小城镇环境保护指标体系与生态环境保护规划

由于我国小城镇规划在环境保护方面的局限性使其在发展过程中引发了一系列环境问题。本文在我国小城镇环境现状分析的基础上,指出了小城镇环境保护规划的主要内容,构建了小城镇环境保护指标体系建设的框架,并根据大气、水体、固体废物和声环境发展目标提出了小城镇环境保护的对策。     

中国区域经济发展的杠杆原理与棋局战略

探讨了中国区域经济发展战略的演化,指出其演化过程经历了均衡发展战略、非均衡发展战略和协调发展战略三个阶段。研究了中国空间经济区划的发展演变,并对目前中国空间经济区划进行了定位,在三大经济地带内划分出九大经济区,提出了中国空间经济区划的“三九”模式。以此为基础,分析了中国区域经济发展的极不平衡性及其引起的居民收入的巨大差异性,为解决这一重大课题,提出了中国区域经济发展的杠杆原理和棋局战略。这不仅为国家制定区域经济发展战略提供了科学依据,而且为中国区域经济研究提供了一种新视角、新理论、新方法。     

A model of repeat advertising

Advertising conveys information not only about product characteristics but also about the number of consumers who know about the product. More advertising may shift expectations towards a larger consumer base, increasing buyers' valuation when there are consumption externalities.     

Business cycles are alive and well

For the Federal Republic of Germany in the period of 1961–1978, ninety percent of the fluctuation in aggregate output about trends is explained by an inventory cycle of about four years and an equipment cycle of about seven years.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF UNCERTAINTY IN COORDINATION GAMES

Global games and Poisson games have been proposed to address equilibrium indeterminacy in Common Knowledge Coordination games. The present study investigates in a controlled setup, using as controls Common Knowledge games, whether idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals (Global games) or uncertainty about the number of actual players (Poisson games) may influence subjects' behavior. We find that uncertainty about the number of actual players has more influence on subjects' behavior than idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals. Furthermore, subjects' behavior under Poisson population‐size uncertainty is closer to the respective theoretical prediction than subjects' behavior under idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals.     

安全投入与企业安全生产最优决策

本文运用均衡方法与收入效应和替代效应工具构建了一个企业安全生产最优决策模型及其分析框架,对较低的工亡赔偿标准、安全资本投入不足与安全事故频发之间的内在关系及其机制给出了一个严谨的经济学解说,并通过对国内例证的考察,验证了其结论.文章发现:过低的工亡赔偿标准,在强化企业安全资本投入负激励的同时,又为其盲目增加产量而忽视安全风险提供了正激励,由此决定了20世纪90年代以来我国安全事故频发,死亡人数居高不下的局面;2004年我国提高了法定工亡赔偿标准,则从反向强化了其收入效应和替代效应,从而为企业增加安全资本投入和技术改进提供了正激励,由此决定了2004年以来的安全生产形势的持续好转.     

The influence of media use on layperson monetary policy knowledge in Germany

We analyse German citizens’ knowledge about monetary policy and the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as the public's use of mass communication media to obtain information about the ECB. We find that a person's own desire to be informed about the ECB, together with the use of various media channels to keep informed, are decisive for both (1) own perception of knowledge about the ECB and (2) actual level of knowledge. The media‐related influence varies with a person's level of education and is stronger for subjective knowledge. Women are significantly less interested in or knowledgeable about both topics.     

How much versus who: which social norms information is more effective?

We conduct an experiment to investigate how different types of information about social norms affect individuals’ stated contributions to a specific pro-environment program, a student ‘green fee’, in the context of a referendum. Compared to students that receive no information about peer contributions, on average, students that receive information about the dollar value range of contributions at peer institutions contribute less while students that learn about the high percentage of students voting ‘yes’ on green fee programs at peer institutions contribute more. The results are economically significant as the absolute values of both effects represent approximately 25% of average contributions. These results suggest that information about participation rates can be more effective than information about dollar amounts in encouraging contributions to environmental initiatives. Of interest to stated preference researchers, we find that results do not change when controlling for self-selection into survey completion.     

我国家族企业接班人选择现状分析

2005年中国私营企业调查报告显示,私营企业主平均年龄43.4岁,按照中国人的惯例,60岁是退休年龄,由此推算未来10年～20年将是家族企业交接班的高峰期。了解家族企业接班现状将有助于掌握家族企业接班情况,为家族企业平稳实现交接班过渡提供现实支持。     

Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters

This paper shows that—in contrast to the received wisdom—uncertainty about the parameters in a dynamic macroeconomic model may lead to more aggressive monetary policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it may be optimal for the central bank to respond to shocks more aggressively in order to reduce uncertainty about the future development of inflation. Uncertainty about other parameters, on the other hand, dampens the policy response.
JEL classification : E 43; E 52     

The importance of higher-order beliefs to successful coordination

Beliefs about other players’ strategies are crucial in determining outcomes for coordination games. If players are to coordinate on an efficient equilibrium, they must believe that others will coordinate with them. In many settings there is uncertainty about beliefs as well as strategies. Do people consider these “higher-order” beliefs (beliefs about beliefs) when making coordination decisions? I design a modified stag hunt experiment that allows me to identify how these higher-order beliefs and uncertainty about higher-order beliefs matter for coordination. Players prefer to invest especially when they believe that others are “optimistic” that they will invest; but knowledge that others think them unlikely to invest does not cause players to behave differently than when they do not know what their partners think about them. Thus resolving uncertainty about beliefs can result in marked efficiency gains.     

会计信息共享体系构建研究

在信息时代的背景下,在社会相关人员对会计人员信息需求日益增加的前提下,现行会计人员信息管理中存在的主要有会计人员的信用信息缺乏、会计人员信息无法集中处理、会计信息共享的保障措施落后等问题.从会计人员信息的取得和对会计人员信息的管理两方面,论述了如何建立统一的会计人员信息管理机构,运用现代化技术手段为相关人员提供及时、准确的会计人员基础信息和信用信息.     

Policy biases with voters’ uncertainty about the economy and the government

We model policy choices where parties competing for election are better informed than voters about the state of the economy. In addition voters are uncertain about the incumbent's preferences and the median voter's vote potentially depends on the state of the economy. The incumbent may bias his policy in order to convey information to the voters and raise his chance of reelection. The bias depends crucially on which kind of uncertainty is the most important. Uncertainty about preferences leads to moderate policies, while uncertainty about the state of the economy leads to extreme policies.     

The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration

How did the large asylum-seeker inflow to Germany in 2015 affect concerns about immigration? Using individual-level panel data for the years 2012–2018 and a policy that allocates asylum-seekers to districts, I identify the effect of exposure to asylum-seekers. In line with the contact hypothesis, living in a high refugee migration district reduced concerns about immigration by 3 pp. Alternatively, a 1 pp. increase in the share of asylum-seekers in the population reduced these concerns by 3.4 pp. The effect appears larger for right-leaning respondents and is driven by districts that do not host a large reception centre. However, the overall trend indicates that after 2015 concerns about immigration increased by about 21 pp. and support for extreme right-wing parties by about 1.7 pp. These trends show considerable heterogeneity for different demographic groups.     

基于石油供应单因素风险因子数学模型研究

本文在分析石油供应风险影响因素的基础上,通过建立预测石油供应风险因子的数学模型,利用这些数学模型对石油供应风险进行定量的研究,从深层次上认识石油供应风险因子的变化特点,为石油供应风险预警和有效地控制风险提供更多的信息支持.     

Information acquisition in auctions: Sealed bids vs. open bids

This paper studies the incentives of a bidder to acquire information in an auction when her information acquisition decision is observed by the other bidders before bidding. Our results show that the sealed bid (second price) auction may induce more information acquisition about a common component of the value than the open (English) auction but less about the private component of the value. Moreover, we show that more information about the private value and less information about the common value may improve efficiency and revenue. Consequently, our results suggest new arguments in favor of the open auction.     

Who knows it is a game? On strategic awareness and cognitive ability

We examine strategic awareness in experimental games, that is, the question of whether subjects realize they are playing a game and thus have to form beliefs about others’ actions. We conduct a beauty contest game and elicit measures of cognitive ability and beliefs about others’ cognitive ability. We show that the effect of cognitive ability is highly non-linear. Subjects below a certain threshold choose numbers in the whole interval and their behavior does not correlate with beliefs about others’ ability. In contrast, subjects who exceed the threshold avoid choices above 50 and react very sensitively to beliefs about the cognitive ability of others.     

习近平中国特色社会主义思想研究

习近平中国特色社会主义思想具有非常丰富的内涵,概括地说,高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜,坚定不移走中国特色社会主义道路,不走歪路和邪路,是习近平中国特色社会主义思想的核心和灵魂;坚定不移深化改革开放,是习近平中国特色社会主义思想的基本点;以人为本,关注和改善民生是习近平中国特色社会主义思想的主要宗旨;实现中华民族伟大复兴的"中国梦",是习近平中国特色社会主义思想的奋斗目标和崇高理想追求;坚定不移走和平发展道路,坚决捍卫国家核心利益是习近平中国特色社会主义外交的根本原则。习近平中国特色社会主义思想是对毛泽东思想和邓小平理论"、三个代表"重要思想与科学发展观等一系列重要思想的继承与发展,是马克思主义中国化的最新成果,是当代中国的马克思主义。     

MISINFORMATION*

A candidate for political office has private information about his and his rival’s qualifications. A more informative positive (negative) campaign generates a more accurate public signal about his own (his rival’s) qualifications, but costs more. A high type candidate has a comparative advantage in negative campaigns if, relative to the low type, he can lower the voter’s belief about his rival more effectively than he can raise her belief about himself and vice versa. In equilibrium, this comparative advantage determines whether the high type chooses a positive or negative campaign. Further, competition helps the high type separate.     

Information and College Access: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment*

High‐school students from disadvantaged high schools in Toronto were invited to take two surveys, about three weeks apart. Half of the students taking the first survey were also shown a three‐minute video about the benefits of post‐secondary education (PSE) and were invited to try out a financial‐aid calculator. Most students’ perceived returns to PSE were high, even among those not expecting to continue. Those exposed to the video, especially those initially unsure about their own educational attainment, reported significantly higher expected returns and lower concerns about costs, and expressed a greater likelihood of PSE attainment.