Paths of Development and Wage Variations

In analyzing the relationship between factor endowments and sectoral per capita output (the paths of development), it was shown empirically that the number of cones was neither one nor three but two, and that all countries fall into one of these two cones. This is a puzzle, because it is inconsistent with large wage variations across economies. This paper attempts to solve this puzzle, introducing complete and incomplete specialization into a multiple‐cone model. Empirical results reveal that the two‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model can be consistent with HO specialization and wage variations across economies.     

Industrial Upgrading in a Multiple‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin Model: The Flying Geese Patterns of Industrial Development

This paper examines empirically how the multiple‐cone version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model fits the “flying geese” patterns of industrial development: a series of industries appear, prosper, then decline and finally disappear one after another. Using Japanese manufacturing data from 1975 to 2006, the analysis shows that the multiple‐cone model fits well with the flying geese patterns of Japanese industrial development. The result suggests that part of the industrial upgrading can be explained by the multiple‐cone HO model. This also implies that an underlying mechanism of macroeconomic growth is industrial upgrading, part of which can be attributed to capital accumulation.     

International Trade and Volume Patterns under Quasilinear Preferences

We formally analyze the pattern and volume of trade by embedding quasilinear preferences in the standard perfectly competitive, two‐factor, two‐good, two‐country trade model. Quasilinear preferences deliver a natural partition of the two goods into a luxury and a necessity, and preserve the validity of the Heckscher–Ohlin and Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theorems. In addition, the predicted factor content of trade under quasilinear preferences is smaller (larger) than the predicted factor content of trade under homothetic preferences if and only if the luxury good is capital (labor) intensive. This result offers a novel explanation for the “missing‐trade” mystery.     

Factor Market Oligopsony and the Production Possibility Frontier

The authors consider a model with two final goods, one intermediate good, and two primary factors. One final good and the intermediate good are produced using primary factors, labor and capital. The other final good is produced using labor and the intermediate input. Producers of the second final good exert oligopsonistic market power on the intermediate input, which captures real world phenomena prevalent in the food processing and other manufacturing industries. If the capital/labor ratio in one final‐good sector is in between those of the intermediate‐input sector and the combined intermediate‐input and the other final‐product sectors, and if the oligopsony power is sufficiently large, the model generates results that are not adherent to the standard two‐sector Heckscher–Ohlin model. Results that deviate from the H–O model include the relationships between factor prices and commodity prices, the price–output effect, tangency between the price line and the PPF, and the curvature of the PPF.     

Trade,growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model

In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model—a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model—with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.     

Long‐run Specialization*

Constructing a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model, we examine long‐run specialization patterns in the presence of international technological differences. Even a slight difference in technology causes at least one country to specialize. Either the case of perfect specialization in both countries or the case of perfect specialization in one country and imperfect specialization in the other occurs, depending on the subjective discount rate, relative preference for two commodities, labor endowments, and technological conditions. A necessary and sufficient condition for each case to hold is provided. Structural differences between the Ricardian model and ours are also emphasized.     

Costly Factor Reallocation and Reduced Productivity Effects in International Trade

Most models of international trade assume extremes of factor mobility between productive uses. From perfectly mobile factors in the Heckscher–Ohlin model, to fixed capital and mobile labor in the Ricardo–Viner–Jones model, factors are assumed to move costlessly or not at all. In reality, factors are neither perfectly mobile nor fixed. This paper considers costs of reallocating factors between industries, deriving a measure of adjustment costs due to factor specificity in a two‐period model of a firm's input allocation decision. The degrees of specificity for labor and capital are then estimated based on data for 15 industries in 16 countries covering eight years. Estimating a system of nonlinear first‐order conditions using a three‐stage least squares technique, I find that recently reallocated factors are indeed less productive. Labor is 14% less productive in the period after reallocation, while capital productivity falls by 43%. Thereafter, capital, unlike labor, moves quickly toward full productivity.     

Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital*

This article develops a two‐country endogenous growth model with accumulation of both physical and human capital. We establish the existence of two‐country balanced growth equilibria with physical and human capital in which a static and dynamic version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) hypothesis hold true. We also show the existence of unbalanced growth equilibria in which the static and dynamic HO hypotheses can be violated. The multiplicity of paths with international trade emerge as a result of the intertemporal no‐arbitrage condition when factor prices are equalized across countries.     

Outsourcing and the Heckscher–Ohlin Model

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the currently mushrooming phenomenon of outsourcing into the standard two‐sector, two‐factor Heckscher–Ohlin model of international trade. We first show how outsourcing modifies a firm's production function, and then demonstrate that outsourcing generally raises the return to capital and lowers the real wage, although the nation's GDP rises in proportion to the value‐added in the outsourcing industry. Furthermore, the output of the outsourcing sector may actually fall even though its unit cost goes down; the output of the other sector then rises. By contrast, employment in the outsourcing sector may actually rise.     

Trade Openness,Corruption and Factor Abundance: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel

Using the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson–Vanek (HOSV) framework, this paper illustrates a relationship between corruption and the pattern of international trade that depends on the factor endowments of countries. The relationship between trade openness and corruption is empirically investigated by using a panel dataset on trade openness, corruption and capital–labor ratio, and applying estimation techniques developed for dynamic panels. The regression results provide strong support to the hypothesis that the effect of corruption on trade openness depends on relative factor abundance.     

Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin Model with Land

Convergence among nations that share the same preferences and technologies is a key result of the closed‐economy neoclassical growth framework that has received substantial support in the data. However, Heckscher–Ohlin versions of the two‐sector neoclassical growth model predict that nations that differ in their capital–labor ratios may not converge to the same steady state, even if they are identical in all other aspects. This is a puzzling result that warns us about potential dangers of international trade. In this paper we show that when land, an input in fixed supply, is introduced into the model, international trade in goods no longer limits the capacity of poor nations to catch up with the advanced world.     

DUALITY WITH SECTOR‐SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES UNDER SOCIAL CONSTANT RETURNS*

We develop dual approaches to quantity and price relationships of production in a general multisectoral model with sector‐specific externalities. The production of each good exhibits socially constant returns to scale but privately decreasing returns. We find that the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem holds for factor intensity ranking from the social perspective and that the Rybczynski theorem holds for factor intensity ranking from the private perspective. The price‐output dual fails to hold in general. Moreover, we re‐establish the Heckscher‐Ohlin theorem in the two‐sector case, as well as the factor endowment–factor price and price‐output comparative statics in the high‐dimension case under proper conditions.     

Industrial Targeting and Non‐shiftable Capital in the Harris–Todaro Model*

This paper shows that, in the 2 × 3 sector‐specific capital Harris–Todaro model, capital growth owing to either domestic or foreign investment always enhances the welfare of the country (i.e. non‐immiserizing), and this result of non‐immiserizing foreign investment holds regardless of initial holdings of foreign capital; the policy of industrial targeting via capital investment is more effective vis‐à‐vis the (neoclassical) 2 × 2 mobile‐capital Harris–Todaro model or the Heckscher–Ohlin model; in contrast to the recent generalization by Marjit and Beladi (2003 ), capital growth cannot be immiserizing in the present model, even if it destroys the “envelope theorem.”     

Can Rich Countries Become Pollution Havens?*

This paper bridges the gap between two‐country Ricardian trade models where differences in environmental policies create pollution havens in a poorer region with weaker pollution regulations, and 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin models that predict under certain conditions that pollution havens may occur in a richer region with tighter regulations. By relaxing the Heckscher–Ohlin assumptions of factor price equalization and no specialization, we show how creation of pollution havens in either region is possible, due to the interplay of policy and factor‐endowment motives. We also analyze the conditions for creating pollution havens in the cases of exogenous and endogenous environmental policy.     

How ‘Little’ Outsourcing Creates A Large Skill Premium: A Model of North‐to‐South Manufacturing Outsourcing

This paper develops a general equilibrium model that shows that a small volume of North–South ¹ trade (i.e. 2% of Northern GDP) could have caused the observed rise in the skill premium, thus resolving the ‘small trade volume paradox’ in the skill premium debate. We apply the concept of ‘trade in tasks’ of Grossman and Rossi‐Hansberg to analyze the nature of North‐to‐South manufacturing outsourcing. As a conceptual innovation, we carefully distinguish two different implicit assumptions of the Heckscher–Ohlin model: ‘factor immobility’ versus ‘task inseparability’. We show that outsourcing, as a form of trade in tasks, essentially attains ‘task separability’ while apparently retaining factor immobility, thus rendering the traditional Heckscher–Ohlin framework obsolete for analyzing current North–South trade. We argue that this change in the nature of trade calls for new thinking in economics and public policy‐making.     

A New Dynamic Trade Model of Increasing Returns and Monopolistic Competition

This paper formulates a two‐country by two‐factor by two‐good dynamic Chamberlin–Heckscher–Ohlin model of international trade with endogenous time preferences. After proving the existence, uniqueness and local saddle‐point stability of the steady state, we examine the relationship between initial factor endowment and trade patterns in the steady state. It will be shown that (i) given that the representative household in each country supplies an equal amount of labor, only intra‐industry trade occurs in the steady state and (ii) other things being equal, the country with higher labor efficiency becomes the net exporter of the labor‐intensive good.     

Estimating the Heckscher–Ohlin model: Inverting the inverse matrix

This paper estimates the Heckscher–Ohlin model with annual US data from 1949 to 2006 for outputs of manufactures and services with inputs of fixed capital assets and the labor force. Difference equation and error correction regressions provide estimated coefficients for the comparative static system. Tariffs on manufactures primarily raise the capital return in the estimated Stolper–Samuelson results. Factor price equalization does not hold for labor and capital. Inverting the estimated system inverse matrix provides evidence on production. The suggestions are capital biased production of manufactures, strong substitution of capital for labor, and strong labor substitution in manufactures.     

Fiscal Spending,Relative‐Price Dynamics,and Welfare in a World Economy*

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model where foreign asset holdings and capital accumulation are independently determined by optimizing agents. Each country has two production sectors, both of whose products are used for consumption, and an investment sector, which uses one of the two commodities to accumulate real capital. In this setting we examine the effects of fiscal spending on the equilibrium paths of interest rates and prices and each country's lifetime utility. The welfare effect is found to consist of the static terms‐of‐trade effect, the dynamic foreign asset effect and the direct income‐loss effect.     

Trade theorems with search unemployment

Abstract We revisit the Heckscher‐Ohlin‐Samuelson model in the presence of labour market frictions à la Mortensen‐Pissarides. Relaxing the assumption of the one‐worker‐one‐firm matching rule, we show that the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem and the Rybczynski theorem may not hold in specific circumstances. We also demonstrate that the Factor Price Equalization theorem is valid only for capital and unemployed labour across countries, but not for employed labour. In equilibrium, trade patterns are determined by countries’ factor endowments and relative factor intensities in sectors (independent of factor intensities in production). Finally, our results suggest an additional explanation for the ‘missing trade’ phenomenon.     

Testing the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theory with a natural experiment

I use the historical episode of near‐elimination of commuting from the West Bank into Israel to test three key predictions of the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek model of trade and find strong support for them. On the production side, I use variation between districts and find that wage changes were not correlated with the size of the shock to the labour force (factor price insensitivity) and that districts that received larger influx of returning commuters shifted production more towards labour‐intensive industries (Rybczynski effect). On the consumption side, data are consistent with identical homothetic preferences, which, combined with the production results, supports the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theorem on the factor content of trade.