The Inventory–Sales Relationship in the Market for New Single-Family Homes

Time series methods are applied to study monthly inventory and sales dynamics in the U.S. market for new single-family homes. The inventory measure used is the inventory of unsold, new single-family homes, regardless of the stage of construction. Stylized facts regarding inventory, sales, the inventory–sales ratio and the implied series of speculative housing starts are produced. Implications for structural models of housing supply and the relationship of inventory investment in this market to economy-wide inventory investment are considered. Finally, innovation accounting methods are applied to a structural VAR to study the responses of inventories and sales to permanent and transitory shocks.     

Inventory investment and output volatility

This paper reports the results of a detailed examination of the hypothesis that improved inventory management and production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth. Our innovations are to look at the data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous studies, to exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity to obtain clearer identification of this hypothesis, and to provide a complete decomposition of the change in GDP volatility. At the aggregate level, changes in inventory behavior can account directly for almost half of the total reduction in GDP volatility. However, reduced volatility of sales and lower covariance among the output of major sectors in the economy each account for more than one-fourth of the reduction in GDP volatility. Improved inventory management appears to be associated loosely with lower volatility at the industry level.     

Markup pricing in petroleum refining:: A multiproduct framework

This paper describes a structural model of markup pricing under joint production with quasi-fixed inputs of capital, labor, and inventories. The price–cost markups are functions of the inverse price elasticity of demand, an industry average conjectural variation elasticity, and the inventory to sales ratio. Our empirical findings suggest significant markups over marginal cost that differ considerably by product. This study also estimates the elasticities of markups with respect to supply and demand shocks.     

Managers’ view of a new inventory paradigm

The significance of inventories in business operations have never been denied. The actual role of inventories, however, is changing over time, as required by the business environment. This paper provides empirical background to the thesis, which says that the role of inventories in the “Golden Era” of inventory research, which was in the 1950s, was significantly different from that of today because of fundamental changes in business. This development requires new approaches in research as well.After a summary of the antecedents, the results of a survey are analysed, and they support the above thesis. The lack of difference between the inventory performance measured by the turnover rate of those companies, whose managers accept and those who deny the birth of the new paradigm calls attention to the need for the elaboration of a more complex inventory performance measurement.     

An alternative estimate of real inventory change for national economic accounts

In 1996, the Bureau of Economic Analysis adopted the Fisher index (a particular superlative index) for the national income and product accounts of the United States (NIPAs). This change was, on balance, a major improvement in the US national accounts, for it greatly improved the measurement of rates of growth of real economic aggregates. However, the change posed a special problem for inventories: the Fisher index is not suitable for time series that, like inventory change, exhibit changes in sign. The Fisher quantity relative is the geometric mean of Laspeyres and Paasche quantity relatives. When some detailed components of inventory change are negative, the Laspeyres and Paasche can easily differ in sign, in which case the Fisher index is undefined. In the NIPAs, this problem is avoided by measuring real-inventory change as the period-to-period change in inventory stocks. However, attempts to approximate real GDP by two-stage aggregation, combining this measure of inventory change and other major GDP subaggregates, show that the NIPA measures of real inventory change and of real GDP are inconsistent. This paper attempts to resolve the problem by investigating an alternative measure of inventory change.The alternative measure of inventory change considered is the difference between a Fisher index of inventory acquisitions and a Fisher index of inventory disposals. The consistency of this measure with real GDP is first examined analytically. It is shown that, for inventory changes likely to be observed, the approximation error in the aggregation of GDP components due to measuring inventory change as the difference between Fisher indexes of inventory acquisitions and disposals should be small. Second, the consistency of the alternative measure with real GDP is tested over the period 1977–98. The tests compare the actual approximation errors in the two-stage aggregation of GDP using inventory change based on the two methods: the present NIPA methodology and the alternative, Fisher difference method. These tests provide further support for the alternative method of estimating real inventory change.     

Sense-making and management in business networks — some observations, considerations, and a research agenda

Business networks are complex webs of interdependent exchange relationships within which companies and individual managers operate. They consist of manifold actors, complex interactions, as well as organizational structures and resource transformation processes. Business managers cannot just capitulate vis-à-vis this complexity. Making sense of complex business networks helps managers to understand their own position, as well as their available options for change. Similarly, research in the area of sense-making and management in business networks may help us understand how managers cope with the contextual complexity in business networks, and how managers construct the forms in which this complexity appears. This paper identifies six major research themes that need to be taken up in the future with regard to sense-making and management in business networks, and discusses some methodological issues to advance our knowledge in this area.     

An analysis of the inventory behavior in a q-theoretic framework

This paper develops a generalized q-model in which a monopolist with perfect foresight holds inventories. This model permits an analysis of the dynamics of inventories in the presence of various types of deterministic demand and supply shocks. The results suggest that if only positive inventories are allowed, inventories are more successful in smoothing expected upward than downward variations in demand. If unfilled orders are permitted, then production smoothing accompanies any type of demand shock, but inventories are generally negative. The estimation of the linear quadratic model on data generated using the two versions of the generalized q-model shows that incentives to smooth production appear only when the firm is allowed to have negative inventories.     

German inventory to sales ratios 1971-2005—An empirical analysis of business practice

The purpose of this study is to test empirically for the first time the general hypothesis that inventory to sales ratios have decreased over time in the German economy. Although inventory reduction has been a prevalent topic in the production and operations management literature, there is a lack of empirically confirmed answers to questions. They are as follows: Have inventories in German firms decreased overall during the past decades? What sectors of German industry are leading (lagging behind) inventory reduction? Has inventory reduction developed differently for raw materials, work-in-process, or finished goods? In which periods was marginal inventory reduction greatest? To the best of our knowledge, this empirical study is the first to broadly investigate inventory development from the 1970s until the present for a major European economy, Germany, and will provide the first answers to the research questions stated above using aggregate industry-level data provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank. We show that inventory levels decreased overall in many sectors of German industry. This reduction was mainly marked for raw materials and finished goods, particularly for the second-half of the time frame investigated.     

Commodity price inflation, retail pass-through and market power

When commodity prices rise, wholesalers and retailers of products derived from basic commodities respond by passing along at least a portion of the price increase to consumers. In this paper we examine whether firms respond differently to positive commodity price shocks than to negative commodity price shocks; that is, whether commodity price volatility alters market power. We exploit recent volatility in food commodity prices over the period 2007-2010 to investigate how commodity price shocks translate into market power in two different vertically-structured food product industries: potatoes and fluid milk. For potatoes, we find both wholesale and retail market power decreases (increases) during periods of rising (falling) commodity prices. Moreover, price-cost margins widen a substantially greater degree in response to negative shocks than margins narrow in response to positive shocks, indicating that commodity price volatility increases market power. For fluid milk, we find that market power likewise declines during periods of rising commodity prices; however, market power does not significantly change during periods of falling commodity prices, suggesting that commodity price volatility decreases market power.     

An organizational perspective on inventory control: Theory and a case study

Inventory control is a well-covered area in literature. Nowadays, many concepts and techniques are available for effectively controlling inventories. Eminent examples are stochastic models to determine order quantities, techniques for forecasting demand and different kinds of ABC analysis. Remarkably enough, the theoretical backgrounds of these concepts and techniques show a great deal of similarity: they all stem from the field of operations management and operations research. Despite the value of the available concepts, such a one-sided approach has its limitations in practice. In this article it is argued that it is important to take a broader view when dealing with practical inventory control problems. First of all, an organizational perspective on inventory control is developed. The main idea behind this perspective is the importance of the organizational context of inventories. This means that in addition to the traditional points for attention, such as order quantities and replenishment strategies, other aspects need attention as well. They are, for example, the allocation of responsibilities and authorities regarding inventory management, the quality of inventory information and the relevant decision-making processes. These contextual factors as well as the traditional factors are mapped out and integrated into a framework to be used in solving practical inventory control problems. One of the main features of the framework is that it is useful in both analyzing and redesigning an inventory situation. Secondly, this article describes the results of a case study regarding the application of the organizational perspective to a practical inventory control problem. The central issue of the case study is the spare parts inventory of a missionary aviation organization in Africa. The case study shows that the organizational perspective on inventory control is very helpful in dealing with inventory control problems. It is illustrated that taking into account the organizational context of inventories, especially the responsibilities and authorities of the persons concerned, is a necessity to accurately understand inventory control problems. In addition, it is illustrated that the organizational perspective leads to a more appropriate redesign.     

Macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment: a multi-country study

The paper is a new element in a series of studies analyzing macroeconomic inventory behavior by use of multi-country data. In this paper, seven hypotheses are tested with positive result. These hypotheses include subjects like relations of inventories with growth and with some other macroeconomic indicators of the use of GDP and the long-term tendencies of global inventory formations. Multivariate statistical analysis is used for evaluation.     

Comparison of benefits of radio frequency identification: Implications for business strategic performance in the U.S. and Korean retailers

This study explores a model to compare the benefits of RFID technology on supply chain management by focusing on retail industry. A path model was estimated to examine structural relationships among technological infrastructure, RFID benefits, and business strategic performance in the U.S. (n = 70) and Korean samples (n = 87). Result showed that technological infrastructure was required to more improve inventory management, store operation and demand management, leading to business strategic performance. Especially, data system automation was perceived as a prerequisite for improving inventory management for both countries. Hardware/software application was significantly related to the RFID benefit of inventory management for U.S. retailers, whereas, it was related to the benefits of efficient store operation and demand management for Korean retailers. Business strategic performance was significantly determined by RFID benefit factors (e.g., inventory management and demand management) for U.S. retailers and Korean retailers. The managerial implication for business to business strategic performance in the U.S. and Korean retail industries was discussed from a retailer's perspective.     

Dynamic Pricing,Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines

This paper uses a unique U.S. airlines panel data set to study empirically the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon. I estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears. I find that the price increases as the inventory decreases, and decreases as there is less time to sell. Consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment, demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales.     

从“库存变化”看“后危机”时期宏观经济走势

库存变化反映了市场需求预期和企业生产状况,也反映了宏观经济景气的变化。2008年下半年以来,世界各国在金融危机的影响下和经济周期的调整中完成了＂去库存化＂。伴随着经济回暖,欧美等贸易伙伴大国均处于不同程度回补库存阶段,其补库存过程对稳定我国出口市场、经济恢复产生不同程度的影响。目前我国库存随着经济稳步回升、需求回暖处于存货周期的小扩张阶段,这意味需求进一步回暖,宏观经济稳步回升态势进一步显现。     

Manufacturers shift the inventory carrying function

This article examines channelwide inventory management, and determines if manufacturers, as channel leaders, do force their policies onto subordinate channel members. Specifically, the ability of manufacturers to use their power to push the high cost of carrying inventories off onto other channel members is considered.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

Inventory investment and production in Europe during the “Great Recession”: Is there a pattern?

The paper examines the nexus between inventory investment and the change in aggregate production during the “Great Recession” of 2008/09 for 29 European countries. A fairly uniform pattern emerges. Inventory investment is positively correlated with changes in production and follows the latter with a time-lag of two to three quarters. Very few countries (Austria, Greece, Spain and Switzerland) diverge from the typical pattern. This might hint to problems with respect to data quality.     

Residential Construction Volatility: A Seasonal and Cyclical Inventory Adjustment Analysis

The seasonality of inventories and the seasonality and cyclicality of sales of new single-family residences by speculative builders may be formally introduced into a partial production adjustment inventory model of housing starts. The theoretical results include variables that imply an interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. A specification error bias in the estimation of the partial adjustment coefficient is evaluated for models that exclude the interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. Stabilization policy is more complex when cyclical instability changes season to season. In this view, justification is found for a seasonal stabilization policy in housing.     

An economic production and remanufacturing model with learning effects

Managing inventory in reverse logistics has been receiving much attention in recent years. One inventory problem that has been of interest to researchers is the production and remanufacturing model, where used items are collected and remanufactured to satisfy customer demand. The available models in the literature do not discuss the learning effects in production and remanufacturing processes. This may not be true in industries where labour costs and learning costs are expensive. By modelling these learning effects, management may use established learning models to better utilize capacity, manage inventories, and coordinate production and distribution throughout the chain.This paper extends the production, remanufacture, and waste disposal model by assuming learning to occur in both production and remanufacturing processes. However, this paper also assumes that improvements due to learning require capital investment. Mathematical models are developed, numerical examples are provided, and results are discussed.     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.