Scale effects in Schumpeterian models of economic growth

Early models of Schumpeterian growth incorporate scale effects predicting that large economies grow faster than small economies, and that population growth causes accelerating per capita income growth. An absence of clear empirical evidence for these scale effects has led some researchers to question the foundations underlying the Schumpeterian approach to growth. This paper reviews empirical evidence on the relationship between scale and growth, and recent attempts to construct Schumpeterian growth models without scale effects.     

The dynamic effects of general purpose technologies on Schumpeterian growth

General purpose technologies (GPTs) are drastic innovations characterized by pervasiveness in use and innovational complementarities. The dynamic effects of a GPT are analyzed within a quality-ladders model of scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth. The diffusion path of a GPT across a continuum of industries is governed by S-curve dynamics. The model generates a unique, saddle-path long-run equilibrium. Along the transition path, the measure of industries that adopt the new GPT increases, consumption per capita falls, and the interest rate rises. The growth rate of the stock market depends negatively on the rate of GPT diffusion and the magnitude of the GPT-ridden R&D productivity gains; and positively on the rate of population growth. It also follows a U-shaped path during the diffusion process of the new GPT. Finally, the model generates transitional growth cycles of per capita GNP.JEL Classification: E3, O3, O4I would like to thank Elias Dinopoulos for encouragement, and for constructive comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank David Figlio, Douglas Waldo, Steven Slutsky and participants in the 9th Biennial Congress of the International Schumpeter Society for useful discussions and suggestions. Any remaining errors are my own responsibility.     

On the effects of human capital and R&D policies in an endogenous growth model

We introduce an external effect of existing technologies in human capital accumulation in an endogenous growth model and describe its steady-state and transition. We numerically solve the model to compare the quantitative effects of R&D policy with the quantitative effects of human capital policy in wealth and welfare. Although R&D subsidies have now an overall positive effect on growth, wealth and welfare, the calibration exercise shows that for plausible values for the parameters, human capital policy is simultaneously the most income and welfare-improving and the less expensive to the government.     

From Smith to Schumpeter: A theory of take-off and convergence to sustained growth

This paper proposes a theory of the emergence of modern Schumpeterian growth that focuses on the within-industry forces that regulate the response of firms and entrepreneurs to Smithian market expansion and thus identifies an amplification mechanism that the literature has neglected. Because it solves the model in closed-form, the paper provides analytical insight on the forces that drive the economy׳s phase transition and the associated qualitative transformation of industrial activity. The resulting S-shaped path of GDP per capita replicates the key feature of the data: an accelerating phase followed by a deceleration with convergence to a stationary growth rate. The model also yields predictions for grand ratios like consumption/GDP, profits/GDP, and the distribution of income across factors of production.     

R&D intensity,economic growth and firm-size growth: theory and practice

This article proposes a theoretical knowledge-driven horizontal research and development (R&D) endogenous-growth model to explain, for 10 innovative countries, the co-movement of the respective R&D intensity, economic growth and firm-size growth, by exploring short-medium-run and long-run growth effects. Bearing in mind some recent literature, we improve the R&D technology, by considering that R&D is more labour intensive through time as complexity increases, that the diffusion of designs is affected by coordination, organizational and transportation costs, and that a potential entrant will come up with the right idea is reduced because of the presence of a larger number of entrants. We show that when the economy is not initially in a steady state, it can take a saddle path towards the unique and locally saddle-path stable interior steady state. Both transitional-dynamics and steady-state behaviours of our theoretical model are then consistent with, respectively, the time-series and the cross-sectional evidence.     

Employment growth and innovation at the firm level

We analyze the influence of innovation on growth rates of employment in 859 Dutch manufacturing firms over the period 1983–1988. Whereas the (growth of the) R&D intensity of firms has a slightly negative impact on employment, we find that firms with a high share of product-related R&D (as a proxi of R&D related to industrial activities in an early stage of the life cycle) experienced an above average growth of employment. The same holds for firms which directed their R&D towards information technology. Smaller firms have, ceteris paribus, substantially higher growth rates of employment than their larger counterparts. Against our expectations, R&D cooperation has no significant impact on employment growth. The same holds for activities in the fields of biotechnology and new materials.     

Quantitative growth effects of subsidies in a search theoretic R&D model

Should government subsidize R&D and does it matter how these subsidies are allocated? We examine these questions in a dynamic model where R&D is described as sequential sampling from a distribution of new ideas. Successful discoveries affect future available resources and incentives for further R&D. Consequently, there may be under-investment in R&D. We study the effect of government interventions aimed at fostering growth through R&D. Calibrating the model with aggregate data from the Israeli business sector allows us to quantitatively compare two forms of support resembling those actually used to encourage R&D in the Israeli business sector: (i) an unrestricted subsidy that may be used at the recipients' discretion to finance R&D or other investments, (ii) a subsidy earmarked by the government for R&D activities only. While there is no theoretical way to determine which of the two subsidies will have a greater impact on search for new ideas and growth, we find that in the calibrated economy both subsidies have a significant but similar impact on the economy's output and TFP growth rates. Accordingly, in the case of the Israeli business sector, the incentives to conduct R&D were sufficiently strong, and no R&D-specific encouragement was needed. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that for economies characterized by other parameter values this result may not be true. Correspondence to: B. Bental     

R&D-expenditure in an endogenous growth model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the role that aggregate R&D-expenditure plays in economic growth. We introduce a technology of innovation based on expenditure that generates endogenous sustainable growth in absence of any scale effect. This R&D-model permits us to study the effects of some fiscal policies. In particular, we analyze how subsidies to R&D-investment and physical capital accumulation affect the long-run growth rate. For the empirical cross-country analysis we directly derive a structural econometric model.     

Technological opportunity and the growth of knowledge: A Schumpeterian approach to measurement

A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.     

The Microeconomics of an R&D-Based Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the microeconomic structure underlying a class of endogenous growth models in which product differentiation and stochastic quality growth coexist. The general equilibrium model generates a stationary stochastic equilibrium in which a nondegenerate ergodic distribution of firm size depends systematically on parameters of the model. Features of the model necessary for stable endogenous aggregate growth are explored, and predictions of the model are compared with microeconometric evidence on R&D intensity, firm growth, and concentration.     

Effects of blocking patents on R&D: a quantitative DGE analysis

What are the effects of blocking patents on R&;D and consumption? This paper develops a quality-ladder growth model with overlapping intellectual property rights and capital accumulation to quantitatively evaluate the effects of blocking patents. The analysis focuses on two policy variables (a) patent breadth that determines the amount of profits created by an invention and (b) the profit-sharing rule that determines the distribution of profits between current and former inventors along the quality ladder. The model is calibrated to aggregate data of the US economy. Under parameter values that match key features of the US economy and show equilibrium R&;D underinvestment, I find that optimizing the profit-sharing rule of blocking patents would lead to a significant increase in R&;D, consumption and welfare. Also, the paper derives and quantifies a dynamic distortionary effect of patent policy on capital accumulation.     

Lagging productivity growth: Measurement,technology, and shock effects

One of the most important problems about which economists have professional knowledge is lagging productivity growth. After illustrating some significant developments this paper addresses three questions: (1) To what extent does R&;D activity drive productivity growth, (2) how do alternative measures of productivity affect the conclusions and (3) how did the oil price shocks and the increased openness of the U.S. economy affect productivity growth? After removing the influence of the extremely dynamic computer industry, average manufacturing industry productivity in the U.S. throughout the 80s grew at a disappointing pace. And it didn't improve in the most dynamic industries. But there is good news as well. First, part of the 1970s productivity slump is clearly attributable to the 1973–74 oil price shock. Second and more important, technological innovation does not appear to have lost its power in driving productivity growth forward. Indeed there is evidence of stronger and more consistent productivity effects from R&;D investment during the 1980s, although the exact channels through which R&;D enhances manufacturing sector productivity are left in doubt. Estimates of the role inter-industry technology flows play are sensitive to aggregation and the conventions used to construct the industry price deflators underlying productivity measures.     

Strategic policies and growth: an applied model of R&D-driven endogenous growth

We introduce and explore a general equilibrium model with R&D-driven endogenous growth, whose antecedents are the models of Romer (1990) [Romer, P.M., 1990. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-102] and Grossman and Helpman (1991) [Grossman, G.M., Helpman E., 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge]. Utilizing evidence from recent econometric studies on sources of growth, the model also accounts explicitly for cross-border technological spillovers. The model is specified and calibrated to data from Japan, and is solved to obtain both the transitional and the steady-state equilibria. We explore the effects of selective trade and R&D promotion policies on long-run growth and social welfare. The model results suggest that while a strategic trade policy has little effect on re-allocating resources into domestic R&D activities, it can significantly affect the cross-border spillovers of technological knowledge, which, in turn, stimulates growth. We find that trade liberalization may cause the growth rate to fall and lead to a loss of social welfare in the long-run, although it improves welfare in the short-run. R&D promotion policies stimulate growth by inducing private agents to allocate more resources to domestic R&D, as well as to take greater advantage of global R&D spillovers. Here, we find significantly high growth effects together with sizable gains in social welfare at low incidence to tax payers.     

Rent Protection as a Barrier to Innovation and Growth

We build a model of R&D-based growth in which the discovery of higher-quality products is governed by sequential stochastic innovation contests. We term the costly attempts of incumbent firms to safeguard the monopoly rents from their past innovations rent-protecting activities. Our analysis (1) offers a novel explanation of the observation that the difficulty of conducting R&D has been increasing over time, (2) establishes the emergence of endogenous scale-invariant long-run innovation and growth, and (3) identifies a new structural barrier to innovation and growth. We also show that long-run growth depends positively on proportional R&D subsidies, the population growth rate, and the size of innovations, but negatively on the market interest rate and the effectiveness of rent-protecting activities. An unpublished version of this paper was circulated earlier under the title “Innovation and Rent Protection in the Theory of Schumpeterian Growth.” We thank an anonymous referee and seminar participants in several venues for useful comments and suggestions.     

R&D expenditures and firm growth – is small beautiful?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how efficiently different groups of firms use their R&D expenditures. To this end, it investigates how the empirical relationship between firms' R&D expenditures and their sales growth varies with different values of firm size, firm age, and the number of firms in the respective industry. Using panel data for Switzerland ranging from 1995 to 2012, the paper finds that smaller, more mature firms show a more positive relation between R&D expenditures and sales growth than both relatively larger or younger firms. The paper argues that, on the one hand, these firms can benefit from various small size advantages in the R&D process, such as more motivated researchers, caused by a stronger connection to the firm's fate. On the other hand, these firms can also benefit from a well-established R&D department that allows absorbing the latest technological developments. The paper further finds that industries consisting of many small firms show a more positive relation between R&D expenditures and sales growth than industries consisting of only a few large firms. The intuition behind this result is that industries consisting of many small firms imply more independent innovative trials, which then together result in a higher probability of discovering successful innovations. In sum, the paper finds that groups consisting of a large number of small, more mature firms spend their R&D in the most efficient way.     

High-growth versus declining firms: the differential impact of human capital and R&D

We provide evidence that both human capital and R&D increase the likelihood that a firm will be a high-growth firm in the industry. However, different from human capital, being an R&D active firm also increases the probability of substantial decline or failure, underscoring the risky nature of innovation. Quantile regression results show that, different from R&D, human capital is growth-enhancing for all firms, hence also those located in the lower quantiles of the distribution of growth rates across firms.     

Information sharing and the stability of cooperation in research joint ventures*

The model studies information sharing and the stability of cooperation in cost reducing Research Joint Ventures (RJVs). In a three-stage game-theoretic framework, firms decide on participation in a RJV, information sharing along with R&D expenditures, and output. An important feature of the model is that voluntary information sharing between cooperating firms increases information leakage from the RJV to outsiders. It is found that RJVs representing a larger portion of firms in the industry are more likely to share information. It is also found that when sharing information is costless, firms generally don't choose intermediate levels of information sharing: they share all the information or none at all. The size of the RJV is found to depend on three effects: a coordination effect, an information sharing effect, and a competition effect. Depending on the relative magnitudes of these effects, the size of the RJV may increase or decrease with spillovers. In response to an increase in leakages, RJV members reduce their R&D spending. In addition, they either increase the RJV size while maintaining information sharing unchanged (when leakages are low), or they reduce both information sharing and RJV size (when leakages are high).     

The Internet,R&D expenditure and economic growth

We examine the effect of the Internet on the relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth. Data for 105 countries over the period 1994–2014 are used for panel data analysis. The effect of R&D expenditure on economic growth proves to be affected positively by the Internet and the effect of the Internet on the economic growth is positively strengthened by an increase in R&D expenditure.     

Location factors of international R&D activities: an econometric approach

A model is developed of the relation between adoption of an innovation by firms and firm size. Decision making is represented as a group assessment of the perceived ratio between expected returns after succesful introduction, and the risk that implementation will fail or will last too long to makc adoption worth while. In view of differences in thc assessment of uncertainty and corresponding demands on the perceived return-to-risk ratio, among influencers of decisions in the firm, decision making is taken as stochastic, with a probability of adoption related to (objective) net benefits, and probability of non-adoption related to risk. The model gives a new way of looking at the fact that small firms lag behind in the adoption of new technology. In contrast with previous models proposed by David and Davies the explanation has nothing to do with there being some critical size below which adoption is not profitable. The present model explains the adoption lag for smaller firms as the result of expected returns being proportional to size while risk of failed implementation is independent of size. The model is tested and estimated empirically on data for the adoption of computers in small scale retailing, in the Netherlands.     

Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)