Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea-ASEAN commodity trade data

The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long- and short-run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long- and short-run.     

Do asylum-seekers respond to policy changes? Evidence from the Swedish–Syrian case*

Do asylum-seekers respond to policy changes in their destination country, and to what extent? We approach this question by using high-frequency data, and we focus on a sudden liberalization in Swedish policy toward Syrian asylum-seekers, which implied permanent instead of temporary residence. We show a clear and fast, yet temporary, increase in Syrian asylum applications in Sweden after the policy change. Also, the policy caused a shift – not limited to the short term – in the share of individuals arriving without family, and consequently in the share applying for family reunification. Our study adds quasi-experimental evidence to the literature on inter-country asylum flows and migration policy.     

On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade.     

How responsive are trade flows between Malaysia and China to the exchange rate? Evidence from industry data

This paper investigates the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade between Malaysia and China, especially how a real depreciation of ringgit against the yuan on each industry’s inpayments and outpayments affect the trade balance. We employ disaggregated quarterly data on import and export for 52 industries over the period 1993Q1 to 2012Q4. The results from the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and error-correction model reveal that the real bilateral exchange rate has short and long-run effects on the inpayments and outpayments of the industries. However, the short-run effects shift into the long run in 14 out of 35 industries in the inpayment models and 17 out of 44 industries in the outpayments models. Most of these are small industries producing intermediate goods. According to the ML condition, the depreciation of ringgit against yuan improves Malaysia’s trade balance with China in these industries.     

Trade Policy and Antitrust: Do Consumers Matter to Legislators?

We provide one of the first efforts to measure the importance of consumer preferences in legislators' trade policy decisions by estimating the degree to which the level of antitrust enforcement in the legislator's state impacts his or her vote on free trade agreements. To the extent that antitrust and trade liberalization are both viewed as pro‐consumer in nature, we would expect to see a positive relationship between antitrust enforcement in their legislative district and Congressional votes in support of trade liberalization. We find evidence suggesting that consumer preferences do play a role in legislative decisions on trade policy.     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade flows in the context of disaggregating industry data of bilateral trade between Korea and Japan. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. Results show that Korea's exports and imports are relatively sensitive to the bilateral exchange rate in the short-run, but less responsive in the long-run. It is also found that income in the two countries has significant impacts on the bilateral trade flows in both the short- and long-run. Finally, exchange rate uncertainty and Japanese FDI to Korea are found to have little impacts on Korea's trade with Japan in the short- and long-run.     

Do the Rich Save More? Evidence from Canada

This paper provides new evidence on the long‐standing question of whether more affluent households save a larger fraction of their income. The major difficulty in empirically assessing the relationship between incomes and saving rates is to construct a credible proxy for long‐run income—purged of transitory fluctuations and measurement error. The Canadian Family Expenditure Survey provides us with both unusually good data on savings rates and potential predictors with which we can construct reliable long‐run income proxies. Our empirical analysis suggests that the estimated relationship between saving rates and long‐run incomes is sensitive to the predictor used to proxy long‐run income. Nevertheless, our preferred estimates indicate that, except for poorest households (who simply do not save), saving rates do not differ substantially across predicted long‐run income groups.     

Do SPS measures matter for margins of trade? Evidence from firm-level data

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) standards, countries are allowed to adapt regulations under the Sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) agreements in order to protect human, animal and plant health, as well as environment and human safety. Yet, these measures can become an impediment in international trade, especially for developing countries. Therefore, using an Egyptian firm-level data set and a new database on specific trade concerns raised in the TBT and SPS committees at the WTO, we analyse the effects of product standards on two related aspects: first, the probability to export (firm-product extensive margin), and second, the value exported (firm-product intensive margin). We merge this data set with a new database on specific trade concerns raised in the TBT and SPS committees at the WTO. Our main findings show that SPS measures imposed on Egyptian exporters have a negative impact on the probability of exporting a new product to a new destination. By contrast, the intensive margin of exports is not significantly affected by such measures.     

Do South‐South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity‐level evidence from COMESA

Abstract .  South-South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North-North and North-South micro-level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South-South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that – in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics – COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade-diversion effects.     

Do CEOs in Mergers Trade Power for Premium? Evidence from "Mergers of Equals"

I analyze chief executive officer (CEO) incentives to negotiateshared control in the postmerger governance of the survivingfirm. In order to do this, I study abnormal returns in a sampleof "mergers of equals" (MOEs) transactions in which the twofirms are approximately equal in postmerger board representation.These transactions are friendly mergers generally characterizedby premerger negotiations that result in both greater sharedcontrol (board and management) and more equal sharing of mergergains between the two firms. On average, the value created measuredby combined event returns is no different between MOEs and amatched sample of transactions. However, target shareholderscapture less of the gains measured by event returns in transactionswith shared governance. Moreover, target shareholders' shareof the gains is systematically related to variables representingpostmerger control rights, and shared governance is more likelyin transactions in which CEOs face greater incentives for control.The evidence suggests that CEOs trade power for premium by negotiatingshared control in the merged firm in exchange for lower shareholderpremiums.     

Do farmers choose to be inefficient? Evidence from Bicol

Farming households that differ in their ability or willingness to take on risks are likely to allocate resources and effort among income producing activities differently with consequences for productivity. In this paper we measure voluntary and involuntary departures from efficiency for rice producing households in the Bicol region of the Philippines. We take advantage of a panel of observations on households from 1978, 1983 and 1994. Available monthly weather data and survey information on planting times allows us to create household specific measures of weather shocks, which we use in our analysis. We find evidence that diversification and input choices do affect efficiency outcomes among farmers, although these effects are not dominant; accumulated wealth, past decisions to invest, favorable market conditions, and propitious weather are also important determinants of efficiency outcomes among Bicol rice farmers. Our findings suggest that the costs of incomplete formal and informal insurance markets are higher for poorer farmers.     

Why Do the Gains from Trade Reform Vary Between Countries?

This paper assesses, both theoretically and empirically, the determinants of differential gains from trade policy reform across countries. The theoretical model shows that asymmetrical features of the world economy, including the relative size of the differentiated products sector in each country, the dominance of domestic markets by indigenous producers, trade costs, and the relative importance of exports, all play an important role. Results from a multi-region computable general equilibrium model substantiate the proposition that the initial pattern of asymmetry is relatively more important than scale and varietal effects, despite the fact that the latter have received more attention in the literature.     

Does the reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment? Evidence from the China−ASEAN Free Trade Area

Regional trade policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting enterprises' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper uses the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area as the research object. The research uses the “China Industrial Firm Database” from 2001 to 2013 and the “List of Chinese Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions)” to match micro‐enterprise data. Using the difference‐in‐difference (DID) approach to construct quasi‐natural experiments, we study the impact of the reduction in regional trade policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises' OFID. The results show that the free trade agreement strategy implemented by China has reduced the regional trade policy uncertainty, which has had a significant positive impact on Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The establishment of the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area has significantly increased Chinese enterprises' OFID in ASEAN countries. The study further finds that enterprises of different ownership types, in different regions and of different factor intensities display heterogeneous effects in this process. The empirical results of the paper provide new ideas for promoting OFDI from the standpoint of reducing regional trade policy uncertainty, and also provide a new perspective for explaining the increase in foreign investment in China in recent years.     

Is International Trade Relevant to Social Trust Formation? Evidence from Cross-country Analysis

In this paper, we investigate whether international trade itself can contribute to the level of generalized trust. We extend the existing empirical research in several ways. First, we use a larger sample size, we test and reject the treatment of international trade as an exogenous variable, and we address trade endogeneity using instrumental variables estimators. Second, we use geographical variables and international trade prices to instrument for international trade. Third, we perform instrumental variables diagnostics tests to determine the suitability and relevance of our instruments; we also perform tests of the statistical significance of our parameter of interest that are robust to the presence of weak instruments. Our empirical analysis suggests that international trade does have a significant and relatively large positive effect on social trust and reconfirms the role played by other variables like income inequality in the formation of trust found in the literature.     

China’s Experience with Indexed Government Bonds, 1988–1996: How Credible Was the People’s Republic’s Anti-Inflationary Policy?

The People's Republic of China introduced indexed government bonds in the face of the inflation panic of 1988–89 and reintroduced them when inflation surged upward again in 1993. Measures of inflation expectations—as derived from the trading prices of these indexed bonds—suggest that the government gained credibility from its ability to contain inflation in 1989. But the government's failure to quickly halt the 1993–95 inflation led, by late 1994, to soaring inflation expectations and, ultimately, a heavy financial penalty for the government as the 1992 and 1993 bond issues matured while inflation was still high.     

Does consumption respond to predicted increases in cash-hand availability?: Evidence from the Italian “severance pay”

We examine whether Italian household consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to “severance pay”, a sizable lump-sum that workers receive at job termination. We find no evidence of excess sensitivity of non-durable expenditure to this anticipated cash-in-hand change.