污水资源化管理的市场驱动路径研究

为了研究推动污水资源化、提高污水资源化水平、创新污水资源化管理体制,提出污水资源化管理的市场驱动路径。主要研究方法是基于成本核算分析,在对现状进行归纳分析的基础上,分析再生水使用量较大的城市污水资源化的外部效益,首要考虑的是生态的补水效益、环境效益等,直接经济效益并不是考虑重点,污水资源化处理的费用绝大多数由市政负担。在对污水资源化过程中,经过成本核算,认为财力雄厚的一线和准一线城市能够负担,而广大城市难以自行负担污水资源化的费用,对于引入社会资本降低地方财政负担和工业企业负担以及推动水治理体系现代化是形成污水资源化利用长效机制的关键所在。提出政府确定产权和收益;构建再生水资产的交易机制;制定全国再生水利用目标;加强再生水利用基础设施规划与建设;合理设置再生水作为非常规水源统一配置体系的边界以及协调再生水利用与最严格水资源管理制度的衔接问题的政策建议。     

城市雨水资源化潜力及效益分析与利用模式探讨

根据我国雨水资源的利用现状,结合我国南北城市降雨特点,对城市雨水资源化进行开发潜力与效益分析,探讨了实现城市雨水资源利用的途径及模式。结果表明,科学合理的利用屋面、路面、公园或绿地等雨水集蓄利用模式,可以增加城市水资源供给及地下水补给,缓解城市水资源供需矛盾,改善城市生态环境,实现水资源的可持续利用,可产生巨大的经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益。     

污水资源化的作用与效益

水资源短缺与水环境污染是当前、也是今后困扰水资源利用和制约国民经济发展的两大问题。本文论述了我国北方地区水量短缺和工矿城镇附近水质变坏的严峻形势和废污水资源化的重要性和现实性；介绍了国内外废污水资源化的情况与典型事例；分析了废污水资源化的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益。其目的在于积极推广污水资源化的先进典型，逐步协调城市和工业的供排关系并希望引起决策部门的重视，从而促进废污水资源化这一事业的迅速发展。     

农户参与秸秆资源化利用行为的影响机理研究

基于川南四市农户参与秸秆资源化利用行为问卷调查数据,利用计划行为理论和结构方程模型构建农户参与秸秆资源化利用行为的理论模型,并分析农户参与秸秆资源化利用行为的影响因素及路径。研究结果显示,行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、利用意愿对农户参与秸秆资源化利用意愿有显著影响;利用意愿对农户参与秸秆资源化的利用行为有正向显著影响;农户的行为态度越积极、感受到社会群体压力越大、感知的可控程度越高,农户参与利用行为越显著。因此,要建全秸秆资源化利用的有效推进机制,加大秸秆资源化利用的政策支持力度,强化秸秆资源化利用技术创新和推广,发挥农村干部、农村大学生的作用。     

农业政策如何影响农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策?——基于安徽省1227个农户调查数据的实证

促进农业生产性废弃物资源化利用对推动农业生产绿色转型具有重要意义。利用安徽省1227个农户调查数据,通过理论分析与实证研究相结合,从政策认知、政策监管和政策激励视角分析农业政策对农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策的影响机制。研究发现:农业政策对农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策具有显著影响,政策认知、政策监管和政策激励都正向影响农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策;农业政策对农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策的影响存在年龄异质性;政策认知在政策监管和政策激励对农户生产性废弃物资源化利用决策中起到显著的正向调节效应。因此,文中提出加大政策宣传力度、建立政策监管长效机制、实行精准化政策激励措施等政策建议,以期为农业废弃物资源化利用政策的制定与优化提供参考。     

农民参与农作物秸秆资源化利用的受偿意愿分析*——基于安徽、山东的调研数据

[目的]农作物秸秆的资源化利用对于我国生态文明建设及农业可持续发展有着重要意义。文章旨在通过分析农民参与秸秆资源化利用的受偿意愿及其影响因素,探讨合理有效的政策激励方式,为完善秸秆资源化利用的运行机制提供参考。[方法]依据条件价值评估法,基于安徽、山东两个省份354位农民的调查数据,运用Tobit模型分析了农民参与秸秆资源化利用的受偿意愿及其影响因素。[结果]有92. 94%的受访农民愿意接受补偿;农民年龄、块均面积、当地是否有秸秆收购企业以及农民对秸秆资源化利用激励政策的了解程度对其参与秸秆资源化利用的受偿意愿具有显著的负向影响;农民对秸秆资源化利用的经济价值认知对其受偿意愿具有显著的正向影响。[结论](1)综合考虑当地经济水平、秸秆资源化利用成本以及农民受偿意愿制定补贴标准;(2)完善和落实秸秆资源化利用激励的配套政策措施;(3)创新培训与宣传方法,提高农民秸秆资源化利用知识水平及政策认知度。     

城市洪水灾害损失评估及应用

从灾害形成机制角度,建立城市洪水灾害损失评估指标体系和城市洪水灾害损失评估模型,并将该模型应用于哈尔滨城市洪水灾害损失和短期预测。结果表明,该模型能较好地评价城市洪水灾害损失情况,为洪水灾害损失做出救灾减灾辅助决策支持。     

固体废弃物资源化的现状和前瞻

固体废弃物既是有害于人类的废物。又是可供开发利用的二次资源；分析了我国固体废弃物资源化的情况，介绍了城市固体废弃物资源化的技术进展和发展趋势；提出了工业废弃物资源化的一种新技术和一种集环境、社会、经济三大效益于一体的新思路；提出了加快我国固体废弃物资源化进程的几点建议。     

江苏省秸秆资源化利用情况探析

分析了秸秆资源分布现状和资源化利用情况,总结了江苏省秸秆资源化利用存在的问题,提出了对策和建议。     

万家寨引黄入晋工程（一期）水价分析

万家寨引黄入晋工程是从黄河万家寨水利纽取水向能源基地的工业城市太原,大同和逆州供水的大型高水工程。设计年引水量12亿m^3,根据国民经济和社会发展规划及需水预测,工程分两期实施,一期建成向太原市年洪水6.4亿m^3的工程规模,设计概算总投资103．54亿人民币,按照市场经济原则和水权理论及《企业财务通则》,分析测算了工程水价和供水区综合水价,为政府的宏观管理和调控及企业的成本核算,合理水价的制订,提供了财务上的依据。     

A fine-scale spatial analytics of the assessment and mapping of buildings and population at different risk levels of urban flood

Nowadays, urban flooding is becoming a severe issue in most of the developing and developed countries. The growth of the urbanization rate is also increasing, and the United Nations (UN) projected that 68 % of the world’s population would live in urban areas by 2050. People tend to migrate from rural to urban areas, which expose them more vulnerable to urban floods. The flood-related damages and deaths are increasing every year globally. Using the Birmingham city, Alabama (AL), USA as the study area, the objective of this research is to assess potential damage risks due to flood exposure of buildings and population in an urban area. Different social and environmental factors influence urban floods in an urban area. This paper considered elevation, slope, flow accumulation, land-use, soil types, and distance from the river as significant influential factors to urban flooding. The flood risk model hence can be developed by using an integrated GIS and cartrographic approach, in which we assessed and assigned weights to these factors and formed a GIS risk assessment model, which shows the level of flood risks in the floodplain areas of Birmingham and quantifies and maps both commercial buildings, home buildings, and populations’ exposed to flooding risks. This study found that the Valley Creek area is the highest flood risk zone in Birmingham, and about 48.85 percent of Valley Creek’s floodplain area will face very high flood risk. The findings further reveal that total number of 5602 people are living in high and very high flood risk zones in Birmingham that approximates 44.04 % of the total population in this floodplain area. The physical vulnerability is also assessed, and findings suggest that the Valley Creek zone has the highest percentage of residential (i.e., 56.14 %) and commercial (i.e., 75.34 %) buildings located in very high flood risk areas. Our study providing a GIS risk assessment approach to locating and mapping the areas, buildings, and populations from the most to the least at risks with a fine spatical scale for urban flood risk management. The numbers of vulnerable buildings and populations within each risk category are quantified and their distributions are mapped. Therefore, revealing population’s and buildings’ risks and their geographic information, this flood risk assessment can help local governments and communities prepare better to take actions against future urban flood events in Birmingham, and this integrated GIS and cartographic analysis for fine flooding assessments can be applied to other urban areas for flood mitigation and risk management.     

湄公河流域洪旱灾害损失分析

受海洋气候及气候变化的影响,湄公河流域洪旱灾害频发。澜湄合作及中国-东盟合作机制是我国发展周边外交的重要内容。搜集整理近几十年来湄公河流域洪旱灾害事件资料,分析了流域洪旱灾害损失情况、成因及影响因素,结果表明:洪旱灾害是湄公河流域的主要灾害形式,流域4国洪水发生次数占总自然灾害次数的50%左右;洪旱灾害对流域各国的人口、交通、农业、经济等方面的影响均比较显著;气候变化是引起湄公河流域洪旱灾害的主要原因。     

基于改进DIIM的洪涝灾害下供应链系统中断关联型损失评估研究

为解决暴雨洪涝灾害频发对企业生产和整条供应链的运行带来的巨额经济损失问题,在考虑供应链系统相互关联的基础上,运用改进的动态非正常程度投入产出模型(DIIM)模拟洪涝灾害导致企业非正常程度的动态运行状态,测算洪涝灾害给供应链系统带来的直接损失及关联损失。以2021年马来西亚洪涝灾害影响下的某制造业供应链系统为例,选取相关指标对洪涝灾害导致供应链系统中断带来的关联型损失进行评估。结果表明:洪涝灾害引发的供应链各节点功能下降程度由需求端和供应端两方干扰共同影响,非正常程度和损失都是一个动态变化的过程;仿真数据直观显示了洪涝灾害下供应链中断发生、扩散及恢复过程,有助于决策者对洪涝灾害下供应链系统运行进行分析和管理。     

论明清时期苏北里下河自然环境的变迁

明清时期，黄、淮洪水屡屡倾泻苏北里下河。水走沙停，里下河地区的河湖港汉日趋淤塞，并最终导致射阳湖的消失。里下河自然环境亦因此而完成了从泻湖到平畴的巨大变迁，而自然环境的变迁又进一步加剧了水灾的肆虐性。水灾与自然环境变迁交相作用，将里下河引入赤贫的深渊。     

Who responds more to environmental amenities and dis-amenities?

It is hypothesised that different property sub-markets react to flood risk information, floods and environmental factors differently. To test this hypothesis this research uses spatial quantile regression and quasi-experimental techniques to examine property sub-market behaviour in response to availability of flood risk information and actual flood. This new contribution to the literature is based on the use of the mapping of flood risk areas in 2009 and the 2011 flooding of Brisbane, Australia, as a case study. The results show that the impact of flood risk and actual flood on property markets varies between different sub-markets. They therefore confirm the existence of property sub-markets based on property and environmental characteristics and suggest the need for differentiate mitigation policies.     

Switzerland’s transition from flood defence to flood-adapted land use–A policy coordination perspective

This contribution examines Switzerland’s shift towards integrated flood risk management from a policy coordination perspective. The study applies a heuristic framework of policy coordination to explore how adaption needs promoted cross-sectoral policy coordination between hydraulic engineering and land use planning and enhanced coherence in flood policies targeting extreme flood events. To account for the temporal dimension in policy coordination, the article traces Swiss flood policies back to the early 1800s and distinguishes four phases of policy coordination. Across the four periods, the analysis focuses on (a) the drivers of policy coordination, (b) the manifestation of policy coordination in terms of policy frames, goals, instruments and subsystem involvement, and (c) the performance of policy coordination. Complemented by an in-depth case study of cross-sectoral flood policies in the Swiss canton Nidwalden findings show that the coordination between flood and land use policies has primarily been driven by three factors: (i) extreme floods as focusing events, (ii) an increasing problem pressure, and (iii) strategic reorientations in flood and land use policies. Today, flood risk management in Switzerland displays a high degree of sectoral interplay between hydraulic engineering and spatial planning. By fostering flood-adapted land uses Switzerland’s coordinated flood policies reduce the vulnerability to uncertain future changes in flood risk and strengthen the country’s capacities to mitigate damage in extreme floods events.     

金华市城市雨水资源化利用研究

目前我国大部分城市均存在不同程度的水环境污染和水资源短缺问题,由于城市地形和气候特征原因导致汛期的洪涝灾害时常发生。与此同时,大量雨水没有科学和合理的利用。以金华市为例,通过对金华市雨水利用的技术、经济与生态环境现状的分析,并结合国内外的雨水资源利用实例,提出了针对金华市降雨特点的雨水利用的途径和相应措施,为缓解金华市水资源短缺问题提供指导。     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估——以南京、武汉和成都为例

在全球气候变暖和海平面上升的背景下,随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市系统面临洪涝灾害的风险形势也更加严峻。构建长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型,采用熵权法确定权重,运用模糊集对分析法判断样本所属等级,对南京、武汉和成都的城市洪涝脆弱性进行评估。结果表明:2012—2016年,南京市平均洪涝脆弱度最低,受低人口密度、建成区高绿化率以及较高经济密度作用,洪涝脆弱性整体呈下降趋势;武汉市平均洪涝脆弱度最高,由于人口密度过高、建成区绿化率过低导致洪涝脆弱性呈现恶化态势;成都市平均洪涝脆弱度位于中等,受人口密度下降、经济密度和排水管道密度上升的影响,洪涝脆弱性呈下降趋势;提出了大力发展当地经济、合理调整城市化速度、兴修排水基本设施等降低长江经济带城市洪涝脆弱性的建议。     

基于随机森林算法的洪水灾害风险评估研究

根据流域灾害系统理论,在考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体的基础上,选取9个风险评价指标,运用样本数据进行人工识别风险并得到训练样本,采用随机森林算法构建基于随机森林的洪水灾害风险评估模型。然后采用随机森林自评估工具,分析建立的洪水灾害风险评估模型的误差和指标,同时构建支持向量机模型作为对比方案,并采用五折交叉验证方法对基于随机森林算法的洪水灾害风险评估模型和支持向量机模型进行验证。最后以海河流域邱庄段为研究对象,分别运用基于随机森林算法的洪水灾害风险评估模型和基于支持向量机模型对相同的数据集进行评估和对比,结果显示,12 h内降雨总量、洪水持续时间和土壤含水量是引发洪水的主要因素,而基于随机森林算法的洪水灾害风险评估的训练精度及测试精度均高于支持向量机模型。