Regional energy efficiency and its determinants in China during 2001–2010: a slacks-based measure and spatial econometric analysis

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are largely driven by fossil fuels. To reduce CO₂ emissions in China, it is important to determine influential factors of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a slacks-based measure window analysis approach to evaluate regional dynamic energy efficiency during 2001–2010, and then explores energy efficiency determinants by considering spatial effects, which is conducted based on spatial econometric models. The empirical results show that there exist evident spatial correlations between regional energy efficiencies in China. We find that, there exist evident disparities in cumulative effects of energy efficiency among the eastern, central and western areas. Interestingly, significant energy efficiency spatial spillovers can be clearly found between regions within the western area and across the eastern and western areas. It is found that, energy structure, energy price, railway transportation development and R&D stock are significant at national level. However, energy structure and railway transportation development are insignificant in the central and western areas, while energy price and R&D stock are insignificant in the eastern and central areas, respectively. Industrial structure and urbanization level are found to be insignificant at national level, but industrial structure is significant in the eastern and western areas, and urbanization level is significant in the central and western areas. Surprisingly, industrial structure and urbanization level are found to have positive impacts on energy efficiency in the western area. In addition to regional disparities and local conditions, policies making should take efficiency spatial spillovers into consideration. Several interesting policy implications are achieved.     

基于百度地图实时路况的昆明市道路拥堵研究

基于百度地图实时路况的调查资料,应用ArcGIS中全局空间自相关分析模块和局部空间聚集性模块方法,对昆明市交通拥堵进行时空分布特征研究。结果显示全局聚集分析中昆明市交通拥堵点呈现聚集性分布,局部空间聚集性分析中昆明市交通拥堵点局部聚集性强,分布区域集中在商业、客运中心和旅游休闲区域,空间上临近区域拥堵情况类似,土地利用性质对周围的交通存在显著的影响。拥堵的时间规律特征主要受人们活动规律的影响。     

TRAFFIC LIGHTS: WEAPONS OF MASS DISTRACTION,DANGER AND DELAY

Since my 2006 article in Economic Affairs proposing traffic system reform, there has been a growing interest in the subject. Trials in deregulation have produced the results that students of the subject predicted – congestion‐free roads and sociable interaction between road‐users.     

公共交通中的数据结构算法与实现分析

近年来,我国城镇化速度不断加快,城市人口不断增多,交通拥堵问题日益突出。公交是城市交通的主力军,通过这一主力军来解决城市交通拥堵问题是必由之路,因此公交数据结构算法与实现问题就显得极其重要。现以GIS为基础,公交数据结构模型为出发点,具体论述了公交数据结构算法与实现的思路,其中包括影响公交数据结构算法与实现的因素,人性化的公交数据结构算法与实现,公交数据结构算法与实现的基本步骤。希望能对缓解城市交通压力问题提供一些借鉴。     

Sharing diseconomy: impact of the subsidy war of ride-sharing companies on urban congestion

ABSTRACT

As a typical example of the sharing economy, ride-sharing, in theory, can improve market efficiency and enhance the welfare of consumers and service suppliers. However, negative externalities resulted from ride-sharing, such as quasi-public goods, are often overlooked. In this paper, we used AutoNavi’s big data to measure traffic congestion in cities, and built DID, PSM-DID and DDD models to analyse the impact of the subsidy war among ride-sharing companies on the traffic congestion in Shanghai. The subsidy war led to an increase in the congestion index of Shanghai by 0.068–0.077, which was equivalent to an increase in transit time by 3.51%–5.53%. Excessive subsidies offered by ride-sharing companies to vie for market share will eventually distort the market. As a result, increased social costs will ultimately harm the well-being of the entire society, leading to diseconomy.     

Multivariate time series analysis of traffic congestion measures in urban areas as they relate to socioeconomic indicators

Traffic congestion has significant adverse implications for the environment and economy. Many state and local transportation agencies have implemented traffic congestion management practices to alleviate the negative implications of urban traffic. One of the major drawbacks of traffic congestion management practices is that they do not account for socio-demographic and economic factors, which have a significant impact on traffic congestion. Understanding the influence of these factors is very crucial because they can help to communicate the system's performance management and target setting. Only a few studies analyzed the relationship between traffic conditions (e.g., traffic demand and vehicular traveling speed) with a limited number of socio-economic factors. Moreover, most of the existing models ignore the temporal and spatial autocorrelations of traffic congestion, which may significantly limit their reliability and effectiveness. This study is developed with the purpose of identifying the most relevant external factors that affect traffic congestion performance measures. To conduct the research, we have used three urban congestion performance measures collected from 51 metropolitan areas across the U.S. over a four-year period, 2013–2016: travel time index, planning time index, and congested hours. We have used multivariate time series models to account for the complex inter-relationships among the performance measures and socioeconomic factors to identify the most influential factors affecting system performance. We have finally developed predictive models to estimate the traffic congestion measures using these factors. The results of rigorous modeling show that the factors influencing the traffic congestion measures are monthly average daily traffic (MADT), the number of employed, rental vacancy rate, building permits, fuel price index, and Economic Conditions Index (ECI). The prediction models indicated that the effects of these factors are statistically significant and could be used to forecast future trends in three performance measures accurately.     

人口规模与城市轨道交通的治堵效应

利用高德地图发布的道路交通拥堵延时指数大数据,结合断点回归方法,对全国省会城市2015年10月至2018年9月新开通的40多条轨道交通线路进行了分析。结果显示:轨道交通虽能缓解城市道路交通的拥堵状况,但效果并不明显,存在着异质性影响;常住人口在600万至900万人的城市新增轨道交通的治堵效应显著,不足600万人及超过900万人的城市,治堵效应不显著。进一步研究发现,造成治堵效应异质性及总体不显著的原因在于,地方政府兴建轨道交通的决策机制造成了站点布局、通车里程与出行总需求之间的错配。     

2000年以来中部地区城镇化的空间特征与影响因素

近年来中部地区的城镇化在我国城镇化格局中发挥着越来越重要的作用。基于2000年、2005年和2008年地级单元截面数据的分析显示,中部地区城镇化的整体水平偏低,但增长速度较快。利用区域不平衡指数与分解Lorenz曲线,结果显示空间上区域内部差异明显,时序演进则表现为趋同趋势,高速增长区域逐渐向区域内部转移。回归分析表明经济发展水平、第三产业比重对城镇化进程的推动作用较明显,区位条件和外商直接投资的作用近年来有所增强;不同年份间各影响因素的作用效果也有所不同。     

Raising the bar (9)

ABSTRACT

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 13(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper develops an economic geography model with trade costs in all sectors and different shares of unskilled labour in all locations. The second paper translates an economic geography model into a dynamic spatial econometric model and then estimates the unknown parameters to test for congestion spillover effects among Chinese cities. The following paper also investigates spillover effects, but of sovereign and banking risks across countries. The fourth paper empirically examines if a higher market potential results in higher average productivity and lower productivity dispersion of Italian retailers. The fifth paper demonstrates that modelling more than one spatial lag in the independent variables, using different specifications of the spatial weight matrix, can be used as a tool to correct for an omitted variable bias. The final paper develops a test for the existence of non-parametric non-linearities in a linear spatial econometric model.     

杭州市交通拥堵治理对策研究

随着工业化、城市化进程的加快,越来越多的人口和资源涌入城市。城市居住人口密度不断加大,出行越来越拥挤,城市交通拥堵已经成为困扰国内外大城市发展的一个普遍性难题。杭州地处长三角的腹地,近年来随着经济和旅游业的快速发展,交通拥堵问题已经成为制约杭城发展的一个难题。因此,当前亟需结合杭州市的城市特点,借鉴发达国家城市治理交通拥堵的经验,提出解决杭州市交通拥堵问题的策略和方法。     

城市公共交通与城市发展的适应性研究

随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市机动车数量也急剧上升,我国能源储备不足与能源需求增加之间的矛盾日益凸显。此外,一系列城市交通问题也阻碍了城市的发展,如交通拥堵问题、大气污染等等。本文将从城市公共交通与城市发展的关系、适应性内涵、适应性评价指标等方面分别论述,初探城市公共交通与城市发展的适应性,为客观评价我国城市公共交通的适应性提供借鉴,为提升我国城市公共交通的服务水平提供参考。     

关于城市道路规划中存在的问题

随着城市化进程的加快,城市道路规划和建设的问题日益凸显出来了,本文指出了城市道路规划中存在的点滴问题:城市道路规划的随意性;城市道路规划重视道路交通功能、空间功能规划,轻视道路环境功能规划;城市道路规划缺乏严肃性,道路交通拥挤现象层出不穷;城市道路规划中没有体现"以民为本"的原则。这些问题的出现对我们的城市建设和发展产生了一定的影响。     

Competing Networks,Spatial and Industrial Concentration in the US Airline Industry

Abstract

The paper uses Gini decomposition analysis to evaluate changes in the spatial distribution and industry shares of total US air traffic, as well as analysing the decomposition components for individual airlines and airports for the period 1990–2002. The paper develops explicit relationships between two of the main decomposition schemes used in the income inequality literature and shows the insights that such analysis may provide for evaluation and examination of air transport networks and traffic distributions. A multi-dimensional Gini and its decomposition are derived using an adjustment method derived from the relationship between the two Gini decomposition schemes.     

公共服务供给、空间溢出与新型城镇化发展质量

本文利用省级面板数据实证研究了公共服务供给对新型城镇化发展质量的作用机理及其空间效应。研究结果表明,公共服务供给和新型城镇化发展质量存在显著的空间相关性,且公共服务供给对新型城镇化发展质量的空间溢出效应日趋增强。教育具有显著的正向空间溢出作用,交通基础设施的空间溢出效应为负但并不显著,医疗具有较为明显的空间抑制作用。进一步进行区域异质性分析发现,公共服务供给对新型城镇化的直接效应和空间效应在三大地区存在明显的差异性。因此,不同区域要基于公共服务供给及其空间溢出效应的特点制定新型城镇化高质量发展政策措施,包括优化公共交通基础设施服务功能、提高人力资源配置效率、改善区域性医疗卫生条件等。     

卫星城相对中心城市的优化规划研究——以北京市为例

在我国城市化高速推进的今天,很多特大及超大城市都在无节制地发展,过高的密度、摊大饼的模式等使城市交通拥挤、环境污染及住房紧张等问题日益突出,在此背景下,卫星城的规划逐渐被放到重要的议事日程。但是,虽然国外有不少卫星城成功规划的经验,可至今仍缺乏系统的优化理论支撑,本文即从理论推证、计量分析等方面力求突破,如卫星城相对中心城市的数量选择及合理规模等均有确切结论。但愿这些推证能对我国各大城市的卫星城规划具有一定的参考价值。     

斯德哥尔摩内城交通拥挤收费政策述评

在回顾斯德哥尔摩内城地区"交通拥挤收费"政策出台背景的基础上,从收费时间、收费区域、收费标准、收费对象、付费方式等方面,概括了其交通拥挤收费政策的主要内容;从交通流量、出行时间、出行方式等方面分析了交通拥挤收费政策的治理效果;对斯德哥尔摩"交通拥挤收费"政策的探索历程进行了政策评判。认为拥挤收费政策带有强烈的政治色彩,是政党联盟与政治妥协的产物;拥挤收费政策是一套囊括诸多措施、相互间配合严密的一揽子方案;拥挤收费政策采取了政府引导、公众参与的审慎推进策略;拥挤收费政策构建了科学的信息沟通、反馈机制以及决策支持系统;拥挤收费政策虽取得较好的效果,但仍然可能存在一系列负面效应;拥挤收费政策的运行主体多元,相互间展开了有序分工与密切协作。     

城市化质量的空间特征及其门槛效应研究

通过重构城市化质量评价指标体系,利用熵值法、泰尔指数、变异系数、探索性空间数据分析等方法测度了2007-2016年我国各省市自治区城市化质量的综合水平及其空间特征,基于能源消费结构转型视角构建了面板门槛模型,以检验环境规制对城市化质量的门槛效应。研究显示:我国各省市城市化质量总体上逐步提高,但省域差异呈现出"四降四升"的双W型波动变化趋势。城市化质量省际间存在空间集聚分布格局,但异质性有所增强。冷热点空间格局表现出"东热西冷"的分布规律,环境规制对城市化质量具有显著的双门槛效应,人力资本和经济发展水平对城市化质量具有驱动作用,而能源消耗和收入差距则抑制城市化质量的提升。     

Is transportation improving urbanization in China?

This study applies the rolling-window causality test to analyze the interaction between transportation infrastructure and urbanization in China. Our results obviously support search-matching theory in that transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization in sub-sample periods. Urbanization does not Granger cause transportation infrastructure development except for the 1977–1980 period, when urbanization exerted negative effects on transportation infrastructure. The transportation structure is inadequate, and rational allocation of transportation resources is needed to improve the level of urbanization. This means that transportation improves urbanization due to government investment and regional integration. Development of transportation infrastructure has been rapid, which improved urbanization during the Great Cultural Revolution period. Urbanization urgently needs to keep up with the development of traffic infrastructure construction by adding to traffic investment. Transportation infrastructure requires whole planning, a unified layout, and rational adjustment of the transportation structure.     

城市化与能源消耗间关系实证研究

通过利用2000—2009年我国的省级面板数据,建立时间和空间双固定效应的面板空间杜宾模型,发现我国存在一条U形的城市化能耗库兹涅茨曲线,该曲线的转折点出现在城市化率约为24%的阶段。现阶段我国的城市化水平已经处在该曲线的右侧部分,表明如果我国的城市化率在今后仍不断提高的话,由城市化所导致的能耗将迅速增长。同时还发现城市化在我国能耗增长中的贡献比重较大,但对于在2003年出现的我国能耗迅速增加的拐点,从城市化的角度找不到解释。最后提出如果今后我国城市化率进一步提高,由能耗迅速增加所导致的城市发展的离心力达到一定程度,将会对我国的城市化格局产生重要的影响。     

Timing Equilibria in an Urban Model with Congestion

All spatial urban models with congestion assume that the departure (arrival) time of commutes is exogenously determined and assume that travel speed at a given time and location depends upon the traffic density at that point in time and space. This paper presents a framework that encompasses such models, but allows workers to choose the time at which they leave home (arrive at work). This paper then proves that in general only one equilibrium exists for urban models with traditional congestion technology: a commuting pattern in which commuting is continuous and the rush hour never ends, which is unrepresentative of traffic patterns anywhere. This paper concludes by discussing alternative general equilibrium urban models with congestion that may have more realistic equilibria.