Interest expectations and exchange rates news

Using a new survey data set ofmatched exchange rate and interest rate expectations for eight currencies relative to the German mark, we examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate returns, news and risk premia. News on interest differentials enters significantly in equations for the difference between the spot rate and the lagged forward rate for the British pound, Japanese yen, Spanish peseta and the US dollar. An unexpected rise in the interest rate differential tends to strengthen the domestic exchange rate. For each of these currencies, we also find significant effects of our ex-ante measure of the risk premium. In addition, we investigate the effect of lagged interest rate differentials as proxy for the risk premium and find that they do not capture time-varying risk premia as is widely suggested in the literature, but probably capture a peso-problem, learning about a policy change, a market-inefficiency or a combination of these factors.     

High-quality bias in vertically differentiated oligopolies—a note on skills, trade, and welfare

In a vertically differentiated Cournot oligopoly where the high-quality variant of the good requires the use of high-quality labor, firms may either all supply the same quality or differentiate their product. In differentiated configurations the number of firms choosing to supply the high-quality variant is generally above the optimum. The opening of trade between symmetric countries entails a pro-competitive effect that raises welfare through a reduction in average quality. This result contrasts with previous findings concerning the opening of trade in vertically differentiated oligopolistic industries (Gabszewicz, Shaked, Sutton, and Thisse,International Economic Review 22 [1981]; Shaked and Sutton, in Kierzkowski, ed.,Monopolistic Competition and International Trade, Oxford 1984).     

Does export and productivity growth linkage exist? Evidence from the Indian manufacturing industry

This paper examines the interrelation between exporting and productivity performance by using a representative sample of Indian manufacturing firms over the period 1994–2006. Specifically, we attempt to test the empirical validity of the learning‐by‐exporting and the self‐selection hypotheses for our sample firms. In order to investigate the linkage, in the first step, we test for causality between TFP and export intensity of firms. Although overall results are rather mixed and provide some support for both hypotheses, still the empirical results are more favorable for the self‐selection behavior of firms. In the next stage, we attempt to provide evidence on export and productivity linkage that occurs during various phases of transition in the export market. Our results suggest that entering in the export market does not improve productivity performance. However, the decision to exit from the export market does have an adverse effect on the productivity. In addition, our results indicate the presence of a high sunk cost of exporting coupled with perhaps lesser information about foreign markets. Finally, our results also lend some support to the significant role of in‐house research activities and economies of scale in firms' productivity performance.     

EMS exchange rate expectations and time-varying risk premia

In this paper we examine exchange risk premia employing a survey dataset of EMS exchange rates. We are able to test a risk premium model directly, i.e. without having to rely on the rational expectations assumption. Our results indicate that time-varying risk premia are present in almost all cases and that a GARCH-in-mean specification for the premium is often appropriate.     

Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry‐Level Data

Changes in labor market institutions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This article documents and analyzes changes in income volatility using data for 11 industrialized countries, 22 industries and 35 years (1970–2004). The article has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor income has declined in parallel to the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the industry‐specific, idiosyncratic component of labor income volatility has hardly changed. Third, cross‐sectional heterogeneity is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high‐ and low‐skilled workers have become more volatile relative to the volatility of capital incomes. Fourth, the volatility of labor income relative to the volatility of capital income declines in the labor share. Trade openness has no clear‐cut impact.     

我国行业协会委托代理关系及对策研究

描述我国行业协会的现状,从委托代理理论出发,分析了行业协会职能、地位不明确,权利与责任不对称,出现道德风险与逆向选择以及冗长的委托代理链降低了监督的效率等问题。进而分别从行业协会、政府和企业的角度提出相应建议,希望有助于完善我国行业协会的委托代理关系。     

Trade Liberalization,Skill‐linked Intermediate Production and the Two‐sided Wage Gap

Abstract

A rising wage‐gap, almost universally, in the last two decades has contradicted the age‐old conventional wisdom of asymmetric wage movements across nations when trade is liberalized. We offer an explanation that fits well with the emerging trade pattern between the developed and more advanced developing countries like India and Mexico. We argue that a tariff reduction in the South on imports of an intermediate good from the North may raise the wage‐gap in both the North and the South. The price of the intermediate good moving in different directions and different factor‐intensity‐ranking of this good relative to the two different final goods produced in the two countries underlie this result. Rising wage inequality may specially affect the South because educational expenses and infrastructure do not allow ready transformation of the vast masses of unskilled workers into skilled workers. Hence, the policy lesson of the paper seems to be more public effort in arranging for smoother acquisition of human capital by the unskilled.     

Do BRICS Have Similar Disaggregated Trade Patterns with Different Regions?

This is the first study attempting to investigate the patterns of BRICS’ imports and exports with five United Nations regional groups: the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and Western European and Others. A panel data gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2016 was used to estimate the gravity variables in the models. The main results provide evidence that reinforced the dissimilarities in the foreign trade patterns of BRICS with these five regional groups. The econometric results substantiated that BRICS’ foreign trade patterns are sensitive to changes in the economies of trading partners from the more developed regions. This is evidence for stronger economic ties between BRICS and the more developed regions such as Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. It also reveals the trade convergence of BRICS in these developed regions.     

中国股票市场透明度改革效果的理论与检验

文章通过观察我国股票市场微观结构特征,在理性预期的分析框架内,用贝叶斯模型解释交易成本、信息不对称和价格发现效率,给出交易前透明度增加对市场微观结构产生影响的三个假设。在此基础上,选择沪深300指数样本股票,采用三种不同检验方法对假设进行实证检验。检验结果表明:交易前透明度的增加,减少了交易成本,降低了股票交易中的信息不对称,提高了市场的价格发现效率。