Technology and social change: William Fielding Ogburn revisited

This paper reviews William Fielding Ogburn's work on technology and social change. An overview of his basic theory is presented, as well as later refinements found in such works as Recent Social Trends in the United States, Technological Trends and National Policy, The Social Effects of Aviation, and other books and articles. It is suggested that while Ogburn is most widely remembered for his thesis of cultural lag, some of his later work on technology and social change is actually more important and deserves reconsideration and extension. One kind of extension might follow the lines of a systems approach rather than continuing the technological primacy strategy that Ogburn is normally considered to have used. The paper also surveys Ogburn's important work in the areas of technology, planning, and social policy, including materials on technology assessment. Ogburn's nontechnocratic approach to these questions, as well as his insistence that social scientists have a great deal to offer to the formulation of technological and social policies, are some of his most important contributions. Questions of technology and social change remain important contemporary issues, yet there is a surprising paucity of social science work on these crucial topics. Further study, extension, and reformulation of Ogburn's pioneering ideas offer fruitful means of embarking on new social science analyses of technology and society.     

On Hegel,imperialism, and structural stagnation

The essentials of the economic theory of imperialism à la Hobson-Luxemburg are anticipated in two paragraphs of Hegel's Philosophy of Right. Marx did not pay attention to this aspect of Hegel's thought, perhaps because it implied a longer survival probability for capitalism than Marx cared to acknowledge. The second part of the paper shows the formal similarity between the economic theory of imperialism and the theory of structural stagnation that was proposed in Latin America in the 1960s. The blindspots and early demise of that theory have the same psychological root as Marx's neglect of Hegel's insights.     

Frisch and Tinbergen on economic planning

The Frisch-Tinbergen model of central economic planning represents the first important non-Soviet planning model. This constrained optimization model makes the central planner a staff adviser to the Premier. The central planner explores the Premier's preference ordering and recommends instruments that maximize the Premier's utility, given the constraints within an econometric model. This model assumes Premiers have no preference over instruments or models and that planning agencies have neither internal structure nor operating responsibilities. The paper explores the consequences of removing such limiting assumptions, utilizing the results of more recent contributions to the theory of.-economic systems.     

Marx's socialism in the context of his typology of economic systems

This paper restates the major structural properties of Marx's conception of socialism in the broader context of his typology of economic systems, commencing with feudalism and ending with his unique vision of postcapitalist economy. It also discusses briefly some of the major applications of this typology to contemporary practice, notably to Soviet experience. Clarification and systematic examination of Marx's views on the basic organizational properties of socialism in the broader context of Marx's views on economic systems, although important in its own right, can also sharpen critical understanding of debates concerning relations between the classical Marxian vision and contemporary practice.     

A unified beta pricing theory

This paper derives Ross's mutual fund separation theory and a new, equilibrium version of Ross's arbitrage pricing theory as special cases of a general theory. The paper also reveals that the two theories are identical in their predictions of asset prices and portfolio returns. The capital asset pricing model (a restricted case of the mutual fund separation theory) receives special treatment.     

Japan's technological strategy

While it is well established that borrowed technology has played an important role in Japan's economic development, the nature of this process needs further clarification. This paper deals with the catching-up hypothesis: that a technological gap between Japan and other industrial countries (primarily the United States) emerged during World War II, but has been narrowing since then. Making a distinction between absorptive and creative R and D, we show that Japan's technological strategy emphasized the former while allowing the gap in the latter to remain.     

Social choice and telling the truth

This paper presents a straightforward proof of Gibbard's theorem that any non-manipulable choice rule with at least three outcomes is dictatorial. The proof is similar to proofs of Arrow's impossibility theorem, but does not rely on that theorem. The last part of the paper discusses the relation between Gibbard's and Arrow's theorems. The paper contains no new result, and is intended to make this important area of social choice theory accessible to a wider audience.     

Sensitivity of optimal programs with respect to changes in target stocks: The case of irreversible investment

Consider an aggregative model of economic growth with changing technology and tastes, in which investment is irreversible. It is shown that initial decisions in finite-horizon optimal programs are insensitive to changes in terminal stocks, provided the horizon is long enough. This generalizes Brock's result, which was proved assuming investment to be reversible. The irreversibility constraint does not allow one to follow Brock's method of proof, using the dual (Shadow Price) properties of optimal programs. An alternative method of proof is developed, using a primal approach, and exploiting dynamic programming arguments.     

Feles: The functionalized extended linear expenditure system: Theory,estimation procedures and application to individual household consumption expenditures involving socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics

This article introduces the Functionalized Extended Linear Expenditure System, FELES, a new extension on Lluch's familiar Extended Linear Expenditure System. Household individual expenditures with respect to ‘subsistence expenditures’ and ‘partial marginal propensities to consume’ are made explicitly dependent on socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics in a system-wide approach. A restricted maximum likelihood estimator for relatively small systems with few explanatory variables and an iterative estimation procedure for larger systems with an extensive set of explanatory variables are proposed. The complete FELES then is applied to cross-sectional data with more than 47,000 German households. Stone's LES and Lluch's ELES are first quantified too on a German data base of this extent.     

Economic theory and comparative economic systems: A partial literature survey

This paper surveys the more abstract literature on the newly developing theory of economic systems. Works from both pure economic theory and comparative economics are discussed. The principal thesis is that, while these two literatures have developed rather independently, they share an amazingly similar framework. What is emerging is a full-fledged theory of economic systems. Emphasis is placed on the three component structures of economic systems—the information, decision-making, and incentive structures–and the normative evaluation of economic systems. J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1978, 2(4), pp. 355–381. Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 024,053.     

The Boserup theory of agricultural growth: a model for anthropological economics

Ester Boserup's challenging counter-Malthusian theory of growth of primitive agriculture is formalized in a continuous time framework that permits investigation of the long-run properties of such a closed economy. It is discovered that from any initial conditions there are two asymmetric outcomes that are possible. The implications of the theory are further extended to Karl Polanyi's now classic argument concerning structural transformation as an economic system makes the transition from feudalism to capitalism and to Walter Rodney's claims about the origins of African underdevelopment.     

Schumpeter and the theory of capitalist economic development

This paper gives a centenary appreciation of the contributions to economic thought of Joseph A. Schumpeter, with special focus on his work, The Theory of Economic Development (TED) it proceeds, first, by providing (in section 1) an overview of Schumpeter's life and works; second, by giving an interpretative exposition of the main themes of TED (in section 2) and Schumpeter's broader ‘economic sociology’ (in section 3) in terms of the place of these ideas in the history of economic thought; third, by examining the reception to TED and the impact of it and Schumpeter's dynamic methodology on the discipline (in section 4).     

Controllability and the theory of economic policy: A critical view

It is argued in this paper that the concept of controllability in spite of its intuitive appeal is of limited interest for the theory of economic policy. Controllability implies that a given target can be attained even if the number of instruments is less than the number of independent targets. But there is no guarantee that the economy will be able to stay there. Tirbergen's rule is concerned with the existence of a static equilibrium solution. The controllability concept is concerned with the existence of a dynamic path towards it. But it does not imply that controllability is a dynamic generalization of Tinbergen's rule.     

Consistent conjectures and voluntary contributions to public goods: why the conventional theory does not work

The conventional theory of voluntary contributions to public goods assumes that each person maximises his utility taking other people's behaviour as given (Nash conjectures). It is now coming to be recognised that this theory is inconsistent with observed behaviour. This paper argues that the problems of the theory are compounded — and not, as some economists have argued, resolved — by relaxing the assumption of Nash conjectures. If individuals' conjectures are consistent, each person will hold the (correct) belief that other people's contributions are inversely related to his own. Under most reasonable assumptions, equilibrium is a state in which no-one contributes anything.     

Location and the comparative statics of the theory of production

This paper applies modern methods of doing comparative static analysis to the theory of the firm when location as well as input levels are the firm's choice variables. Many results are obtained including all previously known results. Moreover, it is shown that traditional results in the theory of the firm such as downward sloping derived demand curves, generalize to the location problem. New results, such as an increase in a transportation rate decreasing transportation in terms of ton-miles of an input, are also obtained. Many new symmetry conditions are also found.     

The cost and composition of Indian exports

India has a history of export promotion policies extending back into the 1950's. These policies seem to have been applied without regard to comparative advantage and this study indicates the high cost of India's disregard for economic efficiency. Using the domestic resource cost concept as the criterion for measuring relative export efficiency, the present structure of Indian exports is examined on both the sectoral and product level. The results show not only an unacceptably wide divergence in the domestic resource cost of exports on the margin - indicating a misallocation of resources in the export sector - but also an export incentive system which fails to select India's most efficient exports.     

Team work and incentives: The origins and development of the butty gang system in Queensland's sugar industry, 1891–1913

In Queensland's sugar industry, a butty gang referred to a cane-cutting team operating on a collective piece-rate basis, by which each member of the team shared equally in the joint earnings of the team according to the number of days worked. This paper combines theory and evidence to investigate the origins and development of the butty gang system in Queensland's sugar industry between 1891 and 1913. Attention is focused on the economic organization of the team, the nature of the incentives implicit in the collective piece-rate arrangement, and the determinants of the optimum size of the team.     

Global Technology Policies for Economic Growth

With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking.Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total.     

The supply-of-immigrants function and taxation of immigrant's incomes: An econometric analysis

This paper considers the derivation of the commonly estimated macro supply-of-migrants equation from a discrete choice-of-location theory, in which tastes are stochastic. This approach highlights a number of economic and econometric problems inherent in popular forms of this equation. A logit specification of the supply function of U.S. immigrants is presented, using aggregated data on applications for labor certificates rather than observed movements. A modest simulation then follows, reporting the sensitivity of migration flows, hours worked by immigrants, and tax revenues, under alternative rates of Bhagwati's proposed tax on U.S. immigrant's incomes.