法规与标准双管齐下监管评级市场——信用评级标准与相关法律法规的衔接

中国人民银行今日发布的金融行业标准（JR／T0030—2006）《信贷市场和银行间债券市场信用评级规范》（下简称（《标准》），分别从评级领域的信用评级主体、业务和管理三个方面作出了详细的规范。其中不仅仅有工作程序、效果、质量等内容的标准化规定；也有评级主体和管理主体在评级和监管过程中的义务、责任、权利的规定。这些规定在整个信用评级监管体系的作用如何，它对于信贷市场和银行间债券市场中资信评级机构和监管机构的行为将会产生的影响，它与现行的法律法规如何衔接，都是值得关注的问题。     

标准对促进我国征信业规范发展的重要作用

征信业标准是现代征信业发展的必然要求和有利保障：征信业作为一种信用信息服务行业，涉及对包括企业和个人在内的众多信息主体信用信息的收集、处理与使用等活动。在信息技术和网络科技高速发展的今天，征信业更加体现出信息化和高科技等特征，其发展必然需要制定相关标准，而征信业标准的制定也会进一步推动征信业的高效发展与规范运作。为此，结合我国征信业发展现状和迫切需要解决的现实问题，中国人民银行于2006年11月21日正式发布了我国首批征信业标准，包括《征信数据元·数据元设计与管理》、《征信数据元·个人征信数据元》、《信贷市场和银行间债券市场信用评级标准第1部分：信用评级主体规范》、《信贷市场和银行间债券市场信用评级标准第2部分：信用评级业务规范》、《信贷市场和银行间债券市场信用评级标准第3部分：信用评级业务管理规范》共5项，为我国征信业的进一步发展打下了坚实的制度基础，创造了有利的规范环境。[第一段]     

《信贷市场和银行间债券市场信用评级规范》评述

随着我国社会主义市场经济的不断发展和国际化程度的不断提高,信用问题已成为了社会共同的热门话题。因为,信用缺失所带来的巨大社会成本已成为我国社会所不堪负的沉重负担,加快建设和建立完善的社会信用体系,自然成为全社会共同的期盼,其中信用评级作为社会信用体系建设的重要环节和基础平台的作用也被逐渐认识与重视。实际     

当前我国债券信用评级的问题及对策建议——以银行间债券市场信用评级为例

当前我国债券信用评级还处于发展初期,存在评级质量不高、无序竞争等问题,难以为投资者提供高质量、权威性的服务,阻碍了信用评级解决市场经济条件下的信息不对称问题、防范信用风险、增强资本市场运作效率等作用的有效发挥。必须究其根本原因,解决相应问题：一是加快征信立法进程,协调强化监管,推动建立社会信用体系,完善债券市场评级外部环境;二是评级机构自身应完善内部管理,提高技术水平,加强自律合作,努力树立行业公信力。     

中美国家信用评级比较与审视

本文从中美国家信用评级机构,信用评级标准以及信用评级影响力等多角度对中美国家信用评级状况进行了比较。指出中美国家信用评级存在分歧并且都具有主观性,美国信用评级机构是市场长期选择的结果,存在明显的寡头特征,中国信用评级机构作为新生事物出现不久,尚待发展。中美国家信用评级的标准具有显著的不同,因此评级结果也有差异。从效果上讲,美国信用评级机构具有巨大的市场占有率,美国国家信用评级结果变动给市场带来的影响显著,且短期内难以改变。     

人民银行与证监会加强信用评级统一管理

为加强对信用评级行业统一监管,推进债券互联互通,近日,中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布2018年第14号公告。《公告》围绕着逐步统一银行间债券市场和交易所债券市场评级业务资质,加强对信用评级机构监管和监管信息共享,推进信用评级机构完善内部制度,统一评级标准,提高评级质量等方面进行了规范。     

基于主体信用评级的中国社会信用体系建设--兼论中国信用评级业的发展战略

中国的社会信用体系建设已经取得了阶段性成果。但是,由于中国的主体信用评级体系尚未建立起来,使得社会信用体系尚处于不完善阶段,信用评级行业也在扭曲的状态下蹒跚前行。鉴于此,需要通过推动主体信用评级,夯实中国社会信用体系的基础,确立信用评级在社会信用体系中的核心地位,推动中国经济和金融的进一步国际化、全球化,加速中国信用评级行业的国际化进程,缓减国内外金融交易主体之间的信息不对称,缓减金融产品与投资者的信息不对称,提高中国经济、金融国际化的安全程度。     

商业银行内部评级与专业评级机构外部评级之间的关系探讨

近几年来,在中国人民银行的领导下,对借款企业的外部评级工作已在全国20多个省市展开,这是建立社会信用体系、健全金融生态环境的重大举措。从社会主义市场经济的长远发展来看,这也是一项利国利     

完善中小企业信用评级体系的建议

目前我国经济体制改革不断深入,在国民经济的发展中中小企业起到了重要的作用。为了使我国国民经济维持健康的发展,保证社会的安定团结,增加人们的就业机会,鼓励科技创新,加强中小企业信用情况的调查和分析,是当前信用建设的必然举措。但是,由于发展较晚,目前来说信用体系的建立和发展等方面仍然存在许多问题。因此,要想正确评价企业的信用等级,科学、有效地评价企业的信用情况,建立完善的信用评级体系是必经之路。     

发展我国债券信用评级市场的思考

我国债券信用评级是伴随着企业债券的发行而产生的。1987年，国务院颁布了《企业债券管理暂行条例》，开始对企业债券及评级进行统一管理。近年来，特别是2005年以来，债券市场的快速发展极大推动了债券信用评级业的发展。今后，随着经济的快速增长，整个债券市场将有更大的发展空间，对债券信用评级提出了巨大的需求。     

Selecting credit rating models: a cross-validation-based comparison of discriminatory power

In commercial banking, various statistical models for corporate credit rating have been theoretically promoted and applied to bank-specific credit portfolios. In this paper, we empirically compare and test the performance of a wide range of parametric and nonparametric credit rating model approaches in a statistically coherent way, based on a ‘real-world’ data set. We repetitively (k times) split a large sample of industrial firms’ default data into disjoint training and validation subsamples. For all model types, we estimate k out-of-sample discriminatory power measures, allowing us to compare the models coherently. We observe that more complex and nonparametric approaches, such as random forest, neural networks, and generalized additive models, perform best in-sample. However, comparing k out-of-sample cross-validation results, these models overfit and lose some of their predictive power. Rather than improving discriminatory power, we perceive their major contribution to be their usefulness as diagnostic tools for the selection of rating factors and the development of simpler, parametric models.

Regulation of credit rating agencies

Financial regulators recognize certain credit rating agencies for regulatory purposes. However, it is often argued that credit rating agencies have an incentive to assign inflated ratings. This paper studies a repeated principal-agent problem in which a regulator approves credit rating agencies. Credit rating agencies may collude to assign inflated ratings. Yet we show that there exists an approval scheme which induces credit rating agencies to assign correct ratings.     

美国资信评级行业监管及启示

美国信用评级业发展已有一百余年的历史,资信评级机构也一直引用声誉理论说明其在评级过程中会保持足够的执业谨慎,但安然破产、次贷危机、欧洲主权债务危机等事件使监管者认识到,仅靠“声誉”无法保证评级机构勤勉尽责,必须加强监管。该文对美国资信评级监管历史进行了简要回顾,分析了资信评级行业存在的主要问题,讨论了多德法案对资信评级行业的监管重点,介绍了多德法案之后资信评级行业监管的后续进展,并对完善我国资信评级监管提出相关建议。     

Corporate financing and anticipated credit rating changes

Firm circumstances change but rating agencies may not make timely revisions to their ratings, thereby increasing information asymmetry between firms and the market. We examine whether firms time the securities market before a credit rating agency publicly reveals its decision to change a firm’s credit rating. Using quarterly data, we show that firms adjust their financing structures before credit rating downgrades are publicly revealed. Specifically, firms on average increase their debt financing by 1.29 % before the disclosure of a rating downgrade, and this increase is due to the issuance of debt rather than the repurchase of equity. In contrast, firms do not take significant financing actions before credit rating upgrades.     

Modelling the economic value of credit rating systems

In this paper we develop a model of the economic value of credit rating systems. Increasing international competition and changes in the regulatory framework driven by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel II) called forth incentives for banks to improve their credit rating systems. An improvement of the statistical power of a rating system decreases the potential effects of adverse selection, and, combined with meeting several qualitative standards, decreases the amount of regulatory capital requirements. As a consequence, many banks have to make investment decisions where they have to consider the costs and the potential benefits of improving their rating systems. In our model the quality of a rating system depends on several parameters such as the accuracy of forecasting individual default probabilities and the rating class structure. We measure effects of adverse selection in a competitive one-period framework by parameterizing customer elasticity. Capital requirements are obtained by applying the current framework released by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Results of a numerical analysis indicate that improving a rating system with low accuracy to medium accuracy can increase the annual rate of return on a portfolio by 30–40 bp. This effect is even stronger for banks operating in markets with high customer elasticity and high loss rates. Compared to the estimated implementation costs banks could have a strong incentive to invest in their rating systems. The potential of reduced capital requirements on the portfolio return is rather weak compared to the effect of adverse selection.     

揭秘信用评级机构背后的盈利模式

20世纪90年代,美国三大评级巨头格局成型,评级成了任何金融产品都必不可少的部分东西,而其中的盈利模式是怎样的呢？     

Observations on measuring the differences between domestic accounting standards and IAS

In an earlier edition of this journal, Ding et al. use data in GAAP 2001 to assess determinants and effects of differences between domestic and international standards. This paper examines whether those data are suitable for the purposes of academic research by outlining the biases and particular features of GAAP 2001. The main problem with the data for research is that the differences from IAS that it records, which focus on rules, are of varying importance for accounting practice. This raises questions about the equal weighting applied by Ding et al. This paper also questions their distinction between absence of IAS requirements and divergence from those requirements. Some doubts are also raised about the independent variables.     

国际信用评级体系改革与中国评级业发展展望

国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,凸显出现行国际信用评级体系存在的种种弊端。该文指出,现行国际信用评级体系的根本缺陷在于高度垄断,为此应通过加强内部治理和外部监管推动现有评级行业的改革,并推动国际信用评级行业新秩序的建立。中国应从宏观政策层面出台措施,扶持和推动本国自主信用评级体系的做大做强,并参与到国际信用评级体系的重建中。     

The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads

We document the ability of the credit default swap (CDS) market to anticipate favorable as well as unfavorable credit rating change (RC) announcements based on more extensive samples of credit rating events and CDS spreads than previous studies. We obtain four new results. In contrast to prior published studies, we find that corporate RC upgrades do have a significant impact on CDS spreads even though they are still not as well anticipated as downgrades. Second, CreditWatch (CW) and Outlook (OL) announcements, after controlling for prior credit rating events, lead to significant CARs at the time positive CW and OL credit rating events are announced. Third, we extend prior results by showing that changes in CDS spreads for non-investment-grade credits contain information useful for estimating the probability of negative credit rating events. Fourth, we find that the CDS spread impact of upgrades but not downgrades is magnified during recessions and that upgrades and downgrades also differ as to the impact of simultaneous CW/OL announcements, investment-grade/speculative-grade crossovers, current credit rating, market volatility, and industry effects.     

Bank lending opportunities and credit standards

This article empirically tests the hypothesis that credit-screening standards can be first increasing and then decreasing in the quality of the bank's pool of potential borrowers, which in turn may vary through the business cycle or across different segments of the lending markets. A key implication is that banks with lending opportunities toward the middle of the quality spectrum can have loan portfolios that perform better than do the portfolios of banks with loan-origination opportunities that are either too weak or too strong. Using banks’ volume of secondary-market loan sales as a proxy for the richness of lending opportunities, I find an inverse U-shaped relation between the performance of banks’ loan portfolios and their activity in the loan sales market. The pattern deserves scrutiny for its policy implications, as many regulators hold the view that countercyclical variation in credit standards may have a destabilizing effect on business cycles.