Asia's contribution to global rebalancing

Developing Asia remains at the core of global payment imbalances. While the geographical concentration of current account imbalances is significant—with the People's Republic of China accounting for the lion's share of the region's current account surplus—how Asia contributes to global rebalancing also depends critically on the newly industrialising economies and larger Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. Given the region's huge diversity, the necessary national macroeconomic and structural policies will vary significantly across Asia's emerging economies. Whereas near‐term rebalancing efforts will be driven primarily by macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, structural reforms are essential for boosting domestic and regional demand as sources of economic growth over medium to long‐term. We argue that regional rebalancing will depend critically on the adoption of deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms and further trade liberalisation to unlock the potential of strong domestic and regional spending—thus reducing Asia's high dependence on extra‐regional demand. Priority policies should include infrastructure spending, competition, trade, financial development, investment, immigration, and other social policies to reduce national savings.     

我国支持“三农”的财税政策机制探析

财税政策作为国家宏观调控的重要手段,是支持“三农”的有效工具。努力构建起与中国经济发展阶段相适应的工业反哺农业的财税政策机制,更成为现实迫切需要。基于此,文章在梳理支持“三农”的财税政策的基础上,对工业反哺农业的财税政策机制构建问题进行了探索研究。     

Survey of Recent Developments

Outgoing Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second-term record is creditable, measured against the targets he set himself in 2010, but deficient in key areas: economic reform, infrastructure investment, and anti-corruption. Indonesia's 2009–14 parliament has been active in economic policymaking, and will leave as its legacy a raft of protectionist legislation. Both presidential candidates, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, have appealed to nationalism in their campaigns, calling for Indonesia to assert its sovereignty and increase its self-sufficiency, but Jokowi's economic platform is more moderate and economically literate than Prabowo's. The incoming president will inherit an economy that continues to slow. Growth is now not expected to approach 6% until 2015 at the earliest. Having engineered a reduction in the current account deficit, Indonesian policymakers now face the more difficult problem of structural fiscal adjustment. Energy subsidies are the most immediate problem, but fiscal reform more generally will emerge as an overriding and unpleasant imperative for whoever wins the presidential election on 9 July. Unless difficult fiscal policy measures are taken, Indonesia will face major trade-offs between deficit control and investment in social programs and economic infrastructure. The new president will struggle to restrict the deficit to the cap of 3% of GDP: a balanced budget will likely not be feasible for several years. He will need to increase the ratio of revenue to GDP and eliminate fuel subsidies—through a more systematic approach than the infrequent price increases of the past. He will need to choose carefully between competing expenditure priorities, such as infrastructure and defence. The new president would also be well advised to tread cautiously in implementing the legal mandates he will inherit, and to work with parliament to avoid further and unwind current earmarking of public expenditure.     

东亚金融合作抵御金融危机的路径分析

本文从东亚金融合作抵御金融危机的路径入手,分析了"清迈倡议"下货币互换的本质及缺陷,讨论了区域流动性安排的新制度——东亚外汇储备库其实质是将各国间现存的双边货币互换协议网络进行统合,由区域协议网络转向单一协议。如果东亚外汇储备库最终能够建立起来,这将使得东亚金融合作进程完成对"清迈倡议"的超越,首先是CMI框架下危机救援机制得到扩展和强化,其次是新机制将成为迈向东亚货币合作的基石。     

Night watchman,extractive, or developmental states? Some evidence from late colonial south‐east Asia1

The article examines aspects of government policy in different parts of colonial south‐east Asia, and in nominally independent Siam (Thailand) in the first four decades of the twentieth century. The emphasis is on taxation and expenditure policies, and their implications for the development of infrastructure and also for the welfare of indigenous populations. Attention is also given to the impact of government regulation of both factor and product markets. On the basis of the empirical evidence, the article argues that the traditional view of the colonial state as a ‘night watchman’ was not applicable to most parts of south‐east Asia after 1900. Governments were increasingly involved in implementing policies that today would be considered developmental, including building infrastructure and improving access to secular education and modern health care for the indigenous populations. But given the resources that they had, or had the potential to mobilize, more could have been achieved.     

The growth path of the dynamic Asian economies

The rapid and sustained growth of several Asian economies led researchers, policymakers, and decision‐makers in the world of international business to search for a plausible Asian model of growth. Numerous explanations of the dynamic growth in Asia have been put forward, including the ‘new structuralist’ approach proposed by Lin (2012). This paper examines the various explanations of what these countries did to unleash their growth potential. Industrial policy and market intervention are two such explanations. While the dynamic Asian economies did not flout the Washington Consensus, they adapted it in different ways. The policies that they followed under the Beijing Consensus allowed them to proactively follow pro‐business policies. They also exploited the concepts of economic statism or state capitalism, which became an integral part of what became known as the ‘Asia model’.     

Municipal bonds as alternatives to PPPs: Facilitating direct municipal access to private capital

The advantages of using municipal bonds to finance urban infrastructure are becoming increasingly evident to policy makers in emerging economies, many of whom are making efforts to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets in their countries. Municipal bonds are sometimes viewed as a less expensive way of financing infrastructure than by public‐private partnerships (PPPs), or methods that maintain greater public control over projects and service provision. The objective of this article is to place current efforts by the South African government to promote municipal bond market development in an international context. This is done by briefly reviewing the advantages local governments experience by issuing municipal bonds to finance infrastructure; discussing some experiences of other countries in trying to accelerate the development of municipal bond markets; and reviewing the need and prospects for an active municipal debt market in South Africa. The article also examines the extent to which municipal bonds should be thought of as alternatives to PPPs in an emerging economy context.     

Seamless sustainable transport connectivity in Asia and the Pacific: prospects and challenges

In view of the ongoing financial and economic crisis originated during 2008?C09 and the possibility of a double dip recession in advanced economies, export-dependent economies of Asia and the Pacific need to rebalance its growth toward domestic and regional demand for sustainable growth of Asia and the world. Despite remarkable growth during the last decade, the region still faces extensive basic infrastructure needs such as transport, energy, telecommunications and water. Asia, therefore, needs to enhance its connectivity through developing transport infrastructure at the national and regional level to rebalance its growth through enhancing intraregional trade, to enhance economic integration and to meet basic infrastructure needs. Transport plays a significant role in enhancing connectivity within and across Asian economies. However, building massive transport infrastructure will have profound implications on environment and climate change at the national, regional and global levels. In this evolving scenario, Asia needs to build efficient, safe, affordable, timely, world-class, socially and environmentally sustainable and seamless transport connections within the region, and with the rest of the world, in order to be competitive and prosperous. This paper analyzes the major challenges in developing sustainable transport connectivity, by fostering regional cooperation toward a seamless Asia. The paper examines the needs and benefits of transport connectivity and financing requirement for 2010?C2020. It examines the impact of transport connectivity on environment and the prospects and challenges for developing seamless sustainable transport connectivity. Finally, the paper provides policy recommendations on what the region can do to meet these challenges.     

流动性冲击与中国金融改革

由于金融泡沫的重灾地欧美政府至2008年以来一直在推行大规模的货币救市政策,而各国金融体系资源配置能力在随之而来的周期下行过程中又凸显出不断萎缩的状态,因此"后危机时代"中国经济一定会面对全球流动性泛滥的挑战。如果中国不能看清我们抗衡危机所需要的结构调整及周期和政策协调的紧迫性,那么欧美国家所形成的金融危机给中国经济产生的负面影响将难以估量。为此,本文指出我们应对未来严峻挑战最关键的步骤就是要尽快发展和健全中国的金融体系,而不能像过去那样过度仰仗货币政策被动的对冲手段来缓解。本文提出了"企业家金融"、"关系型金融"、"供应链金融"、"财富金融"、"消费金融"、"政府金融"、"国家金融"和"全球化金融"等不同的改革与发展模式来适应中国经济转型各个环节对金融服务的紧迫要求。     

Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course?

Financial integration in East Asia is actively being pursued and will in due course lead to substantial mobility of capital between economies in the region. Plans for monetary cooperation as a prelude to monetary integration and ultimately monetary unification are also proposed. These plans often suggest that central banks should adopt some form of common exchange rate policy in the transition period towards full monetary union. This paper argues that this is a dangerous path in the context of highly integrated financial markets. An alternative approach is proposed where independent central banks coordinate their monetary policies through the adoption of common objectives and by building an appropriate institutional framework. When this coordination process has progressed to the point where interest rate developments are similar across the region, and if in the meantime the required institutional infrastructure has been build, the next step towards monetary unification can be taken among those central banks that so desire. The claim is that this transition path is likely to be robust and will limit the risk of currency crises.     

基于心理偏差的金融资产定价模式

金融资产定价一直以来都是金融学的焦点问题,传统的资产定价模型主要基于基本经济层面的影响因素分析,而没有考虑投资者的心理因素。近些年来,行为金融学越来越受到大家的关注,越来越多的研究者将注意力放到投资者的投资心理上,鉴于此,从投资者心理角度出发,研究了投资者在投资过程中认知、情绪、意志过程的偏差对资产定价的影响,并构建了基于心理偏差的金融资产定价理论模式。     

What information is needed for welfare-enhancing policies under international oligopoly?

In the framework of international Cournot oligopoly, we analyze welfare-enhancing policies when policymakers have only limited information on demand and cost structures. We show that even if policymakers have no idea about costs and demand, they can raise welfare by introducing a small production subsidy. If the government knows that demand is not very convex, a small tariff can be used to enhance welfare. With strategic complements, a small import reduction by an import quota deteriorates welfare while a small increase in the number of domestic firms improves welfare. In other cases, some more information is required to determine right policies.     

资产定价思想的发展

资产定价思想不仅是会计思想的核心内容,而且也是金融思想的重要方面,从20世纪50年代开始,经典金融学使用均衡定价和无套利定价这两种方法构建了一系列资产定价理论,促进了金融学不断向前发展。然而,经典的资产定价理论(如CAPM,APT等)的假设条件与资本市场的实际情况存在着一定的差距并在一定程度上影响了其解释能力,基于这一现实,研究者们扩展了理性投资者的假设从而创立了基于行为金融学的资产定价理论,行为金融资产定价理论通过应用心理学研究成果来修正行为人的信念和偏好形成方式,使资产定价理论的假设更符合行为人的实际决策过程。     

服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工:1992～2006

东亚因其迅速发展的国际生产网络而受到经济学界的广泛关注。本文从基础设施建设和服务联系成本的角度对东亚生产网络的成因展开研究。作者拓展了Limao和Venables的基础设施指数,并利用联合国贸易统计面板数据,在区分零部件和最终品贸易的情况下建立增广引力模型,对服务联系成本的影响进行细致梳理和量化分析。结果显示,基础设施的建设及服务联系成本的降低对东亚垂直分工体系的建立起到了巨大的促进作用。从促进出口的意义上看,基础设施建设有助于推动中国深入参与区域分工体系,并对未来恢复贸易增长产生积极效果。     

Xinjiang and China's security1

Central Asia occupies a growing role in Chinese security policy. However, an examination of China's Central Asian policies reveals that they are essentially external projections of Beijing's vital interest of internal security in neighboring Xinjiang. Accordingly, this paper examines Xinjiang's importance for China's overall security policies. Through this examination, it becomes clear that the Xinjiang problem very much resembles that of other discontented provinces within a multinational state with a continuing imperial vocation. China's problems in Xinjiang will continue, and have important repercussions for its domestic and foreign policies, and for other key issues like Taiwan.     

Public Policy Environment and Entrepreneurial Activities: Evidence from China

What determines the effectiveness of government entrepreneurship policies on the regional development of entrepreneurial activities in China? Using panel data analysis, this study develops a comprehensive framework that examines the effects of various factors, including government efficiency and government support for business, finance and technology, on facilitating the creation of new ventures. Based on provincial data collected between 2009 and 2014, we find that the level of infrastructure development, government incubators and venture capital‐guided funds have positive and significant effects on entrepreneurial activities. The findings of our study suggest that local government efficiency is a fundamental precondition for entrepreneurship policies to effectively boost the regional economy.     

Interdependencies among Asian bond markets

There is an ongoing intraregional attempt to develop bond markets in Asia. This is to some extent a result of the Asian financial crisis, which showed the need for well-functioning fixed income markets in the region. This paper analyzes the relationships among four Asian bond markets. Cointegration tests show that the markets exhibit strong long-term interdependencies. In addition, all markets show signs of short-run cross-dependencies in the mean. The correlations between the markets are time-varying and high, except for in short turbulent periods. The results indicate that a regional bond portfolio would allow for some level of risk diversification for investors and that policymakers need to pay attention to movements in different markets.     

国际间经贸合作与区域经济开发是未来东北亚区域经济发展的核心

21世纪是世界各个经济区域进行合作的一个良好开端,因为世界经济的全球化和一体化已趋于走向成熟,随之而来的区域经济合作更富有时代特征,并对世界经济与国际贸易产生了强烈影响。与世界其它地区相比,东北亚地区的区域经济合作发展相对起步较晚,发展速度相对缓慢。本文将从世界经济发展和区域经济开发的角度出发,分析了东北亚区域经济经贸合作的内容和形式,认为这个地区未来在资源开发与合作、工业及加工贸易合作、资金、劳务和科技合作等方面将成为区域经济发展的核心。     

China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to improve cross‐border infrastructure to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road (B&R) countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, will benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, South‐East Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the B&R region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping's current vision for the B&R, centered on improving transport infrastructure, is advantageous for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned.     

WATER DEMAND AND THE URBAN POOR: A STUDY OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING WATER CONSUMPTION AMONG HOUSHOLDS IN CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA

Water demand management is a key focus area for most water managers and even more so in developing countries since improved access to water is important to the poor. Different policies have been introduced to ensure a water management system th at cares for the poor, among them the Increasing Block Tariff (IBT) structure. Studies demonstrate that it is very important to know the shape of the demand curve when deciding on the IBT structure. This paper adds to the understanding of the factors that influence water consumption. The focus is on how water demand patterns vary with the level of income among urban dwellers. The results support the hypothesis that pricing is an ineffective measure to manage water consumption among the poor, while it is relatively more effective for the richest group. Therefore, redistribution using water pricing policy will hardly work.