Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis

The rapid growth of biofuels production, particularly in the United States, the EU, and Brazil, has had important implications for the global livestock industry—both by raising the cost of feed grains and oilseeds and by forcing onto the market a large supply of biofuel by‐products, most of which end up in livestock feed rations. This article investigates the impact of an expanding biofuels industry on the mix and location of global livestock production. Surprisingly, we find that growth in the U.S. and EU biofuels industries results in larger absolute reductions in livestock production overseas than in those regions, due to the international transmission of grains prices which is offset locally by the lower cost of by‐products. We also find that nonruminant production is cut more than ruminant livestock, because it is less able to use biofuel by‐products in its feed rations. Implementing biofuel mandates increases cropland area, a large portion of which is estimated to come from reduced grazing lands. The biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and increase imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils, while they increase their exports of processed feed materials. In sum, biofuel mandates have important consequences for livestock as well as crops, with net effects influenced by the important role of by‐products in substituting for feedstuffs.     

On the Use of Price Ratio in Aggregate Supply Response: Some Evidence from the Poultry Industry

The specification of supply/demand relationships has received considerable attention in agricultural economics (Heien 1977). Economic theory has helped provide a basis for the specification of such relationships, one of its contributions being the proposition that prices should be interpreted only in relative terms. This has had a profound influence on model building in agricultural economics, leading a number of researchers to avoid the use of absolute prices in economic analysis. For this reason, numerous market models of the agricultural economy use price ratios as explanatory variables (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien, 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz; Morzuck et al.; Houck and Gallagher; Wilson et al.); these examples suggest that the use of such ratios is fairly widespread in econometric modeling of the crop and livestock sectors. One of the best examples of price ratios is the "feed cost to price" ratio commonly used in the analysis of livestock supply response. Indeed, since feed cost constitutes a major part of the total production cost in livestock activities, the "feed cost to price" ratio is often considered a proxy for profitability. For this reason, data on such ratios are regularly published for various livestock activities (e.g., USD A). Also, "feed cost to price" ratios are often employed in the specification of models of livestock supply response, (e.g., Chen; Chen et al.; Heien 1976; Gerra; Kulshreshtha and Wilson; Rahn; Talpaz). However, not all models of aggregate supply response follow this approach. For example, Freebairn and Rausser, and Arzac and Wilkinson, use prices as separate variables rather than in ratio forms in their models. In particular, they do not employ price ratios in their livestock and crop supply equations. The existence of these different approaches raises questions about the appropriateness of the use of price ratios in the modeling of aggregate supply.     

TIME AND RECURSIVENESS IN LIVESTOCK FEEDING TRIALS*

In livestock feeding experiments the problem of recursiveness arises because the quantity of feed consumed by an animal is a function of its past history of feeding. The problem is most acute where experiments are designed to analyse sub ad lib feeding. The analysis of such experiments encounters two important problems. The first is that the actual quantity of feed consumed is an endogenous variable and is not directly under the control of the experimenter or the livestock producer. The second problem is the mathematical complexity of the relationships involved. A solution is suggested as a quasi reduced-form model.     

Does population pressure induce farm intensification? Empirical evidence from Tigrai Region,Ethiopia

The scarcity of land for crop and livestock production is critical in countries with growing populations. The idea that increasing population density leads to natural resource depletion and economic failure, as predicted by Malthus, or rather to farm intensification, as hypothesized by Boserup, motivates this research. This article examines how high population pressure in northern Ethiopia influences smallholders’ farm intensification by applying recursive estimation with a control function approach using data from 518 randomly selected farmers. Although our empirical results are more in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis, the findings also reveal that both Malthusian and Boserupian forces coexist. Consistent with Malthus theory, high population pressure is found to be associated with small farm size and herd size. Population pressure affected both technology use (breed cow, stall feeding, and modern cattle feed) and output supply (milk yield, milk income, and straw output). As predicted by Boserup's theory, the use of modern input and output supply initially increases with increasing population pressure but declines again when population densities pass a critical threshold (800 persons/km²), supporting Malthus’ hypothesis. The estimation results also revealed that both milk and straw supply responded positively to prices. Free grazing and stall feeding are found to be complementary activities. Likewise, crop farm income and off‐farm job have a nonlinear relation with population pressure, implying that both initially increase and then decrease with rising population pressure.     

LAND TENURE IN THE CYPRESS PINE AREAS OF NORTH-WESTERN NEW SOUTH WALES

In New South Wales there are one million acres of land bearing cypress pine and held under lease from the government. This land is suitable for the joint production of timber and livestock or for timber production alone. Alternatively, the timber can be harvested to provide capital for property development. Farm management plans have, however, been constrained by the land tenure policy which aims to promote both closer settlement and timber production. In this paper the opportunity costs of the current tenure system are evaluated against the freehold situation. The conditions which favour either specialized timber production or the joint production of timber and livestock are examined. Finally, the cost of achieving a timber production target is examined in terms of loss of income to the individual grazier and the nation.     

Estimating feed utilisation matrices using a cost function approach

In this paper a multiple-output cost function framework is proposed to construct national feed balances or feed utilisation matrices (FUMs). The framework is applied to the Belgian compound feed industry. For estimation purposes a Symmetrie Generalised McFadden (SGM) cost function is selected. The cost function is estimated using readily available time-series data for the period 1962–88. Unlike previous studies based on duality theory, this study exploits the properties of nonjointness in animal feed production to establish a complete FUM. The allocation of feed ingredients among different livestock categories as well as the composition of various compound feeds are identified. Also own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for feed ingredients by type of livestock are reported.     

Adverse Shocks in Agriculture: The Assessment and Management of Downside Risk

This paper investigates the assessment and effects of adverse shocks on agricultural production, with an application to corn yield. Adverse shocks are assessed by the probability of facing low yields, i.e. by the probability of being exposed to downside risk. Defined in terms of willingness‐to‐pay to eliminate risk, the ex‐ante cost of facing adverse events is evaluated under prospect theory. Prospect theory is relevant in the evaluation of adverse shocks as it identifies a role for both loss aversion and oversensitivity to low probability events. The analysis is applied to experimental data on corn yield in the US Corn Belt. Estimates show how the distribution of corn yield is affected by management and technology. Implications for the cost of adverse shocks are examined. The results show how management and technology can reduce exposure to adverse shocks and lower the cost of risk in agriculture.     

Evaluating Input Standards for Non‐Point Pollution Control under Firm Heterogeneity

The efficacy and cost of input standards for reducing nitrate pollution from New Zealand dairy production are evaluated. In contrast to previous studies, firm heterogeneity is explicitly considered through the novel integration of efficient techniques for the calibration and decomposition of large optimisation models. Nitrogen fertiliser application should not be targeted by policy given its minor role in determining emissions. In contrast, livestock intensity is an appropriate base for regulation given its strong correlation with pollutant load. Abatement cost increases as stocking rate declines, but this can be offset at low levels of regulation through utilising slack feed resources to improve per‐cow milk production. Both uniform and differentiated input standards based on livestock intensity achieve substantial decreases in pollutant load at moderate cost. However, because of disparity in the slopes of abatement cost curves across firms, a differentiated policy is more cost‐effective at the levels of regulation required to achieve key societal goals for improved water quality.     

Access to markets,weather risk,and livestock production decisions: Evidence from Ethiopia

Despite several studies showing the effect of access to markets and weather conditions on crop production, we know quite little on whether and how livestock production systems respond to variation in weather risk and access to markets. In this paper, we study whether and how livestock production responds to (access to) markets and varying weather risk. We also explore whether such responses vary across livelihood zones and livestock production systems. We study these research questions using households’ livestock production, ownership, and marketing decisions of households in Ethiopia. We find that households living close to markets are more likely to engage in market-oriented livestock production and use modern livestock inputs. We also find that households exposed to more unpredictable weather are less likely to engage in livestock production for markets, rather they are more likely to engage in livestock production for precautionary savings and insurance. Furthermore, greater rainfall uncertainty influences livestock portfolio allocation toward those which can be easily liquidated while also discouraging investment in modern livestock inputs. However, these responses and patterns vary across livelihood zones and production systems; most of these stylized responses and impacts are more pronounced and significant in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, where livestock herding remains a dominant source of livelihood. Those households relying only on livestock production seem more sensitive and responsive to weather risk and weather shocks. The heterogeneity in responses and impacts of weather risk among farming systems and livelihoods highlights the need for more tailored livestock sector policies and interventions.     

中国非洲猪瘟疫情防控政策及优化策略分析

[目的]非洲猪瘟疫情致使生猪生产严重下滑和市场剧烈波动,国家应对疫情出台系列防控政策,猪瘟疫情得到有效控制,但是目前鲜有研究介绍非洲猪瘟控制的政策措施,文章研究非洲猪瘟疫情防控政策及分析优化策略,对于确保生猪产业平稳有序发展、更好防控动物疫情具有重要现实意义。[方法]系统梳理非洲猪瘟疫情防控政策及演变历程,发掘政策实施面临的突出问题,研提政策调整优化思路。[结果]非洲猪瘟疫情历经初发期、蔓延期、高发期和稳定期,不同时期政策目标分别为加强生猪移动监管、加大疫情防控力度、完善疫情防控政策和加快生猪产能恢复。非洲猪瘟疫情防控面临申报检疫环节养殖主体配合度不高阻碍防疫政策有效开展,调运环节多部门参与、跨区域调运使检疫监督存在漏洞,防疫环节基层防疫队伍不健全,复产增养环节基层落实困难等突出问题。[结论]建议进一步合理优化政策内容,有效落实国家防控计划;强化全产业链疫情监测,健全生猪市场预警机制;完善基层防疫队伍,加强基层防疫体系建设;完善财政激励政策,夯实生猪供给安全保障基础。     

The ‘Direct Costs’of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain

The ‘direct costs’attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost‐benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.     

青岛市畜禽粪便排放量与肥料化利用潜力分析

在确定畜禽粪便年排放量和农田所需养分量估算方法的基础上,根据2011~2014年青岛市畜禽养殖量和农作物产量数据,估算青岛市畜禽粪便产生量及其主要养分含量和农田所需养分量,并从肥料化利用角度分析畜禽粪便资源化利用潜力及畜禽粪便中氮、磷养分的贡献率。结果表明,如果畜禽粪便能够完全实现肥料化利用,则畜禽粪便中养分的化肥替代率达60%以上,可见畜禽粪便肥料化利用潜力巨大;从青岛市各区的氮、磷养分贡献率可以看出,城阳区存在氮和磷污染风险,崂山区和莱西市存在磷污染风险。     

病死畜禽无害化处理PPP项目回报机制研究

［目的］可行性缺口补助是目前我国病死畜禽无害化处理利用PPP项目的主要回报机制,识别可行性缺口补助的主要影响因素,对于优化项目成本结构、提高财政支持效率、促进项目顺利实施具有重要的意义。［方法］文章运用生命周期成本分析法,通过对我国东南部地区的A县进行典型案例分析,使用财务净现值为社会资本投资决策的成本收益指标,构建该县病死畜禽无害化处理PPP项目的全生命周期成本模型,选取产品数量及价格、工资成本、基准收益率和合作期限等指标,分别分析其变动对项目可行性缺口补贴的影响。［结果］受畜牧产业结构调整和非洲猪瘟等重大动物疫病暴发因素影响,A县项目实际处理病死畜禽数量的变化对可行性缺口补助影响最大,有机肥价格、基准收益率、工资成本次之,合作期限的变动影响较小。［结论］适应区域产业发展布局调整趋势,因地制宜确定建设规模,设置可行性缺口补助,是保证PPP项目顺利建设和运营、切实发挥效用的关键。     

Market-based grazing land transfers and customary institutions in the management of rangelands: Two case studies on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Beginning in the early 1990’s, grazing lands once held in common were contracted to individual households in the rangeland regions of China. The resulting fragmentation of rangelands has led to ecological and social problems. As China seeks to address intractable poverty and rangeland degradation, attention has turned to rental, or transfer, of contracted grazing land as a market-based approach to re-aggregating grazing land into larger units that support economies of scale. However, given that many pastoral regions still maintain community customary institutions, what the relationship between market mechanisms and local customary institutions should be in rangeland management needs further analysis. This paper applies comparative case studies of two types of relationships between market mechanisms and customary institutions: (1) market mechanisms that replace customary institutions in the case of Axi village, and (2) market mechanisms that are embedded within customary institutions in Xiareer village. This allows contrast of the impacts of differing approaches on livelihoods, livestock production, and wealth differentiation among pastoral households. We found that there is a higher level of livestock mortality, lower livestock productivity, and higher livestock production cost in Axi Village compared to Xiareer Village. In addition, household asset levels are higher and there is less income differentiation in Xiareer Village. It is concluded that embedding market mechanisms within customary institutions has had notable benefits for the herders of Xiareer Village, because it is a better fit to the coupled pastoral social-ecological system. Based on these findings, we argue that in pastoral communities where the rangeland transfer system for contracted grazing land has not yet been implemented, it is critical to reconsider China’s current policy approach to pay greater attention to the innovative management systems being developed in local regions. Instead of considering market-based approaches as oppositional to traditional institutions, options that derive from the interaction of market-based and customary institutions should be considered.     

Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi

This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security.     

遥感技术在青海刚察县草畜平衡研究中的应用

［目的］刚察县草地资源丰富,是青海省环湖重点牧区之一,文章利用遥感技术对刚察县草地生物量进行了遥感估算,并在此基础上分析其载畜平衡状况,以期为刚察县草地资源利用、生态环境保护和区域经济可持续发展提供参考依据。［方法］利用2016—2018年刚察县的遥感数据、地面样方调查数据进行生物量估算,并利用牧业统计数据计算载畜平衡指标,在此基础上分析其载畜平衡状况。［结果］（1）指数函数可以较好地模拟NDVI与生物量之间的相关关系,指数方程为：y=60137e093x（R2=066）。（2）2015年植被生物量较2010年有所增加,而2018年平均生物量较2010年持平,这一特征主要与气候和降水条件有关,2018年降水量较少、气候较干旱。2015年冬春草场生物量较2010年基本持平,2018年较2010年有下浮下降; 2015年和2018年夏秋草场比2010年均有小幅提高。（3）基于遥感估算的草地生物量结果和刚察县的补饲情况进行了草畜平衡情况分析,结果显示,2010年超载率为2308%,为超载; 2011年超载率为511%,2015—2017年分别为602%、690%、929%,均为草畜平衡。［结论］草畜平衡政策实施后,刚察县在减少草原可利用面积后,通过补饲减缓了天然草场的载畜压力,天然草场基本达到草畜平衡,有利于该区域草地生态环境的恢复和保护。     

REGIONAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND FEED FREIGHT ASSISTANCE*

This paper reports on a livestock feed-grain study, in which linear programming is used to develop the optimum pattern of livestock production in Canada. A model is developed, based on data for 1962–63, and related to the subsidization of transportation costs of feed-grains from the Prairie Provinces to British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes. The article indicates that savings in the total cost of livestock production would result from removal of the feed-freight subsidy, although substantially greater savings could occur through reorganizing the regional production patterns for Canadian livestock.
LA PRODUCTION RÉGION ALE DU BÉTAIL ET L'AIDE AU TRANSPORT DES ALIMENTS DU BÉTAIL - Cet article expose une etude faite sur le grain de provendes où un programme linéaire est employé afin de développer le meilleur modèle de production du bétail au Canada. Un modèle est développé en se basant sur les données de 1962–63, et en se rapportant à la subvention du coût de transport du grain de les provinces des Prairies à la Colombie Britannique, l'Ontario, le Québec et les Maritimes. En supprimant cette subvention, l'étude indique que des économies résulteraient dans le coût total de la production du bétail. Néanmoins une plus grande économie surviendrait avec la reorganisation de la production régionale du bétail canadien.     

Characterization of urban and peri-urban agroecosystems in three West African cities

Systems of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) take many forms in terms of integration of different activities, production intensities and production orientations. The present study is aimed at a refined characterization of the diversity in terms of production orientation, resource endowments and production strategies of the different types of farm households involved in urban and peri-urban agriculture in three West African cities. A total of 318 UPA households were surveyed using a standardized semi-structured questionnaire in the West African cities Kano (Nigeria), Bobo Dioulasso (Burkina Faso) and Sikasso (Mali). Through categorical principal component analysis and two-step cluster analysis, six distinct household clusters were identified based on resource endowments and the degree of integration of vegetable, field crop and animal production. Three clusters appeared in all three cities; the remaining three were specific for one of the cities each and comprised (i) commercial gardening plus field crop–livestock (cGCL) keeping, (ii) commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC), (iii) commercial gardening plus semi-commercial field cropping (cGscC), (iv) commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL) keeping, (v) commercial field cropping (cC) and (vi) commercial gardening (cG). Production constraints were similar across the cities, that is, high costs of inputs, water shortages and lack of fertilizers in the garden and field crop production systems, while feeding constraints and animal diseases were the main constraints in livestock production. UPA remains an important economic activity to livelihood strategy for urban and peri-urban farmers. Appropriate policies should be formulated that efficiently target the site-specific constraints for improving the quality and sustainability of UPA production systems.     

新疆棉花生产要素成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势研究基于465户农户问卷调查数据

目的 由于生产要素的价格稳步攀升,新疆棉花生产成本过高,加上新疆棉花销售回归市场,价格不稳定,导致棉花生产风险增大,棉农种棉积极性降低。文章通过对新疆棉花成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势的研究,为棉农生产决策和政府政策提供参考。方法 在对新疆棉农问卷调查的基础上,研究棉花种植规模变动下生产要素的规模报酬。在二次函数的基础上寻找生产要素投入成本较低,收益最大的植棉规模,运用多元线性回归模型分析棉花生产要素投入对植棉成本的影响,以及不同植棉规模下生产要素对棉花产量增加的贡献程度。结果 新疆农户棉花生产的单位面积成本和收益随着户均种植规模的变化呈二次曲线变化;单位面积成本随着种植规模扩大,先下降,超过一定规模后上升,成本最低植棉规模为3.56hm²;单位面积收益随着种植规模扩大,先增加,超过一定规模后下降,收益最高的植棉规模为4.67~5.33hm²。研究发现,户均种植规模在2.5~4.5hm²时,土地费用、机械作业费、水电费、雇工费用投入对棉花产量的贡献较大,规模在7~10hm²时,化肥投入对棉花产量的贡献较大;农药、地膜、滴灌带等物质投入未体现规模趋势。结论 新疆农户棉花生产的成本和收益随着种植规模不同而变化的趋势符合规模经济原理,存在最优种植规模;在不同种植规模下,各种要素投入对新疆农户棉花产量的影响差异明显。因此,要引导棉农合理投入生产要素,降低成本,增加收益。