着力提升县级行高管人员素质

农业银行县级支行是直接从事业务经营的基层一线组织，其高级管理人员素质的高低，对全行能否实现快速持续有效发展具有重要的影响。本文运用管理学、组织行为学的理论，结合农行县级支行的经营特点，对如何提升县级支行高管人员综合素质问题作一粗浅的探讨。     

县级发行库内部管理控制问题与对策

本文从县级支行发行库构造内部管理控制出发,从程序化、规范化管理来实现货币金银内控管理建设,探索一条适合基层发行库内控管理模式,有效防范和化解风险,实现县级支行发行库管理工作的安全、高效。     

小型企业风险特征与管理创新

小企业是县域经济的重要细胞和组成部分,也是银行县级支行业务发展的主要载体。本文就信贷如何有效支持县域经济和小企业的发展,进一步促进银行业务发展,增强县级支行经营活力,进行了认真探索和研究。     

积极探索县级支行职能整合努力提高基层机构运转效率——关于人民银行县级支行职能整合模式的思考

央行在金融监管职能分出后,增加了反洗钱、征信管理等职能,央行县级支行在职能定位和人员配备上需重新整合。从江西省辖内央行县级支行职能整合的实例看,有两种模式可供借鉴。其一为纵向集中模式,即县级支行职能向管辖中支集并;其二为横向集中模式,即县级支行职能实行区域化集并。在积极探索县级支行职能整合的同时,亟待统一明确的相关政策。     

关于农业银行县级支行发展问题的思考

县级支行是农业银行的基本经营层次和核算单位,在农业银行的整个组织体系和经营中层于核心的、关键的地位。当前县级支行的经营和发展面临许多问题,阻碍了农业银行的整体发展。因此,改革人事制度和经营机制,化解经营包袱,增强县级支行的发展能力,不仅是促进县级支行业务发展的需要,而且是推进整个农业银行向前发展的需要。一、农业银行县级支行发展面临的主要     

建立科学有效的机制 走优质高效发展之路

地处经济并不十分发达、经营环境没有明显优势的青岛胶南支行，通过16年的默默耕耘，不断实践和执着探索，成为工商银行县级支行的一面旗帜，胶南支行的经营管理对于我们加强县级支行的建设和发展具有深刻的启迪和借鉴作用，胶南支行取得的优异成绩是工商银行县级支行学习并实践江总书记关于“三个代表”重要思想的集中体现，胶南支行的先进经验充分表明：一个行拥有一个团结奋进、求真务实的领导班子，树立一个从严治行，稳健经营的工作作风，建立一套科学有效的工作机制，就能够在向现代商业银行的转变过程中，率先走出一条优势、高效的发展之路。     

搞活县支行必须理顺利益矛盾

县级支行在转轨的业务经营过程中 ,遇到许多矛盾 ,有来自体制方面的 ,有来自上级行的 ,有来自企业的 ,有来自党政的 ,也有来自县级支行内部的 ,这些矛盾集中表现为利益矛盾 ,它制约着县级支行经营的活力 ,影响了县级支行业务的健康发展。本文拟对理顺县支行利益矛盾进行粗浅探讨。一、县级支行利益矛盾的主要表现1、体制与机制摩擦形成的矛盾。主要表现是 :(1)国有独资商业银行由国家统负盈亏的体制 ,使县级支行盈亏多少都与自己无多大利益关系 ,这与要求县级支行努力实现利润最大化有矛盾 ;(2 )要求农业银行办成真正的商业银行 ,但政策性业…     

农行县级支行改革若干问题之研究

农行县级支行在庞大的农行体系中处于业务经营第一线,占有举足轻重的地位,县级支行经营得好坏与否直接影响甚至左右着农业银行的整体经营状况,县级支行经营缺乏活力就是农行在现阶段所遇到的一大经营困境与难题。本文试图就县级支行改革的若干问题作一番探讨。     

转型期央行县级支行的职能与机制创新

随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步完善,人民银行作为中央银行在宏观调控体系中的地位和作用更加突出,承担的任务更加繁重,面临的挑战更加艰巨,其中金融宏观调控政策在区域经济发展中的进一步实施等需要县级支行发挥更大作用。但当前人民银行县级支行普遍面临人员紧缺．工作偏离职能重心等问题,一定程度上影响了其职能发挥。因此．县级支行改革的迫切性日趋突出,必须在职能定位、机构布局及内设部门等方面做出有效、及时的调整,尽早定位其职能,尽快整合其业务,才能有效提高其履职效能。     

开展“四自”经营是强化农行县级支行经营管理的关键

农业银行的机构、人员和存量资产的绝大部分分布在县级支行,随着扶贫开发贷款和粮棉附营贷款业务划转农行,而工、中、建等国有商业银行退出县域业务转向大中城市市场,县域业务便更加理所当然地成了农业银行的重要组成部分,并由此将对农行系统经营产生重要影响。当前,一方面县级支行的经营状况不良,必然影响农业银行整体经营状况;另一方面,县级支行经营状况改善,必然为农行系统生存与发展提供有力支撑。可见农行商业化经营,县级支行是重点,是主战场。而开展"四自"经营(自主经营、资金自求平衡、经营自担风险、财务自负盈亏)是强化农行县级支行商业化经营、发挥县级支行在农行经营中主体作用的关键。一、县级支行开展"四自"经营的必要性     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.