National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.     

SHERLOCK HOLMES AND THE SEARCH FOR TRUTH: A DIAGNOSTIC TALE

Abstract. In four novels and fifty-six short stories, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle developed the characters of Mr. Sherlock Holmes and his trusted friend and chronicler, Dr. John Watson. The creation of the brilliant sleuth and his partner who, although not possessing genius, stimulated it in his friend, was a masterstroke. The adventures, memoirs, return, last bow, and case book of Sherlock Holmes, as well as the four famous novels, are stories of sheer delight. Econometrics may not have the everlasting charm of Holmesian characters and adventures, or even a famous resident of Baker Street, but there is much in his methodological approach to the solving of criminal cases that is of relevance to applied econometric modelling. Holmesian detection may be interpreted as accommodating the relationship between data and theory, modelling procedures, deductions and inferences, analysis of biases, testing of theories, specification and respecification of theories, re-evaluation and reformulation of theories, and finally reaching a solution to the problem at hand. With this in mind, can applied econometricians learn anything from the master of detection? This paper provides an outline of Holmesian deduction through the various stages of accommodation, namely problem solving, theorizing before data, examining the quality of data, the meaning of truth, reconciliation with data, and testing of theories. Testing procedures, especially the use of diagnostics, are the most common research method used in econometrics for examining a number of specifications within a modelling cycle of specification, estimation and evaluation. A diagnostic approach to the evaluation of empirical models is outlined through testing the key assumptions which define the parameter space for purposes of inference.     

MIS用户界面自动生成工具设计与实现

文章介绍一种MIS用户界面自动生成工具,其生成工具可支持多种MIS用户界面的开发。     

在ASP.NET中用户控件的使用

用户控件可以解决很多不适合直接采用服务器控件或HTML控件解决的问题,使编程人员能够很容易地跨ASP.NET WEB应用程序划分和重复使用公共UI功能。本文针对用户控件的优点,讨论如何在ASP.NET中使用用户控件。     

Software Review: Theory and Practice of Econometric Modelling using PcGive10

This review offers a guided tour to PcGive 10 modules for econometrics analysis of time series (PcGive), limited dependent variable (LogitJD) and static and dynamic panel data analyses (DPD), financial econometric (GARCH) and time series (ARFIMA) modelling. Several empirical applications are reported to illustrate the package.     

General-to-Specific Modelling Using PcGets

Abstract.  This review examines the facilities provided by PcGets version 1.0, an OxMetrics module designed to implement automated general-to-specific model selection in the context of cross-section or dynamic time-series models that are linear in the parameters. A cross-section empirical example is used to illustrate the steps involved, the output produced and the options available for modellers.     

Interactive analysis of high-dimensional association structures with graphical models

Graphical chain models are a powerful tool for analyzing multivariate data. Their practical use may still be cumbersome in some respects, since fitting the model requires a lengthy selection strategy based on the calculation of an enormous number of different regressions. In this paper, we present a computer system especially designed for the calculation of graphical chain models, which will not only automatically carry out the model search but also visualize the corresponding graph at each stage of the model fit. In addition, it allows the user to modify the graph and to fit the model interactively.     

解析网络教学平台界面设计中视觉创意的重要性

随着信息技术和教学水平的发展,依托网络资源建设多媒体教学环境逐渐成为现代教育中不可或缺的重要教学方式之一。网络教学平台用户进行远程学习首先是从接触界面开始,作为构建网络教学平台的重要元素的界面设计已成为当前设计研究的热点。本文针对目前国内网络教学平台界面设计中存在的问题进行分析,提出界面设计的视觉创意的重要性与改进方案。     

智能化防伪包装技术综述

介绍了当前流行的多种智能化防伪包装技术的主要特点、防伪原理、运用效果及发展现状,提出合理选用防伪包装技术要按五项指标综合考虑。     

基于Matlab的静电场镜像法可视化软件的实现

各种电场都具有复杂的空间分布,为了更好的理解场的空间分布特点,绘制随空间变化的可视化图形是非常必要的。本文基于静电场镜像法得到了四种常见边界下电场和电位的解析解,并利用Matlab的可视化功能实现了电场和电位的三维模拟显示,最后编制了通用的可视化软件。该软件界面友好,可以通过更改四种边界下的参数得到对应条件的电场和电位的空间分布,通过互动可以激发学习兴趣、帮助加深理解并提高学习效果。     

用于先进PCB制造技术的堆叠封装技术研究

球栅阵列封装器件和芯片尺寸封装器件的研究和应用使得印刷电路板的组装密度和性能得到了提高,达到了二维组装密度的极限。但如同之前的通孔直插器件和表面贴装器件一样,它们在电学、机械、热性能、尺寸、质量和可靠性方面达到最大值。目前,3D多芯片堆叠组装正在成为未来先进印刷电路板制造工艺的发展方向。按照结构特征可把其分为芯片堆叠封装和封装堆叠封装,重点对其中成本最低、性能最先进的元器件堆叠封装技术进行了研究。     

基于MCGS组态软件的排气台集中监控系统设计

本文从硬件构成和软件开发两个方面介绍了真空排气台集中监控系统的设计与实现。上位机监控画面的设计由MCGS绘图工具箱提供的各种控件组合而成,各个仪表和模块与上位机通信主要通过设备窗口和串口完成,选择性记录和报警功能的实现主要由MCGS的策略工具和脚本语言完成。     

Concept-based query language approach to enterprise information systems

In enterprise information systems (EISs) it is necessary to model, integrate and compute very diverse data. In advanced EISs the stored data often are based both on structured (e.g. relational) and semi-structured (e.g. XML) data models. In addition, the ad hoc information needs of end-users may require the manipulation of data-oriented (structural), behavioural and deductive aspects of data. Contemporary languages capable of treating this kind of diversity suit only persons with good programming skills. In this paper we present a concept-oriented query language approach to manipulate this diversity so that the programming skill requirements are considerably reduced. In our query language, the features which need technical knowledge are hidden in application-specific concepts and structures. Therefore, users need not be aware of the underlying technology. Application-specific concepts and structures are represented by the modelling primitives of the extended RDOOM (relational deductive object-oriented modelling) which contains primitives for all crucial real world relationships (is-a relationship, part-of relationship, association), XML documents and views. Our query language also supports intensional and extensional–intensional queries, in addition to conventional extensional queries. In its query formulation, the end-user combines available application-specific concepts and structures through shared variables.     

基于灰理想关联分析的数字图书馆用户界面评价

针对在高校数字图书馆用户界面评价中存在不确定性和复杂性因素较多的问题,首先基于熵权法确定高校数字图书馆用户界面评价指标的权重,其次结合灰色关联分析法和TOPSIS法,构建基于熵权法的灰理想关联评价模型,对各高校数字图书馆用户界面进行灰理想关联评价。并以某四个高校数字图书馆用户界面综合评价为例介绍该模型的具体应用。计算结果表明:应用该模型对某四个高校数字图书馆用户界面进行评价可行、有效。     

基于用户感知价值的高校图书馆服务工作

在顾客感知价值理论框架下,剖析了图书馆用户感知价值及其表现形式,提出高校图书馆应以用户需求为导向,加强各项资源建设,最大限度地满足各层次用户需求,提升用户价值。     

苹果消费需求影响因素的实证分析

苹果是我国居民重要的生活消费品。本文在分析影响苹果消费需求因素的基础上,运用一元和多元线性回归模型对各主要影响因素的影响程度进行了实证分析。研究表明:苹果消费需求对人均可支配收入与城市化水平的反应较为敏感,且呈现正相关关系;但苹果消费需求对苹果平均价格弹性不足,呈现负相关关系。因此应该提高居民收入水平,稳步推进城市化建设,进一步拉动居民的苹果消费需求。     

对国有企业在职消费问题学术研究的规范性思考

国有企业高管在职消费问题从经济学理论角度还没有建立起完善的理论框架,尽管国外有些文献有过对高管在职消费的论述,但也仅仅停留在对先前某些理论的验证层面。国内的研究忽略了理论层面不够完善的问题,在没有很好地区分国有企业高管在职消费与非高管在职消费前提下应用计量模型进行分析,所形成的结论虽在一定程度上解释了在职消费产生的原因及其影响,但对于国有企业高管在职消费的解释程度仍不够。本文认为,主要原因在于对某些问题的范畴使用混乱和某些概念替代混乱导致了这一结果,而这些问题似乎可以通过构建理论框架和计量模型等进行更为深入的分析。     

1991～2006年物流业对吉林省经济增长作用的实证分析

文章应用计量经济学的分析方法,建立了吉林省经济增长和物流业相互关系的计量经济模型,分析了吉林省物流业与经济增长之间的数量关系,测定了物流业对吉林省经济发展的贡献,为确定物流业在吉林省经济发展的地位,为制订吉林省物流业的发展规划提供必要的决策依据。