Exporting to fragile states in Africa: Firm‐level evidence

This study analyses the effect of fragility in destination markets on firm export behavior and the role of firm size in mediating adverse outcomes. The analysis is conducted using firm transaction data on Kenyan exports to Africa over the period 2004–2013. The analysis reveals that fragility negatively affects a firm's decision to enter a given destination market, reducing Kenya's bilateral trade flows to African countries. Larger firms are more resilient to destination shocks in fragility and are less likely to exit. These results are robust to alternative measures of destination fragility, and the exclusion of bordering countries and the East African Community partner states. Our analysis reveals that the effect of business fragility (regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and control of corruption) dominates that of political fragility (voice and accountability, rule of law, and political stability), although both effects are negative and significant.     

Entrepreneurship in post‐conflict transition1

We examine new self‐employment entry and its viability in Bosnia and Herzegovina, using a rich household survey for the years 2001–2004. We find that wealthier households are more likely to engage in viable self‐employment and create employment suggesting an important role for financing constraints. Specifically, although having an existing bank relationship is not significantly related to the entry decision, it is positively related to the survival for new entrepreneurs and their employment creation. We also find a non‐linear relationship between remittances and entry in that individuals not receiving remittances are more likely to enter self‐employment; but, if they do receive them, the likelihood of starting a business increases in the fraction of wealth received from domestic remittances. Finally, people working in the informal sector are more likely to become viable entrepreneurs, particularly those provided with loans from micro‐credit organizations. These findings support the perception of the informal sector as an incubator for formal self‐employment in the early years of transition.     

Post‐conflict stabilization in Africa

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success     

Costs of civil war and fragile states in Africa

This paper provides an analysis of the costs of conflict for the countries that are most affected by it, namely low‐income and fragile countries in Africa. It provides an analysis of the impact of conflict on economic growth using a panel of African countries and investigates the differences between those categorized as fragile and others. It finds that there are significant differences, with fragile countries most affected by conflict. It also considers the potential spillover effects of conflict and finds that fragile states also suffer more from conflicts within neighboring states. Finally, it considers whether the results are robust to endogeneity of the conflict variable. Using instrumental variable estimation confirms the negative effect of conflict and the larger effects on fragile states and gives even larger coefficient estimates.     

Firm Investment decisions in the post‐conflict context

Economic and political transition can occur through peaceful or violent means. Violent transition disrupts the incentive for firms to make productive investments. This paper studies the determinants of profit reinvestment for firms in post‐conflict transition economies. Results indicate that while access to finance is an important determinant of reinvestment during transition, it is not as important in the post‐conflict context. However, property rights protections, in particular institutions of contract enforcement, are a more important determinant of profit reinvestment for firms operating in the post‐conflict environment than for firms in general. This indicates that obstacles to investment are context specific.     

The anatomy of fragile states in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Understanding the interrelationship between fragility and indicators of wellbeing

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive.     

Demographic change,human capital accumulation and R&D‐based growth

Employing an overlapping generations model of R&D‐based growth with endogenous fertility and education decisions, we examine how demographic changes induced by an increase in life expectancy influence the long‐run growth rate of the economy. We demonstrate that life expectancy, when relatively low (high), positively (negatively) affects economic growth. This paper also compares the growth implications of child education subsidy policies (i.e., policies for enhancing basic education) and child rearing subsidy policies (i.e., pro‐natal policies) and demonstrate that while the child education subsidies consistently foster economic growth, child rearing subsidies may negatively affect economic growth.     

Entrepreneurs' capital accumulation behavior and long-run equilibrium

The purpose of this paper is to derive some interesting results on long-run equilibrium by considering entrepreneurs' capital accumulation behavior explicitly. Our framework is a two class, two production sector model in order to analyze the dynamic stability properties in the cases of Kaldor's saving assumption and Pasinetti's saving assumption. We shall introduce a further adjustment mechanism: the speeding up (slowing down) of capital accumulation in that sector in which the rate of profit is higher (lower).     

Human capital accumulation in R&D-based growth models

This paper develops a model that reproduces the essential aspects of the recent ICT-based economy using the framework of endogenous growth theory in which a central role is played by human capital accumulation. In particular, it considers a multi-sectoral growth model in discrete time with infinite horizon, endogenous growth, embodied technological progress, horizontal differentiation and “lab-equipment” specification of R&D, and with human capital accumulation (represented by the fact that households devote a fraction of their time to schooling), in order to take into account the crucial role of the latter when new technologies are present. In this model it is possible to obtain some important results, both analytically and through simulations, either in the case of constant productivity of schooling and in the case in which this productivity is a function of technological progress. The first conclusion is that the productivity of schooling affects the long run growth of the economy, contrary to the productivities of the other sectors, hence in this model human capital accumulation is the true engine of growth. It is then possible to study the reaction of the economy to different types of shocks, and to compare the results with the empirical evidence. The conclusion is that the model is able to reproduce such evidence, suggesting that the interaction between ICT and human capital is one of the drivers of the recent economic performance.     

Political turnover and the accumulation of democratic capital

Certain democratic institutions tend to persist in some countries whereas they are frequently reversed in others. Focusing on strong constraints on executive power as one such institution, this paper theoretically studies the cross-country differences in the costs of relaxing these constraints. The model features two political parties that stochastically alternate in office according to a political uncertainty parameter. In each period, the incumbent can make reversible investments into the future government's ability to reform executive constraints. The main results indicate that more competitive elections and higher degrees of policy polarization between the political parties lead to high and persistent levels of investment into the society's stock of “democratic capital”. These higher costs of institutional reform in turn result in durable strong executive constraint-regimes.     

Estimating the benefit of high school for university‐bound students: evidence of subject‐specific human capital accumulation

Numerous studies suggest that the value of high school education is large for potential dropouts, yet we know much less about the benefits for students who will go on to post‐secondary education. To help fill this gap I measure, using a recent Ontario high school reform, the value‐added (in terms of university grades) of an extra year of high‐school mathematics for university‐bound students. The estimated benefit is small for these students: 2.3 points on a 100‐point scale. This evidence helps to explain why the literature has found only modest effects of taking more mathematics in high school on wages.     

A local analysis of stability and regularity of stationary states in discrete symmetric optimal capital accumulation models

In discrete time optimal capital accumulation models, where the period utilities have a certain “symmetry” property, a complete characterization of local stability of stationary states is obtained in terms of the characteristic roots of the product of certain submatrices of the Hessian of the utility function. This is used to analyze the connection between stability and properties of the effects of parameter changes on the stationary state. Certain differences in the results in discrete and continuous models are noted. A special case where utilities are “separable” in initial stocks and net investment is also treated.     

Inequality,growth, and environmental quality trade‐offs in a model with human capital accumulation

This paper develops a simple endogenous growth model where pollution exposure and vulnerability are unequally spread across the population, and growth and distribution are endogenous. In this set‐up, we investigate whether trade‐offs between growth, distributional, and environmental concerns may emerge. We show that a tighter environmental policy reduces income inequality and can improve both growth and total welfare. Immediate welfare losses, though, do occur, and are larger for countries that start at low levels of environmental quality (e.g. developing countries).     

Handle with care: fragile states and the determinants of fragility

The international community has grave concerns over the capacity of so-called ‘fragile states’ to effectively deliver basic services to their people due to their weak policy and institutional environments. This article examines the drivers of state fragility. The World Bank and OECD definitions of fragility are adopted using the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) scores. Analysis is conducted on both binary measures of fragility and the actual CPIA scores using an array of estimation techniques. Findings indicate that democracy, income levels, economic growth, levels of education, country size and natural resource rents are important determinants of fragility. Unlike other studies, findings also suggest that being a Small Island Development State is a primary driver of fragility.     

Labor productivity growth: disentangling technology and capital accumulation

How much of the convergence in labor productivity that we observe in manufacturing is due to convergence in technology versus convergence in capital-labor ratios? To shed light on this question, we introduce a nonparametric counterfactual decomposition of labor productivity growth into growth of the capital-labor ratio (K/L), technological productivity (TEP) and total factor productivity (TFP). Our nonparametric specification enables us to model technology allowing for heterogeneity across all relevant dimensions (i.e. countries, sectors and time). Using data spanning from the 1960s to the 2000s, covering 42 OECD and non OECD countries across 11 manufacturing sectors, we find TEP and TFP to account for roughly 46 and ?6% of labor productivity growth respectively, on average. While technological growth at the world level is driven primarily by the US and a handful of other OECD countries, we find strong evidence of convergence in both technology and capital-labor ratios. Interestingly, very few of the usual growth determinants are found to enhance the process of technological catching-up.     

Indian residential schools: Height and body mass post‐1930

We study the effects of Canadian Indian residential schooling on two anthropometric measures of health during childhood: adult height and body weight. We use repeated cross‐sectional data from the 1991 and 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey and leverage detailed historical data on school closures and location to make causal inferences. We find evidence that, on average, residential schooling increases adult height and the likelihood of a healthy adult body weight for those who attended. These effects are concentrated after the 1950s, when the schools were subject to tighter health regulations and students were selected to attend residential school based partly on their need for medical care that was otherwise unavailable. Residential schooling is only one policy in Canada that had an impact on the health of status First Nations peoples, so our results must be understood in the broader social context. Taken in context, our results suggest that health interventions in later childhood can have significant impacts on adult health. We also document significant increases in height and body weight for status peoples born after the 1960s, suggesting substantial changes in diet and living conditions during this period.     

Efficiency‐adjusted public capital,capital grants,and growth

A debate on whether capital grants, and especially European Union (EU) funds, actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This article empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991–2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency‐adjusted public capital stock series, which reflects the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the article illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.     

Human capital accumulation: Evidence from immigrants in low-income countries

This paper offers new evidence on the theory of human capital accumulation. The current findings in developed countries have documented that immigrants' earnings growth exceeds that of natives and that immigrants upgrade their occupations over time. Three possible explanations for these observations are suggested in the literature: 1) immigrants accumulate more human capital than natives, 2) immigrants are not able to fully transfer their skills, so over time, they restore the value of source-country human capital, and 3) immigrants are more productive than natives because they are positively selected on ability. This study investigates the labor market outcomes of immigrants in low-income countries and finds that immigrants earn more than comparable natives and work in better-paid occupations. Over time the gap in earnings and occupational distribution between immigrants and natives narrows. This observation is more consistent with the predictions of human capital accumulation theory than with skill transferability and selection theories.     

Mineral wealth and human capital accumulation: a nonparametric approach

This article uses a nonparametric approach to investigate the nexus between mineral wealth and human capital accumulation across countries. Higher mineral wealth is associated with elevated levels of human capital in a cross-section of countries. Matching the overall level of economic development and political instability and violence, weakens but does not reverse this conclusion. These results are economically significant. Moving up from the bottom to the top quartile for subsoil wealth per capita decreases illiteracy by ≈ 12% among young and adult females. Conversely, moving down from the top to the bottom quartile for subsoil wealth per capita decreases the average years of primary and total education by ≈ 1.5 years for females. Results are consistent with Hirschman's conjecture that enclave economies have weaker production linkages but stronger government revenue linkages than other activities. Most importantly, this article argues that caution should be exercised when discouraging countries from exploiting their mineral wealth, especially for countries where human capital is scarce.

I know, [there is] no safe depositary of the ultimate powers of society, but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.     

Credit quantity and credit quality: Bank competition and capital accumulation

In this paper we show that bank competition has an intrinsically ambiguous impact on capital accumulation. We further show that it is also responsible for the emergence of development traps in economies that otherwise would be characterized by unique equilibria. These results explain the conflicting evidence emerging from the recent empirical studies of the effects of bank competition on economic growth. We obtain them developing a dynamic, general equilibrium model of capital accumulation where banks operate in a Cournot oligopoly. More banks lead to a higher quantity of credit available to entrepreneurs, but also to diminished incentives to offer relationship services that improve the likelihood of success of investment projects. We also show that conditioning on one key parameter resolves the theoretical ambiguity: in economies where intrinsic market uncertainty is high (low), less (more) competition leads to higher capital accumulation.