Sovereign debt composition and time-varying public finance sustainability

We compute time-varying responses of the sovereign debt ratio to primary budget balances for 13 advanced economies between 1980 and 2012, and assess how fiscal sustainability reacts to different characteristics of government debt. We find that the sustainability time-varying coefficient increases and countries become more fiscally sustainable if they contract a higher share of long-term public debt, if more debt is held by the central bank or if it is easily marketable in capital markets.     

Sovereign default risk,debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil

Since Credit Default Swaps spreads reflect the sovereign risk and, thus, the uncertainties related to government solvency, the goal of this study is to examine the relation between sovereign risk and debt uncertainty (measured by the disagreement in expectations about public debt) in an important developing country – Brazil. Furthermore, the paper analyzes whether fiscal credibility plays a key role in mitigating the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. The results suggest the disagreement in expectations about public debt affects the sovereign risk, and fiscal credibility plays a twofold role, it reduces sovereign risk, and it mitigates the effect of debt uncertainty on sovereign risk. Besides, quantile regression estimates reveal that fiscal credibility improvements are even more important when sovereign risk levels are higher.     

Interplay between reputation and growth: the source,role and audience of reputation of rapid growth technology-based SMEs

Abstract

Drawing on resource-based view and signalling theory, this paper presents a comparative case of four (young vs. old; small vs. medium-sized) business-to-business firms to examine how (i.e. through which sources), why (i.e. for which managerial purposes) and for whom (i.e. for which audiences) do technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises build their reputation along the process of rapid growth? The results indicate that in the pre-growth stage product awards as well as technological and financial partners are important sources of reputation for demonstrating technological capabilities and firm sustainability to potential customers especially for young firms. Older firms, in turn, rely on technology partners and acquisitions in the rapid growth stage to convince existing customers that the firms’ can keep up with their customer’s changing needs. Moreover, the reputation gained from the first well-known customer and a focused clientele appear to be two critical antecedents of rapid growth whereas patents do not seem to have a significant reputational role in rapid growth. Our study informs the theory of reputation development of growing technology-based firms by abstracting a more nuanced understanding of stakeholder- and stage-contingent reputation that fosters rapid growth, and provides new insight into the literature on small firm growth.     

Reputation, Product Quality, and Warranties

This paper studies the firm's choice between implicit and explicit contracts as alternative methods of assuring product quality. The relationship between these two contractual forms is studied using a dynamic model with imperfect monitoring and team moral hazard where both the firm and the consumer take unobservable actions that affect product performance. The firm chooses the contractual arrangement that maximizes expected profit. Identified are conditions on the primitive attributes of the transactions and on the firm's environment that can help explain why firms might decide to use explicit contracting, implicit contracting, or a combination of the two. I also show that there are conditions under which the introduction of reputation causes explicit contracts to be more uniform and less sensitive to the details of the transaction than implied by static models.     

Reputation in Auctions: Theory, and Evidence from eBay

Employing a procedure suggested by a simple theoretical model of auctions in which bidders and sellers have observable and heterogenous reputations for default, we examine the effect of reputation on price in a data set drawn from the online auction site eBay. Our main empirical result is that seller's, but not bidder's, reputation has an economically and statistically significant effect on price.     

Growth, debt and public infrastructure

This paper presents a closed economy model of endogenous growth driven by capital externalities arising from both private capital and public infrastructure. The model is calibrated to fit data for India, an approximately closed economy. Simulations suggest that fiscal policy certainly matters and the choice of the income taxation rate, the mix of government spending between infrastructure and public consumption goods, and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the long-run growth rate. Intertemporal aspects of fiscal policy are also important and the precommitment (time-inconsistent) and non-precommitment policies differ substantially.     

Reputation, Honesty, and Efficiency with Insider Information: an Experiment

We conduct an experimental study of sales of insider information about an asset's future value, where the insiders cannot purchase the underlying asset. We examine whether such information is purchased, the quality of the information provided, and the subsequent accuracy of purchase decisions in the underlying asset market. Our design explores whether reputation, in a repeated game of finite (but uncertain) duration, is an effective constraint on deliberate strategic misinformation. The insiders have an immediate incentive to state that the asset value is high when its true value is low. We suggest an application to insider trading in financial information markets. With fixed matching, cooperative outcomes featuring truthful revelation are frequently achieved and sustained, even though this suggests subjects have sophisticated beliefs about the beliefs and behavior of others. As a comparison, we also conduct a control treatment with random rematching. Here, information purchase is less frequent, the rate of truthful revelation decreases, and efficiency is diminished. Our results suggest that most people anticipate that others realize the potential value of a good reputation.     

Does the reputation matter？ Corporate reputation and earnings quality

Good corporate reputations are critical not only because of the potential for value creation, but also because their intangible character makes replication by competing firms considerably more difficult. This paper tests the relationship between the reputation and the earnings quality. Through a partial correlation test and a regression test, I do find the evidence that the reputation is not only positively correlated with superior earnings quality, but also does have positive effect on superior earnings quality, as well as the superior total sales do in Chinese public companies.     

Asset sale,debt restructuring,and liquidation

This paper considers a dynamic model in which shareholders of a firm in distress have a choice of whether the firm proceeds to debt restructuring or direct liquidation at an arbitrary time. In the model, we show the following results. Fewer asset sales, lower financing, debt renegotiation, and running costs, a lower premium to the debt holders, a lower cash flow volatility, and a higher initial coupon increase the shareholders׳ incentive to choose debt restructuring to avoid full liquidation. In the debt renegotiation process, the shareholders arrange the coupon reduction and use equity financing to retire a part of the debt value to the debt holders. The timing of debt restructuring always coincides with that of liquidation without debt renegotiation. Most notably, the shareholders do not prefer asset sale in debt restructuring even if they face high financing costs. The possibility of debt renegotiation in the future increases the initial leverage ratio in the optimal capital structure.     

审计职业声誉损害、独立性与市场反应

独立审计是降低信息不对称程度和缓解委托代理成本的有效机制,其作用的发挥取决于审计质量,而职业声誉是市场衡量审计质量的便捷标准,注册会计师职业声誉的损害是否会削弱社会公众对审计质量的评价,进而影响市场对公司价值的判断?文章以2002年3月中国注册会计师协会发布的未通过年检的五家会计师事务所作为切入点,研究声誉受损对其主审上市公司累计异常回报率的影响,结果发现异常回报率显著为负,而且这种负面反应的程度与上市公司的委托代理成本相关,但与独立性不存在显著关系。     

Corporate debt,corporate taxes and leasing

This paper utilizes recent developments in capital lease modeling to develop a new specification of the relationship between the expected returns to debt, levered equity and unlevered equity for firms that lease a portion of their assets. Accounting explicitly for leases is shown to be important when the difference between equity and debt risk is large, when the risk of leased assets differs from the firm's other assets and when salvage value is a significant portion of the capitalized value of the firm's lease obligations. This new specification yields improved estimates of firms' unlevered cost of capital, thereby facilitating improved capital budgeting decisions in those that lease a significant portion of their assets.     

Rent control with reputation: theory and evidence

Rent-control policy is modeled as an implicit contract between voters of a community and suppliers of rental housing. It is shown that if residents can make an ex ante commitment to never adopt rent controls they will do so. When precommitment is not possible there are conditions under which a policy of never adopting rent controls is not self-enforcing. Under such circumstances a state-invariant ceiling price is shown to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium rent-control policy. The model is tested using data for New Jersey where local option regarding the choice of rent control policy was declared constitutional in the early 1970s. Probit analysis is used to determine whether predictions of the model are supported by an investigation of factors leading to imposition of rent controls by 64 of the 245 communities in the sample.     

承销商声誉、审计独立性与审计师选择

审计师选择一直都是审计学术界和实务界共同关注的重要问题.通过研究IPO公司的承销商声誉对审计师选择的影响,并且进一步探讨审计独立性的提高是否会影响承销商声誉与审计师选择之间的关系,以及这些影响在国有企业和非国有企业是否存在差异.研究结果表明,IPO公司的承销商声誉越高,越倾向于选择代表高审计质量的“十大”审计师,国有企业的承销商声誉越高,越倾向于选择代表高审计质量的“十大”审计师,非国有企业的承销商声誉与审计师选择之间没有显著的相关性;审计独立性的提高,既削弱了承销商声誉与高质量审计师之间的正相关关系,也削弱了国有企业的承销商声誉与高质量审计师之间的正相关关系,但没有对非国有企业的承销商声誉与审计师选择之间的关系产生影响.研究结论可以为政府监管部门、企业管理者以及投资者提供决策依据.     

Moral hazard,debt overhang and capital structure

This paper investigates the impact of managerial moral hazard on the debt overhang of a firm by constructing a contingent claims model in which the manager faces costly effort. Using a calibrated capital structure model, we show that the costs of debt overhang become more serious in the presence of managerial moral hazard. Such costs even account for more than half of the total agency costs at a high level of cash flow. Moreover, in contrast to the results of Hackbarth and Mauer (2012), our model predicts a U-shaped relationship between the leverage ratio and investment opportunities of a firm, which is caused by managers’ moral hazard. Finally, by considering this moral hazard, we also show the coexistence of low leverage ratios and high credit spreads, which explains the phenomenon of “low debt levels and high credit spreads” observed in practice.     

阿根廷债务重组：现实困局与制度反思

自2001年主权债务违约后,阿根廷经历了2005年和2010年两次债务互换,但是,由于少数“钉子户”债权人的反对并诉诸司法程序,阿根廷债务重组陷入再次违约的重大风险。回顾阿根廷债务重组的过程以及以对冲基金为主的少数债权人对阿根廷的诉讼,可以清晰地看出阿根廷主权债务重组困境是由阿根廷自身非审慎性的债务重组机制、美国行为的双重标准以及全球主权债务重组基础机制缺失等造成的。随着重债富国问题的出现,主权债务重组中的国内外司法管辖权、私人部门与公共部门参与、集体行动条款与同等权益条款,以及合同法与法定机制等争论更加凸显,建立一个全球性主权债务重组机制是国际金融体系稳定的基础任务。     

New investor categories,agility and HRM: The case of Sovereign Wealth Funds

This article reviews the existing literature on SWFs and the firm, focusing particular attention on the implications of the rise of SWFs strategic agility and HRM. This paper outlines three main channels through which sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment has implications for employees. First, SWFs influence macroeconomic environments, and hence affect labor conditions. Second, institutional conditions in different countries shape the behavior of SWFs around the world, which in turn has implications for HR strategy and practice. Third, SWFs can have a direct effect on the corporate governance and hence HR strategies and employees of organizations in which they invest. We review and discuss these three channels and outline avenues for future research.     

信用体系信用内生机制与我国社会信用体系构建

信用不仅属于道德范畴,而且属于经济范畴。信用可以内生于市场交易,是经济主体追求长期利益最大化的理性选择,也是市场经济得以正常运行和效率得以充分发挥的基础。我国当前市场经济不健全,信用作为人们的理性选择结果难以实现,从而导致严重的社会和经济问题。构建我国的社会信用体系,要重视信用内生机制,深化市场经济改革,建立现代市场经济秩序,将信用内化为人们理性选择的自然结果,这样才能最终建立稳定的社会信用体系。     

Fiscal policy,debt constraint and expectations-driven volatility

Imposing some constraints on public debt is often justified regarding sustainability and stability issues. This is especially the case when the ratio of public debt over GDP is restricted to be constant. Using a Ramsey model, we show that such a constraint can however be a fundamental source of indeterminacy, and therefore, of expectations-driven fluctuations. Indeed, through the intertemporal budget constraint of the government, income taxation negatively depends on future debt, i.e. on the expected level of production. This mechanism ensures that expectations on the future tax rate may be self-fulfilling. We show that this is promoted by a larger ratio of debt over GDP.     

Government debt,learning and the term structure

Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically significant manner. The maturity composition of debt is also found to matter: innovations in holdings of long-term debt affect the term structure, while increases in short-term debt affect inflation expectations. These effects of changes in holdings of debt on the yield curve can be derived in a general equilibrium model in which the government issues exponentially-maturing riskless debt, financed by lump-sum taxes, and the optimizing agents are adaptive learners. On calibrating the average maturity of debt in the model to match that of U.S. Treasury debt since the 1980s, I find that positive innovations in government debt lead to increases in asset yields. This is because agents do not learn the principle of Ricardian equivalence exactly, and perceive increases in holdings of government bonds as a rise in their net wealth. Imposing rational expectations on the agents eliminates this channel, and changes in holdings of government debt have no effect on yields. The learning model also implies that as the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and the average maturity of debt becomes longer, the agents become less likely to learn that Ricardian equivalence holds.     

Prediction difficulty, financial strength and debt maturity

In order to have the optimal capital structure, the company with higher volatility of return adjusts the capital structure more frequently and has shorter debt maturity. Investors also have shorter investment cycle on these companies. Investment cycle is also affected by information asymmetry. The less asymmetric the information is, the more information investors get and the longer the investment cycle is. The adjustment frequency is also restricted by financial strength. This paper measures the debt maturity structure of the firm as the weighted average of debt maturity, and it is more precise than the ratio of long term debt to total debt. In empirical tests on debt maturity, the results show that financial strength, volatility of return and asymmetric information all have negative impacts on debt maturity.