Estimating labour market transitions and continuations using repeated cross sectional data

This paper proposes a population cohort approach for estimating labour market continuations (or transitions) using repeated cross sectional data. This approach allows for the construction of consistent standard errors that account for the full variability of cross sectional data.     

Estimating the market value of Steve Jobs using an event study

Using an event study approach, we seek to estimate the value investors placed on Steve Jobs by investigating the stock market reactions to his death. In the three-day window surrounding his death, the estimated cumulative abnormal returns are ?5.76%. Given the market capitalization of Apple at the time, it can be inferred that investors valued Steve Jobs at 20 billion dollars. While tragic, the news about Jobs’ death is greeted favourably by Apple’s competitors. The competitors appear to be convinced that, without Steve Jobs, they can compete with Apple better.     

Endogenous market power

In this paper we develop a framework to study markets with heterogeneous atomic traders. The competitive model is augmented as we provide traders with correct beliefs about their price impacts to define equilibrium with endogenously determined market power and show that such equilibrium exists in economies with smooth utility and cost functions and is generically determinate. Traders? price impacts depend positively on the convexity of preferences or cost functions of the trading partners and are subject to mutual reinforcement. Compared to the competitive model, the volume of trade is reduced, and hence is Pareto inefficient. The price effects of non-competitive trading depend on the convexity of marginal utility or cost function.     

The explanatory power of the market model: an international comparison

The various published studies of the market model and the capital asset pricing model are examined, with the objective of seeing if any pattern emerges in terms of its explanatory power (r ²), and the various circumstances specific to each study. Several factors are identified as being associated with high values of r ²in these studies.     

Design and regulation of balancing power auctions: an integrated market model approach

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We present an integrated market model which considers the dependencies between the wholesale market and the highly regulated balancing power markets. This fosters...     

A testing of the purchasing power parity hypothesis using a vector autoregressive model

The paper examines the hypothesis of purchasing power parity relations and the hypothesis of interest rates parity relations between the Japanese yen and the US dollar in a four-dimensional VAR (4-VAR) model, using the statistical technique developed by Johansen and Juselius (1992). The paper demonstrates that the so-called symmetry restriction on the PPP relationship holds not in a 3-VAR model but in the 4-VAR model, which indicates that a correct specification of the sampling distribution of data is important. The interest rates parity relation also holds in the 4-VAR model. The one-step prediction based on the ECM representation with such long-run relations outperforms the random walk model. These results are similar to those under the exchange rate control period (January 1974 to December 1980), which support the inclusion of this period in a whole sample period (January 1974 to December 2001).The author is very grateful to the referees and the editor of the journal for their variable and helpful comments. The first draft of the paper was presented at the autumn meeting of Japan Society of Monetary Economics in Oct 1999. The author is thankful to Eiji Ogawa for his helpful comments. The research was supported by Grant-in-Aid 13630104 of the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture of Japan and the Nomura Foundation for Social Science in 2000.First version received: March 2001/Final version received: April 2003     

Estimating the geographic diffusion of the videocassette recorder market

The majority of studies concerning diffusion or product growth of consumer durables have treated the U.S. market as a whole and have applied the diffusion model on the assumption that the market exhibits a homogeneous response in its diffusion process. If the market is heterogeneous, however, an aggregate model entails a misspecification problem which could adversely affect the applicability and efficiency of the model. A modeling framework is developed for analyzing the diffusion process in a possibly heterogeneous market. Empirical analysis using data on the videocassette recorder (VCR) market reveals that the modeling framework captures to a fair extent heterogeneous diffusion processes across different regions in the U.S. market. Managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

Firm-specific cost savings and market power

Summary. We report a policy experiment that illustrates a potential problem of using historical pass-through rates as a means of predicting the competitive consequences of projected firm-specific cost savings in antitrust contexts, particularly in merger analysis. The effects of cost savings on welfare can vary vastly, depending on how the savings affect the industry supply schedule. In a capacity-constrained price-setting oligopoly, we observe that cost savings can overwhelm behaviorally salient market power incentives when the savings affect marginal (high cost) units. However, cost savings of the same magnitude on an infra-marginal unit leave market power unchanged.     

Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model

Summary. We consider a monetary growth model essentially identical to that of Diamond (1965) and Tirole (1985), except that we explicitly model credit markets, a credit market friction, and an allocative function for financial intermediaries. These changes yield substantially different results than those obtained in more standard models. In particular, if any monetary steady state equilibria exist, there are generally two of them; one of these has a low capital stock and output level, and it is necessarily a saddle. The other steady state has a high capital stock and output level; either it is necessarily a sink, or its stability properties depend on the rate of money creation. It follows that monetary equilibria can be indeterminate, and nonconvergence phenomena can be observed. Increases in the rate of money creation reduce the capital stock in the high-capital-stock steady state. If the high-capital-stock steady state is not a sink for all rates of money growth, then increases in the rate of money growth can induce a Hopf bifurcation. Hence dynamical equilibria can display damped oscillation as a steady state equilibrium is approached, and limit cycles can be observed as well. In addition, in the latter case, high enough rates of inflation induce the kinds of “crises” noted by Bruno and Easterly (1995): when inflation is too high there are no equilibrium paths approaching the high-activity steady state. Received: November 18, 1995; revised version: March 26, 1996     

A simple model of a speculative housing market

We develop a simple model of a speculative housing market in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Guided by empirical evidence, agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. As it turns out, the dynamics of our model is driven by a two-dimensional nonlinear map which may display irregular boom and bust housing price cycles, as repeatedly observed in many actual markets. Complex interactions between real and speculative forces play a key role in such dynamic developments.     

A market mechanism for electric power transmission

As competition is introduced into the electric power industry, access and pricing policy for transmission will play a pivotal role in shaping future market structure and performance. The externalities associated with the loop flow phenomenon in an electric power network constitute a significant barrier to the formation of efficient markets for electricity and transmission services. In this paper, we present a new approach to the design of an efficient market mechanism for transmission access that resolves these externalities. Under a trading rule that combines the Coasian and the Pigouvian principles to resolution of externalities, property rights are defined so that a competitive market could be established for transmission services and electricity to achieve a social optimum within a power pool. We characterize a dynamic trading process which is Lyapunov stable and always converges to a competitive equilibrium. Finally, we discuss some practical applicability and long-term investment issues.The authors are indebted to Charles Clark, Shmuel Oren, Pravin Varaiya, Robert Wilson, Felix Wu, and two referees for helpful comments and suggestions and particularly to William Hogan for many incisive comments and constructive suggestions. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of International Association of Energy Economists in Washington D.C., June 20, 1995, and at the Joint LBS/IFORS International Symposium on Energy Models for Policy and Planning in London on July 18–20, 1995. This paper does not represent the views of EPRI or its members. The authors remain solely responsible for the errors in this paper.     

Downstream price-cap regulation and upstream market power

Under “partial separation,” it is increasingly common for a utility’s upstream affiliate (e.g., an electric generation supplier) to be unregulated while its downstream affiliate (e.g., the distribution company offering retail service) is subject to regulation. When choosing the optimal form of downstream regulation, regulators may be confronted with the potential exercise of market power by the upstream affiliate. This paper finds that the imposition of a downstream price cap with an appropriate profit-sharing rate can eliminate the upstream affiliate’s exercise of market power. However, it is less desirable to fully mitigate affiliate market power when upstream rivals also behave strategically.      

Organizational choices for efficiency and market power

We examine the role of strategic consideration in the choice of organizational structures characterizing large corporations. These considerations bridge the gap between the research on transaction costs and organizational forms and the research on strategic entry deterrence and threats. An illustrative model is presented and we derive propositions which look promising for providing empirical benchmarks.     

The power of market mood — Evidence from an emerging market

This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.     

Measuring market power when firms price discriminate

We propose conduct parameter-based market power measures within a model of price discrimination, extending work by Hazledine (Econ Lett 93:413–420, 2006) and Kutlu (Econ Lett 117:540–543, 2012) to certain forms of second-degree price discrimination. We use our model to estimate the market power of US airlines in a price discrimination environment. We find that a slightly modified version of our original theoretical measure is positively related to market concentration. Moreover, on average, market power for high-end segment is greater than that of low-end segment.     

Bringing computer power to the consumer market

Firms in m a y industrial sectors are seeking to capitalize on the promise of new information technology to generate new consumer products which can gain substantial markets. Where these are improved versions of familiar products, the marketing task is relatively easy, but many of the new product opportunities involve radically new types of consumer good and/or service. Drawing on studies of efforts to establish such radical innovations, this paper examines the problems that are confornted in attempting to define what sort of product is actually being created and how it may fit into consume life-styles. Though there is considerable discussion of these topics in industrial circles, it appears that until late stages of product development, little serious analysis of social issues is undertaken— if at all. Furthemore, such discussio of the nature and use of products are more intended to mobilize the group of actors who are needed to support the innovation than to feed substantial information about possible user reqquirements into the design process. The design process is much more liable to invorporate ideas derived from analysis of technological trends and the use of products in professional applications, than information derived from social scienc or market research.     

Bringing computer power to the consumer market

Firms in m a y industrial sectors are seeking to capitalize on the promise of new information technology to generate new consumer products which can gain substantial markets. Where these are improved versions of familiar products, the marketing task is relatively easy, but many of the new product opportunities involve radically new types of consumer good and/or service. Drawing on studies of efforts to establish such radical innovations, this paper examines the problems that are confornted in attempting to define what sort of product is actually being created and how it may fit into consume life-styles. Though there is considerable discussion of these topics in industrial circles, it appears that until late stages of product development, little serious analysis of social issues is undertaken— if at all. Furthemore, such discussio of the nature and use of products are more intended to mobilize the group of actors who are needed to support the innovation than to feed substantial information about possible user reqquirements into the design process. The design process is much more liable to invorporate ideas derived from analysis of technological trends and the use of products in professional applications, than information derived from social scienc or market research.