Legacy and credit scores in South Africa

This paper assesses the impact of legacy and credit scores on access to bank credit in South Africa. Typically, credit data focuses on socio-economic information. However legacy variables, factors beyond the control of individuals, have not been well considered. We find that although credit scores clearly influence access to credit, legacy has a statistically significant impact on credit scores and on the amount of credit granted. While these results can be interpreted as bias against those with negative legacy, they can also be explained in terms of information asymmetry and the relative ability to enforce contracts with clients who have positive legacy.     

Earnings inequality and unemployment in South Africa

Unemployment and earnings inequality have moved together remarkably closely in South Africa in recent years. This article explores the relationship between unemployment and earnings inequality in South Africa, investigating the extent to which changes in unemployment can account for changes in earnings inequality. Static and dynamic decompositions of earnings inequality by employment status reveal the centrality of unemployment in accounting for the both level and trend of earnings inequality. The distribution of employment in the formal and informal sectors is found to be of lesser importance in explaining earnings inequality, as is wage dispersion within each of these categories. The findings point to the central importance of reducing unemployment in South Africa if the extremely high levels of inequality are to be reduced.     

Inflation and growth in South Africa

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and growthin South Africa. Two main issues are addressed: do tests ofthe South African data support the findings of cross-sectionstudies that inflation has a negative effect on growth overthe longer term? and, can higher growth be gained at the costof higher inflation in the short run? The findings are thatinflation drags down growth in South Africa over the longerterm, and that, in the short run, growth above its trend requiresaccelerating inflation. Thus, for growth to be pulled substantiallyabove its present low trend, inflation targeting in South Africawould have to be abandoned. However, this would be counterproductiveover the longer term, once the negative relationship betweeninflation and growth manifests itself.     

Competition and productivity growth in South Africa

This article shows that mark‐ups are significantly higher in South African manufacturing industries than they are in corresponding industries worldwide. We test for the consequences of this low‐level of product market competition on productivity growth. The results of the paper are that high mark‐ups have a large negative impact on productivity growth in South African manufacturing industry. Our results are robust to three different data sources, two alternative measures of productivity growth, and three distinct measures of the mark‐up. Controlling for potential endogeneity of regressors does not eliminate the findings.     

South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success1

More than halfway through the decade, the South African economy has done very well. This report asks whether such achievements provide grounds for complacency. In particular it discusses the current account challenge in light of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGI‐SA) program. Our assessment is that a cautionary note on the need to reduce external imbalances is needed. We provide policy recommendations to minimize the negative impact of a possible sudden stop of capital inflows. On the consistency of ASGI‐SA program, we note that, given South Africa's recent employment and productivity performance a large investment program would be required to deliver the desired growth rates. In our view this imposes a large burden on public investment and on the current account itself.     

Financial systems and economic growth in South Africa: a dynamic complementarity test

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development.     

Commentary. Stuck in low GEAR? Macroeconomic policy in South Africa, 1996-98

Despite its ideology while in opposition, once in power theANC government implemented an orthodox macroeconomic policywhich stressed deficit reduction and a tight monetary policy,combined with trade liberalisation. The stated purpose of thispackage (the Growth, Employment, and Redistribution programme,or GEAR) was to increase economic growth, with a 4.2% rate programmedfor 1996-2000. At mid-term of the programme, growth remainedfar below this target. The GEAR's lack of success cannot beexplained by unfavourable external factors; rather, the disappointingperformance seemed the result of fiscal contraction and excessivelyhigh interest rates.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

Why has unemployment risen in the New South Africa?1

We document the rise in unemployment in South Africa since the transition in 1994. We describe how changes in labour supply interacted with stagnant labour demand to produce unemployment rates that peaked between 2001 and 2003. Meanwhile, compositional changes in employment at the sectoral level widened the gap between the skill‐level of the employed and the unemployed. Using nationally representative panel data, we show that stable unemployment rates mask high individual‐level transition rates in labour market status. Our analysis highlights several key constraints to addressing unemployment in South Africa. We conclude that unemployment is near equilibrium levels and is unlikely to self‐correct without policy intervention.     

The political economy of high-tech industries in developing countries: aerospace in Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa

This paper explores the dynamics of high-tech industrialisationin three emerging countries with sub-regional power ambitionsin the peculiar case of aerospace. The focus of the analysisis on the interaction between economic and political factors,at both the domestic and the international levels. The three(initially) state-owned firms show diverging fortunes that reflectdifferences in the ability to align the ownership structureto the financial requirements of technological upgrading, toadopt modern management practices, to participate actively inthe internationalisation of global supply chains, and to garnerthe support of domestic interest groups.     

Wealth differentiation in household use and trade in non-timber forest products in South Africa

Findings from southern Africa and internationally indicate the local use and trade of NTFPs to be significant however most present a composite picture, failing to account for intra-community socio-economic differences. These differences may have implications for policy and practice related to poverty alleviation and sustainable use. This paper reports on a study in South Africa which explored the relationship between household wealth and the use, procurement and sale of NTFPs in two villages. There was no influence of wealth on the proportion of households using or purchasing most of the NTFPs, or the number used. However, wealthier households bought significantly more resources per household, and poor households (at one village) sold significantly more. These results are discussed within the context of local conditions and poverty alleviation debates.     

南非国家公园资金保障机制及其对 中国的启示

建立完善的资金保障机制是国家公园运营管理的关 键,决定了国家公园保护目标能否实现。对南非国家公园资金 保障机制的形成原因、特点及其保护绩效进行梳理后发现,其 市场化特征显著,形成了以市场渠道为主、财政渠道与社会渠 道为补充的资金保障机制。在多元化资金支持下,南非国家公 园维持了较为完整的生态系统,为游客提供了高质量的服务, 为社区转型作出了贡献,但也存在生物多样性保护不力和环境 破坏的问题。根据中国国家公园试点情况,同时借鉴南非国家 公园资金保障机制的经验和教训,我国应根据国家公园建设阶 段的不同实行不同的资金模式;合理确定资金使用结构;在不 损害保护目标的前提下,开展特许经营、生态旅游业务。     

非洲建构自主发展动力体系的新探索——南非本土知识国家战略述评

南非本土知识国家战略系统提出发展本土知识的价值纲领，并从国家教育、创新系统，政府管理机构和运行机制，政策和法律调整框架，人力资源发展和能力建设，信息和研究机构建设等方面，阐明南非发展本土知识的方向和措施，对促进科技创新、知识创新，具有突出的现实意义。同时，就国家层面管理本土知识而言，南非本土知识国家战略是非洲面向新世纪积极建构自主发展动力体系的新探索，将对非洲的发展产生深远的影响。     

南非基础研究经费投入格局和近期出台的计划与举措

2014年5月南非新一届内阁成立,其新任科技部长宣布将在未来5年内实现RD占GDP比重为1.5%的目标,显示出南非科技投入将进入一个新的历史阶段。南非基础研究投入一直处于稳步增长态势,其政府是主要投入力量。近年来,南非针对基础研究出台了一系列的相关战略、计划与措施,如:加大对大科学计划的支持;出台了生物经济战略;加强对科学基础设施建设的规划;扩大卓越中心建设,提升基础研发能力;大力吸引科技人才,加强科研领军人才队伍建设等。期望通过对南非基础研究投入的发展和格局变化的介绍,以及对南非政府出台的相关政策措施的分析研究,对我国依靠创新驱动和提高基础研究能力具有一定的借鉴意义。     

南非突发电力短缺危机及其应对措施

2008年1月中下旬,南非突然爆发电力短缺危机,各界为之震动.本文简要介绍了此次危机的情况,解析了危机发生的原因,阐述了南非政府为应对此次突发电力短缺危机所采取的各项措施,并提出了相关建议.     

A comparative review of the pharmacoeconomic guidelines in South Africa

Objective: To compare the pharmacoeconomic guidelines in South Africa (SA) with other middle- and high-income countries.

Methods: A comparative review of key features of the pharmacoeconomic guidelines in SA was undertaken using the Comparative Table of Pharmacoeconomic Guidelines developed by the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, and published country-level pharmacoeconomics guidelines. A random sample of guidelines in high- and middle-income countries were analyzed if data on all key features were available. Key features of the pharmacoeconomic guidelines in SA were compared with those in other countries, and divergent features were identified and elaborated.

Results: Five upper middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Malaysia, and Mexico), one lower middle-income country (Egypt), and six high-income countries (Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Taiwan, and the Netherlands) were analyzed. The pharmacoeconomic guidelines in SA differ in important areas when compared with other countries. In SA, the study perspective and costs are limited to private health-insurance companies, complex modelling is discouraged and models require pre-approval, equity issues are not explicitly stated, a budget impact analysis is not required, and pharmacoeconomic submissions are voluntary.

Conclusions: Future updates to the pharmacoeconomic guidelines in SA may include a societal perspective with limitations, incentivize complex and transparent models, and integrate equity issues. The pharmacoeconomic guidelines could be improved by addressing conflicting objectives with policies on National Health Insurance, incentivize private health insurance companies to disclose reimbursement data, and require the inclusion of a budget impact analysis in all pharmacoeconomic submissions. Further research is also needed on the impact of mandatory pharmacoeconomic submissions in middle-income countries.     

Household Social Mobility for Paid Domestic Workers and Other Low-Skilled Women Employed in South Africa

This paper explores the theme of patronage by examining how the social mobility prospects of paid domestic workers differ from other vulnerable low-skilled black and colored women in post-apartheid South Africa. The literature provides contradictory predictions about the effects of a relationship with an affluent employer on a vulnerable employed woman and her household. Using data from the 2002–8 General Household Survey, this study uses propensity score matching (PSM) to compare paid domestic workers versus employed women with similar labor market characteristics. It finds that the household members of paid domestic workers tend to have a lower likelihood of unemployment, lower unemployment duration, higher likelihood of owning assets, and lower prevalence of hunger. It is, however, important to see evidence of such benefits in the context of a complicated employment relationship and to highlight that such benefits can reflect both altruistic and self-serving employer motivations.     

Industrial labour productivities and tariffs in South Africa

The analysis of the effect of tariffs for labour productivity faces the challenge of tariff policy endogeneity. Tariff policy is designed to promote economic development and the industrial sector tariff structure may reflect characteristics of the industries protected. We seek to identify the effect of tariffs by taking advantage of multilateral tariff liberalization using reductions in industrial sector tariffs in other world regions as instruments for sectoral tariff reductions in South Africa. The data cover 28 manufacturing sectors over the period 1988–2003. We find that tariff reductions have stimulated labour productivity when instrumented by multilateral tariffs. The ordinary least‐squares estimates show downward bias and this confirms the endogeneity of tariffs. Investigation of channels of effects shows some support for the importance of competitive pressure and technology spillover from trade liberalization.     

The role of monetary policy credibility in explaining the decline in exchange rate pass-through in South Africa

This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades. The paper finds that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. The South African Reserve Bank has become more credible since the adoption of the inflation target regime through improved communication, transparency, and independence. We show that credibility is enhanced through a gradual disinflation process and reduction of inflation volatility. As result, expectations of agents have become well-anchored at levels that are consistent with its objectives of keeping inflation within the official target range of 3–6 percent even in the presence of external shocks. This in turn reduces the exchange rate pass-through. This finding is important from a monetary policy perspective not only for South Africa but other emerging economies such as Turkey as it shows that improving monetary policy credibility is a key ingredient to reducing exchange rate pass-through.