基于市盈率的我国股市泡沫分析

市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论，导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，说明我国股票市场上的投资者日趋成熟，投资行为日趋理性。     

合理市盈率测度模型之文献综述

研究一国股票市场的泡沫问题对于无论是监管部门还是投资者来说都具有非常重大的意义,而市盈率则是测量泡沫度的一个重要指标,因此建立合理市盈率的计算模型就显得尤为重要。笔者对涉及合理市盈率的三个主要测量模型(回归模型法、Gordon模型法、F-O模型法)的相关文献进行了归纳总结,对比不同模型的优势和不足,对于建立更有效的合理市盈率模型以期测度股市泡沫度具有重要的意义。     

中国A股市场泡沫实证研究

引言伴随着2007年国内证券市场A股平均市盈率接近40倍,一场关于中国股市泡沫的大讨论正在掀起。国内A股市场已经存在泡沫已经成为多数经济学家和业内人士的共识,但这一结论主要是依据市盈率这一标准作出的经验性判断,而缺乏更精确的实证分析。本文试图一方面通过以市盈率为主的泡沫度指标对中国大陆股市进行测算,另一方面引入理性泡沫概念,用计量方法对股市泡沫进行实证研究。一、文献综述目前,国内对股市泡沫的研究主要分为两类:第一类是泡沫度指标的测算。主要采用的指标有:P/E市盈率;股票市值增长率/名义GDP增长率;股票市场价格与真实价值的差额等。这些测度方法比较简便易行,但最大的问题是如何确定基本价值,而这没有一个公认的统一标准,对泡沫临界值的设定完全依赖个人的经验,影响测算的精度,在预测上也有可能产生误导。而且,此类研究只能估计某一年的泡沫情况,无法细分时间段,因此无法反映泡沫的连续性变化。第二类则是引入理论泡沫概念,用计量方法进行实证。如用自相关、偏度和峰度来判断是否存在泡沫。其根据是若股价存在泡沫,则收益或超额收益序列存在厚尾和自相关等特征。国内不少学者也对我国股市泡沫进行了分析和检验,但多数都是定性判断,定量分析的不...     

基于动态Gordon模型的中国股市泡沫研究

本文从关于股市泡沫的争论入手,综合梳理了关于泡沫理论、合理市盈率计算方法以及现值模型的发展脉络,并且利用动态Gordon模型测算了中国股票市场的合理价值以及泡沫程度.     

中国A股市场泡沫实证研究

引言 伴随着2007年国内证券市场A股平均市盈率接近40倍,一场关于中国股市泡沫的大讨论正在掀起.国内A股市场已经存在泡沫已经成为多数经济学家和业内人士的共识,但这一结论主要是依据市盈率这一标准作出的经验性判断,而缺乏更精确的实证分析.本文试图一方面通过以市盈率为主的泡沫度指标对中国大陆股市进行测算,另一方面引入理性泡沫概念,用计量方法对股市泡沫进行实证研究.     

我国股市市盈率分析

针对当前我国沪深股市平均超过60倍的市盈率，有关人士忧心忡忡，认为市盈市过高，超过了欧美国家股市市盈率30倍的警戒线，笔者认为 深两市的总体市盈率状况，是与我国的基本国情、经济发展状况和所处的经济周期，市场利率水平，企业的获利能力和成长能力相适应的，没有偏离经济运行的总体轨道，当然，市盈率不高并不意味着股票市不存在风险，加强监督管是化解股市风险、防止股市泡沫膨胀和过度投机的重要举措。     

人物

李嘉诚:忧虑内地股市泡沫化长江实业(0001.HK)主席李嘉诚17日表示,目前内地股市市盈率高达50～60倍,着实存在泡沫,对目前股市表示忧虑。与内地股市相比,李嘉诚认为,目前港股市盈率并不算太高,仍属合理。     

证券市场市盈率的问题、修正与超越

市盈率是衡量股票投资价值和管理层据以调控的重要参考指标。投资者根据整体市场的市盈率的分析可以辨明市场风险，把握住投资较大板块和股票，获取较高的投资收益。管理层通过对市盈率水平的分析，可以准确把握股市的强弱，从而提出合理的调控措施，保证股市健康运行。然而，市盈率在会计核算以及在具体运用中，仍存在不少问题。一、市盈率的缺陷市盈率是股票的市场价格与每股税后利润(亦称每股收益)之比率，用倍数表示。它包括个股市盈率和平均市盈率两种核算口径。前者用以衡量某股票投资价值大小，后者则用以考察股市整体市场风险的高低…     

投资高分红股票也有超额收益

目前,我国的股市主要实行收益市盈率,而非分红市盈率,此种做法与欧美股市的通行做法有所不同。从表面看,即使是收益市盈率明显提高,与一般投资者之间并没有太大的关系。因为收益市盈率更多的体现为理论数据,只存在于账面上,股民无法获得收益的分红。因此,在我国的股市中正逐步兴起投资高分红股票,其超额收益广受各界关注,本文仅就相关问题进行探讨。     

投资高分红股票也有超额收益

目前,我国的股市主要实行收益市盈率,而非分红市盈率,此种做法与欧美股市的通行做法有所不同.从表面看,即使是收益市盈率明显提高,与一般投资者之间并没有太大的关系.因为收益市盈率更多的体现为理论数据,只存在于账面上,股民无法获得收益的分红.因此,在我国的股市中正逐步兴起投资高分红股票,其超额收益广受各界关注,本文仅就相关问题进行探讨.     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Multiple Dimensions of Accounting in the Development of GAAP

The phrase 'accepted accounting principles' underlying financial statements is a forerunner of today's accounting standards. Here, it is argued that history shows that the term 'principles' is often most vague in debates on the development of those standards. The reasons for and consequences of that vague use are varied and complex. This article provides insights not highlighted in earlier analyses of the periods reviewed. While debates like the rule- versus principle-based standards are set up as two-dimensional, the many dimensions of accounting often allow argument to be easily diverted. The debate/argument thus remains unresolved. For progress to be achieved in the establishment of accounting standards the many dimensions of accounting must be acknowledged and attempts to divert debate minimized. Those with a stake in the development of accounting standards need to consider the total scene of the related accounting. In a particular debate, dimensions under scrutiny must be stated, with any others in that total scene being acknowledged even if kept constant.     

Life Insurance Policies with Statistical Heterogeneous Population

In the paper we consider an endowment insurance contract with a twelve months maturation time. Using the majorization order and Schur-convex functions we derive upper and lower bounds of the premium, the death and survival benefits for a hetrogeneous population of insureds. The bounds are obtained for the exponential, Balducci, and linear approximations.     

＂Differences＂are the Biggest Obstacle

China has the greatest numbers of both teachers and students worldwide ,who teach and learn English. Therefore ,to analyze the obstacles of learning English for Chinese is necessary. This article gives the idea of differences between Chinese and English mainly in languages and cultures fields. Through these we can see clearly that ＂differences＂ are the biggest obstacle in language learning.     

Aims and Scope

正The focus of the China Journal of Accounting Research is to publish theoretical and empirical research papers that use contemporary research methodologies to investigate issues about accounting,finance,auditing and corporate governance in China.the Greater China region and other emerging markets.The Journal also publishes insightful commentaries about     

英美“新批评”文论的重新审视

新批评是一个在二十世纪影响重大的文学批评流派,它与形式主义、结构主义文论,一起支撑起文本批评的理论与实践基石。但历来人们对其评价都多少有些偏颇,本文力图更客观地审视其理论。本文也初步得出新批评与形式主义在理论根基上的相异之点。