金融发展对出口贸易规模与结构的影响

金融发展对一国专业化分工模式的选择及其对外贸易的开展具有深远的影响。利用中国大陆省级面板数据(2001—2005),本文基于一阶差分GMM估计技术检验了金融发展对对外出口规模及其出口商品结构的影响。在控制了人均实际资本存量、人均受教育年限等众多因素后,本文发现,金融发展规模与金融发展效率对对外出口规模及其制成品在出口总额中的份额皆有显著的正向影响,而金融发展效率对对外出口结构的影响较对对外出口规模的影响更加明显。     

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects: An Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand in the Commercial Building Sector

It is widely recognized that the adoption of energy saving innovations can induce an increase in the usage of the corresponding technologies and thus can possibly increase energy consumption. Among other concerns is that uncertainties regarding the magnitude of this “rebound effect” can deter policy makers from promoting energy efficiency. This paper analyzes the rebound effects of the adoption of energy efficient technologies in commercial buildings. Based upon a structural model of technology adoption and subsequent energy demand at the building level, the empirical results are that energy efficiency can reduce electricity use by about 35 % and natural gas consumption by about 50 %.     

Export Sector Dynamics and Domestic Growth: The Case of Colombia

Analyses of Colombian data have generally failed to confirm the hypothesis of export-led growth. This paper generates several measures of export diversification and structural change in exports, and argues that these measures are useful in assessing growth externalities generated by the export sector. In a simultaneous-equations framework, increases in the rate of export structural change are associated with accelerated Colombian GDP growth. Export diversification, by contrast, is not a source of economic growth, and the reduced-form relationship between aggregate lagged export growth and GDP growth is weak.     

贸易自由化对就业的影响——来自第三产业和个体私营企业的数据

大部分研究贸易对就业影响的中文文献关注的均是制造业行业,忽视了贸易对第三产业就业的影响,同时所采用的制造业行业数据中也没有包含私营和个体企业的就业人数,因此也忽略了贸易对私营和个体企业就业的影响。本文利用1998-2007年中国的省际分行业数据,采用联立方程组模型,研究了贸易自由化对第三产业就业和个体、私营企业就业的影响。研究结果显示,虽然服务业贸易占贸易和服务业产值的比重很小,对就业的直接影响不大,但是贸易自由化可以通过拉动经济增长有效促进第三产业就业,特别是对零售、仓储、建筑、居民服务、餐饮、住宿、电力煤气和水的供应这些行业的作用尤为明显。同时,贸易自由化程度的加深对制造业行业和第三产业的个体、私营性质企业的就业促进作用也很显著。     

技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口的影响及其对策

目前，西方发达国家实施的技术性贸易壁垒，给我国的出口贸易造成了巨大障碍，引发了许多贸易争端．如何突破这一障碍已成为亟待研究的课题。     

中国出口贸易利益测算与行业差异分析——基于出口收入指数的方法

本文以出口收入指数方法为基础构建出口收入份额指标,计算和分析了2001-2009年期间中国出口的相对贸易利益及其分行业状况。中国在世界平均出口收入指数中的相对份额虽然呈现出一定的上升趋势,但主要是在低技术行业依靠出口规模而获取贸易利益,在高技术行业中国获得的市场份额和贸易利益都很少。面板数据计量检验显示,中国制造业各行业出口收入份额与技术投入、资本和劳动要素投入比例呈现较弱的正相关关系,与外资进入以及参与产品内分工的程度呈现较显著的正相关关系。中国欲摆脱以代工方式加入全球价值链而赚取低廉代工费的现实处境,须致力于物质资本和人力资本积累,提高自主创新能力,从而形成以技术为主导的竞争优势。     

中国地区工资水平差异的影响因素分析

本文运用模块数据和空间计量学的方法考察了中国改革开放以来影响地区工资水平及地区工资非均衡的各种政策体制因素和经济因素。实证结果表明,中国的地区工资水平及其差异既受制度变迁的影响又受市场机制的作用,具有典型的转型特征。具体而言,工资体制、对外开放、所有制改革、地方保护、教育水平和资本投入等因素对地区工资水平及其差异都有不同程度的影响作用。     

Export variety and the economic performance of countries

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent.

Low Pay in the UK: The Case for a Three Sector Comparative Approach

This paper represents a first attempt to examine empirically the comparative extensiveness of low pay in the third sector against the theoretical backdrop of both the generic labour market literature and the newly emerging specialist third sector literature. It shows that the third sector occupies an intermediate position between relatively high concentrations of low pay in the private sector and low concentrations in the public sector. These differences do not emerge simply because the categories of vulnerable workers identified in the generic labour market literature are less likely to be found in the third sector. Nor do they reflect differences in sectoral industry and occupation composition. Theoretical explanations for these differences are to be found in the third sector literature.     

An Analysis of a Rules-based Approach to Disciplining Export Credits in Agriculture

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the comparative static effects of rules-based disciplines for government supported export credit arrangements. The arrangements provide traders in the country offering the guarantees more favourable borrowing conditions. This may provide an advantage relative to rival exporters since the supported trader may offer better financial terms to importers. Rules that discipline implicit interest rate subsidies are appropriate when an importing country does not face liquidity constraints when borrowing. However, these rules may not be appropriate with liquidity constraints because of the potential for additionality and benefits for all exporting countries. Rules on benchmarks for insurance premiums are always appropriate because insurance subsidies unambiguously have the potential to distort markets.     

中国商品出口贸易发展研究--基于主要贸易伙伴经济发展的视角

危机后世界经济恢复缓慢,外部需求持续低迷,中国商品出口贸易发展增速逐年放缓,为了深入探讨危机后中国商品出口贸易的发展,文章在分析主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展的周期波动与中国商品出口贸易发展之间关系的基础上,建立了包含经济发展周期波动因素的面板数据模型,定量地研究了主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展的影响效应。研究结果表明：主要贸易伙伴国（地区）的经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展具有重要的影响,但在经济发展的不同周期阶段,其影响效应具有非对称性,经济发展处于繁荣阶段的拉动效应大于衰退阶段。最后分别从积极参与国际经济事务、促进产业结构转型升级等三个方面,对后危机时期中国商品出口贸易的发展提出了相应的建议。     

The role of agricultural cooperatives in sustaining the wheat diversity and productivity: the case of southern Italy

We hypothesize that institutions such as agricultural cooperatives influence regional levels of variety diversity through input supply, processing or marketing functions. This diversity can also affect yield, a partial measure of crop productivity. We test these hypotheses with data from southern Italy, a mega-diversity spot and centre of diversity for durum wheat. Cooperatives in the southern regions of Italy process farmers’ harvests of durum wheat into bread, label it, and sell it locally. In this relatively marginalized region of the country, cooperatives enable farmers to capture more of the value of the final product and reduce marketing costs. To test the hypothesis, we apply a two-stage estimation approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data analysis. Findings suggest that the density of cooperatives in a region is associated with greater spatial diversity in wheat varieties grown, and that, over a 14-year period, this diversity positively affected crop yields.     

人力资本外流与经济增长--对人才外流损失的计量分析

本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,引入人力资本和移民净流出量两个变量,采用比较静态的分析方法,计量分析平衡增长路径上人才外流的收入损失.由于外流人才富含人力资本,根据给定参数计算,即使少量的高素质人才外流,也会带来巨大的经济损失.如果不考虑人力资本的正外部经济效应和国家教育投资损失,仅考虑劳动力和人力资本等生产要素流失所带来的经济损失,根据2002年的数据估算,我国当年的国内生产总值因人才外流就损失约92.2亿元.     

后社会主义国家的福利部门改革：九条原则

Ⅰ.福利部门现状 在全世界范围内人们都已开始着手改革福利部门,或至少已开始讨论应如何进行这项改革①,另一方面,改变的进程在任何地方都是困难重重的.     

国际经济形势新变化对我国出口贸易的影响与应对措施

2007年下半年以来,世界宏观经济形势发生了明显变化,我国作为贸易大国出现了出口额大幅减少、失业人数增加等问题,造成了企业资产缩水、经营危机等困难。我国出口贸易的发展、贸易出口的目的地、出口商品的结构、出口贸易环境都受到了很大的影响。本文通过分析国际经济形势变化对我国出口贸易的影响,提出一些应对措施。     

影响我国农民收入因素的计量分析

文章基于1986年-2009年时间序列数据,利用主成分分析的方法,在对影响农民收入因素分类的基础上,选取了影响农民收入的17个代表性指标,在损失较少信息的前提下,将之提取为3个主成分,并实证检验了农民收入与这三个主成分之间的协整关系。研究发现：农村劳动力转移、国家财政支农支出、农村物质资本投资及农民受教育程度等因素对农民增收有较大的正向作用;农业产业结构及三大产业结构变化对农民增收有较大的负向作用。最后,基于得出的实证结论,提出促进我国农民增收的财税政策建议。     

中国外贸顺差的人口因素影响——基于动态GMM法的实证分析

本文运用Arellano和Bond首创的动态面板数据方法考察了人口年龄结构和人口流动对中国贸易收支的影响。结果表明,差分广义矩法估计所采用的工具变量表现良好,差分方程得到的残差服从AR(1)过程,过度识别条件成立。人口抚育负担的降低、人口的跨地区跨行业流动对贸易顺差有着积极显著的影响。然而,由于劳动力转移方式的差异,不同时间区段的子样本回归结果之间不尽相同。     

An index of political support for decentralization: the Spanish case

This paper presents a method to make measurable what was not: the discourses of politicians regarding decentralization. For this purpose, we develop a “matrix of arguments” and a set of indexes, and apply them to provide a snapshot of the politicians’ views on the “General Law of Budgetary Stability”, a landmark for the process of decentralization in Spain.     

基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系.实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系.美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题.