Married women's labor supply and economic development: Evidence from Sri Lankan household data

Women's labor supply in Sri Lanka has increased steadily since the early 1990s following economic reforms, but remains well below the level predicted by national income, a feature shared by a number of Asian and Latin American countries that have undergone similar reforms and economic growth. To understand the microeconomic determinants of women's work in Sri Lanka's growing economy, this paper estimates a binary‐choice model of married women's labor supply using household survey data spanning a 23‐year period. Decomposition and cohort analysis reveal that women have been drawn into the workforce through falling fertility rates, rising tertiary education, and declining income effects among younger generations, but other factors have undermined this positive trend. Educational attainment reduces married women's labor supply except at the tertiary level, consistent with social stigmas associated with married women in non‐white‐collar employment. The strict sectoral segregation of married women by education level supports this hypothesis. In addition, growth has been concentrated in low‐skilled sectors with self‐employment more prevalent, reducing employment prospects of educated women and prompting their labor force withdrawal. This suggests it is the structure of economic development, rather than speed, that matters for women's labor force activity.     

The scarring effects of youth joblessness in Sri Lanka

Retrospective data on labor market spells for successive cohorts of youth in the school‐to‐work transition in Sri Lanka are used to examine whether early spells of joblessness lead to subsequent difficulty in finding or keeping a job. A balancing score approach is used to generate pairs of youth in the school‐to‐work transition who have similar expected levels of joblessness but who differ in realized levels of joblessness. Assuming that youth are not able to perfectly control whether they are employed or not employed, we argue that marginal differences in joblessness among otherwise observationally equivalent youth can be viewed similarly to a regression discontinuity in experienced joblessness. We find evidence of scarring in that spending the first year after leaving school without a job or training increases subsequent share of time spent jobless by 23–31 percentage points and lowers subsequent wages by 5.5%–7.5%.     

Sri Lankan households a decade after the Indian Ocean tsunami

This study estimates the causal effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on household consumption and income in Sri Lanka 8 years after the event, using a difference‐in‐differences methodology and extensive household survey data. The analysis finds a strong association between the area‐wide tsunami disaster shock and increases in household income and consumption in the long term. The increase in consumption is much smaller than the observed increase in income; while the increase in income is mostly observed in nonagricultural wage income (and a decline in agricultural income). We also find that households in high‐income regions and lower‐damage districts experienced a much better recovery, in terms of income, than those in poorer regions or those districts that experienced more destruction. Deviating from the common observation on short‐term adverse impacts of catastrophic disasters in low‐ and middle‐income countries, these results are suggestive of a potential for long‐lasting and more successful recovery scenarios. Still, Sri Lanka received a very large amount of external assistance post‐tsunami—an amount that may not be replicable elsewhere. It is likely that this massive inflow of assistance, further helped by the end of the armed conflict in 2009, has contributed significantly to this relatively successful recovery.     

ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S EXPENDITURE INEQUALITY 1980–2002: REGRESSION-BASED DECOMPOSITION APPROACHES

Sri Lanka liberalized its economy in 1977, paving the way for more rapid economic growth and higher rates of job creation. But tensions over distributional issues still plague the body politic. This paper investigates the evolution of Sri Lanka's expenditure distribution in the period 1980–2002 and uses three decomposition methodologies—the Fields, the Shapley value decomposition, and Yun's unified method—to determine underlying causes. The study finds that while average adjusted expenditure rose across strata, the rich experienced more rapid expenditure growth leading to greater inequality. Inequality change was driven by differential access to infrastructure, education, and occupation status. Demographic factors, including ethnicity, and spatial factors contributed very little. The study recommends policies that ensure more equitable access to income earning assets such as education and infrastructure services, and that contain the rise in inequality along sectoral, regional, and ethnic fault lines.     

ACCOUNTING FOR SRI LANKA'S EXPENDITURE INEQUALITY 1980–2002: REGRESSION-BASED DECOMPOSITION APPROACHES

Sri Lanka liberalized its economy in 1977, paving the way for more rapid economic growth and higher rates of job creation. But tensions over distributional issues still plague the body politic. This paper investigates the evolution of Sri Lanka's expenditure distribution in the period 1980–2002 and uses three decomposition methodologies—the Fields, the Shapley value decomposition, and Yun's unified method—to determine underlying causes. The study finds that while average adjusted expenditure rose across strata, the rich experienced more rapid expenditure growth leading to greater inequality. Inequality change was driven by differential access to infrastructure, education, and occupation status. Demographic factors, including ethnicity, and spatial factors contributed very little. The study recommends policies that ensure more equitable access to income earning assets such as education and infrastructure services, and that contain the rise in inequality along sectoral, regional, and ethnic fault lines.     

Internal migration and youth entrepreneurship in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This paper analyzes youth internal migration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on entrepreneurship startup in a fresh post‐conflict context. Building on a national representative survey conducted in 2005, a recursive bivariate probit specification is used to jointly estimate the decision models of both migration and entrepreneurship. To evaluate the robustness of results, the propensity score matching method is used to test the concordance of the results after eliminating the redundant impact of unobserved factors. The two main conclusions are that youth migration increases the probability of being an entrepreneur, but in the informal sector. In addition, like secondary and post‐secondary education, the duration of stay after migrating is an important factor to being an entrepreneur in the formal sector. These conclusions are expected to enlighten policy‐makers as to the importance of promoting secondary and post‐secondary education as well as inclusive growth investments that may absorb more youth labor in formal sectors. This is the first exercise in the case of the DRC and since it focuses on youth, the paper makes a unique contribution to the literature related to the link between migration and entrepreneurship in a post‐war context.     

SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING1

The paper reports experience in constructing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for three national economies, viz. Iran, Sri Lanka and Swaziland. The SAMs focus particularly on the distribution of income through disaggregation of household sector income and outlay accounts consistent with more conventional disaggregation of production, factors, etc. The SAMs were conceived as an initial step towards understanding income distribution as an integral part of the development process and have been developed in parallel with work on planning models. Both the Iran and Sri Lanka SAMs were constructed within the context of the International Labour Office, World Employment Programme: that for Iran was intended as a contribution to the work of the Comprehensive Employment Strategy Mission to Iran under WEP auspices; while the Sri Lanka SAM was more specifically a research oriented study. The Swaziland study was financed by the Overseas Development Ministry, London as a research activity. Some learning-by-doing was involved in the sequence of SAMs and the problems encountered, solutions adopted and lessons learned provide the main substance of the paper.     

Once NEET,always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market

In many regions of the world, the persistent, and growing, proportion of young people who are currently Not in Employment, Education or Training—a group increasingly referred to as NEET—is of global concern. This is no less true of Morocco: about 30% of the Moroccan population between age 15 and 24 are currently NEET. Drawing from various rounds of Moroccan Labor Force Surveys, this paper contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor markets in developing countries. First, it identifies the socioeconomic determinants of Morocco's NEETs. Second, employing a synthetic panel (SP) methodology in the context of labor market analysis, the paper describes how the condition of NEETs changes over time. One striking, and worrisome, pattern that emerges from the 2010 SP data is that, even after 8 years, a majority of the NEETs remained outside either the labor market or education, with very little chance of moving out of their situation. Their chronic stagnancy confirms the powerful effect that initial conditions have on determining young people's future outcomes. It also highlights the absence of corrective mechanisms and policy interventions within the Moroccan political economy landscape that could help to change NEETs' outcomes along the line.     

The nonprofit sector in international perspective: The case of Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka, a developing country, has a small but growing nonprofit sector that engages in the formation of social overhead and human capital, as well as in more traditional social services. The most active multipurpose organizations combine large foreign monetary donations with domestic donations of volunteer labor. Smaller organizations depend primarily on modest government grants for financial support. Private domestic monetary contributions, unlike in the U. S., play only a minor role. Origins of these nonprofit institutions, motivations of foreign donors and of volunteer labor, interactions with the government, and implications for economic development and social welfare are examined.     

Optimal Taxation of Risky Human Capital*

In a two‐period life‐cycle model with ex ante homogeneous households, earnings risk, and a general earnings function, we derive the optimal linear labor tax rate and optimal linear education subsidies. The optimal income tax trades off social insurance against incentives to work. Education subsidies are not used for social insurance, but they are only targeted at offsetting the distortions of the labor tax and internalizing a fiscal externality. Both optimal education subsidies and tax rates increase if labor and education are more complementary, because education subsidies indirectly lower labor tax distortions by stimulating labor supply. Optimal education subsidies (taxes) also correct non‐tax distortions arising from missing insurance markets. Education subsidies internalize a positive (negative) fiscal externality if there is underinvestment (overinvestment) in education because of risk. Education policy unambiguously allows for more social insurance if education is a risky activity. However, if education hedges against labor‐market risk, optimal tax rates could be lower than in the case without education subsidies.     

Is there a link between alcohol consumption and the level of poverty?

In many developing countries, in addition to household income, there are a number of other socio-economic determinants of poverty. One such hidden socio-economic factor is alcohol consumption and some studies argue that there is a link between alcohol consumption and poverty. The main aim of this study is to measure the effects of alcohol consumption on the level of poverty in a systematic way. Using Sri Lanka as a case study, this article demonstrates that the consumption of various types of alcoholic beverages, particularly, the illegal beverages, has a significant positive association with the level of poverty. The findings of this study suggest that, in Sri Lanka, the consumption of illegal alcoholic beverages increases the likelihood of being in a poor household by 2–3%. The results of this study also find that households who are characterized as nonpoor but are just above the poverty line behave more like the poor rather than the nonpoor in terms of alcohol consumption. Some of the conclusions from this Sri Lankan case study can be applied to other developing countries.     

Do countries belonging to the same region suggest the same growth enhancing variables? Evidence from selected South Asian countries

We investigate the growth enhancing variables in a group of countries belonging to the same geographical area namely, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh over the period 1960–2010. We find that this “homogeneity” does not necessarily imply that countries have the same growth enhancing variables due mainly to differences in institutions and policies. Our result suggests that time-series econometrics are preferable to identify the growth drivers for a country accurately.     

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.     

The Sri Lankan Unemployment Problem Revisited

High unemployment in Sri Lanka has been attributed to unrealistic expectations, to queuing for public sector jobs, and to stringent job security regulations. However, the empirical evidence supporting these explanations is weak. This paper analyzes individual records from the 1995 Labor Force Survey, and time series for wages in the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The paper rejects the unrealistic‐expectations hypothesis by comparing the impact of education on the actual wages of those who have a job and on the lowest acceptable wages of the unemployed. But it finds substantial rents associated with jobs in the public sector, and in activities protected by high tariffs or covered by job security regulations. A time‐series analysis of the impact of unemployment on wage increases across sectors suggests that many among the unemployed are waiting for “good” job openings, but are not interested in readily available “bad” jobs.     

THE CO‐OPERATIVE REFORM PROCESS IN TANZANIA AND SRI LANKA

ABSTRACT**: This article reports on findings from a three year study of co‐operatives in Sri Lanka and Tanzania. The article asks three questions: why do co‐operative sectors need reforming; what is the co‐operative reform process; and why has reform succeeded in some countries but not others? It provides a short history of co‐operatives in three phases: the colonial period, the post‐colonial nationalist period and the period of market liberalisation. It shows that the control exercised by colonial governments was deepened under nationalist governments, with co‐operatives becoming parastatals. Liberalisation brought a sustained attempt by international agencies to reassert the distinctive nature of co‐operatives as member‐owned businesses. However, co‐ops were ill‐prepared to adjust to a competitive market and the lifting of government regulation; many failed, some were corrupted, while a few became truly member‐controlled. The article draws on documentary analysis and key informant interviews to provide accounts of the reform process in Tanzania and Sri Lanka. It finds that the process is incomplete and often contested.     

Youth idleness in Eastern Europe and Central Asia before and after the 2009 crisis

ABSTRACT

Youth idleness is a significant problem in many countries, including in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) where it has rarely been studied. Labour market and education policies need to be based on a strong knowledge base on the Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) population. This paper uses micro-level data from the early 2000s through 2011 to fill knowledge gaps. NEET rates for different age intervals, gender and educational attainment are investigated for the ECA region and countries within. We find that the NEET rate in ECA was declining prior to the 2009 crisis and increased afterwards, with a more pronounced impact on males. Our findings reveal considerable heterogeneity across countries likely due to varying demographics, labour market conditions and education policies. Policies on idle youths in this region need to be tailored to varying national situations. This paper also suggests pathways for future research.

Abbreviations: NEET: Not in Employment, Education or Training; ECA: Eastern Europe and Central Asia     

Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.     

The lack of loan aversion among Canadian high school students

Evidence is presented on the factors that influence take‐up for postsecondary education financing (loans or grants) for high school students. Results show several factors influence the students' decisions about taking loans or grants but the most prominent influence was the price of educational subsidy. A total of 1,248 high school students across Canada participated. Prices for the grants and loans overlapped substantially in order to more clearly distinguish the impact of loan aversion on the decision to take up financial assistance to pursue PSE. The study featured paid experimental decisions (ranging from $25 to $700 in cash and from $500 to $4,000 in education financing), a numeracy assessment, a student survey and a parental telephone survey. The targeted sample included at‐risk high school students: low SES levels, First Nations and first generation students. Participants were marginally sensitive to the form of financing (grant or loan), with no evidence of systematic loan aversion being detected.     

On Corruption and Countervailing Actions in Three South Asian Nations

We argue that readily available data and information in newspaper stories enable one to discern the nature and patterns of corruption and to understand actions taken to combat corruption. We analyze and compare numerous newspaper reports of corruption in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Using analysis derived from existing theory of corruption, we demonstrate how information in news accounts improves our understanding of corruption. Bangladesh had more coercive corruption, with countervailing actions dominated by direct actions of victims. In India and Sri Lanka, corruption was generally collusive, with countervailing actions on behalf of victims frequently leading to legal actions and investigative reports.