rate. Finally, all findings are robust with respect to several estimation procedures.     

On the Technically Efficient Organization of an Industry: A Study of U.S. Airlines

In nonparametric analysis of production efficiency, the focus of attention is typically on the individual firm. In this article, we evaluate efficiency in resource utilization at the industry level. We propose an integer programming model to measure the extent of input saving possible if the observed output level of the industry is allocated to an optimal number of identical firms. This approach is applied to data for U.S. airlines covering the period 1970–84. Our results confirm that there were too few airlines prior to deregulation and suggest that there were too many firms during the early years of the post-deregulation era.     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

The future of the dollar–euro exchange rate

Monetary unification in Europe is expected to produce a major new international currency, which may compete with the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice in foreign exchange transactions, financial asset markets and central bank reserves. This study considers two important issues regarding the euro: its global role as medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value and its position relative to the U.S. dollar. Among the main considerations are differences in cyclical behavior, inflation differentials, trade patterns and capital flows, and risk-return assessments. External diversification of private portfolios and of central banks’ reserve holdings will play a key role in determining the euro’s exchange rate. Overall, despite its rough start, we argue that the euro may emerge as a challenger to the U.S. dollar.