A model of the linked adoption of complementary technologies

This paper presents a dynamic feedback model of the technology diffusion process in which each firm's technology adoption decisions maximize the net present value of its anticipated cash flow, taking into account the direct cost savings, the number of linked firms expected to adopt complementary technologies, and anticipated changes in adoption costs. The adoption of complementary technologies need not be simultaneous, but linked technologies can induce a rapid industrial regime shift without explicit coordination or planning.     

A discrete-time hazard model of lottery adoption

This paper uses conventional logit probablitities to estimate a discrete-time hazard model of lottery adoption. The data set consists of a time-series of cross-sections on states in the US. Our findings suggests that politicians are more likely to support the decision. A lottery is more likely to be adopted of ther is a favourable climate for gambling in the state and if a bordering state has adopted a lottery.     

A model of technology adoption and growth

Summary We construct a model of economic growth in which firms adopt more advanced technologies. In order to advance its technology, a firm must make an investment. The size of this investment depends on the size of the technology adoption barriers in the firm's country Assuming a Markov chain for these barriers, we examine the amount of variation and persistence in the chain for which the model matches the observed output disparity across countries and the mobility of nations. Our calibration suggests a range for the size of these barriers of a factor five, and the presence of a barrier trap.The author is grateful to V. V. Chari, Larry Christiano, Javier Díaz-Giménez, David Johnson, Edward C. Prescott, Richard Rogerson, James Schmitz, and Javier Vallés for their comments. An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title of Economic Institutions and External Factors: Implications for the Replacement of Inferior Technologies and Growth.     

A behavioral model of the economic long wave

This paper presents a simple model of the economic long wave. The model is based on the System Dynamics National Model. Since 1975 the National Model has provided an increasingly rich theory of the economic long wave. The theory relates capital investment, employment and workforce participation, monetary and fiscal policy, inflation, productivity and innovation, and even political values. The model presented here focuses on capital investment. The structure of the model is shown to be consistent with the principles of bounded rationality. The behavior of the model is analyzed, and capital self-ordering is shown to be sufficient to generate long waves. The model complements the National Model by providing a representation of the dynamic hypothesis that is amenable to formal analysis and is easily extended to include other important mechanisms that may influence the nature of the long wave.     

A dynamic decision-theoretic model of technology adoption for the competitive firm

In this article, the technology adoption problem of the competitive firm is revisited. The firm is assumed to allocate a quasi fixed factor between a traditional and a new technology. In the presence of costs of adjustment and learning, the adoption problem is formulated as an optimal control problem.     

A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators

According to empirical studies, speculators place significant orders in commodity markets and may cause bubbles and crashes. This paper develops a cobweb-like commodity market model that takes into account the behavior of technical and fundamental speculators. We show that interactions between consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators may produce price dynamics which mimics the cyclical price motion of actual commodity markets, i.e., irregular switches between bullish and bearish price developments. Moreover, we find that the impact of speculators on price dynamics is non-trivial: depending on the market structure, speculative transactions may either be beneficial or harmful for market stability.     

A nonparametric analysis of the impact of agri-environmental advisory activities on best management practice adoption: A case study of Québec

This study investigates the factors that determine producers' participation in agri-environmental advisory activities and their adoption of best management practices (BMPs) in Québec (Canada). Data were collected from farmers via telephone interviews, and the impacts of agri-environmental extension activities were analyzed using average treatment effect and local average treatment effect, estimated with non-parametric approaches. The average effects of agri-environmental extension activities are statistically significant for the majority of BMPs. We also find a statistically significant formal diffusion effect of producers' membership in an agri-environmental advisory club. The informal diffusion effect is statistically significant for BMPs that require advanced technical knowledge.     

Technology adoption and accumulation in a vintage-capital model

We present a model of capital accumulation and technology adoption in a vintage-capital framework. The model is an infinite-horizon/infinite-dimensional optimal control model: the firm employs a continuum of technologies (a continuum of heterogeneous capital goods). Capital goods are technology specific, their technology is related to vintage and technology progress. The entrepreneur maximizes the profits obtained by employing a continuum of technologies under the assumption of constant returns to scale and bearing adjustment costs for gross investments. The diffusion of a new technology is established by allowing the entrepreneur to invest in vintage capital goods.     

Two-stage adoption of different types of pollution prevention (P2) activities

Pollution prevention (P2) remains the key pollution reduction strategy in the US despite its limited success in improving environmental performance. To aid the targeting of policies to promote the types of P2 that achieve environmental goals, this study investigates the intricate nature of P2 adoption by (1) distinguishing among three types of P2: procedural changes, input and material changes and equipment and product changes, (2) disentangling the adoption decision into a binary and a count decision, and (3) analyzing benefit- and cost-related factors. Using a sample of facilities of S&P 500 firms, I employ NB hurdle models to analyze how facilities respond to these factors in making P2 adoption decisions. I find that facilities that have lower cost of adoption due to past P2 experience have higher likelihood of adoption and higher rates of adoption of all types of P2. However, those exposed to greater threat of enforcement action find limited scope for P2 in achieving environmental compliance objectives. Some regulatory threat variables even have a negative effect. Facilities also adopt P2 to enjoy market-related benefits: final good producers are more likely to adopt P2 that appeal to consumers (input and material changes), while intermediate good producers are more likely to adopt P2 that is valued by its supply chain (procedural changes). Community characteristics and other knowledge sources are not always positively associated with the likelihood of adoption nor with the rate of adoption.     

The emergence of property rights enforcement in early trade: A behavioral model without reputational effects

The present article focuses on the conditions that allow governments to increase property rights protection because they expect enough income from such action. We develop a behavioral explanation, according to which the answer lies in the growth in the importance, size and wealth of merchant guilds in the medieval era in Western Europe as well as a somewhat surprising effect of volatile price structures. We add to prior research by showing that even uncoordinated embargo pressures among multiple guilds could get medieval rulers to offer high levels of property rights protection.     

A behavioral characterization of plausible priors

Recent decision theories represent ambiguity via multiple priors, interpreted as alternative probabilistic models of the relevant uncertainty. This paper provides a robust behavioral foundation for this interpretation. A prior P is “plausible” if preferences over some subset of acts admit an expected utility representation with prior P, but not with any other prior Q≠P. Under suitable axioms, plausible priors can be elicited from preferences, and fully characterize them; also, probabilistic sophistication implies that there exists only one plausible prior; finally, “plausible posteriors” can be derived via Bayesian updating. Several familiar decision models are consistent with the proposed axioms.     

Access regulation and the adoption of VoIP

The introduction of packet-switched telephony in the form of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) raises concerns about current regulatory practice. Access regulation has been designed for traditional telephony on public networks (PSTN). In this paper we analyze the effect of access regulation and retail price regulation of PSTN networks on the adoption of a new technology in the form of VoIP. In particular, we show that with endogenous consumer choice between PSTN and VoIP telephony, higher prices for terminating access to the PSTN network make VoIP less likely to succeed and lead to lower profits of operators that offer exclusively VoIP telephony.      

Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles

Supply security and environmental concerns associated with oil call for an introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. To date, scenario studies of infrastructure build-up and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are driven by cost estimates and technological feasibility assumptions, indicating that there is a “chicken and egg problem”: Car producers do not offer FCVs as long as there are no hydrogen filling stations, and infrastructure will not be set up unless there is a significant number of FCVs on the road. This diffusion barrier is often used as an argument for a major (public) infrastructure program, neglecting the fact that the automobile market is highly competitive and car producers, consumers, and filling station operators form an interdependent dynamic system, where taxes influence technology choice. In this paper, an agent-based model is used that captures the main interdependencies to simulate possible diffusion paths of FCVs. The results suggest that a tax on conventional cars can successfully promote diffusion even without a major infrastructure program. However, consumers and individual producers are affected differently by the tax, indicating that differently strong resistance towards such a policy can be anticipated. Moreover, there is evidence that some producers might benefit from cooperation with filling station operators to generate a faster build-up of infrastructure.

A study of the method using search traffic to analyze new technology adoption

Various types of indices have been developed and applied for the purpose of identifying emergent technologies and forecasting their adoption. Recently, researchers have proposed search traffic analysis as a new method for tracking changes among consumers and utilizing this information to conduct further market research. Now with the onset of big data era, various attempts are being made to analyze the immense body of information made available by hidden traces left behind by consumers. In the same vein, our present study seeks to draw attention to the analytical advantages of utilizing search traffic. In this study, we use search traffic to analyze the adoption process of a new technology, in this case the technology of hybrid cars, for the purpose of verifying the potential value of conducting adoption analysis based on search traffic and we also propose a more refined method of analysis. First, we undertook to examine the keyword unit used in the searches, in order to refine our analysis of search traffic and thereby obtain greater practical utility. This was accomplished by comparing technology searches that specified the technology name with searches that specified the brand name. For each respective case, we also performed comparative analyses examining instances in which consumers simultaneously included the representative attributes of a product in their search.Our research found that the traffic of searches that specify a product's brand name was significant for explaining sales. Therefore, in the conclusion of this paper we argue that if the unit of search is properly refined, search traffic can indeed serve as an extremely useful method for analyzing or forecasting sales volume. Notably, brand-focused search traffic exhibited a superior ability to forecast sales volume compared to macro-indicators such as GDP growth or WTI prices that had been used to forecast car demand in preceding studies. Forecasting based on search traffic was even superior to forecasts using other bibliometric indices such as patent applications or news coverage.     

Replacement,adoption and economic dynamics: lessons from a canonical creative destruction model

In this paper, we provide a first inspection into how structural technology adoption costs affect economic fluctuations. To this end, we choose a simple extension of a canonical creative destruction model. We analytically characterize the optimal replacement–adoption policies, and study numerically the induced dynamics. Our model predicts that the countries supporting the highest adoption costs are those which display the longest and sharpest business and employment fluctuations, and the lowest convergence speeds to their steady state equilibria. Moreover, as the position of the workers in the labor market weakens, the fluctuations are shown to get even sharper.     

Trade and the adoption of a universal language

This paper investigates long-run consequences of international trade between two economies inhabited by two distinct races using different languages. If wages are not equal in autarky, free trade encourages the workers of the low-wage country to learn the language of the high-wage country. As the bilingual population increases in the low-wage country, products are increasingly produced in the dominant-language version. In the long run the language of the high-wage country becomes universally adopted.     

Individualism and the adoption of clean energy technology

Why do 20% of Swedes report having adopted a clean energy system while the corresponding share of Spaniards equals 0.4%? Using data for about 25,000 individuals across 33 countries, this study tests which cultural trait, individualism or collectivism, is associated with greater levels of clean technology adoption. Our fractional probit estimates suggest that individualistic individuals are more inclined to adopt clean energy systems for home and transport purposes. In particular, the adoption probability rises by an estimated 2% if a person exhibits individualistic values. This finding is not driven by country-specific tax or subsidy policies or market-specific determinants and is robust to controlling for individual and household characteristics, attitudes, social and personal norms and other significant dimensions of cultural differences. The results, therefore, facilitate an understanding of how the decision to adopt clean energy technologies can be driven by cultural factors.