中国机构投资者投资行为的异化

在我国机构投资者迅猛发展的同时,其投资行为也在发生异化,与政府和市场的最初预期产生明显的偏羞。机构投资者投资行为的异化典型地表现为：短视行为、羊群行为、处置效应和违法违规行为。机构投资者投资行为的异化严重扰乱了证券市场的正常秩序,加剧了市场风险的累积。中国证券市场的非理性波动其实并非由非理性的个人投资者所引起,而正是由行为相对更为“理性”的机构投资者（他们构成了庄家的大部分）所引起。     

杠杆投资者融资交易行为模式研究——来自A股市场的经验证据

自2010年证监会推出融资融券方案以来,A股市场上融资交易和融资余额都出现了较为显著的增长.目前A股市场上融资余额总量已达到万亿元的水平,对于中国股市的重要性日趋增加.有鉴于此,有必要对杠杆投资者的融资交易行为模式以及其对A股定价机制的影响进行更加深入地研究.本文通过实证研究检验杠杆投资者的融资交易行为模式与市场回报率、流动性等重要指标之间的相关关系.研究发现,滞后股票收益与杠杆投资者的净融资交易额之间存在着显著的正相关关系,说明我国杠杆投资者总体而言是追涨杀跌的趋势追逐者.股票价格下跌对融资交易的影响显著大于股票价格上涨所带来的影响,且这种不对称性在很大程度上是由市场收益而非个股异质性收益所引起的.此外,杠杆投资者的融资交易行为与未来股票周度收益之间存在负相关关系,这种负相关主要是由融资净卖出所引起的.     

行为金融学与投资者行为的政策调控

政府和投资者一样都在寻求一种能够获取利润并且控制风险的办法,实现“共赢”.“共赢”是股票市场调控的想理结果,达到这一目标必须了解投资者的投资行为对于股票市场的影响,分析总结投资者的行为模式,并且在分析过程中,采取适当的措施对投资者进行引导.     

我国证券市场投资者非理性行为的治理路径研究——兼论投资者教育体系的构建

构建科学有效的投资者组织运营机制,是我国证券市场投资者教育体系正常运营并顺利实现其教育功能的重要保障。本文从分析我国证券市场投资者的非理性行为入手,提出投资者教育是治理非理性行为的科学路径,并构建了我国证券市场投资者教育体系的系统性框架。在此基础上,本文借鉴发达国家证券市场投资者教育经验,设计了适合我国国情的投资者教育体系组织模式,并给出了我国证券市场投资者教育体系的运营路径。     

论证券投资基金管理者的行为偏离

证券投资者基金管理的行为应是理性的，是为基金投资者的利益最大化服务的，但现实中证券投资基金管理者却存在行为偏离。因此，应从市场环境、监管模式、内部治理结构等方面采取措施，以纠正其行为偏离。     

行为金融学理论综述及其发展展望

行为金融学通过心理学与金融学的有机结合，分析投资者心理对其投资决策的影响，进而分析投资者心理对市场走势的影响。替代传统标准金融学的理性行为假定，从正常行为分析和噪声交易行为出发，行为金融学对于传统金融学所不能合理解释的投资者行为决策，提供了更加实际的、合理的解释路径，并企图揭示投资者的行为特征和市场规律。     

个人投资行为组合理论初探

现代行为金融理论认为,金融资产投资者会基于各种心理原因而导致非理性行为。本文分别对传统金融学、现代行为金融学的理论体系进行介绍。在研究现代投资行为组合理论中个人投资者的两大模式(BPT-SA和BPT-MA)的一般规律后,针对当前我国证券市场中处于弱势的个人投资者提出了有益的建议。     

基于行为金融学对中国股市中个人投资者投资行为的分析

行为金融学突破了古典金融理论中提出的理性人假设和有效市场假设,通过对投资者的认知偏差和行为偏差的综合分析,提出了有限理性假设。中国的股票市场发展时间短,与之相匹配的市场监管和制度还不成熟,但其占绝大多数的参与者——个人投资者,他们的非理性投资行为,对中国股票市场的健康发展产生不利影响。因此,本文从个人投资者的心理因素出发,研究其投资行为模式,并针对其特点提出相应的投资建议,从而提高投资者的决策能力,以期能够降低由于投资者的非理性投资行为而对股票市场产生的影响。     

多行为并存情形下证券虚假陈述的裁判规则研究

同一诉讼纠纷中内嵌多个虚假陈述行为已成为一类新问题，但当前的司法审判在行为认定、模式选择和因果关系判断上存有难点。此类纠纷中，影响证券价格的因素众多，“虚假陈述影响双重劣后考察”的规则不宜继续适用，而应将保护投资者的立场贯穿始终。个案中，宜通过“三步法”分析，明确合并抑或区分的处理模式，以虚假陈述行为是否具备“单一性”作为《虚假陈述若干规定》第八条第三款的适用标准。就交易因果关系而言，判定投资者的交易决策究竟受哪一行为影响时，需综合考察各行为实施日间隔长短、重大性程度及前行为所披露信息在市场的传播密集度等因素，以确定前行为对投资者信赖的影响力截止点。而就损失因果关系而言，一方面要提高非虚假陈述因素扣除的认定标准，另一方面也不应拘泥于数学模型的构建，法官酌情处理的价值应得到重视。     

基于行为金融学理论的我国股市投资者行为研究

文章以行为金融学理论为研究基础,以我国股票市场投资者为研究对象,对我国股票市场投资者非理性投资决策行为的成因进行定性分析,研究显示:在弱式有效的股票市场环境下,投资者前期信息认知偏差和后期心理判断偏差是造成其非理性投资决策的主要原因,前者是由于市场信息不对称、噪音信息干扰以及投资者信息判断偏误造成,后者是投资者个人心理误判所造成.在此基础上,结合我国股票市场发展实况,文章从内外部两个层面提出规范监管主体行为,实现理性监管;规范证券中介与上市公司行为,实现理性经营;规范投资者行为,实现理性决策三大对策来减少我国股市投资者的非理性投资决策,最终形成良好的资本市场投资生态环境.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.