A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh

Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.     

Measurement of reciprocity in a village through social networks

This paper examines measuring of interdependency among households through their transactions by using information of individual villagers in a disadvantaged area in a developing country. To obtain the information, we created a village input–output table (VIOT) from household survey data conducted in a rural village in Lao PDR in 2015 and 2016. Because each household in the village is not only a producer but also a consumer who is trading products and consuming them, the VIOT is a simple but useful tool to know the economic transactions among villagers. The main findings are that four higher-income families, which mainly trade rice very frequently, are playing key roles in the village economy, and the interdependency among higher-income households is stronger than among lower/middle-income households. Additionally, this method can be used to form an economic policy such as poverty reduction because of informing households playing a key role in the village.     

Agriculture and development: A brief review of the literature

After 20 years of neglect by international donors, agriculture is now again in the headlines because high food prices are increasing food insecurity and poverty. In the coming years, it will be essential to increase food productivity and production in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and with smallholders. This, however, requires finding viable solutions to a number of complex technical, institutional, and policy issues, including land markets, research on seeds and inputs, agricultural extension, credit, rural infrastructure, connection to markets, rural non-farm employment, trade policy and food price stabilization. This paper reviews what the economic literature has to say on these topics. It discusses in turn the role played by agriculture in the development process and the interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors, the determinants of the Green Revolution and the foundations of agricultural growth, issues of income diversification by farmers, approaches to rural development, and issues of international trade policy and food security, which have been at the root of the crisis in agricultural commodity volatility in recent years.     

Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations

This paper attempts to understand how price volatility affects the political transition of a resource-rich nation. Two states reflect price volatility: ‘high prices’ and ‘low prices’. We argue that whether or not political transition (i.e., a switch from one regime to another) will take place in a particular state depends critically on the kind of goods a country produces. If the main economic activity in a country is the extraction of “point-source” resources such as oil that demands capital-intensive production, the opportunity cost of switching the existing regime does not alter if the price of the resource changes but the benefit becomes more lucrative. Therefore, the incumbent group is most vulnerable during ‘high prices’. If the main economic activity of the nations is the production of “diffused resources” such as coffee that requires labor, prices do affect the opportunity cost. Nations concentrating in these commodities face acute political crisis during downturns.     

Poverty and crime in 19th century Germany

We estimate the impact of poverty on crime in 19th century Bavaria, Germany. Rainfall is used as an instrumental variable for grain (rye) prices to address econometric identification problems in the existing literature. The rye price was a major determinant of living standards during this period. The rye price has a positive effect on property crime: a one standard deviation increased property crime by 8%. OLS estimates are twice as large as instrumental variable estimates, highlighting the value of our empirical approach. Higher rye prices lead to significantly less violent crime, though, and we argue that higher beer prices, caused by the higher rye prices, are a likely explanation.     

Prices and Regional Variation in Welfare

One would expect regional differences in prices to influence conclusions concerning levels and distributions of well-being. Although there is anecdotal evidence of significant price dispersion across regions, there is no governmental source of data that measures differences in price levels. In this paper I integrate estimates of regional prices with expenditure data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys to assess the influence of price differences on living standards in the United States. While prices have little effect on inequality, estimates of poverty and the standard of living change substantially with the inclusion of regional price variation.     

Supply-constrained fixed price equilibria in monetary economies

In this paper we consider an economy with restrictions on the relative prices of non-money commodities. The non-money commodities are partitioned into two groups, index makers and price following commodities. Then two cases are considered, namely that the relative prices of the index makers are fixed, respectively free. In both cases the money prices are flexible, whereas the relative prices of the price following commodities are tied to the prices of the index makers. The existence of a supply-constrained equilibrium is proved with (i) no rationing on the money commodities (stores of value), and (ii) at least one non-money commodity is not rationed. If prices of the index makers are fixed the result strengthens a theorem of Dehez and Drèze, if the prices are free a theorem of Kurz is strengthened. This paper is not only concerned with these existence results, but also with the question whether supply-constrained equilibria should appear more frequently than demand-constrained equilibria.     

城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场:资源与收入配置效应

本文对杭州市城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场的资源配置与收入配置效应进行了详细分析。研究发现,村庄外来劳动力比重对住房租赁市场的发育影响较大;家庭人均住房建筑面积与农户出租面积关系密切。住房租赁市场的发育提高了宅基地利用效率,并一定程度上促进了住房投资。住房出租的租金收入在农户家庭收入总额中已经占到了不小的份额,这意味着住房租赁市场的发育有利于农户家庭收入的提高。     

涨跌停板制度对期货市场价格发现过程及波动性的影响--基于上海期货交易所的实证研究

本文通过检验在出现涨跌停板之后一个交易日的期货价格及其波动性的变化情况，研究了涨跌停板制度对上海期货交易所期货价格变动的影响。研究结果显示，对不同的期货品种，涨跌停板制度的影响存在一定的差异，但总体而言，涨跌停板制度并没有起到防范价格过度反应和降低市场波动性的作用。相反，在一定程度上延缓了期货市场价格发现功能的发挥，增大了市场的波动性。     

Implications of Chinese Farmers in the Russian Far East

Chinese farmers are actively engaged in the economy of the Russian Far East. We used an econometric model to analyze panel data on the socioeconomic impact on local residents of Chinese farmers and workers in the Russian Far East (RFE). Proximity to Chinese farms and sales to Chinese retailers increases the well-being, the farm income, and the food costs of Russian rural households. The same factors raise land prices through increased competition, reduce the wages of Russian workers and the number of family members working on Russian farms, increase the number of full-time jobs for farm workers, lower yields of corn and wheat, and raise yields of potatoes and rice. Thus, the effects of the Chinese presence on rural Russian households varies with the makeup of the household, the amount of land it owns and leases, and the number of household members who work on other farms. Cooperation with Chinese farmers and retailers plays an important role in determining the ability of the rural areas of the RFE to develop sustainably.     

The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market A second look

I re-examine Mankiw-Weil's (MW) claim that house prices will fall 47% by 2007. MW argue that the arrival of the Baby Boom generation at adulthood drove up prices during the 1970s. When the beginnings of the Baby Bust generation matured in the 1980s, prices softened. When this generation arrives in earnest, prices will collapse. I make three points: (1) The regression upon which MW hang their prediction has an implausible -8.1% trend, which drives their prediction. (2) Demand directly influences the rental price; the asset price (MW's variable) is influenced by demand only indirectly. I re-run MW's regression, replacing the asset price with the rental price, and their prediction disappears. (3) Relying on data presented by MW, I show that housing consumption rose during the 1970s, after adjusting for income growth. Just when MW say the asset price of housing was rising, consumers behaved as if the price were falling. Consumers were right: The rental price fell by approximately 20% during the 1970s.     

Speculation in the Oil Market

The run‐up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price co‐movement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model. This method is motivated by the fact that a small‐scale vector autoregression is not informationally sufficient to identify the shocks. The main results are as follows. (i) While global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations, speculative shocks are the second most important driver. (ii) The increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008 and its subsequent collapse. (iii) The co‐movement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks. Our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农地确权、金融可得性与农户家庭贫困脆弱性

本文基于2013年和2015年中国家庭金融调查数据,应用双重差分方法考察新一轮农地确权对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的直接影响,结合中介效应模型和三重差分模型检验农地确权影响家庭贫困脆弱性的中介机制和调节机制。研究结果表明,农地确权能够降低农户家庭未来陷入贫困或持续贫困的概率,其间接路径是通过促进农户从事非农就业降低家庭贫困脆弱性。金融可得性在农地确权影响农户家庭贫困脆弱性中起到调节效应,金融可得性越高,农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用越大。对处于不同贫困脆弱状态的农户家庭而言,农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用存在差异。上述结论对通过土地产权制度改革推进持续巩固脱贫攻坚成果和相对贫困治理工作意义重大,并为评估新一轮农地确权政策提供了新思路。     

Distributional effects of imputed rents in five European countries

Most empirical distributional studies of well-being in developed countries rely on distributions of disposable income. From a theoretical point of view this practice is contentious since a household’s command over resources is determined not only by its spending power over commodities it can buy in the market but also on resources available to the household members through non-market mechanisms such as the in-kind provisions of the welfare state and the value of private non-cash incomes. In developed market economies the most important private non-cash income component is imputed rent from owner-occupied or subsidized accommodation. Employing a wider definition of imputed rent that also allows the analyst to capture income advantages among tenants living in rent-subsidized accommodations of various sorts (including rent-free or reduced-rent households), the present paper examines the differential effects of including imputed rents in the concept of resources in five European countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy and the UK). The results suggest that in almost all cases, the inclusion of imputed rents in the concept of resources leads to a decline in measured levels of inequality and poverty. The main beneficiaries are outright homeowners and households living in rent-free (or heavily subsidized) accommodation—most often older persons. The inclusion of imputed rents in the concept of resources does not lead to substantial changes in the ranking of the countries according to their level of inequality, despite widespread differences in the rates of home ownership and subsidization across the countries studied here.     

Relative prices and electronic substitution: Changes in household-level demand for postal delivery services from 1986 to 2004

This paper quantifies the extent to which the shift in the aggregate household-level demand for postal delivery services can be attributed to the appearance of alternative modes of communication versus the concomitant rise in postal prices. We find that both recent postal price increases and the penetration of personal computer technology among US households led to similar reductions in postal expenditure. We further find that a 5% postal price increase, such as the one introduced in January 2006 reduces revenue collected from US households by $215 million and imposes an aggregate welfare loss on US households of $333 million.     

Spatial differences in the cost of living

A method is described for constructing spatial indices of the cost of a basket of basic “requirements” of food and nonfood categories. The proposed index for nonfood items is built up from household expenditure, since their prices are unavailable in most developing countries. Using Peru as a case study, it is shown that the cost differences have significant implications for measures of real income and poverty across regions and between urban and rural areas.     

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC REFORM ON RURAL-URBAN WELFARE: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

This paper demonstrates how economic reform undertaken in a developing country will impact not only macroeconomic variables but also income distribution between different household groups, particularly between rural and urban households. Unlike the well-known link to macroeconomic variables, the path connecting economic reform with income of rural-urban households is more equivocal and thus demands an inquisition. The CGE model constructed in this study is designed to serve such a purpose. When applied to the Indonesian case, both the static and dynamic simulations indicate that the post-reform progress in the country's macroeconomic condition is likely accompanied by worsening—albeit slightly—household income distribution between income groups. The non agricultural sector appears to be the major beneficiary of the reform. From the dynamic simulation, a worsening distribution is also found between rural and urban areas. However, results of both simulations also show that improved poverty conditions are likely achieved following the reform.     

Price dynamics in public and private housing markets in Singapore

In down-payment constrained housing consumption models, increases in house prices could trigger household mobility decisions in housing markets. This study empirically tests house price dynamics associated with the mobility of households in the public resale and private housing markets in Singapore. The results show that stochastic permanent breaks were found in the public housing resale prices and private housing prices. The relative prices drift apart occasionally, but mean-revert to a long-run fundamental equilibrium. Error correction mechanisms and lagged public housing prices were also found to have significant explanatory effects for price changes in the private housing markets. The results support the hypothesis that household mobility creates co-movements of prices in public and private housing submarkets in the long run.     

农村专业大户电子商务技术采纳意愿影响因素研究

大力发展电子商务技术是更好解决“三农”问题,全面推进乡村振兴,促进农村产业兴旺,巩固脱贫攻坚成果的重要环节和抓手。本文以江西省240个农村专业大户为研究样本,运用结构方程模型对影响农村专业大户电子商务采纳行为的主要因素进行实证研究。结果表明:感知的有用性、感知的易用性、自我效能、网络外部性会对农村专业大户采纳电子商务技术产生影响,且均具有显著的正向作用。因此,必须从电子商务平台技术、农户自身认知和农村电子商务使用环境等方面加以引导,提供政策、资金、人才等方面的支持,以此来促进电子商务技术在农村地区的发展,推进乡村振兴战略的实施。     

Corporate hedging and input price risk

Input price variability is an important source of risk for corporations that process raw commodities. Models of optimal input hedging are developed in this paper based on the maximization of managerial expected utility. The relationship between hedging strategies and output decisions is examined to assess the impact of the ability to set output prices on futures market participation. As a firm's ability to set output prices diminishes in the short run, input futures positions increase although the optimal hedge ratio may either increase or decrease. For a perfectly competitive firm, however, shifts in output price caused by input price changes provide a natural cash market hedge of input price risk and reduce the firm's optimal input futures position.