Chicago's Office Market: Price Indices, Location and Time

Conventional wisdom holds that overbuilding and high vacancy, coupled with curtailed tax benefits, have led to reduced office property values since the late 1980s. Yet assertions that office real estate values fell between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s are not supported everywhere by convincing evidence. This study offers a hedonic analysis of Chicago area office properties that sold from 1986 through 1993. Whereas earlier office market studies generally have been based on rents, this study focuses on variation in actual sale prices (although the prices were not adjusted for financing differences). The transaction-based index estimated here does not support the existence of a nominal office property price level decline beginning in the mid-to-late 1980s. In fact, the results show an upward trend in office property values after 1986, with nominal declines in office market price levels occurring only in the latter portion of the study period.     

Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents

This research confirms the existence of a strong vacancy rental adjustment mechanism in the market for office space, such as has been found in housing markets. Using national time-series data, we find that real office rents drop approximately 2% annually, for every percentage point of "excess vacancy" in the market. We also find that the definition of "excess vacancy" has been trending upward over time. Using a recent vacancy forecast suggests that office income streams seem likely to decline in both real and nominal dollars over the next few years.     

Toward a Model of the Office Building Sector

High rise office buildings represent large capital outlays in very competitive markets. Investment and development decisions require careful market analysis to assure sufficient demand to lease the office space at rental rates which will make the venture financially attractive. Present methodology for analyzing future commercial real estate market conditions can at best be said to be inadequate. This methodology relies on concepts such as "market absorption" rates and "normal" vacancy rates. These concepts usually rely on accounting type and trend line techniques to provide forecasts of space demand. In this paper we provide an alternative methodology for forecasting the key variables in the office space market by developing a statistical model of supply and demand. The key variables that need to be forecasted are the stock of office space (in square feet), the flow of new office construction (in square feet), the vacancy rate (in percent), and the rent for office space (net rent per square foot).     

The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market

A review of the post WWII data on national office building construction and vacancy, reveals a recurrent ten-twelve year cycle. Specifying and estimating a structural econometric model for these series leads to several conclusions about this commercial real estate sector. First, the office market appears to "clear" quite slowly, and long-run expectations play an important role in market behavior. Second, supply is definitely more responsive to market conditions than demand. Finally, a six-year forecast suggests that the current over-supply in the market will not go away as fast as in the past.     

Profitability of Office Rental Market in Seoul: An Application of Simultaneous Structural Equations

This article is concerned with the estimation of excess rates of return on the office rental market in Seoul using a simultaneous structural equation model. The office rental market in Seoul is spatially divided into CBD and non-CBD, and the model has three behavior equations of Chonsei price, monthly rent and key deposit, with two identity equations of conversion rate and excess rate of return. This article reveals that it would be rational for the owners to ask tenants for a higher deposit with a lower monthly rent under increasing interest rates because the interest rate has a positive effect on the Chonsei deposit and the key deposit, but a negative effect on the monthly rent. Although high nominal interest rate and low economic growth reduce the excess rate of return on both submarkets, the non-CBD office rental market would be more profitable than the CBD market despite lower levels of the monthly rent and key deposit.     

Income and Appraised Values: A Reexamination of the FRC Returns Data

This paper compares the income of those office properties that are included in the FRC index, with the appraised values that are used to determine the index's appreciation component. We find that the appraised value of the portfolio was a constant multiple of its current income, over the 1978–1988 period. This seems at odds with what modern valuation theory would suggest, since both nominal interest rates and several measures of real rates varied widely over the sample. An alternate interpretation of our results is that the appraised values were based on a set of expectations about future income growth, that turned out over the period, to be continually at odds with respect to actual income.     

Office Rent Processes: The Case of U.S. Metropolitan Markets

This paper synthesizes elements of the traditional and contemporary theory of real estate markets to formulate an empirical framework for exploring metropolitan office rent processes. Such a framework is then applied to the analysis of office rents across 18 U.S. office markets during 1986–1995. The empirical results underscore the sluggishness of rental adjustments, highlight the extent of rental disequilibria across markets, and uncover the role of office employment factors (such as size, diversity, spatial organization, growth rates, and volatility), construction costs, interest rates, amenities, and zoning in shaping interarea differentials in the equilibrium component of office rents.     

The Workings of the London Office Market

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London office market over 1977–1996. The model tracks the market dynamically, and the severe 1985–1996 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the movement of real interest rates. The latter directly affects both construction and real rent levels.     

Tax Structure and Natural Vacancy Rates in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A number of studies have postulated that the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA 1981) was responsible for the dramatic overbuilding that occurred between 1981 and 1986, primarily because returns became less sensitive to "real" demand. While there has been much research on how equilibrium or "natural" vacancy rates in the real estate market are determined, beginning with Rosen and Smith's seminal paper in 1983, virtually none of this work has dealt with the impact of the tax environment. This study makes an initial attempt to answer this question with respect to equilibrium vacancies resulting from tenant (or owner) turnover. A formal model is developed that considers as an objective function the landlord's desire to maximize his/her after-tax equity returns in an environment of monopolistic competition in which individual projects face downward-sloping demand curves, owing to market conditions and a degree of heterogeneity among tenants in search costs or some other characteristic. The natural vacancy rate is shown not to depend directly upon the tax environment, but to depend indirectly upon it only to the extent that equilibrium market rents are lowered. The nature of the vacancy response depends critically upon the shape of the tenant demand response relationship upon its transition to a lower-rent region. This response is interactive with the degree of turnover and supply responsiveness within individual markets.     

Explaining Location Patterns of Suburban Offices

Suburban office markets exhibit a pattern of variegated clustering that is little explained by the conventional theories of urban form based on agglomeration effects and the cost of distance. To explain the pattern, this paper introduces industry economies of scale for "Class A" offices. Empirical tests for industry economies of scale are reported, based on data from the office market of Houston, Texas. The models presented, under conditions typical of North American cities in recent decades, imply the patterns of variegated clustering that are observed. They suggest a sequence of clusters, increasing in size and distance from the central business district. Further, they imply the potential for mass movement by tenants from older clusters to new.     

Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why?

This article tests the hypotheses of convergence to a single level of total factor productivity (TFP), and a steady state of TFP growth rate in China’s agricultural sector. Based on multilateral TFP estimates we found that China’s agricultural sector has rebounded in recent years from a slower TFP growth in the 2005–2007 period. While convergence test results confirm a “catch-up” effect that provinces with lower TFP levels tend to grow faster than others, estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity effect across regions. The rates of β convergence range from 0.016 to 0.039 under different model specifications. Estimates show that higher growth rates of educational attainment, R&D, and intermediate goods density (per unit of labor) can enhance TFP growth. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence, indicating that TFP levels are not converging except in the South region. It implies that to catch up with leading provinces, it would require extra efforts for those lagging behind by increasing their region-specific research investment, promoting rural educational attainment, and enhancing embodied technical change.     

Social support in the workplace between teleworkers,office‐based colleagues and supervisors

This paper draws upon the findings of qualitative interviews carried out with teleworkers, their office‐based colleagues and supervisory staff of a teleworking initiative introduced by a UK public sector local authority to explore workplace social support relationships. Our study found differences between office‐based and permanent teleworking staff in terms of social support. For teleworkers relationships at work are complex, with social support networks being established prior to working at home. By working from home, teleworkers were able to develop greater social support relationships with some colleagues, predominantly other teleworkers, while at the same time allowing them to distance themselves from negative work relationships. Overall, a social disconnection developed between teleworkers and office‐based staff. In contrast social support was more important for office‐based workers, who valued co‐worker relationships with other office‐based staff.     

The Reserve Army Effect, Unions, and Nominal Wage Growth

This paper analyzes the reserve army effect from a perspective which integrates propositions from the social structures of accumulation and regulation approaches. The magnitude of the reserve army effect on nominal wage growth ought to vary according to the subperiods 1958–1970, 1970–1980, and 1980–1987, and also according to subsectors with different unionization rates. This hypothesis is tested empirically by estimating the effect of demand pressure variables on nominal wage growth for heavily, moderately, and lightly unionized sectors. The results generally confirm the hypothesis, while at the same time showing clear differences in the impact of collective bargaining on the reserve army effect between 1958–1970 and 1980–1987.     

National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets

In this paper, we develop and estimate a model that decomposes the variance in office vacancy rates into market-specific, time-specific, and random components. The results indicate significant differences in natural vacancy rates across markets. We also find some persistence in deviations from these natural vacancy rates. The analysis is applied to both central business district (CBD) and suburban office markets. We find that natural vacancy rates differ across CBD markets and across suburban markets. Further, the persistence of disequilibrium in one CBD market seems to differ significantly from that in another. This is not shown to be true for suburban markets.     

How “Local” are Local Office Markets?

This paper describes empirical investigations of the geographical extent of office markets in the United States during the 1980s. A mixed temporal autoregressive model was estimated for pooled downtown office markets and pooled suburban markets. Results indicate that while the temporal autoregressive effect is stronger for office market vacancies than is the effect of the national trend, their linkages to national trends are significant. However, a mixed spatial autoregression analysis of the data pooled over time indicates that the regional office vacancy effect is stronger than the national office vacancy effect in both downtown and suburban office markets.     

Depreciation,investor compensation,and welfare under rate-of-return regulation

Depreciation schedules allocate capital expenditure over time. Investors are properly compensated under any full depreciation schedule, when the allowed rate of return plus inflation adjustments to the rate base just equal the investors' nominal discount rate. Whether changes in this nominal rate are reflected in adjustments to the rate base or the rate of return, depreciation schedules can be chosen to generate efficient time paths of output prices. Practical limits on depreciation schedules, nominal rates, or information may affect the choice between adjusting the rate base or rate of return for temporal changes in capital cost.     

Were Money Wages Always Rigid? A Look at the Reliability of Survey Evidence on Changes in Wage Rates

In recent years, the once conventional view that nominal wage rates were much more flexible before the Great Depression than after has been challenged. This challenge has been reinforced by several recent studies that are based on monthly wage data gathered by state labor bureaus. The surveys used by the state labor bureaus in gathering the data appear to have been biased toward the finding that wages have not changed. Hence inferences drawn from the data collected in these surveys are not reliable.     

The Rise of Experimentalism in German Collective Bargaining

This paper addresses the debate on union strategies by analysing industrial relations change in three of Germany's most internationalized sectors: chemicals, metalworking and construction. It characterizes two logics of change in German industrial relations: a battlefield logic and an experimentalist logic. It demonstrates historical trends towards centralization of wage bargaining in each sector before looking at recent pressures for decentralization and flexibility. In chemi‐cals, the social partners control decentralization. In metalworking increasing flexibility is characterized by a mismatch between the national‐level union and the district‐level employers. Finally, the construction union seeks to replace the centralized bargaining system with a state minimum wage.     

A Regime‐Switching Approach to Modeling Rental Prices of U.K. Real Estate Sectors

This article uses regime‐switching models of the threshold type to analyze the adjustment process of rental prices for three U.K. commercial real estate sectors over the period 1974–2008. The nonlinear models outperform their linear counterparts in in‐sample fit. Their out‐of‐sample forecasting ability is better whenever the corresponding linear models contain a significant amount of neglected nonlinearity. Regime switches are triggered when the growth rates of rental price exceed certain threshold levels. For the industrial and retail sectors such regime switches occur in situations of strong excess demand, for the office sector they occur when there is strong excess supply.     

现行体制下电力行政执法模式探讨

由于我国电力立法滞后于电力体制改革,电力行政执法主体事实上的缺位现象直接导致了电力行政执法难。其根本原因在于行使电力行政执法权的电力管理部门不具备相应的人力、物力资源及经验。本文通过对电力行政执法几种模式的分析,认为现行体制下通过地方立法授权地方电力设施(和电能)保护领导小组或该小组下设的办公室行使电力行政执法权,并将该办公室设置在地方电网经营企业,有望达到电力行政执法效能的最大化。