Trade Liberalisation in Developing Economies: Modest Benefits but Problems with Productivity Growth, Macro Prices, and Income Distribution

Microeconomically, the case for liberalisation is dubious under increasing returns to scale and when firms can invest directly in productivity enhancement. Distributional effects of commercial policy changes can be regressive and large, but the 'rents' they generate can serve as a basis for effective policy intervention contingent on firms' performance. Macroeconomically, the case of liberalisation rests on Say's Law, which is not always enforced. Recent combined current and capital market liberalisations have been associated with strong exchange rates and high interest rates and output and productivity growth have positive mutual feedbacks which liberalisation may well suppress.     

Income Distribution,Household Debt and Growth in Modern Financialized Economies

Abstract:

We analyze some core features of the institutional transformation of the Canadian and U.S. economies over the last half century, as they became increasingly financialized economies resting on household consumption as the key contributor to economic growth, despite weak growth in real wages and personal disposable income. This growth in consumption spending is highly fragile not only because it is a debt-led growth that has relied on an unsustainable expansion of household indebtedness largely dependent on credit bubbles in the housing market, but also because of the perverse form of this indebtedness. Studied from the angle of disaggregated household consumption/saving behavior, it is the poorest and most vulnerable households who have been building up unsustainable debt, thereby presaging increasing financial fragility and crises.     

Business Cycles Between Developed and Developing Economies

This paper compares the stylized facts of international real business cycles between developed and developing countries. A two-sector two-country real business cycles model is constructed to examine the cyclical behaviors of domestic as well as international macroeconomic variables, and to evaluate the model's consistency with empirical observations. The model predicts correctly that consumption, investment, and saving are procyclical, while the trading balance/output ratio is countercyclical. There exist, however, some discrepancies between the model and the data.     

Impact of International Trade,Remittances and Industrialization on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh

There are several important factors of growth and many endeavors have been made to apply these factors to explain the growth of different economies at different times. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine the impact of international trade, remittances and industrialization on the economic growth of Bangladesh using annual data from the period of 1976 to 2010. This study uses the time series econometrics methodology, which covers tests for stationary, cointegration, and specification of the model. This study also focuses on finding causal relationship among export, import, remittances, and industrialization on the economic growth of Bangladesh by using Granger causality test. The result shows that the variables are cointegrated, implying a long-run causal relationship among export, import, remittances, and industrialization on the economic growth of Bangladesh.     

Growth and Income Distributions in Four EU Economies

Dynamic multi-sectoral and multi-household general equilibrium models are constructed to show how the economies of Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom will evolve from 2006 to 2090. These models generate dynamic paths of investment and capital accumulations, demand and supply across production sectors, consumption and welfare of households, relative prices of goods and services, revenue and expenditure of governments, exports, imports, and trade balance consistent with the dynamic general equilibrium in these economies. The models show that inequalities in income distribution among households will not decrease but widen if the current mix of direct and indirect taxes continues in all four countries. Growing inequalities in these economies justify further investments in education and skills.     

Remittances, schooling, and child labor in Mexico

This paper studies the effects of remittances from the U.S. on child labor and school attendance in recipient Mexican households. We identify these effects using the impact of the 2008-2009 U.S. recession on remittance receipts. The methodology employed is a differences-in-differences strategy that compares households that were remittance recipients before the crisis with never-recipient households. To avoid possible selection problems, we instrument for membership in the remittance recipient group. We find that the negative shock on remittance receipts caused a significant increase in child labor and a significant reduction of school attendance.     

Appropriate Payment Vehicles in Stated Preference Studies in Developing Economies

Selecting appropriate payment vehicles is critical for the perceived consequentiality and incentive compatibility of stated preferences surveys. We analyze the performance of three different payment vehicles in a Malaysian case of valuing wetland conservation. Two are well-known: voluntary donations and income taxes. The third is new: reductions in government subsidies for daily consumer goods. Using donations is common, but this payment vehicle is prone to issues of free-riding. An income tax usually has favorable properties and is commonly used in environmental valuation. However, in Malaysia as well as in many other low- to middle-income economies, large proportions of people do not pay income taxes, putting the validity of this payment vehicle into question. Instead, citizens in Malaysia and many other countries benefit from subsidies for a range of consumer goods. We find that price sensitivity is higher and the unexplained variance smaller when using subsidies rather than donations or income taxes. Importantly, this approach translates into completely different conclusions concerning policy advice. Our results suggest that in developing countries, using reduced subsidies as a payment vehicle may have favorable properties in terms of improved payment consequentiality compared to alternative payment vehicles, thus enhancing the external validity of stated preference surveys.     

能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与APEC地区经济增长——基于SBM-Undesirable和Meta-frontier模型的实证研究

针对以往效率测算方法存在的缺陷以及跨国研究中制度的异质性问题,本文采用SBM-Undesirable模型和Meta-frontier生产函数这一综合分析框架,在能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的双重约束条件下,测算了APEC地区17个成员1980-2007年期间的经济增长效率,并对双重约束下经济增长效率的影响因素进行了计量检验。研究发现,除了发展中国家群组之外,发达国家群组和东亚新兴经济体群组中有部分国家(和地区)在个别年份位于潜在最佳生产技术的共同边界上;各群组的共同技术效率(MTE)和共同技术比率(MTR)平均值从高到低的排序均依次为发达国家、东亚新兴经济体和发展中国家;人均GDP、工业化水平、人口密度、劳均资本以及对外开放程度等因素对双重约束下APEC地区共同技术效率具有显著影响,但对三大群组技术效率的影响方向及程度则呈现出不尽相同的结果。     

Neoclassical Growth, Manufacturing Agglomeration, and Terms of Trade

This study reverses the prediction of geography and growth models that trade integration may cause income divergence. Moreover, a new dynamic welfare gain of trade openness is identified. These results are obtained from embedding a new economic geography model into a neoclassical growth model. Starting from symmetric countries, a country that accumulates more capital than the other increases its home market size, improves its terms of trade, and lowers its relative consumption price index, because trade costs drive a wedge in between relative producer and consumption price indices. Both effects in turn tend to increase its marginal revenue product of capital relative to the other country (divergence forces), while factor substitution diminishes its marginal revenue product of capital (convergence force). Reducing trade costs decreases the wedge and weakens the divergence forces, while the convergence force is unaffected. Hence, divergence is more likely with higher rather than lower trade costs.     

资源诅咒传导机制之“荷兰病”——理论模型与实证研究

荷兰病指一个国家或地区的资源产业突然繁荣往往会通过要素、产品和货币市场的一系列反应挤出当地制造业,使之逐渐衰退,或者难以起步,它是典型的资源诅咒传导机制之一。本文首先简单介绍了荷兰病产生的原因和危害,然后借助模型分析详细解释其背后的原理,继而通过实证和案例分析说明在我国,荷兰病具有相当的普遍性,并且不同于荷兰、挪威等发达国家,我国荷兰病的主要症结在于挤出制造业固定资产投资,而非提高劳动力雇佣成本。最后,以现实为基础提出如何改变我国资源富集地区产业单一化和初级化的政策建议,目的在于充分发挥这些地区的资源优势,缩小东西部差距。     

适宜技术、技术选择和发展中国家的经济增长

在本文中，我们认为一个国家最适宜（优）的技术结构内生决定于这个国家的要素禀赋结构。如果一个发展中国家选择与其要素禀赋结构相一致的技术结构，那么这个发展中国家和发达国家之间在全要素生产率以及每个劳动力的人均产出上的差异就会变得最小。进一步地，如果发展中国家选择最适宜的技术，那么由于发展中国家在技术变迁的成本上比发达国家低，因此，发展中国家的经济增长速度可以超过发达国家的经济增长速度，从而，我们可以得出发展中国家可以收敛到发达国家的结论。     

Dutch Disease,factor mobility,and the Alberta Effect: the case of federations

Do reduced costs of factor mobility mitigate Dutch Disease effects to the extent that they are reversed? The case of federations provides an indication they do. We observe resource blessing (curse) effects at the provincial (federal) level, and argue the difference in outcomes stems from the difference in factor mobility costs. We construct a simple tax competition model which shows that if factor mobility costs are sufficiently low, a resource‐boom triggers an Alberta Effect that mitigates, and possibly reverses, Dutch Disease symptoms. The paper concludes with empirical evidence for the main implications of the model.     

The Dark Matter of Innovation: Design and Innovative Performance in Dutch Manufacturing

This paper focuses on the impact of expenditures on design on the innovative performance of Dutch manufacturing firms. The competitive advantage of a firm often depends on its ability to innovate. Past research has shown that investments in research and development (R&D) can play a key role in stimulating innovation, yet relatively few studies have examined the impact of expenditures on design on innovative performance. Using a database containing 2010 firms from the Netherlands, this paper explores the association between expenditures on design and product innovation, highlighting the importance of the new range of 'downstream' innovation activities for understanding innovation performance.     

Remittances flow and financial development in Bangladesh

Workers' remittance is a major source of foreign exchange earnings and plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh. It accounts for 12% of GDP in 2010. This paper examines with annual data for 1971–2008, whether the flow of remittances is contributing positively to the development of the financial system of the country. Our results suggest that remittances have a significant positive effect on financial development. However, financial sector's development is neutral in its effect on the inflow of remittances.     

发达和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的比较研究

本文在对发达经济体和发展中经济体对华贸易救济的特征差异进行分析的基础上,运用贸易救济指控指数和贸易救济涉案金额指数两项指标,进一步分析了其对中国出口贸易影响的差异,得出的结论是:发达经济体和发展中经济体在立案数量、措施选取、涉案行业、涉案金额、案件执行率和诉诸WTO等方面呈现出明显的特征差异,相对其在中国出口贸易中的地位而言,发展中经济体的贸易救济对中国出口贸易的影响大于发达经济体。     

制造业价值链拓展升级、结构调整与经济持续增长

本文通过分析表明,我国目前面临的多种结构性问题和矛盾的主要根源在于我国制造业在全球生产价值链中的位置低下,因此驱使制造业沿着生产价值链路径向上拓展升级就是我国实现经济结构调整、转变经济增长方式的必由之路。我国经济发展已形成的制造业大国格局和高等教育快速发展所带来的劳动力人力资本结构变化,使我国的要素禀赋发生了很大变化,已为我国制造业的转型升级提供了必备的条件。在制造业沿着生产价值链阶梯拓展升级的路径上,企业生产技术水平和研发实力的不断提升,以及自主品牌的策划营销和市场的不断开拓,是其中的两个关键环节。制造业的转型升级是一个长期的过程,既需要企业自身的努力,也需要政府在制度和政策上加以鼓励和引导,并在税收和融资等方面加以扶持。     

Productive Consumption and Growth in Developing Countries

Productive consumption enables the satisfaction of current needs and increases the productive potential of labor. The productive-consumption hypothesis is of fundamental interest because it modifies the harsh intertemporal consumption tradeoff traditionally assumed. The incorporation of the productive- consumption hypothesis into a simple endogenous growth model reveals the following implications: (i) the possibility of a poverty-trap; (ii) the rule of optimal consumption turns into a modified Keynes–Ramsey rule; (iii) the (effective) IES is based on, inter alia , the technological opportunities to enhance human capital due to productive consumption; (iv) a rising saving rate; and (v) transitional dynamics to an asymptotic balanced-growth path.     

Special Economic Zones in Developing and/or Transition Economies: a Policy Proposal

Making use of a global partitioning (disintegration) approach, a novel necessary and sufficient condition for the creation of Pareto‐improving special economic zones is derived. It is shown that the establishment of a special economic zone may be desirable even if foreign investment has an immiserization effect. The present approach allows not only for the use of mobile but also immobile domestically owned factors in the special economic zone. Adopting a political economy perspective, multihousehold economies with and without the feasibility of lump‐sum compensation are modeled. It is shown that, subject to a certain condition, the setting up of special economic zones accompanied by appropriate tax policies results in an increase in government revenue. The latter may be used to finance much‐needed investment in infrastructure or the production of public goods.