转移支付能提升产业集聚水平吗?

本文应用Riou(2006)的研究框架,分析转移支付对产业集聚水平的影响,发现转移支付有利于提高产业集聚水平,但地区间竞争会降低转移支付效率;同时转移支付存在一个最优规模。利用1995～2008年中国省级面板数据进行实证检验,研究表明,中国的转移支付水平与产业集聚之间呈现"倒U形"关系,转移支付和地区竞争对产业集聚的影响存在地区性差异,东部地区的转移支付效率相对较高。因此,需要综合利用政策手段,提高中西部地区的产业集聚水平。     

Innovation and Co-location

Abstract

Here we attempt to advance the understanding of the impact of co-locative factors on regional innovation performance. The objectives are to answer what role co-location plays in explaining differences in regional innovation performance and what methodological improvements can compensate for the shortcomings of existing econometric analyses. The study is based on register data from the Business Register of Statistics Norway and the patent data from the Norwegian Patent Office for the period 1995–2003, aggregated to 161 labour market regions of Norway. A Bayesian spatial autoregressive (heteroscedastic) estimation procedure is applied. The results confirm the role of various co-locative factors in the spatial distribution of innovation.     

Agglomeration and Trade with Input–Output Linkages and Capital Mobility

Abstract

This paper proposes a nesting ‘New Trade, New Economic Geography’ model in which agglomeration is driven by input–output linkages among firms, trade in goods and capital mobility. The New Economic Geography sub-model exhibits the same positive and dynamic properties as a wide class of models based on other agglomeration mechanisms. Its normative implications are nuanced: equity and efficiency do not necessarily conflict. When input–output linkages are strong, agglomeration might Pareto-dominate dispersion because agglomeration lowers producer prices. When vertical linkages are weak, the market is biased in favour of agglomeration if the planer has a strong aversion to inequalities.

RÉSUMÉ

Accumulation et commerce avec intégration amont-aval et mobilité du capital.

Cet article décrit un modèle, qui a donné naissance au modèle commercial de Flam et Helpman (1987), et de Martin et Rogers (1995) et à un modèle original à la Krugman « Nouvelle Géographie Economique » (1991). L'accumulation se produit par l'intégration amont-aval des sociétés entre elles et par la mobilité du capital. L'auteur étudie les conséquences positives puis normatives du modèle. Dans le domaine des conséquences positives, le modèle NGE montre les mêmes propriétés dynamiques que les autres modèles fondés sur d'autres mécanismes d'accumulation (migration du travail, accumulation de capital humain). Donc, ce modèle est bien adapté pour étudier les questions de localisation des industries, du commerce des biens et de la mobilité du capital. En ce qui concerne les conséquences normatives, lorsque l'intégration amont- aval est forte, l'accumulation peut l'emporter sur la dispersion de Pareto, parce que l'accumulation conduit à une diminution des prix du producteur: l'efficacité et la valeur n'entrent pas forcément en conflit dans ce modèle. Quand l'intégration verticale est faible, le marché est orienté en faveur de l'accumulation si le décideur montre une grande aversion aux inégalités.

RESUMEN

Aglomeración y comercio con enlaces de entrada–salida y movilidad de capital

En este artículo expongo un modelo que atrapa el modelo comercial de Flam y Helpman (1987), de Martin y Rogers (1995) y de un modelo original según la teoría la ‘Nueva Geografía Económica’ de Krugman (1991). La aglomeración está impulsada por enlaces de entrada–salida entre las sociedades y por la movilidad de capital. Aquí analizo las implicaciones positivas y normativas del modelo. En términos de implicaciones positivas, el modelo NEG expone las mismas propiedades dinámicas como una amplia clase de modelos basados en otros mecanismos de aglomeración (migración laboral, acumulación de capital humano). De este modo, el modelo encaja bien para estudiar cuestiones en cuanto a la ubicación de la industria, el comercio de mercancías y la movilidad de capital. Con respecto a las implicaciones normativas, cuando son sólidos los enlaces de entrada–salida, la aglomeración podría dominar la dispersión en el diagrama de Pareto debido a que la aglomeración hace disminuir los precios de los productores: en este modelo la eficiencia y la equidad no necesariamente están en conflicto. Cuando los enlaces verticales son débiles, el mercado es sesgado a favor de la aglomeración si el planificador tiene una fuerte aversión a las desigualdades.     

Footloose Entrepreneurs,Taxes and Subsidies

Abstract

This paper challenges the robustness of policy propositions of the New Economic Geography. Simply altering the temporal framework of the Footloose Entrepreneur model implies that the system can exhibit periodic cycles, chaotic orbits or agglomeration. Minute changes in a tax or subsidy rate can have dramatic, unpredictable and/or irreversible repercussions on the spatial location of manufacturing industry and on social welfare. The complexity of the dynamics is likely to be exacerbated by competition between governments employing subsidies to attract or retain entrepreneurs. The possibility of complex dynamical behaviour is not eliminated by assuming that entrepreneurs are ‘rational’.     

Agglomeration,Agriculture, and the Perspective of the Periphery

Abstract

This paper aims at pulling everything related to ‘agriculture’ or the ‘periphery’ a little more into the focus of research. We try to achieve this through surveying the existing theoretical and empirical literature in the field of NEG (New Economic Geography) in order to elaborate its linkages to immobile factors such as land, land-intensive productive activities, agriculture, rural areas, and the periphery. The main features of the broad variety of NEG models are reviewed with a special focus on the theme of agglomeration, which turns out to be vital for rural areas. All of these contributions are then commented on, with the aim of suggesting and discussing some future lines of research in the field.

Agglomération, agriculture, et la perspective de la périphérie

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication s'efforce de placer davantage tout ce qui concerne ‘l'agriculture’ ou la ‘périphérie’ sous l'optique de la recherche. Pour ceci, nous nous efforçons d'examiner de près les ouvrages théoriques et empiriques existants dans le domaine du NEG (New Economic Geography), afin d'en examiner les rapports avec des facteurs immuables comme la terre, les activités de production à utilisation intensive de la terre, l'agriculture, les zones rurales, et la périphérie. On se penche sur les principales caractéristiques du grand nombre de modèles NEG, en mettant tout particulièrement l'accent sur le thème de l'agglomération, qui s'avère jouer un rôle d'importance primordiale pour les zones rurales. On présente ensuite des commentaires sur toutes ces contributions dans le but de proposer certaines filières de recherche futures dans ce domaine, et d'en discuter.

Aglomeración, agricultura y la perspectiva de la periferia

RÉSUMÉ Este trabajo tiene como objetivo poner todo lo relacionado con la ‘agricultura’ o la ‘periferia’ un poco más en el foco de investigación. Intentamos hacerlo a través de una inspección de la bibliografía teórica y empírica existente en el campo NEG (New Economic Geography), con objeto de elaborar sus vínculos con factores inmóviles, tales como el terreno, actividades productivas que requieren terreno, agricultura, áreas rurales y la periferia. Las principales características de la amplia variedad de modelos NEG se revisan con un enfoque especial en el tema de la aglomeración, que resulta tener una importancia vital para las áreas rurales. Seguidamente, todas estas contribuciones se comentan con el propósito de sugerir y discutir líneas futuras de investigación en el campo.

     

The Price Effect on Spatial Structure: Revisiting the New Economic Geography Model

Abstract

This paper adds a factor of production, land, to the standard core-periphery model of the New Economic Geography to analyse the effect of land rent on the price index and spatial structure. The result indicates that when production of the manufacturing sector has high dependence on land, and high demand elasticity for differentiated goods, the price index of the core region is higher than that of the periphery, and that the price index could rise with a degree of agglomeration. Meanwhile, the market forces cannot generate a core-periphery structure, which indicates the significance of the price effect on spatial structure.     

Informal Sector and Manufacturing Location: In Search of the Missing Links

Abstract

Although the informal sector is very large and unevenly distributed within developing countries, its relative size and location have not been investigated from the perspective of location models. This paper builds a modified Core–Periphery model where formal and informal firms compete in consumer markets. The model suggests that in a peripheral region, where informal goods constitute a competitive alternative to formal goods, a larger critical mass of workers is needed for the formal sector to become profitable. Informal sector competitiveness, however, also increases formal firms' sensitivity to home market effects. Thus, indirectly, a competitive informal sector can foster formal manufacturing agglomeration.

RÉSUMÉ Bien que le secteur informel soit très étendu et distribué de façon irrégulière dans les pays en voie de développement, son envergure et sa distribution relatives n'ont fait l'objet d'aucune étude sur le plan de modèles de localisation. La présente communication crée un modèle « centre–périphérie » modifié, dans lequel des entreprises officielles et non officielles rivalisent sur des marchés de consommation. D'après ce modèle, dans une zone périphérique où les produits informels constituent une alternative à des produits officiels, une masse critique de travailleurs plus importante est nécessaire afin que le secteur officiel devienne rentable. Toutefois, la compétitivité du secteur informel accro??t également la sensibilité des entreprises officielles à des effets sur le marché interne. En conséquence, un secteur informel compétitif peut, indirectement, encourager une agglomération de fabrication officielle.

EXTRACTO Aunque el sector informal es muy amplio y está irregularmente distribuido dentro de los países en desarrollo, su tamaño relativo y localización no se han investigado desde la perspectiva de modelos de localización. Este estudio construye un modelo modificado de centro–periferia donde empresas formales e informales compiten en mercados de consumo. El modelo sugiere que, en una región periférica donde las mercancías informales constituyen una alternativa competitiva a las mercancías formales, el sector formal necesita una mayor masa crítica de trabajadores para ser rentable. No obstante, la competitividad del sector informal también aumenta la sensibilidad de las empresas formales a los efectos del mercado doméstico. Por lo tanto, indirectamente, un sector informal competitivo puede fomentar la aglomeración de la industria manufacturera formal.

     

Raising the bar (4)

This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 11(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper deals with common factors and spatial dependence in the error term specification of a production function model. The second paper sets forth a New Economic Geography (NEG) model with production activities that vary in their complexity, so as to analyse the impact on specialization patterns across different regions. The third paper measures the efficiency of local public investments using a relatively unknown econometric technique in which the time span over which the variables in the regression equation are measured is increased by one time period every run. The fourth paper adopts a conditional quantile regression approach to determine the impact of people employed in informal jobs on the wage distribution in Colombia and five of its regions. Finally, the last paper proposes and tests two new Bayesian variable selection approaches for spatial econometric models.     

Heckscher–Ohlin and agglomeration

We argue that embedding endowment-based comparative advantage within a standard NEG framework helps solve the indeterminacy due to multiple equilibria and the ambiguity concerning the relation between integration and specialisation (monotonicity versus non-monotonicity) typical of the NEG literature. In particular, we show that if endowments are in the FPE set, the process of trade integration involves an overshooting of international specialisation and relative factor prices with respect to the free trade level determined by factor abundance. In contrast, if endowments are outside the FPE set, then, even in the presence of agglomeration forces, specialisation and factor prices are monotonically related to trade costs, as implied by the standard trade theory. We argue that the model can shed light on some puzzling stylised facts.     

Economic crisis in the European periphery: An assessment of EMU membership and home policy effects based on the Greek experience

In this paper we examine the evidence on the impacts on the Greece economy of enhanced transfer assistance from the EMU as well as that of the domestic policies of the Greek government. A simple macroeconomic model is constructed to incorporate the issues related to the formation of the economic and financial crisis in Greece, and to analyze the impacts of Greek government's domestic policies. The model's solution is employed to highlight the outcomes that we believe could be related to EMU membership and Greek government policies after assuming membership. Our finding is that intervention by the Greek government either worsened the harmful impacts of the transfers, or altered the outcomes in a deleterious fashion; the policies which were put in place were of a nature leading unavoidably to a severe economic crisis and eventual bankruptcy.     

上海市建筑业产业集聚效应分析

本文采用空间基尼系数、区位熵等测算产业集聚程度的工具,通过对2003年至2013年上海市各个区、县的建筑业信息进行分析,说明了上海市建筑业存在空间差异性,建筑业对于中心城区的重要性明显高于郊区,在2003至2013年间存在产业集聚现象,产业集聚的方向是从郊区转向中心城区.     

演化经济地理学视角下区域经济韧性研究进展与展望

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,外部环境复杂多变,面对各种不确定性冲击与扰动,如何有效应对外界风险,保持区域经济系统稳定持续发展,已成为当前亟待解决的突出现实问题。而韧性理念从动态和发展的角度为区域经济系统适应环境变化提供了新思路、新方向。本文从区域经济韧性的概念内涵、测度与评估、影响因素及演化过程等方面对国内外相关文献进行梳理,总结了其主要贡献及不足,从“专业化与多样化”“路径依赖与路径创造”“锁定与解锁”“协同演化”等方面阐述了演化经济地理学视角下区域经济韧性理论分析框架,并对未来研究方向进行了思考与展望,以期为后续区域经济韧性研究提供参考。     

推动适应高质量发展要求的区域经济布局研究

贯彻落实习近平总书记关于推动形成优势互补高质量发展的区域经济布局的重要精神,立足新时代中国经济高质量发展的战略目标和要求,中国区域协调发展取得的主要成效有:区域间基础设施通达程度显著改善,基本公共服务均等化水平不断提高,分工协作格局逐步形成,区域间发展差距得到有效控制,协同互动的机制模式不断丰富。深刻分析区域经济布局,现阶段存在的突出问题有:区域开发缺乏空间有效管控,城市群都市圈发展不平衡,老少边穷等特殊类型区域发展滞后,乡村地区衰落难以有效控制。推动适应高质量发展要求的区域经济布局的重点任务是:明确谋划新时代中国区域经济“1+4+6+7”战略布局及重点任务,即强化提升“一带一路”建设的战略引领地位,精准明确四大地区板块差异化发展重点,分类发挥六大战略引领区示范带动功能,构建完善七大特殊类型地区振兴发展的扶持体系。     

区域智力资本与区域经济发展

本文通过评价2006年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的区域智力资本水平来探索其对区域经济发展的作用.研究发现,区域智力资本与区域经济发展具有较强的正相关性,并且区域智力资本每提高1%GDP则提高0.815%,区域智力资本的构成要素,即区域人力资本、区域关系资本、区域结构资本和区域创新资本也都与区域经济发展有着显著的正相关关系,但它们在对经济发展的贡献度上存在一定的差异性.     

我国人力资本的地区性趋同假说及实证分析

本文证明了我国经济增长倒U形趋同理论的一个必要条件，即我国人力资本的地区性趋同假定。首先在设定人力资本投资率一致的条件下，本文基于物质资本的边际收益递减规律，提出了人力资本地区性趋同假定，证明了相对趋同与绝对趋同的一致性。然后通过计算我国改革开放以后各省区的人力资本数据验证了这一假定，并给出了预测结果。最后提出了增加人力资本，缩小人力资本地区差异的政策建议。     

Missing Pieces in Ecosystem Restoration: The Case of the Florida Everglades

The largest ecosystem restoration in the world-a $7.8 billion rescue package-is now beginning in the Florida Everglades. This paper examines both the economic impact of the restoration itself and those pieces that are 'missing' from the official project analysis; namely, increased tourism, urban construction, in-migration, and changing agricultural patterns. These pieces comprise a variety of scenarios that are tested for a 45 year planning period with an augmented input-output model derived from a regional SAM. The new output and employment generated by the 'missing pieces', which are small relative to the vast economic base of the region, do represent a considerable increase over the annual growth, especially by the year 2045. We conclude with a discussion of ways in which a growing regional economy might be reconciled with ecosystem restoration.     

Transport costs, intermediate goods, and localized growth

This paper presents a dynamic, two-regional, general equilibrium model in which interregional production and trade patterns are endogenously determined. Localized growth stems from the geographical concentration of an industrial sector exhibiting permanent productivity increases. Geographical concentration is a result of the interaction between local market size and local competition in the differentiated input industry. Regional factor endowment with an immobile factor is decisive for the long-run specialization, trade and growth patterns between the regions if large endowment differences prevail. With equal-sized regions, multiple equilibria exist. Furthermore, we argue that integration might lead to increasing regional concentration of production and innovation.     

中国区域经济差距的变迁及政策调整建议

改革开放以来,中国区域经济差距经历了高—低—高—低的演变过程,区域差距明显缩小。东西差距虽呈现明显的下降趋势,但发展差距依然较大,且出现了区域分化等新问题。南北差距虽呈现扩大趋势,但仍低于东西差距。中国区域经济发展不平衡仍将长期表现为东西差距问题。因此,要全面落实区域协调发展战略,促进区域协调发展向更高水平和更高质量迈进,必须对现有区域政策进行合理调整。