THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN KOREA

South Korea began its measurement of Gross National Product during the turbulent 1950's, a period of postwar rebuilding and of political and social changes. With only a small and largely inexperienced staff, and with little support from other statistical agencies whose data were essential to adequate GNP measurement, the Bank of Korea began this task in the early 1950's. Early estimates were extremely rough; over the years, the statistical staff was trained and other statistical agencies were upgraded. Measurements of output in the large agricultural sector and in manufacturing have gradually but consistently been strengthened as recent input-output data has been developed. Gaps still persist, particularly in the wholesale and retail sectors, but certain strengths are present: an outstanding job has been done in product pricing. The author describes the evolution of Korea's improving GNP program, presents its sources of data and its methodologies, and gives an assessment of problems of the past and prospects for the future.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

A MANDATE OF PRICE STABILITY FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

In recent years, the rules-versus-discretion debate over monetary policy has taken on new life. In the 1960s, this debate focused on the relative merits of nonactivist policies versus activist stabilization policies. When rational expectations arguments emerged in the 1970s, the debate broadened into three categories: activist policies characterized by rules, activist policies characterized by discretion, and nonactivist policies characterized by rules. This paper presents arguments for a particular example of the latter of these policies…specifically, a monetary policy which accords preeminence to achieving price-level stability. Central to these arguments is a comparison of this hypothetical policy with the actual monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve System, which is a type of activist policy characterized by discretion. The comparison suggests that actual monetary policy is more constrained than is generally realized. A rule mandating that the Federal Reserve accord preeminence to achieving price-level stability, then, should not be regarded as a policy which would significantly increase constraints on monetary policy. Instead, such a rule should be regarded as replacing implicit, poorly understood constraints with explicit constraints.     

FORECASTING FDI EQUITY INCOME FOR THE DANISH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Late and significant revisions are often observed in FDI equity income in many countries, hampering the quality of preliminary balance of payments statistics. We test a range of models on Danish data and find that forecasts for FDI equity income based on a combination of past profitability and consensus data for changes in expected private consumption growth outperform forecasts solely based on historical profitability. When the refined models are applied to the Danish balance of payments, the largest improvements are observed for outward and inward FDI separately. Revisions of net FDI equity income only decrease marginally because the significant revisions in gross terms resulting from the historical models have a tendency to (partly) cancel out each other on a net basis.     

ON THE INTERPRETATION AND APPLICABILITY OF A "GREEN NATIONAL PRODUCT"

Several economists have recently suggested that the national product should be adjusted for the value of environmental damages. In this paper we look at some of the difficulties one encounters when the correcting formulae derived from simple theoretical models are transferred to applied national accounting. In particular, the paper is concerned with the question of whether a corrected national income measure will actually provide relevant information for policy-makers.
It is shown that a "green national product" will be very difficult to interpret. In general, it may not give any indications of the necessity of imposing stronger environmental policy actions. Nor does it indicate the hypothetical state of the economy after a change in environmental efforts.     

A BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ANALYSIS OF THE LATIN AMERICAN DEBT CRISIS

In this paper we offer a definition of a country "debt crisis" based upon the amount of new borrowing relative to the cost of servicing past debt. Policy implications for both debtor countries and their creditors are examined. An empirical application is made to Latin American countries, 1978–82. The causes of the debt problems created during this period are investigated with respect to the extent they were the result of rising interest rates vis à vis increased borrowing.