An econometric analysis of the effects of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility

The paper investigates price dynamics under market liberalization, with a focus on the effects of lowering price floors. We analyze price dynamics by specifying and estimating a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility, where the market price is censored by a government-set support price. The model is applied to the U.S. butter market over the last three decades. The econometric results show how the price support program affects both expected prices and the volatility of prices. It is found that the censoring effects of a price support program can be significant and large even if the price support is set relatively low.

Stylised features of consumer price setting behaviour in Portugal: 1992–2001

This paper identifies the empirical stylized features of consumer price setting behavior in Portugal using two micro-datasets underlying the consumer price index. The main conclusions are: one in every four prices change each month; there is a considerable degree of heterogeneity in price setting practices; prices of goods change more often than prices of services; price reductions are common, as they account to around 40% of total price changes; price changes are, in general, sizeable; finally, the price setting patterns seem to depend on the level of inflation as well as on the type of outlet.

Exploring the relationship between technical and service characteristics

The paper explores the complex relationship between technical and service characteristics discussed by the Saviotti–Metcalfe model of innovation. It is proposed that principal components analysis (PCA) is a more appropriate method of analysing this relationship than approaches previously used. A PCA is performed on a dataset of mobile phone handsets for the period 2003 to 2008. In addition to the relationship between technical and service characteristics, the analysis explores the existence of clusters of ergonomic characteristics within mobile phone handsets. The findings indicate that a limited set of core technology components underpin the large set of service characteristics offered by mobile phone handsets, and that the mapping between technical and service characteristics can be highly complex.

Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices

Austrian business cycle theory has become an important point of focus in controversial mainstream discussions regarding the role of asset prices in monetary policy. In this article, the relation between asset prices and the Austrian business cycle theory is examined. The analysis focuses on how central banking supports optimism, resulting in the redirection of entrepreneurial activity and knowledge via asset price bubbles. The crucial role of credit expansion for asset price booms is also analyzed. Following this analysis, the implications for monetary policy are deduced.

Locational choice and price competition: some empirical results for the austrian retail gasoline market

Using data from the Austrian retail gasoline market we find that a higher station density reduces average prices. Market (i.e. ownership) concentration does not significantly affect average price, however is negatively related to the density of stations. Estimation of the pricing and entry equations as simultaneous equations does not alter our conclusions, and suggests causality running from station density to price. We argue that the spatial dimension of markets allows the identification of market conduct, which is particularly relevant for competition policy.

On the distribution of product price and quality

We investigate the structure of demand by focusing on the distribution of prices within narrowly-defined classes of goods. We observe considerable heterogeneity—products that are functionally similar but presumably of different ‘quality’ may sell at very different prices. We analyze distribution of prices for bottles of wine, used cars, houses in London and week-long holidays in Majorca, and observe in each case that the the resulting distribution is more skewed than the lognormal but less skewed than a Pareto distribution. We then present a theoretical model whereby products can distinguish themselves along multiple hedonic dimensions of ‘performance’, with these product attributes being random variables subject to multiplicative interactions. Variations of this model can reproduce a lognormal price distribution and a Pareto distribution as lower and upper bound benchmarks (respectively).

Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper we analyze a time series of daily average prices in the Italian electricity market, which started to operate as a Pool in April 2004. Our objective is to model the high degree of autocorrelation and the multiple seasonalities in electricity prices. We use periodic time series models with GARCH disturbances and leptokurtic distributions and compare their performance with more classical ARMA-GARCH processes. The within-year seasonal variation is modelled using the low-frequency components of physical quantities, which are very regular throughout the sample. Our results reveal that much of the variability in the price series is explained by the interactions between deterministic multiple seasonalities. Periodic AR-GARCH models seem to perform quite well in mimicking the features of the stochastic part of the price process.

‘Chariots of fire’: the evolution of tank technology, 1915–1945

We reconsider the notion of technological trajectories by means of a detailed case-study of the evolution of tank technology between 1915 and 1945. We use principal component analysis to analyze the distribution of technical characteristics and how they map into specific service characteristics. We find that, despite the existence of differences in technical leadership, tank designs of different countries show a high degree of overlap and closeness along a common technological trajectory. In the conclusions, we speculate on whether this pattern can be explained by common heuristics that influenced the rate and direction of design activities or by doctrinal viewpoints influencing the development and use of tanks in the battlefield.

Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices

In connection with the housing market, which is presently raising a great deal of concern among the general public, this paper investigates regional housing prices in Spain using variable co-integration techniques. It analyzes the asymmetric behavior in real house prices among the Spanish regions focusing on the study of the long-term relationships over time. This paper raises an important question of the national averages masking important regional asymmetries. Results indicate evidence of co-integration, which suggests a broad grouping of regions based on physical proximity or similar economic characteristics.

Political pressures and the credibility of regulation: can profit sharing mitigate regulatory risk?

When price-cap rules determine the structure of prices for a long period, they suffer a credibility problem and introduce an element of risk especially if a firm’s profits are “too large”. Profit sharing may be seen as a device to pre-determine price adjustments and thus to decrease regulatory risk. We analyse the effects of profit sharing on the incentives to invest, using a real option approach. Absent credibility issues, a well designed profit sharing system may be neutral relative to a pure price cap. With regulatory risk, profit sharing is preferable to a pure price-cap one, if it intervenes for high enough profit levels.

Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis

This paper empirically tests the law of one price by applying unit root tests to three panels consisting of data on 90 consumer price indices for the EU-25, the EU-15 and the 10 new EU member countries that joined the EU in 2004. The four major findings of this paper are: (1) panel unit root tests find evidence of price convergence for about 70% of all product groups, (2) the results are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire country implying that any conclusions must be based on all bilateral combinations, (3) the average half life across all product groups is 2.0 years, (4) the overall evidence for the law of one price is weaker in the 10 new EU member countries than in the EU-15.

The Value Relevance of Earnings and Nonearnings Information in Regulated and Deregulated Markets: The Case of the Airline Industry

This paper examines the valuation effects of earnings and two nonearnings-based measurements (book values and operating cash flow) on security prices of airline companies under two different market structures: regulated and deregulated. The literature lacks empirical evidence in examining the relative importance of earnings and nonearnings accounting-based measurements in regulated and deregulated markets, especially in the airlines industry. We compare coefficient estimates of regressing stock prices on earnings, book value, and cash flow from operations of airline companies during regulated and deregulated times. A control sample of manufacturing companies is also used for supporting inferences from the airline sample’s findings. In a typical regulated market, using cost recovery plus an adequate rate of return on assets, security prices are highly aligned with nonearnings measurements such as the book value. In the airline industry, regulation took the form of guaranteed routes and subsidies to service rural areas, giving rise to a differential effect of both earnings and nonearnings measurements. Under deregulation, airline firms operate in highly competitive markets with large airline firms enjoying the benefits of economy of scale and service diversification. Thus, the asset capitalization (book value), cash flow, and operational efficiencies (earnings) would be major indicators in the market assessment of the firm’s future profitability and security price. This paper finds that nonearnings measures have higher explanatory power of security prices in regulated times for the airline firms. In deregulated times, although earnings have a stronger relationship with prices, nonearnings measures continued to influence stock price levels, reflecting airline specific economics.

Modes of innovation in knowledge-intensive business services evidence from Lombardy

The present paper investigates the sectoral variety and common patterns across different typologies of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS). We examine this issue by considering the case of Lombardy, a highly developed manufacturing area the industrial activities of which are experiencing a pervasive transformation towards higher knowledge content, demanding stronger and more pervasive support by advanced services. Drawing on an original survey-based firm-level dataset, we analyze innovation patterns across KIBS, evaluating the explanatory power of traditional classifications of the service sector, as well as the heterogeneity driven by firm and market specific characteristics. Our findings highlight four profiles of KIBS: interactive innovation mode, product innovation mode, conservative innovation mode and techno-organizational innovation mode. When examining in more depth the variables that are associated with cluster membership, we find that firm strategy is the most significant determinant, with size, customer location, and training also playing a role in defining cluster specificities.

Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices

This paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model for UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The estimated VAR indicates that the nominal variables are characterised by I(2) trends, and that a linear combination of these processes cointegrate to I(1). This supports an analysis in which I(1) and I(2) restrictions are imposed. A key finding is that an increase in real import prices reduces productivity adjusted real wages, such that the change in domestic inflation is moderated. This may explain why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged.

Price-setting behavior of Austrian firms

This paper explores nominal rigidities by investigating price-setting behavior of Austrian firms based on survey evidence. Distinguishing between two stages of price setting—first the price reviewing phase and second the price changing phase—our results suggest that the main obstacles to price flexibility lie on the second stage. Our main result is that firms postpone price adjustments, because they are afraid to antagonize customers with frequent price changes. Thus, customer relationships - especially those with consumers—are a major source of price stickiness in the Austrian economy.

Export variety and the economic performance of countries

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent.

Demand by product characteristics: measuring solar cell quality over time

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of innovation quality as a success factor of companies that satisfy demand in government-subsidized science-based markets. This paper focuses on the Photovoltaic market in Germany as a case study. It carries out the analysis in three stages. First, the efficiency of photovoltaic product characteristics is examined using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Second, by means of a metric re-scaling approach, the technical improvement of solar modules offered on the German market is analyzed over time. Next, the results of the second stage are compared to demand growth (evolution of market shares). In conclusion, it can be shown that innovation quality in science-based markets is often an explanation of long-term growth, but occasionally a reduction of performance characteristics meets demand.

Modelling financial transaction price movements: a dynamic integer count data model

In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture fundamental properties of financial prices at the transaction level. Our model relies on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is particularly suited for financial markets where the trading intensity is moderate or low. We present the model at work by applying it to transaction data of two shares traded at the NYSE traded over a period of one trading month. We show that the model is well suited to test some theoretical implications of the market microstructure theory on the relationship between price movements and other marks of the trading process. Based on density forecast methods modified for the case of discrete random variables we show that our model is capable to explain large parts of the observed distribution of price changes at the transaction level.

Intra-industry differences in vertical integration, heterogeneous costs and pricing: the case of web hosting

In many differentiated product industries, both traditional and “new economy” activities, vertically integrated firms also supply inputs to apparent rivals in the downstream business. This generates heterogeneity between low- and high-sunk cost suppliers with implications for entry and competitive conduct. The web hosting market is typical with primary suppliers operating alongside resellers who rent server space from them. We explore the impact of competition in US hosting using a unique dataset covering 15,000 packages offered by 3,500 firms. The results suggest price is sensitive to competitor clustering in quality space; an outcome consistent with easy entry for resellers with ultra-low fixed costs.

How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market?

We introduce a new empirical methodology that models liquidity risk over short time periods for impatient traders who submit market orders. Using Value-at-Risk type measures, we quantify the liquidity risk premia for portfolios and individual stocks traded on the automated auction market Xetra. The specificity of our approach relies on the adequate econometric modelling of the potential price impact incurred by the liquidation of a portfolio. We study the sensitivity of liquidity risk towards portfolio size and traders' time horizon, and interpret its diurnal variation in the light of market microstructure theory.

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