Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective

The objective of this paper is to shed light on the twin deficit hypothesis in Southern Europe and the MENA region, taking into account fiscal spillovers from the core during the global crisis. Using Godley and Lavoie (2007)'s baseline model, we first show that fiscal shocks from a core region could aggravate macroeconomic imbalances in the periphery. We then gather data from the period 1977–2016 for ten MENA and peripheral EMU countries, and model the twin deficit hypothesis in the presence of fiscal spillover with a P-VARX methodology. Our results highlight that fiscal balance, current account, and GDP growth rates in the EMU's periphery are negatively affected by fiscal consolidations in the core. Fiscal discipline in surplus countries is tantamount to a ‘beggar thy neighbor’ effect on the periphery, in times of crisis. We discuss the implications of our results to propose further international coordination of macroeconomic policies.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

Abstract. This paper studies the design and effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the euro area. To do so, a stylized two‐region model of monetary and fiscal policy rules in the EMU is built. We analyse how monetary and fiscal rules affect the adjustment dynamics in the model. Both the effects on the individual countries and on the EMU aggregate economy are studied. Three aspects play an important role in the analysis: (i) the consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policy rules, (ii) the consequences of asymmetries between EMU countries (asymmetries in macroeconomic shocks and macroeconomic structures), and (iii) the role of alternative degrees of backward‐ and forward‐looking behaviour in consumer decisions and inflation expectations.     

Fiscal Stabilization in the EMU

This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) using a stylized two-country model. First, it is shown how asymmetries between countries might matter in terms of the resulting business cycle fluctuations. More specifically, country-specific shocks are allowed for as well as cross-national differences in wage behavior. Second, it is shown by means of numerical simulations how national and federal fiscal stabilization policies can be used to dampen business cycle fluctuations in various (a)symmetric settings. The main innovation of the paper is to illustrate how structural differences between countries help to determine the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.     

The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference?

Economic and monetary union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union implies that member states had to transfer or at least curtail their policy autonomy in several areas, such as monetary policy and fiscal policy. The paper shows that EMU has helped reduce the impact of political shocks on the domestic economy of member states but magnified the transmission of political shocks within the euro area. Equally importantly, economies with weak domestic policies and institutions exhibited a significantly higher sensitivity to domestic political shocks before EMU, but not thereafter. While this may entail that EMU has brought benefits to countries with weaker policies and institutions by insulating them from adverse political developments at home, a potential drawback is that it may provide weaker market discipline for domestic political stability.
— Marcel Fratzscher and Livio Stracca     

External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area

Most studies of business cycle synchronization in the EMU identify a core set of counties with high synchronization and a periphery set of countries with low synchronization. Using a structural VAR with model uncertainty, we identify spillover effects from shocks that originate in the United States, the EMU, and the rest of the world to test whether external influences can explain the existence of the core and periphery. Most countries typically found in the core respond to external spillovers in similar ways, leading to more synchronized business cycles. The response to external influences in the countries traditionally found in the periphery, on the other hand, help explain their exclusion from the core.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

Economic growth,volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries

This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2–2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.     

Cross-country fiscal policy spillovers and capital-skill complementarity in integrated capital markets

The 2010 European sovereign debt crisis has renewed discussions on fiscal policy coordination. One rationale for coordination is fiscal policy cross-country spillovers. A common finding in the literature is that spillovers tend to be small in normal circumstances but can be large if monetary policy is at the zero lower bound. Orthogonal to the existing literature, we document a novel channel that generates cross-country spillovers over the medium run. We assume perfect capital markets integration and find that capital-skill complementarity can lead to large spillovers without the zero lower bound nor a large import share in government expenditures. As capital markets have become increasingly integrated in the Eurozone, the current degree of fiscal policy coordination between its members, low, may be insufficient. We also find that the smoothing benefits from a temporary rise in public debt spill over to other countries.     

Wage Rigidity, Monetary Integration and Fiscal Stabilization in Europe

Flexibility in fiscal policy is a necessary ingredient in a policy package for EMU. Even with strong endogenous shock absorbers, such as real wage flexibility, fiscal policy can speed up the stabilization process in response to demand shocks. If real wages are rigid, as they typically are in Europe, fiscal policy cannot remove the adverse effects of asymmetric supply shocks, but it can successfully limit the divergence between member states. Monetary flexibility, a possible option in the run-up to EMU, cannot completely make up for the stabilization function of fiscal policy.     

Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility, and Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel of 11 EMU and 21 OECD countries and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe

Under EMU, monetary policy is oriented toward the euro area as a whole and fiscal policy is an important instrument remaining in the hands of national governments to cushion economic shocks to individual countries. The current paper analyses the cyclical pattern of public finances in Europe and addresses the question of whether fiscal policies have been geared towards this stabilising role. Although taxes fluctuate countercyclically in a conventional manner, we find that discretionary measures have tended to undermine automatic stabilisers. On the expenditure side, we find that public investment also displays a consistent procyclical pattern. Dynamic analysis reveals that a permanent shock to output induces asynchronous fluctuations in taxes and expenditures in the year of the shock and in periods thereafter. Finally, we examine political and institutional factors. The political fragmentation of the government as well as the partisan hue of the government do not interfere with the cyclical response of public finances, but we do find evidence of a pronounced electoral cycle.     

EMU-related news and financial markets in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values. Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)-related political and fiscal news is captured as news dummies. Macroeconomic shocks significantly affect short-term interest rates and, to a lesser extent, other financial variables. Political and fiscal news has an impact on long-term bond yields and exchange rates. News displayed prominently in our media sources has a greater impact on financial markets than other news and, in addition, the sources of news themselves matter. We also discover asymmetric effects of news within markets. Finally, using a pooled GARCH model we find that macroeconomic shocks have the strongest impact on financial markets in Hungary, while political news has the largest influence in both Hungary and Poland.     

International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s

This article considers the evolution of international business cycle interdependencies among 27 developed and developing countries since the beginning of 1870s, utilizing the generalized vector autoregressive (VAR)-based spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), which allows the construction of a time-varying measure of business cycle spillovers. We find that, on average, 65% of the forecast error variance of the 27 countries’ business cycle shocks is due to international spillovers. However, the magnitude of international business cycle spillovers varies considerably over time. There is a clear increasing trend since the end of World War II and until the mid-1980s. After that, international business cycle interdependencies declined during the period that was dubbed the Great Moderation and stabilized around the beginning of the twenty-first century. During the Great Recession of 2008–2009, international business cycle spillovers increased to unprecedented levels. Finally, developed countries are consistently ranked as net transmitters of cyclical shocks to developing counties throughout the sample.     

Has the Euro changed the business cycle?

In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the Euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a considerable increase in cross-country correlations. To account for this finding, we develop a two-country business cycle model which is able to replicate key features of European data. In particular, the model correctly predicts a limited effect of EMU on standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals that the Euro has changed the nature of the cycle through its impact on the transmission mechanism. Cross-country spillovers have become relatively more, domestic shocks relatively less important in accounting for economic fluctuations under EMU. This explains why there is little change in unconditional volatilities.     

Fiscal Policy to Stabilise the Domestic Economy in the EMU: What Can We Learn from Monetary Policy?

An important issue for the EMU countries is to what extent fiscalpolicy can be used to stabilise the domestic economy in thecase of asymmetric macroeconomic shocks. The paper reviews possiblereforms of national fiscal policy institutions in order to promoteefficient fiscal stabilisation policy: (i) the introductionof a more transparent legal framework for the government's stabilisationdecisions; (ii) the establishment of an independent advisoryFiscal Policy Council; and (iii) the delegation of actual stabilisationdecisions to an independent Fiscal Policy Committee. The conclusionis that the Fiscal Policy Committee solution has much to speakfor itself. It seems possible to delegate fiscal stabilisationpolicy decisions, in much the same way as monetary policy hasbeen delegated to central banks, at the same time as fiscalpolicy decisions focusing on income distribution and socialefficiency are kept in the political sphere. Such delegationcan be made compatible with democratic accountability. (JELE61, E63, P16)     

Thoughts on a Fiscal Union in EMU

Using an estimated large‐scale New Keynesian model, we assess the consequences of introducing a fiscal union within EMU. We differentiate between three different scenarios: public revenue equalisation, tax harmonisation and a centralised fiscal authority. Our results indicate that no country would significantly benefit from introducing any form of fiscal union. Comparing long‐term, that is, steady state, effects we have winners and losers depending on the scenario. Differences in terms of business cycle statistics as well as in terms of risk sharing of asymmetric shocks are minor. This also explains why welfare differences are small across the fiscal union scenarios. A counterfactual exercise indicates that with a fiscal union regime already installed at the start of EMU, key macroeconomic variables would have reacted very similarly while debt dynamics would have changed notably.     

Monetary union with sticky prices and direct spillover channels

This paper derives a sticky-price, forward-looking model of a monetary union (MU) of two countries, with trade across countries and immobile labour. Contrasting to the existing literature, the resulting laws-of-motion do not resort to spillovers via aggregate, union-wide magnitudes but instead feature direct impact of the output gap of the respective other country, and indirect impact of price dynamics via the the consumer price indices (CPIs). Further, the paper analyses the equilibrium dynamics of a variant of the model under various exogenous shocks, most prominently, idiosyncratic shocks to cover diverging developments of the different regions of an MU. A numerical analysis of the parameter calibration for saddlepath-stable behaviour is provided. I find i.a. that idiosyncratic shocks result in heavily oscillating behaviour due to unsynchronised spillovers and reactions of the central bank.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices using a panel vector auto‐regressive (PVAR) approach and quarterly data for ten industrialized countries. We find that positive fiscal shocks lead to a temporary fall in stock prices and a gradual and persistent decrease in housing prices. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding‐out effects and the deterioration of credit conditions; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) a more persistent response of asset prices for countries with a lower degree of openness; (iv) a larger impact of fiscal policy on asset prices for small countries; (v) a close link between the responsiveness of asset prices to fiscal policy and the government’s size; (vi) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization; and (vii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.     

The role of global financial conditions for credit supply in EMU periphery countries

The article analyses the role of global financial conditions for credit supply and growth performance in individual member states of the European Monetary Union (EMU). In line with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, we find that in the short run, the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate policy compensate for changes in global risk assessment thereby supporting net private credit flows to the European periphery. However, in later periods, a worsened risk sentiment weighs on credit flows to these countries. In contrast, EMU core countries are generally less affected by global financial shocks. This asymmetric influence of global conditions on EMU member states are smoothed by the uniform access of commercial banks to the Eurosystem’s open market operations in conjunction with the redistribution of liquidity via the TARGET mechanism.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.