Using high, low, open, and closing prices to estimate the effects of cash settlement on futures prices

Due to dwindling commercial interest in the feeder cattle futures contract, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decided to replace the contract's physical delivery provision with a cash settlement provision, arguing that cash settlement would help reduce price volatility and attracts more commercial interests. In this article, we apply stochastic volatility models to investigate the CME conjecture, using four different estimators based on opening, high, low, and closing prices, respectively. With each estimator, we find that the volatility of the feeder cattle futures price decreases after the implementation of cash settlement. We conclude that the change in the contract specification enhances price discovery and the contract's hedging performance.     

Bank deregulation and corporate risk

Although research shows that competitive banks spur corporate growth, less is known about the impact of bank competition on corporate risk. Using a sample of more than 70,000 firm-year observations covering the period from 1975 through 1994, we find that deregulation that intensified competition among banks materially reduced corporate risk, especially among firms that rely heavily on bank finance. We find that competition-enhancing bank deregulation reduced corporate volatility by easing credit constraints when firms experience adverse shocks and reducing the procyclicality of borrowing.     

Which market dominates the price discovery in currency futures? The case of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange

This paper examines the relative contributions to the price discovery process of EUR/USD futures traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). We find that the CME contributes 66.4%, 92.7%, and 97.3% to the price discovery process according to information share metrics suggested by Harris, McInish, and Wood (2002), Hasbrouck (1995), and Putninš (2013), respectively. The intraday information share metrics also show that the CME dominates the price discovery in most time periods. We attribute the CME's price discovery leadership to its higher trading activity, lower transaction costs, and higher volatility as compared to the ICE.     

Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks.     

Volatility in the foreign currency futures market

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreignexchange trading with transaction data on futures contractsfrom the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London InternationalFinancial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European andU.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. tradinghours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during Europeantrading hours. While the disclosure of private information throughtrading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we concludethat the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomicnews announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday dataalso reveals that volatility increases at times that coincidewith the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.     

Information transmission in informationally linked markets: Evidence from US and Chinese commodity futures markets

This paper investigates information transmission and price discovery in informationally linked markets within the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and information share frameworks. Based on both synchronous and non-synchronous trading information from Chinese futures/spot markets, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and CME Globex futures markets for copper and soybeans, we show that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between US and Chinese markets, with a stronger effect from US to Chinese markets than the other way around. Additionally, the NYMEX and CBOT play a more important role than the CME Globex in the flow of information from US to Chinese markets. Moreover, we find that Chinese copper market adjusts more quickly than the NYMEX copper market to correct the disparity between both markets. However, the converse is true in the case of soybeans. Finally, our results highlight the remarkable role of Chinese futures markets in the price formation process, though NYMEX and CBOT futures markets are the main driving force in price discovery.     

Leverage,balance-sheet size and wholesale funding

Positive co-movements in bank leverage and assets are associated with leverage procyclicality. As wholesale funding allows banks to quickly adjust leverage, banks with wholesale funding are expected to exhibit higher leverage procyclicality. Using Canadian data, we analyze (i) if leverage procyclicality exists and its dependence on wholesale funding, (ii) market factors associated with this procyclicality, and (iii) if banking-sector leverage procyclicality forecasts market volatility. The findings suggest that procyclicality exists and that its degree positively depends on use of wholesale funding. Furthermore, funding-market liquidity matters for this procyclicality. Finally, banking-sector leverage procyclicality can forecast volatility in the equity market.     

Race to the center: competition for the Nikkei 225 futures trade

This paper examines the impact of changes in margin requirements on returns, transaction volume, and price volatility of the Nikkei 225 futures traded on the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX). An increase in margin requirement on one exchange reduces its trading volume and shifts trade to the competing exchange. Both conditional price volatility and returns are not systematically affected by changes in margin requirements. The loss of OSE's market share of the Nikkei futures trade from 1990 to 1993 is partly due to the increased transactions costs (relative to SIMEX), including the margin requirement.     

Derivatives Clearing,Default Risk,and Insurance

Using daily data on margins and variation margins for all clearing members of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, we analyze the clearing house exposure to the risk of default by clearing members. We find that the major source of default risk for a clearing member is proprietary trading rather than trading by customers. Additionally, we show that extreme losses suffered by important clearing firms tend to cluster, which raises systemic risk concerns. Finally, we discuss how private insurance could be used to cover the loss from defaults by clearing members.     

Initial Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Individual Investor: Insights from Japan

Initial margin requirements represent: (1) a cost impediment to the wealth constrained investor and (2) a potential way of mitigating excessive volatility. However, prior empirical research finds that margins are not an effective tool in reducing volatility. We consider the possibility that margins primarily affect certain stocks and investors. Specifically, we test whether margins affect individuals who, as a group, we believe to be the investors most affected when margin requirements change. Our initial empirical tests, however, do not support this contention.     

Liquidity Constraints,Competition, and Markup Cyclicality

This article provides evidence on the relation among financial constraints, competition, and the cyclicality of markups. Based on a long series of industry data from a large number of countries, we find that markups increase in conjunction with the business cycle in environments with higher short‐term financial constraints (liquidity constraints) and more competition. The evidence also suggests that these two elements complement each other: the procyclicality of markups in firms facing both high competition and high liquidity constraints is higher than that explained by each determinant independently.     

Margins and Price Limits in Taiwan's Stock Index Futures Market

This study extends the framework of Brennan (1986) to find the cost-minimizing combination of spot limits, futures limits, and margins for stock and index futures in the Taiwan market. Our empirical results show that the cost-minimization combination of margins, spot price limits, and futures price limits is 7 percent, 6 percent, and 6 percent, respectively, when the index level is less than 7,000. When the index level ranges from 7,000 to 9,000, the efficient futures contract calls for a combination of 6.5 percent, 5 percent, and 6 percent. The optimal margin, reneging probability, and corresponding contract cost are less than those without price limits. Price limits may partially substitute for margin requirements in ensuring contract performance, with a default risk lower than the 0.3 percent rate that is accepted by the Taiwan Futures Exchange. On the other hand, though imposing equal price limits of 7 percent on both the spot and futures markets does not coincide with the efficient contract design, it does have a lower contract cost and margin requirement (7.75 percent) than that without imposing price limits (8.25 percent).     

Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility

Using daily and monthly stock returns we find no convincing evidence that Federal Reserve margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. The contrary conclusion, expressed in recent papers by Hardouvelis (1988a , b ), is traced to flaws in his test design. We do detect the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. We also confirm the recent finding by Schwert (1988) that changes in margin requirements by the Fed have tended to follow rather than lead changes in market volatility.     

The inflation–output nexus: Empirical evidence from India,South Africa,and Brazil

In this paper we study the relationship between output and inflation for India, South Africa and Brazil, using the EGARCH model. For India and South Africa, we find evidence of: (1) the Cukierman and Meltzer hypothesis that inflation volatility raises inflation; (2) the Friedman hypothesis that inflation raises inflation volatility; and (3) the Black hypothesis that output volatility raises output growth, and that output volatility reduces inflation. For Brazil, we do not find any evidence of a systematic relationship between inflation and output growth.     

Volatility Spillover Effects in Interregional Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Brazil and Turkey

We investigate volatility spillovers between two stock markets: Turkey and Brazil. Using a misspecification-robust causality-in-variance test, we find evidence supporting volatility spillovers from the São Paulo Stock Exchange to the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Moreover, the results imply that financial crises may change the nature of volatility spillovers between the two markets by adding an additional channel of volatility transmission from Turkey to Brazil.     

The Differential Impact of Federal Reserve Margin Requirements on Stock Return Volatility

This study examines the effect of changes in margin requirements on stock price volatility. We examine the possibility that the impact of margin requirements varies with a stock's degree of speculative interest. Using four alternative measures of speculative interest, we divide our sample into ten portfolios. We find no consistent evidence of a relationship between margin requirements and changes in volatility for any portfolio. The inconsistent and often contradictory results produced by these changes question its usefulness by Federal Reserve decision makers.     

Who trades bitcoin futures and why?

Using regulatory data with identifiers, we analyze the traders active in the Bit- coin futures (BTC) contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). We find two primary trader types, those who hold almost exclusively BTC (con- centrated traders) and those who hold BTC to diversify a broader futures portfolio (diversified traders). The prevalence of these two types changes over time. We also study how BTC markets are connected to other futures markets through common holdings of BTC traders. Finally, we analyze the micro BTC contract and find that the trader composition is different than that of the full-size contract.     

Automation, speed, and stock market quality: The NYSE's Hybrid

Automation and trading speed are increasingly important aspects of competition among financial markets. Yet we know little about how changing a market's automation and speed affects the cost of immediacy and price discovery, two key dimensions of market quality. At the end of 2006 the New York Stock Exchange introduced its Hybrid Market, increasing automation and reducing the execution time for market orders from 10 seconds to less than one second. We find that the change raises the cost of immediacy (bid-ask spreads) because of increased adverse selection and reduces the noise in prices, making prices more efficient.     

Intraday patterns in London listed Exchange Traded Funds

In this paper we examine the intraday trading patterns of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange. ETFs have been shown to be characterised by much lower bid–ask spread costs and by lower levels of information asymmetry than individual securities. One possible explanation for intraday trading patterns is that concentration of trading arises at the start of the trading day because informed traders have private information that quickly diminishes in value as trading progresses. Since ETFs have lower trading costs and lower levels of information asymmetry we would expect these securities to display less pronounced intraday patterns than individual securities. We fail to find that ETFs are characterised by concentrated trading bouts during the day and therefore find support for the argument that information asymmetry is the cause of intraday volume patterns in stock markets. We find that ETF bid–ask spreads and volatility are elevated at the open but not at the close. This lends support to the “accumulation of information” explanation that sees high spreads and volatility at the open as a consequence of information accumulating during a market closure and impacting on the market when it next opens.     

Stealth trading: The case of the Tokyo Stock Exchange

The stealth trading hypothesis asserts that informed traders trade strategically by breaking up their orders so as to more easily hide among the liquidity traders. Using data for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), a pure order-driven market, we find evidence that price changes are driven by small- and medium-size trades, with small trades making the greatest contribution to price change relative to their contribution to trading volume. We also find that large trades explain a greater portion of the cumulative price change on high volatility days. Hence, our results support the stealth trading hypothesis for the TSE.